Description
of the scale of the phenomenon. Estimated number of illegal
immigrants to the EU so far this year, compared with last year and
the recent past.
More
than a million migrants and refugees crossed into Europe in 2015,
sparking a crisis as countries struggle to cope with the influx, and
creating division in the EU over how best to deal with resettling
people. The symbolic milestone was
passed on 21 December,
the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said, with the
total for land and sea reaching more than 1,006,000. The figure
covers entries via six European Union nations - Greece, Bulgaria,
Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus. The vast majority arrived by sea but
about 34,000 made their way over land via Turkey.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911
Excellent summary
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/08/these-4-maps-might-change-how-you-think-about-migration-in-europe/
This
compares with 72,437 illegal immigrants to the EU in 2012, 107,365 in
2013 and 283,532 In 2014. However, 1,000,000 represents only 0.2% of
the EU’s population of 500 million.
In
January and February 2016, over 123,000 migrants landed in Greece,
compared to about 4,600 in the same period of 2015. In March,
following the closing of the Balkan route by Macedonia and the entry
into force of the EU-Turkey deal on 20 March, the number of migrants
arriving in Greece dropped to 26,460, less than half the figure
recorded in February. Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis continued to
account for the largest share of the migrants arriving in Greece.
This downward trend continued in April, when only 2,700 migrants
arrived in Greece, decreasing by 90% compared to the previous month.
Meanwhile,
due to improved weather conditions, the number of mainly African
migrants crosing the sea to Italy doubled between February and March,
reaching nearly 9,600 in March 2016, compared to 2,283 in March 2015.
In April, on the contrary, the number of migrants arriving in Italy
(8,370) dropped by 13% compared to the previous month and by 50%
compared to the same month in 2015; despite this, Italy exceeded the
totals for Greece for the first time since June 2015.On 16 April, a
shipwreck of a large boat between Libya and Italy was reported, in
which as many as 500 people may have died, in one of the worst
disasters since April 2015.
UNHCR
says that 315,928 refugees and migrants have arrived by sea so far in
2016 (to October)
So
there has been a significant rise in migration towards the EU in
recent years, increasing dramatically in the last 2 years. Is this a
temporary phenomenon or a more permanent change? The result of
turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa or something more
fundamental?
Or
course we should remember that illegal immigration happens within a
wider context of legal immigration and both are important in
examining popular reaction inside EU member states. Figures for net
legal immigration to the EU from non-EU countries were 748,026 in
2010, 693,660 in 2011, 598,352 in 2012, 539,059 in 2013, suggesting a
slight decline over that period. However Frontex estimates that there
were 547,335 people illegally
present in the EU in 2014. Many of these were from Syria, Eritrea and
Afghanistan, with citizens from these countries representing one
third of the total.
The
EU 28 received about 626,000 applications for political asylum from
non-EU citizens in 2014 compared with 431,000 in 2013. This number
rose to 942,400
in 2015 (possibly more, 1.3 million, see below).
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/08/02/number-of-refugees-to-europe-surges-to-record-1-3-million-in-2015/
EU
Member States (Austria excluded) granted protection to more than
185,000 asylum seekers in 2014
.
The
number of people residing in an EU Member State with citizenship of a
non-member country on 1 January 2015 was 19.8 million,
representing 3.9 % of the EU-28 population (while
the number of people living in the EU-28 who had been born outside of
the EU was 34.3 million).
In addition, there were 15.3 million persons living in one of the EU
Member States on 1 January 2015 with the citizenship of another
EU Member State.
In
absolute terms, the largest numbers of non-nationals living in the EU
Member States on 1 January 2015 were found in Germany (7.5
million persons), the United Kingdom (5.4 million), Italy (5.0
million), Spain (4.5 million) and France (4.4 million). Non-nationals
in these five Member States collectively represented 76 % of the
total number of non-nationals living in all of the EU Member States,
while the same five Member States had a 63 % share of the
EU-28’s population.
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/01/15/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/
We
also need to bear in mind both the size and degree of effective
integration of existing immigrant populations.
Most
of the arrivals between January and October 2015 (perhaps more than
60% according to the EU) were asylum-seekers from countries like
Syria, Afghanistan and Eritrea torn apart by war, oppression and
extremism rather than those simply fleeing poverty.
The
number of refugees coming to the EU is, of course, low if compared
with the numbers of Syrian refugees arriving in Turkey, Lebanon and
Jordan and, poorer countries facing far more serious problems in
dealing with the huge numbers involved - Turkey 2.73 million, Lebanon
1.03 million and Jordam 0.66 million.
There
are also high levels of South-South migration 8legal and illegal) in
many other developing countries.
And
we should not confuse migration by non-EU citizens into the EU with
fully legal internal EU migration, from one member state to residence
in another member state. See again:
Many
EU states have residents from other EU states who form a significant
and often well-integrated proportion of the total migrant population.
The
number of Italian citizens resident in four EU countries, the UK,
France, Germany and Spain totals more than a million.
See
again:
However,
internal EU migration from poorer (e.g. Romania) to richer countries,
has already produced serious frictions that may add to tensions
between migrants of all kinds and native residents. Xenophobic
reactions take various forms. There are accusation that foreigners
steal local jobs at a time of recession and obtain welfare payments
that they have not contributed to in taxes. Statistically, this seems
largely a false impression as foreigners often do jobs that the local
population does not want to do and often fail to claim welfare
benefits to which they are entitled. However, these concerns about
internal EU migration could be dwarfed by non-EU immigration in terms
of scale, duration and the social tensions produced if numbers
continue to rise at current rates.
What
problems is the EU facing as a result of illegal migration?
a)
The humanitarian crisis regarding migrants who are trying to get
here. Human smuggling (and trafficking), massive human rights
violation and the responsibility to respond to this crisis. Deaths at
sea and in container ships.
b)
The rising numbers are beyond the capacity and funding of existing
infrastructure (e.g. reception centres) and personnel (e.g. coast
guard, police, frontier and migration authorities, interviewers
interpreters etc…) and the procedures to deal with the migrants
(identification, interviewing, temporary accommodation, repatriation
if not accepted and more permanent relocation, accommodation and
integration if accepted.
c)
Migrants coming into the EU often cross internal EU borders to move
to their preferred destination (often in Northern Europe). This
creates tensions between EU member states and has led to growing
restrictions by states on free movement within the EU and thus an
erosion of the Schengen rules.
d)
Countries on front-line EU external borders* e.g. Italy, Greece,
Spain, Romania, Bulgaria etc.. have been criticized for not securing
their borders by providing effective controls against illegal
immigration. This criticism has come from destination countries like
Germany, the UK, France, and Scandinavia. These countries, in their
turn, are criticized by the countries on the exposed external EU
borders for failing to provide adequate economic and material
assistance to their partners to help them deal with the problem. For
example, Operazione Mare Nostrum in 2013-14, financed at great
expense (9 million euros a month for 12 months) and almost
exclusively by Italy, was relatively successful compared with the EU
Operation
Triton
(originally called Frontex Plus) and financed at only 3 million euros
a month (although a further 13.7 million euros was made available in
February 2015). Mare Nostrum operated also in international waters,
Triton‘s mission only covers border control and activity within 30
miles off the Italian coast. However, the European
Union Naval Force Mediterranean
also known as Operation Sophia should make the situation more
manageable in international waters.
*
obviously in a certain sense all countries with ports and container
ports are on the front line.
e)
Public opinion in many EU countries. There has been a wave of real
sympathy for the plight of the migrants on their journey, outrage at
their inhuman exploitation by traffickers and horror at their
sometimes gruesome fate. This has been expressed in the generous
reaction of governments, NGOs and the public.
At
the same time there is a growing concern among EU citizens about the
rise in immigrant numbers, increasing opposition to this process,
fears about cultural clashes, growing numbers of acts of violence
against immigrants and refugee centers and a significant rise in
support for xenophobic, or at least more nationalist, political
parties. Criticism of the EU itself, which is often blamed and held
responsible for the rise in migrant numbers, has also increased,
though it is hard to see how leaving the EU would benefit a country
in terms of dealing with illegal non-EU immigration.
e.g.
in the Brexit vote Lord
Ashcroft's mega-poll
of 12,369 voters after
the referendum found that one third of Leave voters chose to back
Brexit as they saw it "offered the best chance for the UK to
regain control over immigration and its own borders." This was
the second biggest motivation for Leave voters, just behind “the
principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”.
Meanwhile
Hungary decided in July 2016 it would hold
a referendum in October on
whether to comply with the European Union quota system aimed at
solving the migrant crisis, setting the stage for a fresh fight over
power-sharing in the 28-nation bloc . The Hungarian referendum has
worried some in Brussels, who fear that
a series of national votes on specific issues could unfasten key
planks of EU policy and rules. Senior EU officials have worried that
further referendums— above all on a country’s EU membership—could
lead to an eventual unraveling of the bloc.
In
addition to the
June 23 British referendum,
Dutch voters also rejected
a sweeping EU trade and political agreement
with Ukraine in April, potentially forcing the bloc to renegotiate
the accord.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hungary-sets-date-for-vote-on-settling-migrants-1467707714
f)
With the terrorist attacks in Paris on November 13th
2015 (and further attacks through 2016), there is growing concern
that Arab terrorists may manage to get into Europe by pretending to
be refugees. There is also concern about border security regarding
European citizens who sympathize with IS and go to Syria possibly to
train and try to return to Europe to carry out an attack.
g)
The reaction of the EU is often criticized as slow and lacking
coordination while EU member states are criticized as too preoccupied
with their own national interests. The atmosphere at the EU talks to
agree and introduce the quota system among members to deal with the
ongoing crisis was an example of these problems. So is the debate
about whether or not to suspend the Schengen agreement for 2 years.
agreement:
Schengen
h)
the EU- Turkey deal on refugees and migrants
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/20/eu-refugee-deal-turkey-condemned-council-of-europe
What
are the problems for the future?
a)
Beyond the immediate crisis there is the question of whether the
scale of the phenomenon is temporary, e.g. due to refugees from the
civil war in Syria and the situation in Libya, or part of a growing
trend towards movement from non-EU states to the EU based on hopes
for greater economic well-being and more security and freedom.
b)
The need to quickly and effectively integrate those migrants who are
allowed to stay into our society. Many experts argue that many states
in the EU with aging populations need migrants as a young and
flexible workforce. Others point to the failures in previous
integration policies.
c)There
is a need to support efforts for pacification and peace-building in
the war-torn areas from which the refugees are fleeing. Current
efforts (see below) to form a single effective government in Libya
and enforce the rule of law by reaching an agreement between all
legitimate groups are crucial in any attempt to limit the spread of
ISIS and deal with the humanitarian and refugee crisis in Libya at
its source.
See
also below #
d)
There is also a need to provide more funds to UN agencies and NGOs in
countries like Syria’s neighbors, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, which
are trying to deal with the enormous refugee problem.
e)
Whatever public resentment there may be about perceived threats to
jobs, at a time of recession and unemployment, and the nation’s
‘culture’, immigrant numbers remain a limited proportion of the
population. It is only in certain areas with sudden, high immigrant
concentrations (Lampedusa) that a community may feel overwhelmed and
this calls, above all, for better planning and organization in the
redistribution of recently arrived migrants.
f)
Although most of the EU economies are either still in recession or
growing only slowly, the EU’s population generally is aging and
young migrants may play an important and necessary role in the
economy if and when the recovery begins.
g)
The humanitarian crisis is unlikely to go away soon. So the EU and
national governments will have to respond to public concerns about
immigration while at the same time honoring their legal and moral
obligations to deal with the question by providing
better-coordinated, better-funded plans on a long-term basis. So far
this has not happened.
h)
How to deal with asylum seekers who are successful in their
application (where should they reside?) and those who are not. See
below § Dealing with asylum seekers
i)
The idea and effectiveness of using military force against the human
traffickers.
j)
The question of whether or not to suspend the Schengen agreement for
2 years.
k)
the deal with Turkey and questions about human rights and whether it
is legal
and
in the light of the crack-down after the attempted coup
Some
useful background reading and updates
#
Skhirat, Morocco: On the 13 September 2015 the UN special envoy for
Libya, Bernardino Leon, announced that there was consensus on most
of the main issues for an agreement to form a government of national
unity. He hoped to get a deal for national pacification and economic
recovery by the deadline of 20 September.
(The
rising influence of the Islamic State extremist group and Libya's
emergence as a smuggling hub for migrants risking their lives to
cross the Mediterranean had added urgency to the long-running and
often derailed UN talks.)
A
Libyan national unity government was announced by the UN after months
of negotiations on
October 09th 2015
and The Government of National Accord was formed 17 December 2015
Whether
this government is strong enough to achieve real unity, to take back
power from military factions and defeat Islamic State remains
doubtful.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/19/libya-unveils-un-backed-government-but-divisions-remain
also: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/libya-unity-government-160119093015333.html
http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2015/12/175396/inter-libyan-political-agreement-signed-in-morocco/
but:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35351878
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/africa/23511-can-the-new-un-backed-government-solve-libyas-problems
§ Dealing with Asylum-seekers
See Granting Asylum in:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911
but also this article which explains why a migrant refused asylum is not necessarily sent homehttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34190359
also relevant:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_quarterly_report
http://www.france24.com/en/20160128-sweden-expel-80000-failed-asylum-seekers-migrants-refugees-europe
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/08/eu-governments-call-for-faster-deportations-of-failed-asylum-seekers
also: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/libya-unity-government-160119093015333.html
http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2015/12/175396/inter-libyan-political-agreement-signed-in-morocco/
but:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35351878
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/africa/23511-can-the-new-un-backed-government-solve-libyas-problems
§ Dealing with Asylum-seekers
See Granting Asylum in:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911
but also this article which explains why a migrant refused asylum is not necessarily sent homehttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34190359
also relevant:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_quarterly_report
http://www.france24.com/en/20160128-sweden-expel-80000-failed-asylum-seekers-migrants-refugees-europe
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/08/eu-governments-call-for-faster-deportations-of-failed-asylum-seekers
EU
okays use of force against human traffickers
http://www.politico.eu/article/libya-traffickers-migrants-mogherini-uno/
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/4402-eu-approves-use-of-force-against-trafficking-boats-in-international-waters-2
Naval
mission will be operative by early October
2015
(ANSA)
- Brussels, September 14, 2015 - The European Union's 28 member
States on Monday gave official approval for the launch of "phase
two" of the EuNavFor Med naval mission, including the use of
force against human traffickers in the Mediterranean if necessary.
The proposal was approved 'without debate' by the General Affairs
Council. The mission is expected to be operative by early October.
The naval mission, launched after calls from Italy for more
assistance from the EU in dealing with the migrant emergency,
features the active hunting down and arrest of human traffickers and
the confiscation or destruction of boats.
See
also:
http://www.marina.difesa.it/cosa-facciamo/operazioni-in-corso/Pagine/EUNAVFORMED.aspx
http://www.difesa.it/OperazioniMilitari/op_intern_corso/eunavfor_med/Pagine/default.aspx
http://eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and-operations/eunavfor-med/index_en.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Navfor_Med
and UN too
UE
pronta alla forza contro gli scafisti
14/09/2015
L’Unione
Europea ha autorizzato l’uso della forza militare nelle missioni
contro gli scafisti nel Mediterraneo: il via libera dovrebbe scattare
a inizio ottobre e permetterà alle navi della forza Ue di fermare,
perquisire e dirottare le imbarcazioni sospettate di trasportare
migranti. I ministri dell’Interno dell’Ue hanno anche raggiunto
l’accordo politico per distribuire 160 mila rifugiati in due anni
(cifra che comprende le due misure proposte da Bruxelles da maggio ad
oggi per distribuire 40 mila e 120 mila persone). Ieri i Ventotto
hanno dato il via libera al primo piano di redistribuzione dei
profughi, i primi 40 mila richiedenti asilo approdati in Italia e
Grecia che andranno negli altri Paesi dell’Unione. La ripartizione
per Paesi degli altri 120 mila si concretizzerà nel Consiglio del
prossimo 8 ottobre. Il programma approvato riguarderà le persone con
chiara necessità di protezione internazionale. I Paesi che
partecipano al meccanismo riceveranno 6 mila euro per ciascuna
persona ricollocata. Si è raggiunto anche l’accordo sugli hotspot,
i centri di identificazione e registrazione. All’Italia si chiede
di realizzare sei centri di registrazione, il primo ad essere
operativo dovrebbe essere a Lampedusa. Il ministro Alfano ha chiesto
che sia l’Unione europea a farsi carico di “svuotare” gli
hotspot: «Il rimpatrio non è una responsabilità solo nazionale, ma
anche europea», e chiede dunque all’Ue di «farsene carico non
solo da un punto di vista economico» ma anche politico: «È
l’Europa che deve firmare gli accordi di rimpatrio con i Paesi
africani».
Controlli
alle frontiere
Di
fronte all’afflusso massiccio di migranti, si moltiplicano i Paesi
che ripristinano controlli temporanei alle frontiere usando la deroga
prevista dagli accordi di Schengen: dopo l’annuncio della Germania,
è stata la volta di Austria e Slovacchia che hanno deciso di tornare
a richiedere i documenti ai valichi di confine. L’Olanda aumenterà
i controlli a campione, la Polonia ha preannunciato che li farà e la
Francia ha preannunciato che è pronta, se necessario, a ripristinare
i controlli con l’Italia. Anche Polonia e Repubblica Ceca hanno
annunciato di star valutando le misure da prendere alla frontiera. La
Germania - che ieri ha aggiornato le stime dicendo di attendersi
nell’anno circa un milione di profughi - intanto ha riaperto il
traffico ferroviario con l’Austria e a sua volta quest’ultima ha
ripreso a far entrare i migranti dall’Ungheria. La quale ha sua
volta completa in queste ore l’ultimo tratto della barriera al
confine serbo, mentre la polizia ungherese ha bloccato il principale
punto di transito dei migranti.
However,
the situation in 2016 remains grim
“The
mission does not, however, in any meaningful way deter the flow of
migrants,
disrupt the smugglers’ networks, or impede the business of people
smuggling on the central Mediterranean route. The arrests that
Operation Sophia has made to date have been of low-level targets,
while the destruction of vessels has simply caused the smugglers to
shift from using wooden boats to rubber dinghies, which are even more
unsafe. There are also significant limits to the intelligence that
can be collected about onshore smuggling networks from the high seas.
There is therefore little prospect of Operation Sophia overturning
the business model of people smuggling.The weakness of the Libyan
state has been a key factor underlying the exceptional rate of
irregular migration on the central Mediterranean route in recent
years. While plans for two further phases would see Operation Sophia
acting in Libyan territorial waters and onshore, we are not confident
that the new Libyan Government of National Accord will be in a
position to work closely with the EU and its Member States any time
soon.In other words, however valuable as a search and rescue mission,
Operation Sophia does not, and we argue, cannot, deliver its mandate.
It responds to symptoms, not causes.”
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