martedì 17 marzo 2026
mercoledì 11 marzo 2026
Italy and the Middle East
As of 11 March 2026, Italy has maintained much of its
diplomatic presence across the Middle East, though several embassies have
operated with reduced staff, specialized "Gulf Task Force" support,
or temporary, security-related closures due to heightened regional tensions.
Based on information from the Italian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs (Farnesina) and active notices, the following key embassies
remain operational, with a focus on facilitating the departure of Italian
nationals:
- Israel
(Tel Aviv): Remained active, though it
experienced temporary closures for emergency security reasons in early
March 2026.
- Lebanon
(Beirut): The embassy remains fully
operational to assist nationals, despite staff reductions.
- Iraq
(Baghdad): Operational, but staff numbers
have been reduced for security reasons.
- Syria
(Damascus): Italy has reopened its embassy,
with a focus on long-term regional stability.
- UAE
(Abu Dhabi & Dubai): Active;
additional staff were deployed to these offices to assist with
evacuations.
- Saudi
Arabia (Riyadh & Jeddah): Operational,
but a rare "avoid travel" warning was issued for the capital and
Eastern Province in March 2026.
- Other
locations: Embassies in Amman (Jordan),
Muscat (Oman), Kuwait City (Kuwait), and Doha (Qatar) are also listed as
part of the operational network.
However.
on 6 March, The Italian government decided, "for security reasons,"
to "temporarily close" its embassy in Tehran and transfer all
diplomatic personnel to Baku, Azerbaijan,
Key Operational Statuses
- "Gulf
Task Force": Established to assist
Italians in the region.
- Consular
Services: While physical offices have
experienced temporary closures (e.g., Tel Aviv on March 2-3), assistance
is being provided via mobile teams and the digital FAST-IT platform.
- Evacuations: A
significant repatriation operation (approx. 25,000 citizens) has been carried
out primarily facilitated through UAE, Oman, and Qatar.
Note: The situation is highly fluid and,
as indicated in early March 2026, specific offices may temporarily close or
restrict access based on immediate security condition
As of 11 March 2026, Italy is actively deploying and
reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East, primarily focused
on defensive air defense assistance to Gulf states and naval
protection for Cyprus, while explicitly ruling out direct involvement in
offensive operations against Iran.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that Italy is
coordinating with European allies to provide defensive assets, motivated by the
need to protect approximately 2,000 Italian troops already in the region and
tens of thousands of Italian citizens, following a sharp rise in regional
tensions.
Key Deployments and Operations (as of 11
March 2026):
- Air
Defense in the Gulf: Italy is deploying
advanced air defense systems (including potential SAMP/T batteries) to
Gulf nations to counter drone and missile threats.
- Naval
Presence in Cyprus: A naval unit is being
dispatched to the vicinity of Cyprus to bolster security and protect the
European partner from regional strikes.
- UNIFIL
(Lebanon): Over 1,000 Italian soldiers
remain in southern Lebanon as part of the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission.
- Maritime
Security: Italian naval units, such as
the frigate Virginio Fasan, are active in the Red Sea/Horn of
Africa area, operating under national mandates (Mediterraneo Sicuro)
rather than direct US command. The guided-missile frigate Federico
Martinengo was deployed from Taranto to the
Cyprus area to bolster security alongside European allies in response to
heightened tensions and Iranian-backed threats. It is participating in a
coordinated mission with France, Spain, and the Netherlands. It has
joined the naval group escorting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle,
which is currently operating in the area.
·
Operation Aspides:
European leaders are assessing whether the EU naval operation Aspides,
currently deployed in the Red Sea, could be used to support naval escorts
- Non-belligerent: Meloni
emphasized, "Italy is not at war with anyone and will not be at war
with anyone," aiming to avoid a third front in the ongoing regional
conflict.
- Resource
Constraints: Defense Minister Guido Crosetto
noted that Italian defense capabilities are heavily strained due to
ongoing support for Ukraine and existing commitments, making new
deployments "delicate".
- Evacuation
Readiness: The Italian government has
prepared contingency to evacuate personnel if necessary.
·
The Lobito Corridor Project
The Lobito Corridor railway project is a
transformative, US- and EU-backed infrastructure initiative developing a ~1,300
km, open-access, transcontinental rail line from Angola’s Port of Lobito to the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia. Aimed at boosting critical
mineral exports (copper/cobalt), it will drastically reduce transit times to
under a week, transforming logistics for central Africa. Connecting Zambia's
copper belt to Angola's Atlantic coast, it is scheduled to begin construction
in the third or fourth quarter of 2026
Key Aspects of the Project:
- Infrastructure
Scope: Rehabilitating the existing
Benguela railway in Angola and constructing new, greenfield lines
extending into Zambia and the DRC's mining heartland.
- Partnerships
& Funding: Supported by the US
PGI and EU Global Gateway, with over $750 million in loans
secured, including funding from the U.S. International Development Finance
Corporation.
- Economic
Impact: Aims to export up to 1 million
tonnes of material annually by 2030, bypassing congested eastern ports,
and creating jobs in logistics and agriculture.
- Strategic
Goal: The corridor is designed to provide a
faster, Western-backed alternative for transporting critical minerals for
the global green energy transition, competing with existing
Chinese-influenced routes.
The project, which includes the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) consortium, is essential for
diversifying supply chains for critical raw materials (CRMs)
The Lobito Corridor will provide a major
transcontinental trade route linking Angola’s Atlantic coast to the DRC and
Zambia, with over 1,300 km of railway rehabilitation underway, backed by a $753
million financing package secured in early 2026. Key progress includes the
Lobito Atlantic Railway taking over operations, expected to reduce transit
times from weeks to just one week.
Key Progress and Developments (as of early
2026):
- Infrastructure
& Rail: The Lobito
Atlantic Railway (LAR) consortium is rehabilitating the Benguela
railway, with 1,300 km of track connecting the Port of Lobito to Luau
(Angola/DRC border).
- Financing: A
$753 million financing package was finalized in early 2026, featuring $553
million from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)
and $200 million from the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA).
- Expansion
& Logistics: A new Greenfield Rail Line
Feasibility Study is exploring extending the line through Zambia. The
project aims to reduce freight transit times from over a month to one
week.
- Economic
Impact: The initiative is designed to
facilitate the export of critical raw materials (copper, cobalt) from the
DRC and Zambia to global markets.
- Challenges: The
project faces significant local concerns regarding land rights, with
thousands in the DRC potentially facing eviction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobito_Corridor
https://www.lobitocorridorzambia.com/
https://afripoli.org/a-game-changer-in-flux-recent-developments-and-risks-in-the-lobito-corridor
domenica 8 marzo 2026
What are the main challenges for the Sahel? How should the EU respond?
The Sahel faces a compounded, rapidly growing crisis driven by intense armed conflict, extreme poverty, and severe climate change impacts. Over 33 million people need humanitarian aid due to jihadist violence, weak governance, food insecurity, and displacement, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. As of early 2026, these countries in the Central Sahel region, often referred to as the Alliance of Sahel States or AES) are facing a "red alert" situation, with escalating, multi-layered crises threatening state collapse. The region is considered one of the most neglected and conflict-ridden in the world, marked by a convergence of terrorism, military coups, extreme poverty, and climate change. The region is defined by a deeply interconnected web of security, environmental, and humanitarian crises, with the Central Sahel serving as the global epicenter of violent extremism. The region faces an unprecedented, worsening crisis, characterized by a "toxic mix" of armed conflict, governance failures, and climate change that has displaced millions
Main Challenges in the Sahel:
Security and Conflict: A
surge in terrorism and violence from armed groups, leading to the rise of
military regimes and, in some areas, a collapse of state authority.
Climate Change and Environmental
Degradation: The region is highly vulnerable to
drought, desertification, and flooding, which ruin livelihoods dependent on
farming and pastoralism.
Humanitarian and Food Crisis: High
levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and a massive displacement crisis with
over 3.7 million internally displaced people.
Political Instability and Governance: Widespread
corruption, weak state presence, and a series of coups d'état (e.g., Mali,
Burkina Faso, Niger) have created instability and increased human rights
violations.
Development and Demographic Pressure: Intense
poverty, limited education and job opportunities, and rapid population growth
create high demand for services the state cannot provide and an easy
environment for the recruiting of boys and young men to jihadist groups and
other military factions.
These factors are deeply intertwined, with climate
change fueling competition for resources, which then triggers conflict and
exacerbates the humanitarian emergency. The European Union needs to work out an
effective response to contain and manage the growing challenges to its southern
flank that are rooted in the Sahel.
Italy and the Sahel:
As of early 2026, Italy has positioned itself as a key, and increasingly
solitary, European actor in the Sahel, aiming to maintain a security and
diplomatic presence following the withdrawal of other European forces. Italy
continues to operate a small military mission in Niger, navigating the
challenging political landscape following the 2023 coup. Through the Mattei
Plan and a "new look" foreign policy, Rome is seeking to anchor
European influence in Africa, focusing on managing migration and countering Russian
and Chinese influence. Italy is thus prioritizing diplomatic, economic, and
security initiatives in the Sahel to manage migration routes as part of the
Mattei Plan, which entered its third year of implementation. The Italian
government, viewing migration from the region as a "structural
reality" rather than a temporary crisis, is actively engaging with African
nations through high-level summits, investment in local infrastructure, and
security partnerships to deter departures.
The EU and the Sahel:
The Sahel remains key to European security due to interlinked threats –
terrorism and its spillover into neighbouring countries, and organised crime
networks controlling lucrative drug and human trafficking routes to Europe.
Heightened international competition for influence and access to the region’s
mineral wealth should also caution the EU against complete disengagement. Ties
with long-standing partners such as Russia, China and Türkiye have deepened ,
while the retreat of European countries following the wave of military
takeovers created space and opened opportunities for new actors, like Iran and
India, to engage with the countries of the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES).
Anti-Western sentiment and strategic hedging have thus led to the diversification
of partnerships under the banner of ‘multipolarity’. But external actors
interpret multipolarity according to their respective agendas, while leaders of
the AES prioritise sovereignty and multi-alignment. Experts argue that the EU
should respond by pursuing targeted, interest-based cooperation on energy and
mining, alongside efforts to counter transnational terrorism and organised
crime. It should also engage more selectively in key civilian domains,
prioritising education and cooperation with civil society.
Conclusion:
The situation continues to evolve. Some commentators argue that based on
intelligence and strategic assessments for 2026, the Sahel region presents a
critical, compound danger to European security. The confluence of intensified
terrorism, Russian influence, and migration pressures is creating a
"perfect storm" that poses a direct, long-term threat to European.
Italy’s 2026 Intelligence Annual Report describes a rapidly deteriorating
security environment stretching from the Sahel to the Gulf. The escalation
around Iran now confirms many of the report’s
warnings — turning what analysts call the “Arc of
Crises” into a direct strategic concern for Europe and Italy.
https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/multi-aligned-sahel-reframing-eus-role-crowded-region
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel
https://www.alliance-sahel.org/en/news/sahel-climate-change-challenges/
https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/multi-aligned-sahel-reframing-eus-role-crowded-region
https://www.stimson.org/2026/the-mediterranean-north-africa-the-sahel-a-single-strategic-system/
https://decode39.com/13722/on-board-the-mattei-plan-italys-bid-to-anchor-europe-in-africa-and-india/
https://www.iai.it/en/publications/c05/mattei-plan-after-addis-ababa-italy-africa-summit
What are the main challenges facing North Africa 15 years after the Arab springs?
North Africa faces a complex set of interconnected challenges, primarily centered on severe climate-induced water scarcity, high youth unemployment, and food insecurity. These are compounded by political instability in Libya, geopolitical tensions (notably between Algeria and Morocco), high debt levels, and the ongoing struggle to manage migration flows, all of which threaten long-term socioeconomic stability. Thus economic pressures, including high debt, unemployment, and youth discontent, are mounting alongside security risks from regional instability, such as in Libya and the Sahel.
Some of the key challenges facing North
Africa
Authoritarianism: In North Africa authoritarianism
has proven robust and it remains one of the world's most repressive regions,
characterized by a resurgence of authoritarianism following the 2011 Arab
Spring. Regimes across Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia have solidified control
through military-backed rule and a crackdown on civil society, limiting
political rights and civil liberties. Regimes are increasingly using
"digital authoritarianism," including internet shutdowns and digital
surveillance, to suppress dissent. Tunisia, which once seemed to be moving
towards democracy, has now transformed into a personalist though fragile
authoritarianism.
https://www.dw.com/en/tunisians-call-for-the-fall-of-authoritarian-regime/a-73420151
https://democratic-erosion.org/2026/02/14/stealth-authoritarianism-in-tunisia/
Climate Change and Environmental Stress: The region
faces extreme heatwaves, desertification (with over three-quarters of the land
affected), and critical water scarcity, which directly impact agriculture, food
security, and livelihoods.
Economic Instability and Unemployment: High poverty
rates, high public debt (averaging over 60% of GDP), and high youth and female
unemployment are significant, requiring urgent economic diversification. For
example, in some North African economies such as Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco,
around 30% of young people with tertiary education are unemployed or inactive.
Geopolitical and Security Issues:
The Libyan
Crisis: Ongoing
conflict and instability in Libya create security vacuums.
https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/libya-crisis-response-plan-2025-2026
Regional
Rivalries
and Border Disputes: Tensions between Morocco and Algeria hinder
regional integration and cooperation. The unresolved conflict in Western Sahara
remains a major security concern.
https://dialogueinitiatives.org/a-step-back-for-western-sahara/
Social and Demographic Pressures: Rapid urban
growth, a high population of young people needing jobs, and a large, elderly
population placing a burden on healthcare systems.
https://themilitant.com/2025/10/10/protests-erupt-in-morocco-over-jobs-health-care-and-a-future/
Food and Energy Dependence: The region
relies heavily on food imports, making it vulnerable to global price shocks.
Migration and Security: The region
acts as a transit point for illegal immigration, contributing to complex,
non-traditional security challenges.
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/migration-trends-2025/
https://www.iai.it/en/publications/c03/north-africas-security-landscape-and-its-mediterranean-impact
These challenges are often amplified by
governance deficiencies and the need for more inclusive, sustainable
development strategies
https://carnegieendowment.org/mena-transitions/climate-change-challenges-in-north-africa
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/15-years-later-is-a-new-tunisian-revolution-possible/
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2026/country-chapters/egypt
The EU and the Maghreb https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/intertwined-destinies-how-and-why-to-redesign-eu-maghreb-relations-205748
Italy and the Maghreb https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/italys-mattei-plan-geoeconomic-projection-into-africa/#:~:text=The%20domestic%20rationale%20behind%20the,stability%20in%20Algeria%20and%20Libya.
https://north-africa.com/europes-new-migration-rules-shift-pressure-south-to-north-africa/
giovedì 5 marzo 2026
The challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa
https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/main-challenges-facing-sub-saharan-africa-2026-and-beyond
Sub-Saharan Africa faces major interconnected
challenges, driven by intense poverty—with over 40% of the population living
below the poverty line—and severe malnutrition affecting hundreds of millions. Key
issues include rapid population growth, extreme vulnerability to climate
change (droughts/floods), high debt distress, armed conflicts, critical
infrastructure gaps, high unemployment, corruption and poor governance which
hinder economic growth and cause further chronic food insecurity, leaving much
of the population in poverty and limiting development. And in a vicious circle
these in turn drive further conflict, unemployment and economic and social
instability, often leading to displacement and migration. This, as we have seen
in recent years, impacts Italy and Europe directly.
Thus, some of the main challenges facing Sub-Saharan
Africa are:
Poverty and Economic Instability: While forecasts indicate the percentage of people in extreme
poverty is slowly declining, rapid population growth means that the absolute
number of people living in extreme poverty remains high, often cited in the
range of 400 to over 460 million, depending on the exact definition of the
poverty threshold used ($1.90, $2.15, or $3.00). Moreover, 22 of the 24
"low human development" nation are located here in Sub-Saharan
Africa. High debt distress and poor infrastructure
limit economic growth. This is sometimes described as a systemic “fragility
trap”, impacting more than 460 million since, as well as those in poverty, many
more live near the poverty line. While other regions have successfully moved
millions out of deprivation, Sub–Saharan Africa now accounts for more than 75%
of the world’s extreme poor. In 2026, the World Bank projects that extreme
poverty remains highly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, with
the regional poverty rate projected to be around 43-44%, impacting nearly
7 out of 10 of the world's poor. While economic growth is expected to recover
to 4.4% in 2026-27, high inflation, rapid population growth (" the youth
bulge"), and low formal job creation (only 3 million formal jobs for 12
million youth annually) are hindering significant poverty reduction
https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/region/afr#:~:text=Expected%20per%20capita%20growth%20of,SSF
Malnutrition and Hunger: As of early 2026, the food security situation in Africa has
deteriorated further, with over 307 million people across the
continent affected by undernourishment, with the situation worsening due to
food inflationand conflict. Malnutrition is a primary cause of mortality, with
over 90% of malnutrition-related deaths involving underweight or stunted
children. Lack of infrastructure means that food sometimes cannot be
transported easily to those areas that need it.
https://www.worldvision.org/hunger-news-stories/africa-hunger-famine-facts
Climate Change and Agriculture: The region is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, with nine of
the ten most vulnerable countries located here, resulting in water scarcity,
severe drought and flooding that cripple agricultural production. These unstable
weather patterns have decimated harvests and destabilized food security in
countries like Zimbabwe and Malawi. In 2026, climate change in Africa is aggressively
reshaping agriculture through erratic rainfall and, increased droughts, with
Southern Africa seeing up to 20% reduced maize yields. An effective response
will require adaptation and the adoptio of different crops and farming
techniques. These will require agricultural education for small-scale farmers
and government funding.
https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260214/au-theme-year-2026-call-action-safe-water-and-sanitation
Economic and Fiscal Crisis: Around 20 countries are in or at high risk of debt distress,
with rising debt service costs severely limiting development budgets. Key
countries in distress or at high risk include Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia,
Chad, Congo, Mozambique, and Sudan. High inflation (over 10%) on food and
energy prices exacerbates poverty. However, in 2025 economic growth remained
resilient at 4.1%, with a modest pickup to 4.4% in 2026. This increases
government revenue bur for poor countries this does not meet and levels of
government spending and investment needed to transform their population’s
economic situation.
Infrastructure Deficits: In fact, significant shortages in transportation, roads
electricity, and telecommunications hinder industrial productivity and market
access and progress towards economic security. The African Development Bank
(AfDB) estimates that between $130–$170 billion per year is required to fund
infrastructure development. Lack of progress is partly due to poor regulatory
frameworks and red tape but mainly to a lack of funds. The EU’s Global Gateway
and Chinese investment could improve the situation but projects and funding
will depend on political stability and the business environment (corruption and
bureaucracy).
Health and Infrastructure: Weak healthcare systems due to a lack of funding, transport
systems and staff coupled with diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, impact both
life expectancy and productivity. High poverty levels, reliance on familial
support, and limited access to these healthcare systems create, with high
fertility and mortality rates in some areas, create further social strain. Official
Development Assistance to Africa has meanwhile declined by 70% over past four
years.
Rapid Population Growth: High birth rates thus put overwhelming pressure on the
limited financial resources of Africa’s poorest countries, on their limited infrastructure,
and the ability of parents to provide, contributing to malnutrition and
poverty. Recent cuts in international funding for aid programs worsen the
situation.
https://www.afd.fr/en/news/sub-saharan-africa-faces-persistent-demographic-challenges
Unemployment and Demographic Shifts: Thus a rapidly growing, young population faces limited
access to education and a scarcity of formal jobs, with only 24% of new workers
finding wage-paying positions. Sub-Saharan Africa's unemployment rate,
estimated around 5.8%–5.9% in 2024–2025, masks a deeper crisis of
underemployment, with over 70% of youth in precarious or informal jobs. So while
overall rates are relatively low, youth unemployment is higher driven by a
rapidly growing population that will double by 2050.
Conflict and
Governance Issues: Ongoing armed conflicts and political instability, particularly
in the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and the DRC, cause displacement,
food insecurity, and political instability and hinder development. At the same
time corruption and poor governance also limit investment in health and
education and effective resource management.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/brf/africa/b209-seven-peace-and-security-priorities-africa-2026
Cuts in development assistence
and aid to Sub-Saharan Africa: Significant
cuts in US and international aid to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, stemming from
2025 policy shifts, are projected to cause severe humanitarian crises,
including increased hunger, conflict, and potential declines in health services.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces up to 28% less aid compared to previous years. Reductions
are heavily impacting HIV/AIDS programs, with a projected 50% cut in
HIV/AIDS funding.
The EU Global Gateway and Sub-Saharan
Africa: The EU Global Gateway aims to mobilize up
to €150 billion in public and private investments for Sub-Saharan
Africa between 2021 and 2027 to support green energy, digital infrastructure,
health, and education. In 2025 alone, EIB Global (part of the initiative)
deployed €3.1 billion in Africa. As of early 2026, the strategy remains focused
on sustainable investments, with 138 of 264 flagship projects dedicated to the
continent.
https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/countries/sub-saharan-africa_en
The Mattei Plan in 2026: In February 2026, as the Mattei Plan entered its third year,
Addis Ababa hosted the second Italy-Africa Summit. The Global Gateway-Mattei
Plan Summit on 20 June 2025 was perhaps the spotlight event of the year. Hosted
in Rome, the Summit was a further attempt by the government to shape the
European discourse on Africa. In terms of policy, internationalisation activities
continued, following up on the premises set out during the Italian-led G7,
positioning the country at the centre of major global initiatives such as
the Lobito Corridor, an
infrastructural project linking the Lobito port on the Angolan coast with
Zambia’s Copperbelt regions, which are particularly rich in mineral resources
and rare earths.
https://www.iai.it/it/pubblicazioni/c05/mattei-plan-after-addis-ababa-italy-africa-summit
See this video of Meloni
China and Sub-Saharan Africa: In 2026, Chinese investment in
Sub-Saharan Africa is accelerating, focusing on critical minerals, digital infrastructure (5G, AI), and green energy to support both
Chinese tech demands and African modernization. Major projects in 2026 include
extensive mining operations and technology transfers, alongside increased
economic engagement in South Africa following new 2026 trade agreements.
However, worryingly China's role as a leading financier to developing
nations has shifted over the past decade, with new loans to poorer countries
falling sharply while debt repayments continue to rise, according to analysis
released by ONE Data. This debt-trap means China has shifted from a net
provider to a net receiver.
https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/01/22/chinese-lending-africa-decline-rmb-2024/
Other sources
https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/main-challenges-facing-sub-saharan-africa-2026-and-beyond
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/125431/1/MPRA_paper_125431.pdf