giovedì 13 febbraio 2020

A possible essay plan on the nuclear question


How should the international community respond to the challenges posed by the spread of nuclear technology?
Introduction: Start with a reference to a recent event of importance to the question, e.g. the North Korean nuclear program and US-North Korean negotiations or The US decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia and the Iran nuclear deal. Explain that nuclear power can be used for military or peaceful purposes and the framework set up to control and monitor this – the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Explain that the job of the IAEA is difficult because facilities designed to produce enriched uranium for the production of nuclear power for peaceful purposes can be used to further enrich the uranium for military purposes. So preventing a country from from developing nuclear weapons requires close and constant monitoring of all its nuclear activities ant potential delivery systems.
Line of argument: this essay will argue that nuclear technologies are a reality and can not simply or safely be banned. The best course for the international community is to limit and monitor their use in the short term while trying to negotiate a a comprehensive treaty to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world to a minimum, and to gradually phase out nuclear power plants completely as more powerful, cheaper green technologies are developed.
Nuclear weapons: explain which countries have them and some of the arguments for eliminating them – their deliberate use in a war would be disastrous for humanity / they might be used in an escalation from conventional war / there could be an accident / they could be a target for a terrorist attack to capture them or launch them.
Outline some of the arguments for maintaining some of them though at reduced levels / deterrence MAD, they kept the peace in the Cold War and prevented a massive conventional World War III between the US and USSR / they do not really give a nuclear power special status or an effective way to coerce a non-nuclear power (examples from history). It is old technology and knowledge can not be undone / any ban on nuclear weapons might lead to massive investment in conventional weapons to compensate, or worse to the development of other weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological weapons.
Arguments for nuclear power for peaceful purposes – uranium 235 is not it is not renewable but current sources are not likely to run out for the next 1,000 years and there are other sources although extraction would be difficult / it is 'clean' in the sense that it does not produce carbon emissions although mining and refining uranium ore requires energy / in some energy applications it is cheap compared with fossil fuels and green energy / nuclear waste can be recycled
Arguments against nuclear power for peaceful purposes – it produces radioactive waste material which is extremely toxic and can produce cancer and which must be stored for between 5 and 50 years, depending on the level of radioactivity, before being disposed of / nuclear power plants and nuclear waste could be targets for a terrorist attack to cause an explosion or capture waste material for use in a dirty bomb / nuclear power plants are complicated to build and run, developing nations might be tempted to cut costs by cutting safety procedures / the long-term costs including maintenance or decommissioning of plants, waste storage and disposal could be higher than they seem / there is always the danger of an accident due to equipment failure or human error or unforeseen circumstances e.g. Chernobyl and Fukushima / in the long term renewable, green energies (wind, solar etc...) will become cheaper than nuclear energy.
Conclusion: It is not clear that eliminating nuclear weapons is either feasible or completely desirable in the short term, so the international community should focus on limiting the number of nuclear powers to the smallest number possible, and fostering comprehensive negotiation between the nuclear powers to reduce the number of weapons and warheads to the absolute minimum necessary to deter them from a major war. At the same time the international community should accept the continued use of nuclear power for peaceful purposes in the short term , but work with the IAEA to discourage countries from building new facilities and plants for the production of nuclear power in favor or investment in green energy systems and in research and development to develop more powerful green energy technologies.

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