The Sahel faces a compounded, rapidly growing crisis driven by intense armed conflict, extreme poverty, and severe climate change impacts. Over 33 million people need humanitarian aid due to jihadist violence, weak governance, food insecurity, and displacement, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. As of early 2026, these countries in the Central Sahel region, often referred to as the Alliance of Sahel States or AES) are facing a "red alert" situation, with escalating, multi-layered crises threatening state collapse. The region is considered one of the most neglected and conflict-ridden in the world, marked by a convergence of terrorism, military coups, extreme poverty, and climate change. The region is defined by a deeply interconnected web of security, environmental, and humanitarian crises, with the Central Sahel serving as the global epicenter of violent extremism. The region faces an unprecedented, worsening crisis, characterized by a "toxic mix" of armed conflict, governance failures, and climate change that has displaced millions
Main Challenges in the Sahel:
Security and Conflict: A
surge in terrorism and violence from armed groups, leading to the rise of
military regimes and, in some areas, a collapse of state authority.
Climate Change and Environmental
Degradation: The region is highly vulnerable to
drought, desertification, and flooding, which ruin livelihoods dependent on
farming and pastoralism.
Humanitarian and Food Crisis: High
levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and a massive displacement crisis with
over 3.7 million internally displaced people.
Political Instability and Governance: Widespread
corruption, weak state presence, and a series of coups d'état (e.g., Mali,
Burkina Faso, Niger) have created instability and increased human rights
violations.
Development and Demographic Pressure: Intense
poverty, limited education and job opportunities, and rapid population growth
create high demand for services the state cannot provide and an easy
environment for the recruiting of boys and young men to jihadist groups and
other military factions.
These factors are deeply intertwined, with climate
change fueling competition for resources, which then triggers conflict and
exacerbates the humanitarian emergency. The European Union needs to work out an
effective response to contain and manage the growing challenges to its southern
flank that are rooted in the Sahel.
Italy and the Sahel:
As of early 2026, Italy has positioned itself as a key, and increasingly
solitary, European actor in the Sahel, aiming to maintain a security and
diplomatic presence following the withdrawal of other European forces. Italy
continues to operate a small military mission in Niger, navigating the
challenging political landscape following the 2023 coup. Through the Mattei
Plan and a "new look" foreign policy, Rome is seeking to anchor
European influence in Africa, focusing on managing migration and countering Russian
and Chinese influence. Italy is thus prioritizing diplomatic, economic, and
security initiatives in the Sahel to manage migration routes as part of the
Mattei Plan, which entered its third year of implementation. The Italian
government, viewing migration from the region as a "structural
reality" rather than a temporary crisis, is actively engaging with African
nations through high-level summits, investment in local infrastructure, and
security partnerships to deter departures.
The EU and the Sahel:
The Sahel remains key to European security due to interlinked threats –
terrorism and its spillover into neighbouring countries, and organised crime
networks controlling lucrative drug and human trafficking routes to Europe.
Heightened international competition for influence and access to the region’s
mineral wealth should also caution the EU against complete disengagement. Ties
with long-standing partners such as Russia, China and Türkiye have deepened ,
while the retreat of European countries following the wave of military
takeovers created space and opened opportunities for new actors, like Iran and
India, to engage with the countries of the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES).
Anti-Western sentiment and strategic hedging have thus led to the diversification
of partnerships under the banner of ‘multipolarity’. But external actors
interpret multipolarity according to their respective agendas, while leaders of
the AES prioritise sovereignty and multi-alignment. Experts argue that the EU
should respond by pursuing targeted, interest-based cooperation on energy and
mining, alongside efforts to counter transnational terrorism and organised
crime. It should also engage more selectively in key civilian domains,
prioritising education and cooperation with civil society.
Conclusion:
The situation continues to evolve. Some commentators argue that based on
intelligence and strategic assessments for 2026, the Sahel region presents a
critical, compound danger to European security. The confluence of intensified
terrorism, Russian influence, and migration pressures is creating a
"perfect storm" that poses a direct, long-term threat to European.
Italy’s 2026 Intelligence Annual Report describes a rapidly deteriorating
security environment stretching from the Sahel to the Gulf. The escalation
around Iran now confirms many of the report’s
warnings — turning what analysts call the “Arc of
Crises” into a direct strategic concern for Europe and Italy.
https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/multi-aligned-sahel-reframing-eus-role-crowded-region
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel
https://www.alliance-sahel.org/en/news/sahel-climate-change-challenges/
https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/multi-aligned-sahel-reframing-eus-role-crowded-region
https://www.stimson.org/2026/the-mediterranean-north-africa-the-sahel-a-single-strategic-system/
https://decode39.com/13722/on-board-the-mattei-plan-italys-bid-to-anchor-europe-in-africa-and-india/
https://www.iai.it/en/publications/c05/mattei-plan-after-addis-ababa-italy-africa-summit
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