Some background information
Europe
https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251591/population-growth-rate-in-europe/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/253383/total-population-of-the-eu-member-states-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate
Demographic growth and climate change
https://www.un.org/en/desa/population-growth-environmental-degradation-and-climate-change
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYAiAAEgL1kfD_BwE
Read this on water scarcity.
https://healingwaters.org/how-does-population-growth-affect-water-scarcity/
https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/mod/oucontent/view.php?id=79927§ion=6.1
Demographic data
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/food-security-climate-change-feast-famine enough to make one despair! “The world will need to produce about 70% more food by
2050 to feed an estimated 9 billion people”, according
to the World Bank in 2014 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/land-and-food-security1
56% more
(compared with 2010) in a lower estimate in 2018, but still huge (World
Resources Institute)
https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts
and now
according to the FAO in December 2025
In 2024, an estimated 673 million
people experienced hunger, and many regions continue to grapple with severe and
recurrent food emergencies. These pressures will intensify as the global
population approaches 9.7 billion by 2050, requiring agriculture
to produce 50 percent more food, feed and fibre than in 2012, alongside 25
percent more freshwater
and according ti the World Bank
in December 2025
Agricultural expansion is
responsible for nearly 90 percent of global deforestation, with cropland growth
and pasture expansion infringing on forests.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
background
https://www.wfp.org/publications/hunger-hotspots-fao-wfp-early-warnings-acute-food-insecurity
A great presentation, though perhaps over-optimistic, by Prof. Hans
Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E
an opposing view:
So is the
world overpopulated?
The current
world population on 19 February 2026 is estimated to be between 8.17 and 8.27 billion
and continues to rise. http://www.census.gov/popclock/
It reached 6 billion 25 years ago in
October 1999 and 7 billion in October 2011 according to the United Nations
Population Fund.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Today's
world population is more than double the population in1973 (3.9 billion). http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
World
population is estimated to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and, peaking at 10.4
billion in the mid-2080s and then levelling off and falling to 10.2 - 10.3
billion by 2100. See the video with Hans Rosling above.
https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population
In 1900 the
world’s population was only 1.6 billion, a little less than a fifth of today’s
total.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
TOP 20 MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES (2026)
|
Country |
Population
2026 |
Yearly
Change |
Urban Pop
% |
World
Share |
|
|
1 |
1,476,625,576 |
0.87% |
37.6% |
17.79% |
|
|
2 |
1,412,914,089 |
−0.22% |
68.7% |
17.02% |
|
|
3 |
349,035,494 |
0.51% |
83.1% |
4.20% |
|
|
4 |
287,886,782 |
0.76% |
60.3% |
3.47% |
|
|
5 |
259,299,791 |
1.6% |
34.7% |
3.12% |
|
|
6 |
242,431,832 |
2.06% |
55.8% |
2.92% |
|
|
7 |
213,562,666 |
0.35% |
91.7% |
2.57% |
|
|
8 |
177,818,044 |
1.21% |
43.2% |
2.14% |
|
|
9 |
143,394,458 |
−0.42% |
75.4% |
1.73% |
|
|
10 |
138,902,185 |
2.53% |
22.9% |
1.67% |
|
|
11 |
132,997,658 |
0.8% |
88.3% |
1.60% |
|
|
12 |
122,427,731 |
−0.55% |
93.4% |
1.47% |
|
|
13 |
120,101,175 |
1.47% |
41.1% |
1.45% |
|
|
14 |
117,724,471 |
0.8% |
49.9% |
1.42% |
|
|
15 |
116,452,162 |
3.21% |
45.4% |
1.40% |
|
|
16 |
102,177,431 |
0.57% |
42.2% |
1.23% |
|
|
17 |
93,168,497 |
0.81% |
73.5% |
1.12% |
|
|
18 |
87,926,082 |
0.27% |
77.5% |
1.06% |
|
|
19 |
83,644,258 |
−0.51% |
77% |
1.01% |
|
|
20 |
72,563,780 |
2.86% |
40.8% |
0.87% |
For the latest update and further data:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
For a list
of the countries with the fastest population growth rates see:
https://statranker.org/population/top-10-fastest-growing-populations-2025/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/
Are there
now too many human beings?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation
There
is the concept of ‘global population overshoot’ which means that the growth in
human population is going beyond the planet’s ability to replenish itself in
terms of resources and a sustainable environment. Some environmental experts
have argued for an upper limit to sustainable human population, with a range of
figures, from 2-3 billion to 7-8 billion. Others argue that it is a problem of
the distribution of resources and the management of the levels and types of
consumption.
https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days/
https://unric.org/en/environment-2-august-overshoot-day-for-earths-resources/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_population
The scientific
consensus is that the current population
expansion and the accompanying increase in our use of the
world’s resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was
ratified by 58 member national
academies back in 1994, called the growth in human
numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the
time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and optimistic scenarios
predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a figure that current estimates show
has already been passed. The rapid growth in global population thus has
dramatic direct consequences for the number of people in the developing world
(particularly in poor countries in Asia and Africa) who already face or may
soon face starvation, hunger or malnutrition as well as serious consequences
for sustainable global development (given the ultimately finite nature of
fossil fuel reserves and raw materials such as minerals, chemicals and rare
metals) and a range of environmental issues. Though the percentage of people
living in extreme poverty fell up to 2019, the percentage living in relative
poverty remained high. Moreover, a large number of people were living just
above the poverty threshold and were therefore at risk in the event of
environmental or natural disasters and price variations. And with Covid-19 this
is exactly what has happened.
Situation in
2025:
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/
Then click
on goal 1, 2 , 3 and 4
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/goal-01/
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/Goal-02/
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/goal-03/
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/goal-04/
https://populationmatters.org/un-sdgs/
https://www.developmentaid.org/news-stream/post/163665/population-growth-and-sustainable-development
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/goal-of-the-month-goal-2-zero-hunger/
https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/
The UN checks on SDG
progress annually, with last year’s report (2025) reflecting both hope and
concern.So with less than 5 years left to
2030
It finds that while millions of
lives have improved through progress in health, education, energy and digital
access, the change is still not fast enough to fully reach the SDGs by 2030.
Only 18% of SDGs are on track, with another 17% showing moderate progress.
Nearly half are progressing too slowly, and close to a fifth are even
regressing in a volatile environment marked by conflicts, climate change,
geopolitical tension and economic flux.
The
overview on poverty according to the World Bank (October 2024)
Global
poverty reduction has slowed to a near standstill, with 2020-2030 set to be a
lost decade. At the current pace of progress, it could take more than a century
to eradicate poverty as it is defined for nearly half the world.
44
percent of the global population – around 3.5 billion people – live today on
less than $6.85 per day, the poverty line relevant for upper-middle-income
countries. The total number of people living under this poverty line has barely
changed since 1990 due to population growth.
8.5
percent of the global population – almost 700 million people – live today on
less than $2.15 per day, the extreme poverty line relevant for low-income
countries. Three-quarters of all people in extreme poverty live in Sub-Saharan
Africa or in fragile and conflict-affected countries.
About
72 percent of the world’s extreme poor live in countries that are eligible to
receive assistance from the International Development Association (IDA). Today,
one in three IDA countries are poorer, on average, than they were on the eve of
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Progress
on shared prosperity has stalled since the pandemic, due to slow economic
growth and a divergence in mean incomes. Today, incomes around the world, on
average, would have to increase five-fold to reach the level of $25 per person
per day, the minimum prosperity standard for high-income countries.
Around
one-fifth of the world’s population lives in economies with high inequality,
concentrated mostly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Only 7 percent of
the global population lives in countries with low inequality.
In
half of IDA countries, the income gap with the wealthiest economies is widening
for the first time this century. Of the 68 IDA countries with data on
inequality, less than 15 percent were in the low-inequality group and more than
37 percent were in the high inequality group.
Climate
change poses a fundamental risk to poverty and inequality reduction. Nearly 1
in 5 people globally are likely to experience a severe weather shock in their
lifetime from which they will struggle to recover.
Climate
change also threatens to increase global inequality, as poorer countries and
people are likely to suffer more from the negative consequences.
The current overview on poverty according to the World
Bank (October 2025)
From 1990 to 2025, the
total number of people worldwide living in extreme poverty declined from around
2.3 billion to around 831 million. The sharp decline over this period was
largely driven by robust, broad-based economic growth in East Asia and South Asia.
Over the last decade,
however, global poverty reduction has slowed substantially. This slowdown is
due to a combination of interconnected crises, including sluggish economic
growth, high levels of debt, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict and
fragility, and severe weather-related shocks.
These overlapping crises
have hit low-income countries the hardest. At the current pace of progress, it
could take decades to eradicate extreme poverty.
In 2025, an
estimated 831 million
people were living in extreme poverty, each trying to survive on less
than $3 per day.
Extreme poverty has become
increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, and places affected by
conflict and fragility.
Although a necessary
condition, economic growth is not enough to break the cycle of poverty.
Stronger foundational investments in infrastructure, human capital, and
institutions are critical to ensure people can climb the socioeconomic ladder
and escape extreme poverty.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty
Recent
Background
Before the Covid-19
pandemic the situation was already precarious
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/poor-diets-damaging-childrens-health-worldwide-warns-unicef
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2019-07/holy-see-un-hunger-report-2019-arellano.html
the Covid-19
pandemic, measured in terms of its effects on the SDGs in October 2021 according
to the World Bank:
‘For
almost 25 years, extreme poverty — the first of the world’s Sustainable
Development Goals — was steadily declining.
Now, for
the first time in a generation, the quest to end
poverty has suffered a setback.
Global
extreme poverty rose in 2020 for the first time in over 20 years as
the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic compounded the forces of conflict and
climate change, which were already slowing poverty reduction progress. About 100 million additional people
are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic.
In 2018,
four out of five people below the international poverty line lived in rural
areas.
·
Half of the poor are children. Women
represent a majority of the poor in most regions and among some age groups.
About 70 percent of the global poor aged 15 and older have no schooling or only
some basic education.
·
Almost half of poor people in Sub-Saharan
Africa live in just five countries: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar.
·
More than 40 percent of the global poor
live in economies affected by fragility, conflict and violence, and that number
is expected to rise to 67 percent in the next decade. Those economies have just 10 percent of
the world’s population.
·
About 132 million of the global poor live
in areas with high flood risk.
Many
people who had barely escaped extreme poverty could be forced back into it by
the convergence of COVID-19, conflict, and climate change.
The
"new poor" probably will:
·
Be more urban than the chronic poor.
·
Be more engaged in informal services and
manufacturing and less in agriculture.
·
Live in congested urban settings and work
in the sectors most affected by lockdowns and mobility restrictions.
Middle-income
countries such as India and Nigeria will be significantly affected;
middle-income countries may be home to about 80 percent of the new poor.
New
research estimates that climate change will drive 68 million to 132 million
into poverty by 2030. Climate change is a particularly acute threat for
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — the regions where most of the
global poor are concentrated. In a number of countries, a large share of
the poor live in areas that are both affected by conflict and facing high
exposure to floods — for example, Nepal, Cameroon, Liberia, and the
Central African Republic.
The newest
and most immediate threat to poverty reduction, COVID-19, has unleashed a
worldwide economic disaster whose shock waves continue to spread. Without an
adequate global response, the cumulative effects of the pandemic and its
economic fallout, armed conflict, and climate change will exact high human and
economic costs well into the future.
The latest
research suggests that the effects of the current crisis will almost certainly
be felt in most countries through 2030. Under these conditions, the goal of
bringing the global absolute poverty rate to less than 3 percent by 2030, which
was already at risk before the crisis, is now beyond reach without swift,
significant, and substantial policy action.
History
shows that urgent and collective action can help us tackle this crisis.’ October
2021 according to the World Bank
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/coronavirus
https://feature.undp.org/covid-19-and-the-sdgs/
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-covid-19-12-charts
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/
Covid-19 and
food security
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/
Look at the
graph at the bottom of this page. http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/covid-19-and-global-food-security
climate
change and food security
climate
change evidence: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
basic facts: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf
before 2020: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-fragile-climate-food.html
and looking forward:
‘COVID-19 caused food
insecurity to soar, but climate change will be much worse.’
http://www.fao.org/climate-change/en/
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
climate
change and how it affects farming:
https://www.heifer.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-agriculture.html
Demographic
growth and food production
In December
2018 the World Resources Institute estimated that the world must sustainably
produce 56% more food by 2050 based on 2010 levels https://www.wri.org/insights/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts
‘Feeding 10 billion people sustainably by 2050, then,
requires closing three gaps:
A 56 percent food gap between crop calories produced in
2010 and those needed in 2050 under “business as usual” growth;
A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly
twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and
expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and
An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected
agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global
warming below 2oC (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the
worst climate impacts’.
In 2011 the FAO had
estimated that the increase needed was 70% on 2009 levels of food production https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty
Thus, many
experts argue that given current population growth forecasts for the developing
world we will need another leap forward in terms of innovation in farming
technology and practices, like the Green Revolution of the 1960s, simply in
order to avoid widespread famine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution (also
includes criticisms)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug (often credited with saving over a billion
people worldwide from starvation).
However,
there are fears because increased food production has come at the price of
limited crop variety and biodiversity and has involved an increased use of
pesticides and more pollution. The growing use of agricultural mono-cultures
may not be sustainable in the long term.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/food-system-monocultures-gm-un-diversity-day
https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/rise-and-fall-monoculture-farming
food scarcity, loss and redistribution,
water security
https://awellfedworld.org/scarcity-vs-distribution/
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-agriculture/en/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_security
https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/
https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/climate-change/
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYAiAAEgL1kfD_BwE Read this on water scarcity!
Climate
change and its impact on global food production
https://it.usembassy.gov/how-climate-change-affects-the-food-crisis/
The
impact of increased food production on biodiversity
https://proveg.org/news/how-food-systems-impact-biodiversity-a-crucial-link/
Meanwhile a
different trend is affecting many parts of the developed world, low fertility
rates and an ageing population.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_ageing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy
https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/italy-population-zero/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/demography-2024
The economic
effects of an ageing population are varied and there may be some benefits for
economies which are expanding. For example, older people often have higher
accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age
ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in
lower interest rates and the economic
benefits of lower inflation. Moreover, if the population falls and GDP remains
constant or grows at a very low rate, (e.g. 0.2 % a year) per capita income actually
increases in the short term. Some economists, mainly in Japan, see further
advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity for progress in automation
and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a
need for a shift from concern about GDP growth to the idea of personal
well-being.
However, given the recent economic slowdown in many developed economies (and
the effects and costs of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the
consequent rise in energy prices and inflation) none of the factors above are
likely in the short term to help economies characterized by low levels of
consumer spending and high youth unemployment. Moreover, population ageing also increases some categories of
expenditure, including some of those met from public finances. The largest area
of expenditure in many countries is now health care, the cost of which is likely to increase
dramatically as the population ages. This would present
governments with hard choices between higher taxes,
including a possible shift from taxes on earnings to taxes on consumption, and
a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education
and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population as there will be
fewer people in school. The numbers of NEETs (young people, aged 15-29, not in education, employment or training) is
also growing to high levels in southern Europe.
Combined with high emigration rates of young
people, both qualified and unqualified, from Italy this presents rather a
worrying scenario and means that immigration policy must be carefully
calibrated.
https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/DEMOGRAPHIC-INDICATORS_YEAR-2024.pdf
https://www.etk.fi/en/the-pension-system/international-comparison/retirement-ages/
Italy seems to be aiming to encourage immigration of skilled non-EU
workers while containing immigration by unskilled workers.
Social security systems have also begun to
experience problems. Predefined benefit pension systems are
experiencing sustainability problems due to increased longevity. The extension
of the pension period by people living longer has not been matched by a rise in
pension contributions and has only been partly matched by an extension of the
active labour period (a rise in the retirement age), resulting in a decline in replacement
ratios. In recent years, many countries have adopted policies to strengthen the
financial sustainability of pension systems, although the challenges regarding
pension adequacy remain. One solution in favour of social solidarity might be a
flat-rate pension (or nearly flat-rate) for all, regardless of (or with little
regard for) the level of pension contributions made. Another is simply to raise the age
at which one receives a pension on people born later. This is what is happening
in many European countries. Those
who prefer the free market may argue for the gradual abolition of public
pension schemes in favour of the private sector, thus reducing the burden to
the state.
Population growth in developing
countries also increases migration
flows, pressure on the allocation of scarce resources within the country and
geographic area and the loss of biodiversity. See:
https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/blog/population-growth-is-drivin.html
https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology/Migration
https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/58952/file/ICMPD_Migration_Outlook_2023.pdf
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2022/08/01/in-developed-countries-migration-is-now-the-primary-driver-of-population-growth_5992145_23.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hotspots-population-growth-areas-high-biodiversity See also the notes on this blog
regarding the EU and migration. Though many migrants are refugees seeking
political asylum, others are economic or climate migrants moving to escape
poverty, the threat of starvation or simply to find better job opportunities. Many
are described now as ‘environmental refugees’.
See also
older material like:
The New
Population Bomb, Jack A. Goldstone, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb
2010
https://www.sneps.net/t/MSc/images/Articles/10Goldstone%20pop%20bomb.pdf
Against the
Grain, C. F. Runge and C. P. Runge, Foreign Affairs Volume
89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010
http://relooney.com/NS4053/0_NS4053_825.pdf
The
Demographic Future, Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign
Affairs Volume 89, No.6, Nov/Dec 2010 http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/68690e7b35d02ba894dda06bcdf415dc/dc_the_demographic_future_eberstadt_foreignaffairs_novdez_2010.pdf
Baby Gap, Stephen
Philip Kramer, Foreign Affairs Volume 91, No.3, May/June 2012
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/baby-gap
How will
current population trends affect international relations?
Some ideas for an essay:
Size of
current world population and forecasts for the future / rate of growth, current
trends and the predicted slow-down in rate of growth but only stabilizing in
2100 / statistics on number of those starving or suffering from malnutrition,
and the number of people now at risk of starvation or malnutrition in the near
future. Look at the situation before the Covid-19 pandemic, since then and
how it is evolving today.
Growing
pressure on world’s resources and environment / food / water / shelter /
medical care / finite reserves of fossil fuels and raw materials / the need for
recycling on a much larger scale / deforestation / desertification / land, air
and sea pollution / urbanization / destruction of rural habitat / endangered
wildlife and reduced biodiversity / an increase in carbon and other emissions
/climate change / examples and statistics? / the difficulty of asking poor
countries to make sacrifices in terms of greener policies
Problems for
poor countries with high population growth rates / you could look at all the
above-mentioned factors but at a local level by focusing on the statistics
and information for one country or area in Africa or Asia e.g. the Horn of
Africa.
As of early 2026, the Horn of Africa
(comprising Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti) continues to face a
challenging landscape characterized by rapid population growth, high youth
unemployment, and vulnerability to climate and conflict shocks.
Population Growth (2026)
Rapid Growth: The region remains one of the
fastest-growing in Africa, with urban populations in the broader East Africa
region expanding at approximately 5% per year.
Demographic Pressure: Africa's overall population
grew by roughly 35 million in 2025, with a 2025/2026 growth rate of over 2.2%.
The Horn of Africa specifically is characterized by a very young population,
with a median age under 20, creating high demand for education and jobs.
Displacement: The region is a major hub for
forced displacement, hosting over 8.5 million forcibly displaced people,
including 2.5 million refugees and asylum seekers, as of late 2025.
Unemployment and Labor Market (2026)
High Youth Unemployment: Chronic unemployment and
limited public services continue to define the region's economic life. High
youth unemployment and poverty (with over 60% of Ethiopians living on less than
$2 per day) are key drivers of migration along the eastern and southern routes.
Labor Force Growth: The working-age population in
sub-Saharan Africa is poised to double between 2025 and 2050.
Informal Sector Dominance: Due to slow formal job
creation, the majority of employment in the region remains in the informal
sector.
Country-Specific Trends:
Ethiopia: Faces high pressure to create
jobs for a large, young, and poor population, with structural reforms aiming to
shift from agriculture to broader economic participation.
Djibouti: Faces a "dual" labor
market, with high unemployment despite a relatively successful, but unbalanced,
port-driven economy.
Somalia: Experiences very low
participation rates, extreme gender gaps in employment, and requires a focus on
self-employment and basic skill acquisition.
Economic Outlook (2026)
Growth Potential: While the region is fragile,
East Africa continues to show strong growth momentum.
External Factors: The 2026 outlook is heavily
influenced by high food prices, regional conflicts (e.g., in Sudan and
Ethiopia), and the ongoing impact of the longest drought in 40 years, which has
driven massive food insecurity.
https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/regions/africa/
Challenges
for developing countries – At the moment we produce enough
food globally to feed the world’s population. The problem is the use of much of
this food as fodder for animals in meat production, the unequal distribution in
the production of food resources between rich and poor countries and the lack
of infrastructure in developing countries to allow the effective delivery of
food from other regions in normal times, or from outside the country in terms
of emergency aid at a time of crisis.
/unemployment
and underemployment (difficulty of creating jobs as quickly as the population
grows), large disparities in the distribution of wealth leading to political
unrest (and often repression by authoritarian regimes) with poor, stagnant or
worsening living conditions and political instability - provide examples and
statistics for any of these, e.g. North Africa?
/ an
increase in migration flows from / the country to the city / poor,
overpopulated countries to other slightly less poor, more stable countries / to
wealthier ones e. g. to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states / to North America /
to Europe / remittances sent back home / examples and data for all or any of
these.
/ as we have
now seen, a greater likelihood of the spread of epidemic diseases and the
danger of a pandemic as more people and goods circulate / the interplay of the
Covid-19 pandemic with these different trends.
/ and high fertility
rates threaten to trap many developing nations in poverty https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/oped/editorial/wake-up-to-challenge-of-population-growth-4455202
Challenges for
many rich countries – ageing populations / so without
migrants or raising the retirement age further, there will be a reduction in
the workforce, and without continuous technological development and greater
automation there will be a fall in GDP / growing pressure on welfare systems,
in particular on the health care system and the social security and pension
system / burden carried by those in work / countries with declining population
levels and low growth rates may see a similar decline in their influence on
world affairs / immigration and cultural diversity can lead to social conflict
instead of harmony and cultural enrichment / problems of acceptance and
integration /education/ security / terrorism / the interplay of the Covid-19
pandemic with these different issues.
The real and
wider problem for the international community is the need for coordinated
cooperation strategies in which all states agree to take part (and to honour
their commitments) in order to overcome a series of long-term challenges which
now seem to be interrelated (as set out in the UN's SDGs):
1) Dealing effectively with
environmental degradation and pollution, protecting wildlife and biodiversity
(any successful examples?)
2) Regulating carbon emissions (and other
shorter-lived atmospheric pollutants) and slowing climate change (describe the
current situation) and reducing pollution due to plastics
3) Avoiding competition for
scarce resources like clean water and food and agreeing a more equitable
distribution / avoiding wasting these resources / examples, the water of the
Nile and the countries of North-East Africa / avoiding competition for fossil
fuel reserves and scarce raw materials and rare earths
4) Regulating migration, protecting the rights
of migrants and fostering integration, while enhancing security and
counter-terrorism
5) Rapidly developing
alternative, greener, cleaner and renewable sources of energy (preferably not
bio-mass sources like ethanol which may reduce the food supply) and reducing
waste by using our resources more intelligently.
6) Increasing and diversifying
food production.
In 2025, the United States produced approximately one-third
(roughly 31%–33%) of the world’s corn and over one-quarter
(roughly 28%) of its soybeans. Critics note that a significant
portion—roughly 35% to over 40%—of U.S. corn is used for ethanol production,
while around 30 low-income countries were classified as food-deficit nations
facing severe food insecurity.
. How is increasing
and diversifying food production to be achieved? Would better redistribution of resources
be enough or do we need some kind of agricultural/technological revolution?
There is a
debate about the safety of GMOs (genetically modified organisms) to increase
food production and the need for another Green Revolution or something similar,
also but fears about agricultural monocultures. Better information could be
made available to small-scale farmers through the Global Open Data for Agriculture and
Nutrition IT project.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Open_Data_for_Agriculture_and_Nutrition
https://www.britannica.com/procon/GMOs-debate
8) The need
to recognise the Covid-19 pandemic as a global challenge and to be prepared for
similar challenges in the future and to cooperate to respond to such events
effectively.
The need to
see healthcare as a global concern in an age of global migration.
https://www.projecthope.org/news-stories/story/6-health-issues-were-watching-in-2026/
9)
Encouraging sex education and voluntary birth control, although this is
controversial for some countries and cultures. Point out the dangers of China’s
former one-child policy (female infanticide), now abandoned in favour of a
two-child policy (Oct. 2015) and India’s 1970s’ voluntary sterilization policy
(the poor are more likely to volunteer if there are cash incentives and this is
a form of discrimination).
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/4/10-083329/en/
https://populationmatters.org/news/2022/11/indias-coercive-population-policies/
10) More
importantly, the UN stresses that we should promote and support female primary,
secondary school and higher education and their entrance into the work force in
countries with a rapidly rising population, since the biggest single factors in
reducing fertility rates seem to be education and the empowerment of women.
https://iiasa.ac.at/news/nov-2024/womens-education-influences-fertility-rates-in-sub-saharan-africa
http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data
In the absence of successful diplomacy leading
to an agreed international approach to these problems, one could expect to see
growing competition for limited resources, conflicts resulting directly from
such competition, mass migrations and policies regarding global challenges
decided on an inadequate, ad hoc, nation by nation basis. In such a scenario we
may all end up as losers, but those most at risk in terms of food, health and
economic security and basic living conditions will be the first victims.
https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/climate-change-turns-african-rivers-epicentres-conflict
https://www.iai.it/en/publications/c05/nile-river-dispute-fostering-human-security-approach#:~:text=A%20human%20security%2Dcentred%20approach,possible%20compromise%20with%20other%20riparian
https://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/omovalley
As Sustainable Development Goal 17 makes clear, in
order to deal with the problems caused or made worse by population trends a
global partnership will be necessary.
https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal17 Read this carefully.
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2024/Goal-17/
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2025/Goal-17/
