venerdì 5 dicembre 2025

Why economic diplomacy is so important right now

Italy's economy in late 2025 shows weak growth (around 0.4-0.6% for 2025), with forecasts indicating slow recovery, hurt by global uncertainty, tariffs, and lagging net exports, despite some internal demand and positive labor market signs; long-term concerns remain around high public debt and structural issues like skills gaps

Key Points for December 2025:

  • Low GDP Growth: Forecasts hover around 0.4-0.6% for 2025, with limited momentum expected into 2026.
  • External Headwinds: Global trade tensions, new tariffs (especially on US trade), and reduced demand from partners are hurting Italian exports.
  • Domestic Demand Support: Growth relies on domestic spending, particularly investment, partly driven by EU recovery funds (RRF).
  • Labor Market Mixed: Employment is rising, but wage growth and hours per worker are weak, and skills shortages persist.
  • Public Finances: Debt remains high (around 137% of GDP by 2027), and debt servicing costs are a concern, though deficits are projected to fall.
  • Inflation: Remains subdued, helping consumer purchasing power, but rising energy costs (ETS2) might push it up later. 

Major Concerns:

  • High Debt: Italy's large public debt-to-GDP ratio poses systemic risks.
  • Productivity & Structural Issues: Falling productivity and regional economic disparities (North-South divide) are persistent problems.
  • External Shocks: Vulnerability to international trade disputes and economic slowdowns. 

In essence, Italy's economy is experiencing fragile, slow growth, with forecasts suggesting minimal improvement, struggling against global headwinds despite some positive domestic trends.

https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-pages/italy/economic-forecast-italy_en

https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/11/17/eu-halves-italys-growth-forecast-0-4-percent-in-2025-bottom-of-the-pack-by-2027/

https://www.coface.kr/news-economy-and-insights/italy-despite-flattering-comments-on-its-performance-the-economy-is-not-taking-off

https://www.istat.it/en/press-release/italys-economic-outlook-2025-2026-2/

so check https://youngdip.blogspot.com/2025/09/italian-economic-diplomacy.html


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