English for Diplomacy: febbraio 2017

Economic Situation 2015-2016http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35261906
http://mgafrica.com/article/2016-01-07-x-things-about-africas-economy-this-year-from-flagship-world-bank-study
For a historical perspective on the problems see:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa#Economy
Background
Arab North Africa (the Maghreb and Egypt) is, or at least was until recently (until the unrest resulting from the Arab Spring), generally slightly richer than sub-Saharan Africa and faced different problems (e.g. youth unemployment and a widespread demand for change expressed through the events of the Arab Spring) while economic and social problems, apart from rising food prices, were less severe. However, with the tensions in Egypt and post-regime faction-fighting in Libya, stability in this region is now threatened and the economic situation has deteriorated (e.g. hitting oil exports from Libya and tourism in Egypt and Tunisia). This is also true, but to a greater extent, for the Sahel and Horn of Africa region (the transition area between Arab North Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa where the two cultures meet and mix) which is now struggling with the spread of radical Islamist movements. That being said, the focus of these notes is mainly sub-Saharan Africa proper, although some of what is said also applies to the Sahel and Maghreb regions.
60 years ago much of Asia was poorer than sub-Saharan Africa. There are still many poor areas in Asia, but today significant areas of Asia are richer than sub-Saharan Africa. So what went wrong in Africa? Why did sub-Saharan Africa not grow economically the way parts of Asia grew? Its colonial past is a partial but perhaps not an adequate explanation since Asia and South America also suffered from European domination and exploitation but their economies have grown more rapidly. Can this situation be changed? And is it, in fact, already changing?
One can argue the case both ways. So it may be useful to start by looking at what are traditionally seen as some of the area’s main difficulties:
1) Poverty – According to GDP (PPP) per capita statistics from the World Bank for 2015 sub-Saharan Africa is by far the poorest region of the world. In the list of states most African states are in the bottom half (by contrast, most of North Africa is in the middle range). According to the latest World Bank estimates, the share of Africans who are poor fell from 56% in 1990 to 43% in 2012. However, because of population growth many more people are poor, the report says. The most optimistic scenario shows about 330 million poor in 2012, up from about 280 million in 1990. Poverty reduction has been slowest in fragile countries, the report notes, and rural areas remain much poorer, although the urban-rural gap has narrowed. See the section below on the MDGs in Are Things Changing? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita

http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report

Thus many other problems are made much more serious because of the scale of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and a consequent lack of domestic funds to deal with the challenges. Africa as a whole represents about 3.0% of global GDP but about 16.36% of world population (1.23 billion ( Jan 2017). http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/
Africa's population is the youngest amongst all the continents; the average age in 2016 was 19.5, when the worldwide median age was 30.1.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2177.html

And population in some of the poorest countries is forecast to rise rapidly (see point 14 below). This will hold down growth in per capita income, and feeding and providing for their citizens will be a serious challenge for the countries affected:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2341084/Global-population-soar-11-billion-2100-African-population-quadruples.html
2) The most detrimental consequence of the colonial period in Africa may be the borders of many of its modern states. These reflect European colonial administrative areas and do not reflect ethnic, religious or linguistic divisions in Africa. This has led, and leads to ethnic and religious tensions, conflicts, civil wars and wars of secession. This results in internally displaced persons, refugees and migration. Though the number of conflicts and civil wars has diminished significantly in the last 15 years, about a third of sub-Saharan African countries are still involved in violent conflict, insurgencies or human rights violations by a repressive government. As a result, the rule of law is fragile in many areas.http://www.americansecurityproject.org/critical-issues-facing-africa-terrorism-war-and-political-violence/ (this doesn’t always connect)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

3) There is a serious lack of infrastructure and what there is may be in poor condition. A city on the coast of Africa is linked to the globalized economy by its position (although it may not have adequate port facilities) but, without an adequate road system, towns and rural areas inland are cut off from each other and the coast. This creates problems for international and domestic trade and also for the delivery of aid. It may help to explain why only 10.5% of Africa’s trade is with other African countries.

http://www.dw.com/en/poor-infrastructure-is-key-obstacle-to-development-in-africa/a-15264436
4) There are some failed states and failing states (i.e. on the verge of failure) where weak governments are unable to enforce the rule of law against armed bands, the product of widespread poverty and ethnic tensions (e.g. Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic).
5) Government corruption/ bribes / favoritism/ a relatively rich ruling class which is often cut off from the population and indifferent to it, and manages to take a large part of the wealth produced. There is also a lot of red-tape (bureaucracy), a legal system that does not work for the poor and a democratic deficit. Political and administrative institutions may be absent, or inefficient, or work mainly to protect the interests of the ruling elite. This is often seen as the main barrier to long-term, equitable economic and social progress. With greater democratization this may be starting to change. With the spread of multiparty democracy political leaders have begun to respond to the needs of the electorate instead of representing only the interests of the local ruling class. One example is that of allowing the national currency to exchange at a more realistic lower rate. This has benefitted farmers whose exports have become more competitive.

http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_in_africa_75_million_people_pay_bribes

6) The health challenge and mortality rates – the recent Ebola crisis, HIV/AIDS and other epidemic and common diseases such as widespread Malaria, Cholera, Tuberculosis, Yellow Fever, Sleeping Sickness, Dengue fever, Hepatitis, Onchocerciasis or “river blindness”, Meningitis, Typhoid etc.. continue to have a devastating impact in many areas of Africa. There is also the threat of starvation in some areas and the much greater threat of widespread malnutrition. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area of the world hardest hit by the combination of diseases, malnourishment and thus a weakened immune system, and the absence or scarcity of basic resources, medical care, facilities, prevention (e.g. vaccinations) as well as funds for medical care, to deal with them. Health care and nutrition education is obviously also linked to poverty and a lack of general education. People with HIV/AIDS and other debilitating diseases are often very young, so there are and will be for some time fewer healthy workers and more sick people to look after in the worst hit areas. They are often socially abandoned or shunned.http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/
In December 2013 the was an Ebola crisis which expanded rapidly and was a terrible example of the kind of health challenges Africa faces. As well as lives it also hit the economy of much of West Africa:According to the United Nations Development Group (UNDG), West Africa as a whole may lose an average of at least US$3.6 billion per year between 2014 and 2017, due to a decrease in trade, closing of borders, flight cancellations and reduced Foreign Direct Investment and tourism activity, fuelled by stigma.
This has also had an important impact on human development. The region’s per capita income is expected to fall by US$18.00 per year between 2015 and 2017. In Côte d’Ivoire, the poverty rate has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points because of Ebola, while in Senegal, the proportion of people living below the national poverty line could increase by up to 1.8 percent in 2014. In addition, food insecurity in countries such as Mali, and Guinea-Bissau is expected to increase.
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/03/12/west-african-economies-feeling-ripple-effects-of-ebola-says-un.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa
Finally on March 29, 2016, WHO terminated the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/4991931-181/two-years-later-guinea-declared
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033
7) In the opinion of some experts In Africa there is an over-dependence on aid from the international community, UN, NGOs, bilateral agreements etc…, a kind of culture of dependence instead of a situation where countries in Africa gradually acquire the means to deal with their problems themselves. Is there something wrong with the way aid is delivered?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22270164
8) Africa’s economies are generally based too narrowly on a limited number of commodities, both agricultural products and raw materials. Thus they are particularly subject to price fluctuations on the international market. Much of the area’s recent growth may have been a result of rising commodity prices and the economic problems of the last 2 years may have been due to the decline in commodity prices. As these prices now rise again growth may return, but this does not necessarily represent real economic development. Despite significant GDP growth in a number of African countries over the last decade, there has been much less growth in manufacturing, a key indicator for long-term growth (in Asia for example). For many African countries manufacturing still accounts for the same limited share of the economy as it did in the 1970s.

https://books.google.it/books?id=Dw7EBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA36&lpg=PA36&dq=Manufacturing+still+accounts+for+the+same+limited+share+of+the+economy+as+it+did+in+the+1970s.+africa&source=bl&ots=P6xpbyiCWX&sig=NxbUZotSTaSM_D-aSf3zELbUb48&hl=it&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjjo6Wsi8fRAhXL7BQKHdlvA4cQ6AEIJDAB#v=onepage&q=Manufacturing%20still%20accounts%20for%20the%20same%20limited%20share%20of%20the%20economy%20as%20it%20did%20in%20the%201970s.%20africa&f=false
There now seem to be some positive signs and these will be crucial for Africa's future.

https://www.odi.org/news/782-manufacturing-more-doubles-sub-saharan-africa-despite-fall-share-gdp-%E2%80%93-new-report

9) Some experts claim there is enormous and continuing exploitation by foreign companies with the cooperation of local elites.. However, many commentators stress instead the low level of economic activity in Africa as the fundamental problem. See GDP tables again. As mentioned above, Africa’s exports represent only 2-3% of the world’s exports ( See the 2013 Africa Competitiveness Report), but Africa has 16% of the world’s population. External investment in Africa is growing rapidly (now about $50 billion a year) but again from very low levels.
10) Many African countries have large public debts and difficulty in financing those debts. Debt cancellation by more advanced economies has helped, but not resolved the problem.
11) There is often a bad business environment for both domestic and foreign investors / high taxes /a need to pay bribes / insecurity of ownership. Changing this is a prerequisite for attracting the kind of direct foreign investment from richer countries which has been basic in achieving economic take-off in other developing countries. As a result much Western aid is now linked to 'conditionality' (See point 3 below).
12) Low GDP and thus low tax revenue also means a lack of funds for education and thus for training the next generation. Many qualified people (e.g. doctors and nurses) and skilled labor leave to go abroad where they can make more money (the brain drain). However, many send home remittances.
13) Despite advances in both education (secondary school enrolment up 50% between 2000 and 2008) and health (life expectancy up 10% in the last decade) literacy rates remain low and basic services may be limited due to bad work practices, e.g. closed schools which should be open, doctors who are largely unavailable.
14) There is the constant danger of humanitarian crises as many populations live at a subsistence level, with poor farming techniques and without food security. They are, therefore, at risk from natural disasters (drought, famine, desertification) and these may intensify with climate change. There is rapid population growth in many areas e.g. DRC, Ethiopia (32 million in 1975, 65 million in 2000, estimated 90 million in 2015), Sudan –this increases the risk of future starvation, malnutrition and the pressure on food and water resources (especially in the Horn of Africa). The total population of Africa today is estimated at 1.23 billion. This is predicted to rise to almost 2 billion by 2050.

15) Terrorism – the situation that led to the January 2013 French-OAU intervention in Mali has focused the international community’s attention on the spread of radical Islamist groups in Africa and particularly in and spreading from the Sahel region (Al-Shabaab in Somalia and recently in Kenya during the September 2013 shopping mall attack) https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257514.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westgate_shopping_mall_attack Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, Ansar al-Sharia in Libya and northern Mali, Ansar Dine and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM in northern Mali and Niger) and the need for an effective response to it. 16) Migration – The threat from terrorism, armed gangs, faction fighting, ethnic or religious persecution, dictatorial regimes, or other humanitarian crises due to natural disasters such as famine, drought, desertification and epidemic diseases may also lead to growing numbers of internally displaced persons and refugees. Other areas of the country concerned and neighboring countries may be unable to provide these people with even basic living conditions. This is also apparent with regard to the ongoing migration from rural areas to cities resulting from any of the factors listed above or from the simple hope to improve one’s living conditions. As mentioned in point 12 among the literate and qualified the attraction of better living standards in a wealthier developing country or in the developed world produces a gradual brain-drain, depriving Africa of, for example, nurses, doctors and other skilled workers. This may frustrate the work of aid agencies or government programs that financed their training. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/15/europe-migrant-tide-tragedy-africa

What can the international community do?

1) There are lots of aid programs, but there is a need to avoid duplication, waste and also a need for long-term projects for sustainable development as well as for greater and better cooperation and coordination between aid organizations.

2) China and India are investing heavily in Africa, so maybe in the future and given the recession Western aid and investment will become less important. China’s share of Africa’s trade was 15% in 2011, slightly more than that of the US, making it Africa's largest trading partner, though according to most sources not yet its largest investor. Chinese investment is aimed at obtaining supplies of raw materials for the present and future e.g. oil and metal ores. Often a Chinese company brings its own Chinese labor, so Chinese investment is not always a big boost for jobs, but it provides steady demand for Africa’s products and the Chinese company builds infrastructure like roads and this remains after the Chinese leave and can be used for other things.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201203221374.html

This is excellent: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brookings-now/posts/2014/05/8-facts-about-china-investment-in-africa

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/08/18/how-similar-is-chinese-investment-in-africa-to-the-wests/

https://qz.com/244912/the-us-cant-best-chinas-ambitions-in-africa/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/09/03/chinas-direct-investment-in-africa-reality-versus-myth/
3) Western aid is generally linked now to conditions of better governance, more respect for human rights and free and fair elections. Chinese investment so far has not been, except where China has paid for raw materials with finished goods, thus avoiding money payments to corrupt officials. On the whole, however, many commentators (and NGOs) argue that China has been willing to do business with repressive regimes and pay large bribes where necessary.

4) With the recession, despite pledges, some aid funding from developed countries is likely to be frozen or to fall.

5) Debt cancellation to foreign governments – this has been substantial but does not cover all African debt e.g. to banks rather than to government agencies.

6) African countries need to expand and diversify their economies (especially as regards manufacturing) so they are no longer dependent on aid. They need to create a better business environment for foreign and African businesses.

7) Import barriers in rich countries (e.g. the EU) against African goods need to be reduced or abolished. The last Doha round tried to make progress on this point but success has been limited.

8) Micro-credit could be a way to help people set up small business activities in Africa.

Are things changing?

However, things may finally be changing. The mobile phone revolution, with low-cost phones and services, has allowed the information and communications sectors in sub-Saharan Africa to grow rapidly (in Kenya they represent 5% of GDP). The World Bank points out that today while some development trends are becoming more positive in varius areas of sub-Saharan Africa serious challenges remain.

Below is the Overview from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview updated to Sept. 21, 2016

After slowing to 3 percent in 2015, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decelerate in 2016, to the lowest level in years, and below population growth. The sharp decline in aggregate growth reflects the challenging economic conditions in the region’s largest economies and commodity exporters—Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa—as they continue to face headwinds from lower commodity prices, tighter financing conditions, and droughts. At the same time, in over a quarter of countries, economic growth is showing signs of resilience. There is variation across countries, particularly between resource and non-resource rich countries, but overall, the region’s growth trend remains below pre-financial crisis levels. Slower growth deepens the challenge of reducing poverty. The incidence of extreme poverty has fallen (from 57% in 1990 to 43% in 2012) but remains high. Overall, growth is less poverty reducing in Africa than elsewhere.

Commodity prices are expected to remain largely below their 2011–14 peak, despite a recent pickup, reflecting the weak global recovery. Faced with growing financing needs, commodity exporters have begun to adjust, but the adjustment efforts remain insufficient. Against this backdrop, a modest rebound is foreseen in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2017-18.

Rising violence and conflicts are fueling increased forced displacement. Emerging threats in the form of trafficking, piracy, and religious extremism are causing persistent fragility in large parts of the continent. The lessons of the Ebola crisis highlight the importance of developing strong health systems and supporting regional disease surveillance and coordination. The impact of climate change is another risk facing the region. Africa is the lowest carbon-emitter, and yet suffers the most from the effects of climate change, through droughts, costal erosion and flooding.

This vulnerability to shocks increases uncertainty, which in turn raises the cost of doing business in Africa and hampers productivity and growth. Addressing these sources of vulnerability and building resilience is critical to maintain solid growth rates and sustain the progress made so far in reducing poverty and achieving the development goals. To continue to make progress on its development goals and achieve structural transformation Africa must capitalize on the significant growth opportunities.

As regards the UN Millennium Development Goals according to the 2015 Africa MDG report Africa, the results achieved are mixed “having made encouraging progress on the MDGs, African countries have the opportunity to use the newly launched Sustainable Development Goals to tackle remaining challenges and achieve a development breakthrough.
Much more work lies ahead to ensure living standards improve for all African women and men. While economic growth has been relatively strong, it has not been rapid or inclusive enough to create jobs. Similarly, many countries have managed to achieve access to primary schooling however considerable issues of quality and equity need to be addressed.

Poor implementation mechanisms and excessive reliance on development aid undermined the economic sustainability of several MDG interventions, the report adds.
Official development assistance to Africa is projected to remain low over the period 2015-2018, at an average of around US$47 billion annually”
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/mdg/mdg-reports/africa-collection.html
http://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty (click on the map of African countries)

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/04/17/remarkable-declines-in-global-poverty-but-major-challenges-remain

Despite this success, serious development challenges remain in Africa, where governance and transparency remain weak.

http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/better-global-transparency-benefits-africa-too-caroline-kende-robb-tells-the-bbc/

http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/tag/governance-and-transparency/

Although the number of women dying during pregnancy and childbirth has fallen dramatically worldwide in the last 15 years, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for two out of every three of such deaths in the world in 2015.

http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-11-12-deaths-of-women-from-pregnancy-related-causes-drops-sharply-in-25-years-in-africa-by-45

HIV infections are stabilizing but Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area worst-hit with nearly 25 million people living with HIV/AIDS.

http://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/sub-saharan-africa/overview

https://www.aids.gov/hiv-aids-basics/hiv-aids-101/global-statistics/

http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/acquired-immune-deficiency-syndrome/overview.html

As regards school enrollment real progress has been made. More students than ever were in school in 2015 but still not all, and one out of three is likely to leave school before completion. Fewer girls are enrolled than boys.

http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2015/more-students-school-still-not-all

The human and economic cost of the Ebola outbreak is discussed below.

http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/03/12/west-african-economies-feeling-ripple-effects-of-ebola-says-un.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa

Africa and Economic Development

Compared with traditional, negative views of Africa’s economic stagnation a very different interpretation of the trends in Africa began to emerge during the first decade of this century.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1326374900917/GEP12a_SSA_Regional_Annex.pdf

An interesting evaluation of the situation was offered by E. Miguel of Berkeley University, California, in ‘Africa Unleashed’, reviewed in Foreign Affairs Nov/Dec 2011. http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf

or http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
See also: http://www.amethisfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Africa-the-worlds-next-growth-frontier.pdf
Here is an extract in which Miguel explains his position:
“Although the 1990s were a disaster for sub-Saharan Africa (living standards improved in Asia while those in Africa got worse in a context of dictatorships, civil wars, failed states, the HIV/AIDS epidemic and reduced life expectancy as outlined above) prospects have changed over the last decade. In a significant number of states growth rates are now positive (not as high as those in Asia but encouraging), a majority of countries have held multiparty elections, and civic and media freedom has grown. So it is a stereotype to see the whole of Africa as underdeveloped. He argues that this is the result of 5 factors:
Expanding democratization (since the mid-1990s with the end of the Cold-War superpower tensions that distorted Africa’s development) has opened up government and increased accountability and improved governance (e.g. army officers in the Democratic Republic of Congo are now being put on trial). The voting public has higher expectations regarding what it wants from government in terms of the economy and social services.
Better economic policies have limited tax and regulatory problems that hurt both households and investors (Tanzania boosted primary school enrollment by abolishing school fees in 2000).
New technologies (especially cell phones) have increased Africa’s access to markets.
Debt reduction has freed resources for education and health care. The rapid expansion of schooling in the 1970s and 1980s is now producing results. Literacy which was 32% in Kenya in 1970 is around 90% today. Education empowers the disadvantaged, may help to promote pro-democratic and secular ideas, but definitely means that people read more, are generally better-informed, have higher expectations of government and are therefore more critical of it. women also seem to be more assertive today
Better schooling has produced both more and improved ‘human capital’, a better educated younger generation (young ‘cheetahs’ not old ‘hippos’ from the anti-colonial days) which is now producing new leaders with new energy who are open to new ideas and at ease with new technologies. Education has also improved productivity
Probably the most important factor is democratization since it seems to have a clear statistical link with economic growth. Authoritarian regimes have largely been failures economically, while 13 out of the 17 countries identified as emerging economies by Miguel have become democracies since the 1990s. In contrast democratic reform has been slow in oil-rich economies.
In the economic field Africa needs to boost investment in manufacturing and basic service industries since it has low labor costs compared with Asia where these costs are rising.”
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
(For another fairly positive interpretation of current trends see ‘Africa’s Economic Boom’ by Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler in Foreign Affairs May/June 2013)http://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/13304351/fa-mayjune2013-devarajan-fengler-africa
However, how much justification there is for Miguel’s view of current trends in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole remains debatable. The World Bank’s cautious optimism in 2014 was based on the recognition that economic growth and development in much of the area was starting from very low GDP (PPP) per capita levels compared with the rest of the world and is very uneven, so figures may be misleading. No doubt we should recognize that there is a huge range of diversity, from failed or very poor states to other states which are stable, have developed a good business environment and now have generally positive economic and social indicators. Yet when around 43% of the population still live in extreme poverty, this is still an enormous, deep-rooted problem, even in those countries growing fastest, and the situation in many areas remains at best precarious. Much of Africa still faces grinding and widespread poverty, e.g. see the statistics relating to hunger and malnutrition in Africa contained here:http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm
There has been no real widespread transformation yet from low-productivity agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and service. Moreover, per capita incomes are low, but production and, strangely, labor costs remain high, the consequence of politically motivated market distortions and corruption. Road transport costs are high, infrastructure is poor or badly maintained (leaky water pipes, power cuts). Some experts argue that public companies charge unrealistic prices (for political reasons) and this leads to little investment in the infrastructure and poor and worsening services. Africa needs to improve its human capital rapidly in order to develop but this is problematic when funds for education and health are often stolen or misused by political elites.
See also: http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SSA

With thanks to S M for the following comments on the situation in early 2016:

In 2014-15 the region was hit by an economic slowdown due mainly to the end of the commodity “super-cycle” – a price upswing of a wide variety of primary commodities – which began in 2000 and now appears to have ended. As is well-known, sub-Saharan Africa is a net exporter of oil and a large number of other primary commodities, such as copper, iron ore, gold, diamond, bauxite, uranium and platinum, as well as agricultural products, such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil and cotton: commodity exports played a key role in fuelling Africa’s post-2000 growth performance. At the beginning of 2000, rising global demand for mineral resources pushed further exploration and investment, resulting in an increase in oil and gas-production and, at the same time, contributing to the continent’s economic growth. However, Africa’s economies are characterised by low levels of economic diversification and are thus heavily dependent on their exports of raw materials and other commodities. As a result, they are exposed to the effects of price fluctuations on the markets for these goods. Consequently, the end of the commodity “super cycle”, and the sharp decline in commodity prices (oil, gas but also iron ore, cotton and copper for example) from around mid-2014 has had a huge and dramatic impact on the sub-Saharan economic system. Moreover, this negative economic trend has been coupled with (and is the result of) the recent economic slowdown experienced by some important emerging global economies which have strong economic ties with the African continent, especially China, now the continent’s main commercial partner. To give just one example, China accounts for over 40 per cent of global demand for copper, and today, as a result of its economic situation and the subsequent cuts in its investment programs, commodity corporations have suspended mining operations in many countries, such as Zambia. The commodity crisis has also highlighted the main economic weaknesses of sub-Saharan Africa: its dependence on commodity prices on the international market; the lack of growth in the very limited manufacturing sector (compare this with China), which represents a key indicator for long-term growth; and the high levels of debt faced by many African countries. Thus economic diversification appears to be the only way both to respond to the current African slowdown and to achieve more sustainable growth in the long term.

As regards political and security issues, sub-Saharan Africa is facing major threats which are closely related to the growing phenomenon of “failed states” and the consequent rise in jihadist groups able to take advantage of extremely porous international borders. The limits of the state-building process in many areas are increasingly visible: many sub-Saharan countries have failed to develop functioning state institutions capable of enforcing the rule of law within their borders and implementing effective social public policies for their people. In the early 2000s, many African states made progress in terms of stabilising conflict zones and holding rulers more accountable. However, this path has been reversed by the recent spread of violence across the region. The most visible example of a weak state concerns a country situated in the Horn of Africa, South Sudan, the continent’s youngest state which gained independence from Sudan in July 2011 following a referendum that passed with almost 99% of the votes. The country has the highest score on the 2015 Fragile States Index, followed immediately by Somalia, Central African Republic and Sudan. The alarming situation in South Sudan has been continuously highlighted by both the UN and international humanitarian organizations, such as the International Red Cross, which continue to warn of an imminent humanitarian catastrophe as the country’s civil war enters its third year, and of the urgent need for international management in order to stop the shocking and extremely cruel human rights violations.

A new generation of violent conflicts is now under way, and in these wars religion seems to be playing a key role, or at least much more important one than before. As is well known, Central African Republic has been in a state of unrest since March 2013, when sectarian violence based on religious divisions hit a country that had a centuries-old tradition of peaceful coexistence between Christians and Muslims. This crisis marked a turning point in the radicalization of religion differences. Yet, despite all the difficulties, there is still some hope that the country may recover and re-establish order. In that context, Pope Francis' recent trip to CAR in Nov 2015, his visit to a mosque under siege from armed Christian militias, coupled with his decision to start the Jubilee of Mercy by opening the Holy Door of the Banguí cathedral, had an important symbolic meaning. Some kind of constitutional order has been restored. First-round presidential elections, held on 27 December 2015, gave voters the opportunity to choose from a list of 30 candidates, and, despite security concerns, the elections went off without major incident. However, fighting has continued.

In other part of the sub-Saharan Africa and particularly in the Sahel, the rise in instability and unrest is mainly due to the spread of jihadist movements, which find an ideal terrain in the region, where the weakness of the state makes it easier to challenge the central government. This is especially true in countries like Somalia where presidential elections have been postponed to 2017 and will represent an important opportunity for this country to restore some kind of stability within its borders, and to respond to the continuous violence and human rights abuses perpetrated by Islamist Al-Shabaab fighters. As far as the fight against terrorism is concerned, it is worth mentioning the major efforts being made by the new Nigerian President, Muhammed Buhari, to hunt down and defeat Boko Haram fighters. According to many experts, the former general from northern Nigeria was elected by the majority of Nigerians because of his determination to crush the home-grown jihadist group, which has been responsible more than 15,000 deaths as well as large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons (est. 2,000,000).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/24/boko-haram-ousted-last-remaining-stronghold-sambisa-forest-says/

There has also been a dangerous new wave of authoritarianism among some of those in office in Africa, who appear determined to renew their term in office by eluding, or by arbitrarily changing national constitutions. the case of Burundi is particularly telling. The country was, until 2015, a success story of reconciliation. Now, however, it is ravaged by unrest and repression. Observers and human rights activists have documented dozens of arbitrary arrests, disappearances and deaths, and have begun to warn of the risk of a new genocide, similar to the one which occurred in Rwanda in 1994. This new political crisis has its roots in the decision made by the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, to run for a third term, although his constitutionally-mandated two terms in office expired in 2016. By ignoring civil demonstrations and by cracking down on any opposition group, president Nkurunziza seems to have inspired other rulers in neighbouring countries, who show the same determination not to allow a new generation of leaders to emerge. This is what is happening in Rwanda, where a recent referendum, strongly criticized by both the US and the EU, allows president Paul Kagame to run for a seven-year term in 2017, followed by two further five-year terms (that will effectively allow Kagame to stay in power until 2034). Kagame has been president since 2000, but he has effectively been in control since his forces marched into the Rwandan capital, Kigali, to end the 1994 genocide. In the Republic of Congo’s president, Nguesso, held a referendum in order to eliminate term limits from his country’s constitution, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president, Joseph Kabila, is now planning to delay new elections indefinitely in order to extend his constitutional rule.

http://www.ippmedia.com/en/safu/conflict-rising-dictatorship-2016-was-filled-bad-news

Sub-Saharan Africa’s unstable economic and political situation is thus likely to aggravate other problems, such as that of migration. Migration is the most visible consequence of this new era of civil wars and unrest in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015-16, displacement reached a record high. For instance, the civil conflict which began in South Sudan led more than 800,000 people to flee to neighbouring countries and, at the same time, it has left almost 2 million people internally displaced. In the Central African Republic, the number of people fleeing the country has almost doubled since the end of the sectarian violence in 2013. Consequently, this situation is likely to aggravate illegal migration to other African countries (and towards Europe), which is closely connected with a widespread problem across the continent, the smuggling of migrants and human trafficking.

http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/publications/2016/2016-Africa-Report/20161209-IDMC-Africa-report-web-en.pdf

The instability experienced by sub-Saharan Africa is also likely to have a dangerous impact on what can be considered the continent’s “historical” problems, i.e. extreme poverty, the absence of viable and functioning social systems (education, health), epidemic diseases, the lack of food security, the environmental problems, as well as overpopulation. As we have seen, according to GDP per capita statistics from the World Bank for 2015, sub-Saharan Africa continues to be by far the poorest region of the world. As regards the phenomenon of population growth , according to UN estimates, Africa’s population is forecast to double to 2.5 billion by 2050 according to http://www.prb.org/Publications/DataSheets/2016/2016-world-population-data-sheet.aspx

and about 400 million of these people may live in Nigeria alone. Such a demographic increase would bring with it enormous dangers, i.e. growing pressure on social services (access to drinking water, electricity, schools, health etc.) and overcrowded cities unable to meet the population’s needs.

In conclusion, the range of risks and problems affecting sub-Saharan Africa are likely to make 2017 another tumultuous and difficult year for the region, requiring strong and decisive efforts both at the national and international level to cope with these growing threats. The US continues to view the region as a “high priority”, continuing its aid programs, as well as implementing a series of trade and military cooperation policies. The EU is also strongly committed to supporting African countries in dealing with the many challenges. Among other EU initiatives it is worth mentioning the EU “Emergency Trust Fund for Africa”, a fund with almost 2 billion euros from the EU budget, whose main aim is to foster stability in the region, while contributing to better migration management.

What is more, despite this generally pessimistic scenario, there have still been some important success stories and signs of progress. Among them, there was what seems to be the end of the spread of Ebola in Guinea and in neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone which would mark an important milestone in the fight to contain the epidemic (which broke out in West Africa in December 2013) and give the area new hope for a better future.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35320363

You should also be up to date on the work of the Africa-EU Partnership:

http://www.africa-eu-partnership.org/

and the evolving situation in Somalia (the fight against terrorism and efforts to rebuild the state):

http://amisom-au.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union_Mission_to_Somalia

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/somalia

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/01/deadly-twin-bombings-hit-hotel-in-mogadishu-somalia

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/jan/04/somalia-al-shabaab-insurgency-mogadishu-mohamed-nur

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/16/world/africa/shabab-african-union-somalia.html?_r=0

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/nov/26/somalia-fragile-security-aid-out-of-reach-mogadishu