Artificial Intelligence and the jobs market

The impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Italian job market represents a significant transition involving both automation risks for millions of routine roles and massive productivity gains for higher-skilled professions. Current economic and institutional reports indicate that while AI presents a clear disruptive threat to administrative and service-oriented sectors, it functions heavily as a complementary tool rather than an outright worker replacement across the broader macroeconomic landscape.

Quantifying the Job Threat

• Total Jobs Exposed: Research by institutions like Politecnico di Milano highlights that AI has the potential to perform tasks equivalent to 3.8 million full-time jobs in Italy over the next decade. Other projections from Confcooperative suggest up to 6 million jobs could see significant restructuring or displacement within ten years.
• Public Sector Exposure: A study by FPA presented at Forum PA estimated that 57% of Italy’s 3.2 million civil servants are highly exposed to AI automation, putting roughly 218,000 specific roles at immediate risk. [
• The Demographic Disparity: Unlike historical industrial automation, which primarily impacted blue-collar physical labor, AI exposure heavily targets white-collar, highly educated workers and female professionals, who disproportionately occupy administrative and specialized corporate tasks in Central and Northern Italy.

Most vs. Least Exposed Occupations

A clear divide exists based on the nature of tasks performed:

Highly Vulnerable Occupations (Substitutive)	Protected/Resilient Occupations (Manual/Physical)
Accounting & Data Entry Clerks	Craft & Related Trades Workers
Secretaries & Administrative Support	Manufacturing & Factory Laborers
Customer Service & Telemarketers	Domestic Cleaners & Hospitality Staff
Translators & Junior Proofreaders	Construction & Mechanical Technicians

Note: In sectors like IT, Finance, and the Legal profession, exposure is very high (scoring 8.0/10), but AI acts predominantly as a complementary booster to expand worker capabilities rather than a pure replacement.

Public Perception and Societal Backlash

• Widespread Pessimism: According to a Pew Research Centre global survey, 55% of Italians expect AI to trigger a major reduction in overall employment and widen domestic wealth inequality over the next 20 years.
• Union Mobilization: Italian labor unions (including SLC CGIL, FISTel CISL, and UILFPC UIL) have actively organized strikes against automated systems and customer service chatbots deployed without employment guarantees or professional retraining strategies.

The Italian Government’s Legislative Response

Italy has pioneered swift regulatory frameworks to balance technological integration with labor safety:

• Workplace Protections (Legislative Decree No. 179/2026): Enacted to align with the European Union AI Act, this decree prohibits corporate automated systems from making independent decisions regarding recruitment, contractual changes, performance evaluation, or dismissals. Critical employment decisions must retain human-in-the-loop oversight.
• The €30 Million Upskilling Shield: The Italian government allocated a €30 million fund administered by the Fondo per la Repubblica Digitale (FRD). One-third is directly set aside to transition individuals in high-risk automation roles, while the remaining balance goes toward training unemployed or economically inactive citizens in advanced digital skills.

https://www.bollettinoadapt.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/the-impact-of-artificial-intelligence-on-italian-workers.pdf

https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-ai-job-market-in-italy

https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/60-per-cent-of-jobs-in-europe-and-italia-are-at-risk-italia-is-in-the-middle-of-the-rankings-AJpSbJIB

https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/the-economic-impact-of-artificial-intelligence-evidence-from-italian-firms/

The diplomatic corps

For the diplomatic corps, AI does not represent a direct threat of widespread job cuts, but rather a profound transformation in how diplomats work, bringing severe security risks and a mandatory overhaul of professional skills.

While a computer cannot replace the human intuition, empathy, and personal trust required for high-level international negotiation, it is fundamentally rewriting the day-to-day operations at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MAECI - Farnesina).

The "New Farnesina" Structural Reform

To address the rise of technologies like AI and shifting global dynamics, Italy implemented a major structural reform of the Farnesina. This structural shift alters the very makeup of the diplomatic corps:

• The Cyber Pillar: The ministry established a brand-new Directorate General for Cyber Issues, Informatics, and Technological Innovation. This integrates AI, digital infrastructure, and data sovereignty directly into the core of Italian foreign policy.
• Opening up the Diplomatic Exam: To recruit the technical minds needed to navigate an AI-driven geopolitical landscape, Italy officially changed its recruitment laws. The famously rigid diplomatic public job comprtition (concorso diplomatico) is now open to graduates of all degree paths (expanding beyond traditional law and political science) and features updated testing on technological and digital security subjects.

Main Operational Risks for Diplomats

• The Deepfake and Impostor Threat: The greatest threat to diplomats is not losing their salary; it is losing their credibility. Sophisticated AI voice-cloning and video deepfakes are actively being weaponized by hostile intelligence actors. For example, threat actors have used AI-cloned voices to impersonate high-ranking foreign ministers and officials to trick foreign diplomats into leaking sensitive data or holding compromise-prone calls.
• Automated Disinformation on a Vast Scale: Diplomatic staff posted at embassies worldwide spend increasing amounts of time monitoring, identifying, and countering highly tailored, AI-generated disinformation campaigns designed to destabilize bilateral relationships or local public opinion.
• Machine Bias in Analysis: Over-reliance on AI-generated executive summaries, geopolitical risk modeling, or trade data can introduce hidden algorithmic biases into sensitive policy recommendations. Human oversight remains legally and practically mandatory to protect critical human judgment.
• How AI is Changing Daily Diplomatic Tasks

Rather than substituting diplomats, AI is acting as an operational accelerator, automating low-level bureaucratic functions so diplomats can focus on geopolitical strategy:

• Consular Automation: AI systems handle high-volume, routine consular services—such as initial visa application screenings, processing registry updates (AIRE), and answering standardized civic inquiries—drastically reducing the administrative burden on embassy staff.
• Real-Time Synthesis: AI tools scan huge volumes of foreign-language media, legislative transcripts, and diplomatic cables in real time, automatically drafting daily localized situational briefings for ambassadors.
• Bilateral Science and Tech Diplomacy: AI itself has become a subject of negotiation. Italy’s diplomatic corps spends increasing energy negotiating bilateral technological protocols. Italy's science attachés actively broker AI-research partnerships with countries like Argentina and Brazil

https://euawareness.org/analytics/the-ai-factor-in-modern-diplomacy/ excellent!

https://www.esteri.it/it/temi/diplomazia_scientifica/programmiesecutivi/accordi_programmi_culturali_tecnologici/