domenica 12 gennaio 2020

Demographic Trends and International Relations


A great presentation, though perhaps over-optimistic, by Prof. Hans Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E
an opposing view:
Overpopulation? – current world population on 18 November 2019 is estimated at between 7.60 and 7.4 billion and continues to rise. http://www.census.gov/popclock/
It reached 6 billion only 20 years ago in October 1999 and 7 billion in October 2011 according to the United Nations Population Fund. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Today's world population is more than double the population in1970. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
World population is estimated to rise to 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 when it should peak and level off. See the video with Hans Rosling above.
In 1900 the world’s population was only 1.6 billion, a little more than a fifth of today’s total. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/worldpopulation.htm


1. China
1,389,618,778
 6. Brazil
210,301,591
2. India
1,311,559,204
 7. Nigeria
208,679,114
3. United States
331,883,986
 8. Bangladesh
161,062,905
4. Indonesia
264,935,824
 9. Russia
141,944,641
5. Pakistan
210,797,836
 10. Mexico
127,318,112
https://www.census.gov/popclock/print.php?component=counter
For a list of the countries with the fastest population growth rates see:

Are there now too many human beings?
The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in our use of the world’s resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and optimistic scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates show will be reached in a couple of years. The rapid growth in global population thus has dramatic direct consequences for the number of people in the developing world (particularly in poor countries in Asia and Africa) who already face or may soon face starvation, hunger or malnutrition as well as serious consequences for sustainable global development (given the ultimately finite nature of fossil fuel reserves and raw materials such as minerals, chemicals and rare metals) and a range of environmental issues. Though the percentage of people living in extreme poverty has fallen, the percentage living in relative poverty has risen. Moreover, a vast number of people live just above the poverty threshold and are therefore at risk in the event of environmental or natural disasters and price variations.
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged nearly 170 points in September 2019, unchanged from August but 3.3 percent higher than in the corresponding period last year. While in September sugar prices fell sharply, the decline was almost entirely offset by higher prices of vegetable oils and meat. The Dairy index was down only marginally, whereas that of cereals remained steady. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Food security, SDGs and children
The number of hungry people in the world is no longer falling and stood at 820 million in 2019.
climate change
climate change also affects farming:
Although global food prices are only slightly higher in 2019 than in 2018, when differences in income are taken into account, estimates reveal that food prices in sub-Saharan Africa are 30% to 40% higher than prices in the rest of the world at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
So in the worst case scenario, if the global economy were again to face real difficulty and if this were to combine with climate change and poor harvests this could mean falling incomes, rising population and rising food prices. This could significantly worsen the situation for the world’s 820 million people already suffering from undernourishment, i.e. those facing chronic food deprivation, in 2019 (and put at risk the additional 2 billion people expected to be added to global population by 2050). More people would be pushed into poverty and extreme poverty as defined by the UN and face long term food insecurity. So despite significant long term progress on reducing poverty and hunger (SDG1) there remains much to be done and current trends are worrying.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/poverty-and-shared-prosperity-2018-piecing-together-the-poverty-puzzle-frequently-asked-questions
http://www.worldhunger.org/

In December 2018 the World Resources Institute estimates that the world must sustainably produce 56% more food by 2050.


Thus, many experts argue that given current population growth forecasts for the developing world we will need another leap forward in terms of innovation in farming technology and practices, like the Green Revolution of the 1960s, simply in order to avoid widespread famine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug (often credited with saving over a billion people worldwide from starvation).
However, there are fears because increased food production has come at the price of limited crop variety and biodiversity and has involved an increased use of pesticides and more pollution. The growing use of agricultural mono-cultures may not be sustainable in the long term.
food scarcity, loss and redistribution
water security
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/08/29/sustainable-path-to-water-security-urgent-priority-for-arab-world
Meanwhile a different trend is affecting many parts of the developed world, low fertility rates and an ageing population.
The economic effects of an ageing population are varied and there may be some benefits for economies which are expanding. For example, older people often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Moreover, if the population falls and GDP remains constant or grows at a very low rate, (e.g. 0.2 % a year) per capita income actually increases in the short term. Some economists, mainly in Japan, see further advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity for progress in automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a need for a shift from concern about GDP growth to the idea of personal well-being.
However, given the recent economic slowdown in many developed economies none of this is positive or likely to help economies already characterized by low inflation, low levels of spending and low interest rates. Moreover, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some of those met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, the cost of which is likely to increase dramatically as the population ages. This would present governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible shift from taxes on earnings to taxes on consumption, and a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population (there will be fewer people in school), especially if the economy begins to grow, as fewer young people would probably continue into higher education as they would be in immediate demand as part of the work force. However, with many countries facing high youth unemployment the numbers in higher education may grow.
Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Predefined benefit pension systems are experiencing sustainability problems due to increased longevity. The extension of the pension period by people living longer has not been matched by a rise in pension contributions and has only been partly matched by an extension of the active labor period (a raise in the retirement age), resulting in a decline of replacement ratios. In recent years, many countries have adopted policies to strengthen the financial sustainability of pension systems, although the challenges regarding pension adequacy remain. One solution in favour of social soidarity might be a flat-rate pension (or nearly flat-rate) for all, regardless of (or with little regard for) the level of pension contributions made. Another is simply to raise the age at which one receives a pension on people born later. e.g. This is what is happening in many Europan countries. Those who prefer the free market may argue for the gradual abolition of public pension schemes in favour of the private sector, thus reducing the burden to the state.
Population growth in developing countries also increases migration flows, pressure on the allocation of scarce resources and the loss of biodiversity. See:
See also the notes on this blog regarding the EU and migration. Though many migrants are refugees seeking political asylum, others are economic migrants moving to escape poverty, the threat of starvation or simply to find better opportunities.
See also:
The New Population Bomb, Jack A. Goldstone, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010
or
Against The Grain, C. F. Runge and C. P. Runge, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010
http://relooney.com/NS4053/0_NS4053_825.pdf
Baby Gap, Stephen Philip Kramer, Foreign Affairs Volume 91, No.3, May/June 2012
How will current population trends affect international relations?

Some ideas for an essay:
Size of current world population and forecasts for the future / rate of growth, current trends and the predicted slow-down in rate of growth but only stabilizing in 2100 / statistics on number of starving and suffering from malnutrition, and number of people now at risk of starvation or malnutrition in the near future.
Growing pressure on world’s resources and environment / food / water / shelter / medical care / finite reserves of fossil fuels and raw materials / the need for recycling on a much larger scale / deforestation / desertification / land, air and sea pollution / urbanization / destruction of rural habitat / endangered wildlife and reduced biodiversity / an increase in carbon and other emissions /climate change / examples and statistics ? / the difficulty of asking poor countries to make sacrifices in terms of greener policies
Problems for poor countries with high population growth rate / look at all the above-mentioned factors but at a local level by focusing on the statistics and information for one country or area in Africa or Asia e.g. the Horn of Africa / also gender issues, e.g.

At the moment we produce enough food globally to feed the world’s population. The problem is the unequal distribution in the production of food resources between rich and poor countries and the lack of infrastructure in developing countries to allow the effective delivery of food from other regions in normal times, or from outside the country in terms of emergency aid at a time of crisis.
/ unemployment and underemployment (difficult of creating jobs as quickly as the population grows) / poor distribution of wealth leading to political unrest (and often repression by authoritarian regimes) with bad, stagnant or worsening living conditions and political instability / examples and statistics for any of these, e.g. North Africa?
An increase in migration from / the country to the city / poor, overpopulated countries to other slightly less poor, more stable countries / to wealthier ones e.g. to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states / to North America / to Europe / remittances sent back home / examples and data for all of these
A greater likelihood of the spread of epidemic diseases and the danger of a pandemic as more people and goods circulate
Problems for rich countries / aging populations / so without migrants or raising retirement ages further there will be a reduction in the workforce, and without continuous technological development and greater automation there will be a fall in GDP / growing pressure on welfare system, in particular on the health care system, the education system and the social security and pension system / burden carried by those in work / countries with declining population levels and low growth rates may see a similar decline in their influence on world affairs / immigration and cultural diversity can lead to social conflict instead of harmony and cultural enrichment / problems of acceptance and integration / security / terrorism
The real and wider problem for the international community is the need for coordinated cooperation strategies in which all states agree to take part (and to honor their commitments) in order to overcome a series of long-term challenges which now seem to be interrelated (as set out in the UN's SDGs):
1) Dealing effectively with environmental degradation and pollution, protecting wildlife and biodiversity (any successful examples?)
2) Regulating carbon emissions (and other shorter-lived atmospheric pollutants) and slowing climate change ( describe current situation), reducing pollution due to plastics
3) Avoiding competition for scarce resources like clean water and food and agreeing a more equitable distribution / avoiding wasting these resources / examples, the water of the Nile and the countries of North-East Africa / avoiding competition for fossil fuel reserves and scarce raw materials
4) Regulating migration, protecting the rights of migrants and fostering integration, while enhancing security and counter-terrorism
5) Rapidly developing alternative, greener, cleaner and renewable sources of energy (preferably not bio-mass sources like ethanol which may reduce the food supply) and reducing waste by using our resources more intelligently.
6) Increasing and diversifying food production. In 2019 the US produces 32% of the world’s corn and 29% of its soybeans (critics also argue that too much US corn is now used for bio-fuels), while 30 low-income countries are food deficit countries. In 2009 the FAO said global food production needed to increase by 70% (and production needed to double in developing countries) to support a global population expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/35571/icode/
How is this to be achieved? Would better redistribution of resources be enough or do we need some kind of agicultural/technological revolution?
/ the debate on GM (genetically modified) food and the need for another Green Revolution or something similar but fears about agricultural monocultures. Better information could be made available to small-scale farmers through the Global Open Data for Agriculture and Nutrition IT project.
7) Encouraging sex education and voluntary birth control, although this is controversial for some countries and cultures. Point out the dangers of China’s one-child policy (female infanticide), now abandoned in favor of a two-child policy (Oct. 2015) and India’s 1970s’ voluntary sterilization policy (the poor are more likely to volunteer if there are cash incentives and this is a form of discrimination).
8) More importantly, we should promote and support female primary, secondary school and higher education and their entrance into the work force in countries with a rapidly rising population, since the biggest single factors in reducing fertility rates seem to be education and the empowerment of women.
In the absence of successful diplomacy leading to an agreed international approach to these problems, one could expect to see growing competition for limited resources, conflicts resulting directly from such competition, mass migrations and policies regarding global challenges decided on an inadequate, ad hoc, nation by nation basis. In such a scenario we may all end up as losers, but those most at risk in terms of food, health and economic security and basic living conditions will be the first victims.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/global/competition
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2006/sep/01/guardianweekly.guardianweekly1
As Sustainable Development Goal 17 makes clear, in order to deal with the problems caused or made worse by population trends a global partnership will be necessary.



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