Introduction

You could watch Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ for the background to Climate Change. If you are too mean to buy it you can watch extracts on You Tube or borrow my copy. Or you can watch him on TED with various updates. Here are a few:

and then you could go to the Climate Project on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_mr9EqJg18

Climate Change and Global Warming - key points and an update

For some basic statistics, start with pages 6 and 7:

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld_Statistics_2015.pdf (see ‘Fossil fuels’ below for short extract)

and also excellent:

https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Complete_WER_2013_Survey.pdf

and for the evolution of the current international agenda see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

Observations across the United States and world provide multiple, independent lines of evidence that climate change is happening now. Over the past century, human activities have released large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The majority of greenhouse gases come from burning fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation, industrial processes, and some agricultural practices also emit gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases act like a blanket around Earth, trapping energy in the atmosphere and causing it to warm. This phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect and is natural and necessary to support life on Earth. However, the buildup of greenhouse gases can change Earth's climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems.

Global warming refers to the recent and ongoing rise in global average temperature near Earth's surface. It is caused mostly by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming is causing climate patterns to change. However, global warming itself represents only one aspect of climate change. (That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 80 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.)

Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among other effects, that occur over several decades or longer.

Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.5°F over the past century, and is projected to rise another 0.5 to 8.6°F over the next hundred years. Small changes in the average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather. The evidence is clear. Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in weather and climate. Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves. The planet's oceans and glaciers have also experienced some big changes - oceans are warming and becoming more acidic, ice caps are melting, and sea levels are rising. As these and other changes become more pronounced in the coming decades, they will likely present challenges to our society and our environment.

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/

http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction#WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Paris, France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
The conference negotiated the Paris Agreement, a global agreement on the reduction of climate change, the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending it. The agreement will become legally binding if joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions.Such parties will need to sign the agreement in New York between 22 April 2016 (Earth Day) and 21 April 2017, and also adopt it within their own legal systems (through ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession).
The agreement sets the goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. It also calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to be reached during the second half of the 21st century. In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, the parties will also "pursue efforts to" limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C.The 1.5 °C goal will require zero emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050, according to some scientists. For key elements see:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm
Preventing global warming is clearly a collective public good. This means that individuals and individual countries will only really benefit from collective action by the international community as a whole. A strategy that includes only some countries will not be effective. The commitment of both the US and China, originally made in Nov. 2015
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/12/china-and-us-make-carbon-pledge
and formally given in Paris is crucial as they are the world’s two biggest CO₂emitters.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/china-celebrates-paris-climate-change-deal/
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/12/world/global-climate-change-conference-vote/
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/13/paris-climate-deal-cop-diplomacy-developing-united-nations
The agreement does not include sanctions on states that fail to reduce their CO₂emissions and has been criticized for this by some experts as unlikely to be effective.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/legacy-or-bust/2015/12/17/ab8bd418-a4fa-11e5-9c4e-be37f66848bb_story.html
https://judithcurry.com/2016/01/20/the-trojan-horse-of-the-paris-climate-agreement/
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/hansen-calls-cop21-a-fraud/
To see how things are going:
http://climateactiontracker.org/
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/257/Paris-Agreement-stage-set-to-ramp-up-climate-action.html

Background:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

https://www.un.org/en/globalissues/climatechange/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Renewable_energy

http://www.globalissues.org/issue/178/climate-change-and-global-warming

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/key_facts.shtml

http://www.climatechangechallenge.org/Resource%20Centre/Climate-Change/3-what_causes_climate_change.htm

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/CI-summary-2012.pdf

http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/advantages.htm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm

http://www.eea.europa.eu/media/newsreleases/climate-change-eu-shows-leadership

see latest from Green Peace on European Union (important to read):

http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/en/News/2016/Commission-breaks-pledge-to-bring-EU-targets-in-line-with-Paris-climate-deal/

http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/en/News/2014/EU-leaders-pull-handbrake-on-clean-energy/

http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/en/campaigns/Climate/

Historic announcement by US and China to reduce emissions 12 Nov 2014:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2014/nov/12/united-states-and-china-reach-landmark-carbon-emissions-deal-live

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/12/china-and-us-make-carbon-pledge

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/asia/china-us-xi-obama-apec.html?_r=0

Fossil Fuels:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
From pages 6 and 7 of the International Energy Agency’s ‘Key World Energy Statistics 2015’.
Global supply of energy by fuel source in 2013:
Oil: 31.1% Natural Gas: 21.4% Coal: 28.9% Nuclear: 4.8%
Hydro: 2.4% Biofuels and Waste: 10.2% Other: 1.2%

(Peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal. ‘Other’ includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.)

Supply of energy by fuel source in 2014 in OECD countries:
Oil: 35.7% Natural Gas: 25.6% Coal: 19.3% Nuclear: 9.9%
Hydro: 2.3% Biofuels and Waste: 5.5% Other: 1.7%
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld_Statistics_2015.pdf
More stats for consumption or output (see also # below):
Coal: according to a Greenpeace analysis, between the months of January and September 2015 coal use around the world was down by at least 2.3% and by as much as 4.6% versus the same period last year.
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2015/11/09/2015-the-year-global-coal-consumption-fell-off-a-cliff/

Oil: in 2014 global consumption of oil and oil products increased by 840,000 b/d, with emerging economies accounting for all of the growth. Light distillates were the fastest growing refined product category for a second consecutive year.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/oil-review-by-energy-type/oil-and-product-consumption.html

The IEA expects world oil demand growth to slow in 2016 as factors that have recently fueled consumption, such as post-recessionary bounces in some countries and sharply falling crude oil prices, are expected to fade, noted the International Energy Agency in its monthly Oil Market Report for November.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/11/iea-expects-world-oil-demand-growth-to-slow-in-2016.html

Natural Gas: in 2014 growth in natural gas consumption was below average in all regions except North America and the Middle East. The US (+2.9) recorded the largest growth in consumption in the world followed by China (+8.6%) and Iran (+6.8%). Consumption in the European Union had the biggest volumetric and percentage decline on record (-11.6%).

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/natural-gas-review-by-energy-type/natural-gas-consumption.html

Nuclear Power: in 2014 world nuclear power generation increased by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 10-year average of -0.8%. Gains in South Korea, China, France and North America more than offset declines in Japan, Belgium and the UK. Japanese nuclear power output ceased in 2014 as the country’s last operating reactor was taken off line. Nuclear is slowly recovering from the impact of the Fukushima incident, but production remains nearly 10% below the 2006 peak.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/nuclear-energy.html

Hydroelectricity: in 2014 global hydroelectric output grew by a below average 2.0%. Growth in the Asia Pacific region offset drought-driven declines in the Western Hemisphere and Europe & Eurasia. Chinese hydroelectric output (+15.7%) grew by a the second-largest increment on record and accounted for all of the increase in global output. Drought conditions reduced output in Brazil by 5.5% and in Turkey by 32%.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/hydroelectricity.html

Renewable Energy: renewable power consumption grew by 12% in 2014, providing 6% of the world's electricity. The rapid growth of non-hydro renewable power generation continued in 2014. Global growth was 12%, slower than in 2013 but the 11th successive year of double-digit growth. Renewables contributed 42.5% of the growth in global power generation in 2014, representing 28% of world energy growth. The OECD remains the main source of renewable power generation (68% of world total in 2014), but non-OECD growth has accelerated sharply and has exceeded OECD growth in percentage terms every year since 2008. The share of renewable power in global power generation reached 6% in 2014, almost doubling in five years from 3.1% in 2009. Renewables accounted for 8.9% of OECD power generation in 2014, compared to 3.5% in the non-OECD. While the aggregate shares remain low, for some individual countries renewables now contribute a significant share of power. The number of countries with a renewables share of more than 10% has nearly doubled from 20 in 2010 to 39 in 2014.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy/renewable-power.html

http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/

Renewable (sustainable) energy (resources)

Look again at pages 6 and 7 of:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld_Statistics_2015.pdf

Then look at this extract from the ‘Renewables 2014 Global Status Report’:

Renewable energy comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally replenished) but the term often includes biomass. Based on REN21's 2014 report:

Renewable energy provided an estimated 19% of global final energy consumption in 2012 ,and continued to grow in 2013. Of this total share in 2012, modern renewables accounted for approximately 10%, with the remainder (estimated at just over 9%) coming from traditional biomass (e.g. wood). Heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for an estimated 4.2% of total final energy use (?), hydropower made up about 3.8%, and an estimated 2% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, tidal (variable renewables) and modern biomass, as well as by biofuels (e.g. from plants and food waste recycling). The combined modern and traditional renewable energy share remained about level with 2011, even as the share of modern renewables increased. This is because the rapid growth in modern renewable energy is tempered by both a slow migration away from traditional biomass and a continued rise in total global energy demand.

http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/Resources/GSR/2014/GSR2014_full%20report_low%20res.pdf particularly pages 13/14

Worldwide investments in renewable technologies amounted to more than US$214 billion in 2013, with countries like China and the United States heavily investing in wind, hydro, solar and biofuels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Renewable_energy
http://www.conserve-energy-future.com/EnergySources.php
http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/renewableenergy/
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2011/06/energy-statistics
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/359607/investment_in_renewables_falls_by_20_per_cent_in_2009.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_commercialization
http://247wallst.com/2011/04/15/alternative-energy-watch-investment-in-clean-energy-fall-france-cancels-permits-for-shale-gas-drilling-memc-meets-canadian-rule-for-feed-in-tariff-tot-dvn-memc-csiq/
http://www.pfpi.net/trees-trash-and-toxics-how-biomass-energy-has-become-the-new-coal
General global energy consumption:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/08/24/energy-resources-consumption/
According to D. G. Victor and K. Yanosek in ‘The Crisis in Clean Energy’, Foreign Affairs July/August 2011 :
after years of very rapid growth (25% a year) the clean energy industry is facing crisis. With the economic crisis public subsidies are no longer sustainable politically. At a global level in 2011 the number of new start-up projects for wind turbines fell for the first time (by 50% in the US). Solar energy and ethanol in the US depend on federal and state subsidies. Private investment in clean energy has fallen. In the EU there have been cut-backs in clean energy subsidies and investment. Germany cut solar energy subsidies in 2010, Italy has capped subsidies and Spain and the Czech Republic are making cuts. China, now the biggest carbon emitter, is maintaining support for the industry but needs to improve the electrical power grid to link installations (e.g. wind farms) to consumers. On the stock markets share values for clean energy companies are falling. So far investment in off-shore wind farms in Northern Europe has continued and roof-top solar energy technology in the US remains popular in California and Florida and New Jersey. However, the general outlook is gloomy. Nuclear power, contested by some as not truly clean, feared by many among the public as dangerous, but supported by others as cheap and reliable, is unlikely to receive significant investment in the near future after the events following the tsunami in Japan.
So Western countries, in particular, face a tough choice – trying to invest to prevent global warming and ensure future energy security while faced with the ongoing economic crisis, rising public debt and, for most, a trade deficit. So far there has been investment in, and purchase of, established clean energy technologies rather than investment in innovative future technologies that could be much more competitive with traditional fossil fuel energy sources. Solutions are necessary that do not depend on government subsidies that the US and the EU may no longer be able to afford. Scarce public funds should therefore go to innovation and to supporting research and promising projects (e.g. organisms that can create bio-fuels) and commercial-scale testing of such new technologies. Most existing technologies are not economically viable without subsidies, so the current crisis should be seen as an opportunity to reconsider strategy in favour of innovation and commercialization to lower costs and achieve competitiveness. This could be fostered by cross-border partnerships to engage in emerging markets, e.g. between EU companies and China.
For full text go to:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67903/david-g-victor-and-kassia-yanosek/the-crisis-in-clean-energy
also ‘Tough Love for Renewable Energy’:

http://find.galegroup.com/gic/infomark.do?&source=gale&idigest=e00c570417b0eb514f1a6e98f0db297d&prodId=GIC&userGroupName=king46652&tabID=T002&docId=A289216898&type=retrieve&contentSet=IAC-Documents&version=1.0

The EU Emissions Trading System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Emission_Trading_Scheme

according to the European Union:

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/index_en.htm

and according to Friends of the Earth:

https://www.foeeurope.org/carbon-trading
http://www.foeeurope.org/Dangerous-over-reliance-failing-EUETS-190213

http://corporateeurope.org/pressreleases/2013/it-time-eu-scraps-its-carbon-emissions-trading-system

http://www.friendsofeurope.org/event/redesigning-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets-whats-next/

a critical article on the EU Emissions Trading System: failing to deliver

http://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/publications/FoEE_ETS_failing_to_deliver_1010.pdf
and a 2013 assessment by the Grantham Research Institute:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/WP106-effectiveness-eu-emissions-trading-system.pdf

# other slightly older info and stats:

Fossil Fuels Dominate Global Primary Energy Consumption

Matt Lucky and Milena Gonzalez 2013-11-06

Significant price differences between regional natural gas markets have driven many European countries to increase coal consumption while decreasing use of natural gas (Source: BP).

Coal, natural gas, and oil accounted for 87 percent of global primary energy consumption in 2012 as the growth of worldwide energy use continued to slow due to the economic downturn. The relative weight of these energy sources keeps shifting, although the change was ever so slight. Natural gas increased its share of global primary energy consumption from 23.8 to 23.9 percent during 2012, coal rose from 29.7 to 29.9 percent, and oil fell from 33.4 to 33.1 percent. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2017 coal will replace oil as the dominant primary energy source worldwide.
The shale revolution in the United States is reshaping global oil and gas markets. The United States produced oil at record levels in 2012 and is expected to overtake Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas combined in 2013. Consequently, the country is importing decreasing amounts of these two fossil fuels, while using rising levels of its natural gas for power generation. This has led to price discrepancies between the American and European natural gas markets that in turn have prompted Europeans to increase their use of coal for power generation. Coal consumption, however, was dominated by China, which in 2012 for the first time accounted for more than half of the world’s coal use.
Global natural gas production grew by 1.9 percent in 2012; the United States (with 20.4 percent of the total) and Russia (17.6 percent) are the dominant producers. Other countries accounted for less than 5 percent each of global output.
In 2012, coal remained the fastest-growing fossil fuel globally, even though at 2.5 percent the increase in consumption was weak relative to the 4.4 percent average of the last decade. China increased its coal use by 6.1 percent. India also saw significant increases in its coal consumption—9.9 percent in 2012. Coal use by members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) declined by 4.2 percent, as an 11.9 percent decline in U.S. consumption outweighed increases of 3.4 percent in the EU and 5.4 percent in Japan.
Oil remains the most widely consumed fuel worldwide, but at a growth rate of 0.9 percent it is being outpaced by gas and coal for the third consecutive year. The OECD’s share declined to 50.2 percent of global consumption—the smallest share on record and the sixth decrease in seven years. This reflects declines of 2.3 percent in U.S. consumption and of 4.6 percent in EU consumption. By contrast, usage in China and Japan rose by 5.0 and 6.3 percent respectively.
Conversely, global oil production grew by more than twice as much as consumption—2.2 percent or 100.1 million tons in 2012. This was mainly due to a rise in U.S. output of 13.9 percent—the highest rate ever. In comparison, Canada, China, and the former Soviet Union saw relatively small increases of 6.8, 2.0, and 0.4 percent respectively.
Consumption of all fossil fuels will likely grow in the future. With increasing shale gas fracking and many countries’ interest in displacing coal generation with natural gas due to the lower greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas use seems well poised to grow. Although some countries are trying to move away from coal use, the incredible coal consumption growth rates in China and India will likely make this the main energy resource in the next few years. Last, even if oil is eventually not the world’s dominant energy resource, its use is expected to grow unless there is a fundamental change in the way the world fuels the transportation sector.
http://blogs.worldwatch.org/revolt/fossil-fuels-dominate-global-primary-energy-consumption/
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that about 11% of world marketed energy consumption is from renewable energy sources (biofuels, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind) with a projection for 15% by 2040.
18 Dec 2014 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=527&t=4

English for Diplomacy

domenica 13 marzo 2016

Climate Change, Global Warming, Pollution, Environmental Degradation and Renewable Energy

Introduction

You could watch Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ for the background to Climate Change. If you are too mean to buy it you can watch extracts on You Tube or borrow my copy. Or you can watch him on TED with various updates. Here are a few:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUO8bdrXghs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uf7szRnE64 poor sound quality

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDiGYuQicpA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3B541KM3q4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQyAG4ZxcLo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7E1v24Dllk&list=PLRXDQyPe0I_43DrqfJgxmPJrq296-NOBH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r593zLtZxAU&index=2&list=PLRXDQyPe0I_43DrqfJgxmPJrq296-NOBH