then choose the topics and countries
you are interested in, e.g.
This blog is for students of English at the SIOI in Rome. However, the opinions expressed here are my own and should not be taken to represent those of the SIOI or anyone else.
giovedì 28 febbraio 2019
lunedì 25 febbraio 2019
Two more essay plans
A
possible essay plan on Populism
Is
populism a threat to the liberal international order?
Introduction: Start with a reference to one or two
recent developments relating to the question to show you are up to
date on the issue e.g. the election of Trump, both Macron and the
Yellow Vest movement, Bolsonaro, Brexit, new political groups in
Germany, Austria, Spain, (Italy?) etc...
Line
of argument:
This essay will argue that the threat to the liberal international
order is not populism itself but the unresolved causes of populism.
Introduction:
Give a definition of populism – for, example your own or the one by
the Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde who argues that it it is not
based simply on emotional rhetoric and is not a temporary
opportunistic phenomenon or a detailed ideology but instead has two
essential characteristics. First, it divides the political world into
the 'people' and the political élite, which is corrupt and pursues
its own interests rather than those of the people. Second, populists
believe that politics should be the expression of the 'general will'
of the people (a rather frightening concept if one thinks of the
French Revolution!)
Causes
of the rise of populism – the failure of traditional parties of the
Right and Left to guarantee the prosperity (employment and a moderate
rise in incomes) that they had previously guaranteed for the middle
and lower classes. The loss of manufacturing jobs in developed
economies and stagnant salaries and growing income inequality. The
lack of employment opportunities for the younger generation,
unemployment or underemployment (the Yellow Vest movement).
Anger with rising immigration, seen as competition, a downward
pressure on incomes and a threat to identity.
Consequences
– growing disillusion, scepticism and cynicism regarding the
political élite, 'political correctness' anger with the traditional
parties, seen as self-interested or simply unable to respond to these
challenges, and an anger with international bodies, such as the EU or
UN, the WTO and IMF (for example, the anti-globalization
movement)
also seen as too expensive, too far from the people and corrupt or
not interested in the problems of ordinary people or simply
irrelevant. This has often led to the rise of 'anti-system'
movements, a return to nationalism, a political arena that populists
believe can be controlled by the people (give examples. The new
populists, however, often have little experience of government, and
this has led to to instability in both domestic politics (give an
example) and foreign relations e.g. Trump and NATO allies, Trump and
China, recent relations between Italy and France and a weakening of
the existing international institutions as the US seems to refuse to
want to continue to be the guarantor of the system.
Conclusion
– all this is a real threat to international cooperation and the
effectiveness of international institutions, given that populist
movements tend to prioritize national issues and solutions, at a time
when many of our problems are of a global, or at least international
nature and can only be successfully dealt with at that level.
However, the problem is not populism itself but the underlying causes
which seem to be our failure at the national, regional (EU) and
global level to manage the economic and social effects of
globalization in a way that reassures people about social stability
and their prospects and their children's prospects for the future.
A
possible essay plan on the role of the new media in international
affairs.
Introduction:
Start with a reference to one or two recent examples of social media
and their use and effect on international affairs. Then give a fairly
broad definition of the new media to include the Internet, everything
on it that aims at communicating news and ideas, social media, smart
phones, tablets and PCs as ways of accessing the Internet, forwarding
and exchanging information and satellite TV.
Line
of argument:
This essay will argue that the rise of the new media was greeted as
an advance towards a more democratic society that would allow people
to communicate freely across the world and to play a greater role in
politics and international relations. This optimism has now given way
to fears about the misuse of the Web and social media by terrorists,
organized crime and groups or governments seeking to spread fake
news, disinformation and propaganda to mold and manipulate public
opinion. However, the ICT revolution is irreversible and states, laws
and individuals will have to adapt to it and the public will have to
become more skilled at checking the source of information more
carefully.
Explain
that most people with access to the new media now get their
information from a mix of sources, traditional media like TV, web
service providers like Yahoo, social media like Facebook and Twitter
and specific web sites
and groups that they go to or join. This means that organizations,
universities, government ministries, public figures and private
companies as well as the traditional media (TV networks and
newspapers) have all had to go online in order to communicate with
the public (voters, customers or students), promote their activities
and defend themselves. This has led to a more transparent and
responsive society
This
is true for the Foreign Ministry and the diplomatic corps too. Make
this the focus of your essay? This offers great opportunities for
rapid communication within the service and with foreign governments
and embassies, in explaining Italy's position on an issue to the
global public, for providing services to nationals abroad and
foreigners, for cultural diplomacy and for networking in economic
diplomacy. However, it has also made the work of diplomats more
difficult because of the pressure on diplomats for instant reaction
to breaking news, the difficulty of conducting quiet diplomacy and
the danger of whistle-blowing – the Bradley Manning case, the
Edward Snowden case and the Palestine papers case and role satellite
TV broadcaster, Al Jazeera).
Of course the last may also be seen as the mark of a free society,
depending on your point of view about the particular case and
information released.
Explain
with clear examples from current affairs how internet and the social
media can create open web communities where users can link up and
become better informed about specific questions, and that this is
particularly important to dissident groups in a society where access
to information via the traditional media may be in the hands of the
government (Egypt during the Arab spring, also role of satellite TV).
Point out that in the end it can assist but can not substitute direct
action.
Explain
that Internet and social media can also be used by closed web
communities like terrorists to recruit and indoctrinate. Give
examples, e.g. ISIS. It can also be used by criminal organizations.
Give examples, e.g. from
hiring
a hitman on Facebook
in Peru to scams and cybercrime involving stealing credit details or
industrial espionage. It
can also be used by groups or countries seeking to spread fake news
and manipulate public opinion, the alleged interference in the 2016
US elections by Russia. Point out that governments in one-party or
authoritarian states can use the web for propaganda purposes and to
infiltrate groups on the social media to monitor or entrap users
(China, Russia and Venezuela and 1984). They can even close down
sites and have become more skilled in blocking the social media and
access to Internet completely if they feel threatened (China, North
Korea).
Conclusion:
The Internet and social media are here to stay and as their potential
for good and bad becomes clearer, free societies and individuals will
have to work and become more sophisticated to take advantage of the
opportunities they offer without becoming the victims of those who
aim to use ICTs in order to mislead, indoctrinate or spy on them.
Governments, international bodies, web service providers like Yahoo
and social media like Facebook and Twitter will all have to become
more responsible and, above all, more effective in monitoring content
and activity on the new media without imposing unjustified censorship
or surveillance. If we fail to do this effectively we face a bleak
future in which either many naive IT users continue to be misled or
our freedom may be restricted in a 1984-style scenario.
venerdì 22 febbraio 2019
What are the main questions that need to be resolved in the search for a lasting peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians?
A
few ideas and sources: http://www.mideastweb.org/nutshell.htm
to read for background, and also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2015-03-11/whats-palestinian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/view.timeline.php?timelineID=000031
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rk60vNUJ9Y
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/country-chapters/israel/palestine
Excellent:
Most
recent events
70th
anniversary of Israel’s founding on May 14th 1948; mourning by
Palestinians who regard the same event as their “catastrophe” and
observe May 15 as“Nakba
Day”;
and the transfer of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv on
May 14 by the administration of President Donald Trump.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-04/israel-palestine-gaza-violence-is-about-to-get-worse
In
December 2018 Brazil’s new President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he will
follow the lead of the U.S. and move the country’s embassy in
Israel to Jerusalem.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/bolsonaro-to-move-brazil-s-embassy-to-jerusalem-netanyahu-says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/bolsonaro-to-move-brazil-s-embassy-to-jerusalem-netanyahu-says
Some
background
President
Mahmoud
Abbas,
the Palestinian
leader,
speaking at the UN General Assembly, formally requested full
membership for his as yet undefined country on 23rd
September 2011. However, the Security Council vote was called off
when it became clear that the US would use its veto to block this
request. Palestine is recognised by about 130 members of the General
Assembly and UNESCO admitted Palestine as a member in October 2011.
The Palestinian move at the UN encouraged the international community
to try to re-launch direct Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
Some experts saw the prisoner swap (October 18th
2011)
between Israel and Hamas as a positive move in this direction, but
talks failed to resume during the summer of 2012 despite
international efforts.
On
September 27th
2012 President Abbas
asked the UN to grant Palestine
‘non-member observer state’ (which will allow Palestine to join
more UN agencies) and warned that time was running out on a 2-state
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Israel continues with
its settlement policy. In November of that year the UN voted
overwhelmingly in favor.
On July 30th 2013 US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that Israel and the Palestinians had started direct negotiations and made a commitment to serious dialogue over the next 9 months, with talks aimed at reaching a lasting settlement and resolution of all the outstanding questions by 29th April 2014. Little real progress seems to have been made during negotiations despite the release of 3 batches of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Various proposals for land exchange seem to have been made and discussed, but on many of the key issues neither side made significant concessions. For example, on 6 November, Israeli negotiators said there will not be a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders and that the Separation Wall will be a boundary. Israel also made no commitment to accepting the right of return for all Palestinian refugees and the Palestinians repeated their refusal to recognize Israel as a specifically Jewish state. Abbas dismissed this demand, pointing out that the Palestinians had already agreed to recognition of the State of Israel, both in 1988 and in the 1993 Oslo Accords. He added that neither Jordan nor Egypt, with whom Israel had made peace treaties, had been asked to recognize Israel's Jewish character. He said the Palestinians would never accept Israel as a 'religious state' since, it would damage the rights of Israel's Palestinian minority and “to accept it now as a Jewish state would compromise the claims of millions of Palestinian refugees (to return) whose families fled the fighting that followed Israel's creation in 1948 and were not allowed to return."
The Israeli government made the release of a fourth batch of prisoners conditional on an extension of the negotiation deadline beyond April but went ahead with approval of plans to build further homes in the settlements on the West Bank. It was reported that Abbas then set 3 conditions for extending peace talks beyond the April 29 deadline; that the borders of a future Palestinian state be dealt with during the first three months of the extended talks, a complete freeze on all settlement construction, and the release without deportation of the fourth batch of Palestinian prisoners, including Israeli-Arabs. On 23 April 2014, the rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah agreed to form a unity government and hold new elections. Netanyahu said Abbas would have to choose between peace with Israel and peace with Hamas while Palestinian officials said it was an internal matter and peace would be reinforced by uniting the Palestinian people. Israel then suspended peace talks, saying it "will not negotiate with a Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a terrorist organization that calls for Israel's destruction".
On 12 June 2014, three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped in Gush Etzion, in the West Bank, as they were hitchhiking to their homes. The Israel Defense Forces initiated Operation Brother's Keeper in search of the three teenagers. As part of the operation, in the following 11 days Israel arrested around 350 Palestinians, including nearly all of Hamas' West Bank leaders. Five Palestinian militants were killed during the military operation. On 30 June, search teams found the bodies of the three missing teenagers in a field north-west of Hebron. They had apparently been killed shortly after their abduction. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a tough response to the killings. On August 20, 2014, a Hamas official, Salah al-Aruri, said that the organization's armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was behind the kidnapping and murder. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal said that some Hamas members had kidnapped and murdered the Israeli teenagers but stated that they were not acting on orders from the Hamas leadership, which he said, were "not aware of this action taken by this group of Hamas members in advance".
On 8 July 2014, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched ‘Operation Protective Edge’ against the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. Seven weeks of Israeli air strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks, in addition to shelling and fighting in the ground invasion and cross-border tunnel attacks, left more than 2,100 people dead, most of them Palestinians.
The stated aim of the Israeli operation was to stop rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, which non-Hamas factions had begun following the Israeli crackdown on Hamas in the West Bank (sparked by the kidnapping and murder of 3 Israeli teenagers by Hamas members, see above)), and which Hamas itself began, following an Israeli airstrike on 6 July which killed seven Hamas militants in Khan Yunis. On 17 July, the operation was expanded to a ground invasion with the stated aim of destroying Gaza's tunnel system.
By 26 August, the IDF reported that Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other militant groups had fired 4,500 rockets and mortars from Gaza into Israel, while the IDF attacked 5,263 targets in Gaza; at least 34 known tunnels were destroyed and two-thirds of Hamas's 10,000-rocket arsenal was used up or destroyed. Several ceasefires (including one on 5 August, during which all Israeli soldiers were withdrawn from the Gaza Strip) fell apart or expired. On 26 August, an open-ended ceasefire was announced. It seems to be holding. As some Gazans began returning to their homes and rebuilding, the international community was faced with a situation in which the current prospects for the two-state solution seem very slim. On 25th September Hamas and Fatah signed a new agreement to share power in governing Gaza, but this is not the first agreement of this kind and the problem is reaching practical compromises in implementing this pact.
Between 2,000 and 2,143 Gazans were killed (including 495–578 children) and between 10,895 and 11,100 were wounded, while 66 IDF soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians and 1 Thai civilian were killed and 450 IDF soldiers and 80 Israeli civilians were wounded. The Gaza Health Ministry, the UN and human rights groups say 70–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israel states 50% were civilians. On 5 August 2014 the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) stated that 520,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (approximately 30% of its population) may have been displaced, of whom 485,000 needed emergency food assistance and 273,000 were taking shelter in 90 UN-run schools. 17,200 Gazan homes were totally destroyed or severely damaged, and 37,650 homes have suffered damage but are still inhabitable. In Israel, an estimated 5,000to 8,000 citizens fled their homes due to the threat of rocket and mortar attacks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict
According to Walla!, from January 2015 until April 26, 172 attacks against the Jerusalem Border Police and SWAT teams were recorded. 148 Molotov cocktails and 15 explosive devices were thrown at Border Police, 1 shooting incident, 4 stabbing attempts or attacks and 4 "car rampage"attacks (attempted or actualized) were launched. Many policemen were injured in these clashes.
According to OCHA, from January 1 to 22 April 2015, at least 8,139 trees and saplings planted by Palestinians were uprooted or vandalized by Israeli settlers. Israeli search and arrest operations in the Palestinian territories, which averaged 75 per week earlier, rose to 86 per week in the first five months of 2015. According to the same source, averaging statistics from January through to June, 2 Israelis were injured and, excluding settler assaults, 40 Palestinians were injured by Israeli forces, per week. In the Hebron governorate alone from January to June, 550 Palestinians, among them 105 teenagers, were arrested, and 225 sentenced to administrative detention without trial.However, the UN and US seemed ready to try again.http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/
How much are the prospects for negotiation affected by other developments in the area? IS is now present in the Sinai desert fighting Egypt’s forces. IS aims to overthrow the Egyptian secular government, destroy Israel, and, although supported by some (ex-?) members of Hamas, also intends to destroy Hamas itself. Given the collapse of Syria and Lebanon’s preoccupation with the civil war in Syria and the wave of refugees, does this turmoil represent a growing radicalization of the Arab world and a threat to Israel’s existence, or an opportunity for Israel to create informal alliances with secular governments and parties in the area that now see Israel as the lesser threat? IS negotiating a settlement with the Palestinians now less or more urgent?http://www.timesofisrael.com/un-chief-tries-to-breathe-fresh-life-into-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/http://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-officials-reject-netanyahus-call-for-renewal-of-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-willing-to-meet-abbas-for-peace-talks-right-now/
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_Gaza_Agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping_and_murder_of_Mohammed_Abu_Khdeir http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict http://online.wsj.com/articles/cease-fire-between-israel-and-hamas-holds-1409140924
also:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/11/united-nations-delays-palestinian-statehood-vote http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/unesco-votes-to-admit-palestine-over-us-objections/2011/10/31/gIQAMleYZM_story.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19746994 http://www.cnbc.com/id/49198865
For the current level of international recognition of Palestine see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine http://www.timesofisrael.com/ban-ki-moon-urges-arab-states-to-push-for-renewed-israeli-palestinian-negotiations/ http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=42551&Cr=palestin&Cr1#.UFYMFa502mA
On July 30th 2013 US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that Israel and the Palestinians had started direct negotiations and made a commitment to serious dialogue over the next 9 months, with talks aimed at reaching a lasting settlement and resolution of all the outstanding questions by 29th April 2014. Little real progress seems to have been made during negotiations despite the release of 3 batches of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Various proposals for land exchange seem to have been made and discussed, but on many of the key issues neither side made significant concessions. For example, on 6 November, Israeli negotiators said there will not be a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders and that the Separation Wall will be a boundary. Israel also made no commitment to accepting the right of return for all Palestinian refugees and the Palestinians repeated their refusal to recognize Israel as a specifically Jewish state. Abbas dismissed this demand, pointing out that the Palestinians had already agreed to recognition of the State of Israel, both in 1988 and in the 1993 Oslo Accords. He added that neither Jordan nor Egypt, with whom Israel had made peace treaties, had been asked to recognize Israel's Jewish character. He said the Palestinians would never accept Israel as a 'religious state' since, it would damage the rights of Israel's Palestinian minority and “to accept it now as a Jewish state would compromise the claims of millions of Palestinian refugees (to return) whose families fled the fighting that followed Israel's creation in 1948 and were not allowed to return."
The Israeli government made the release of a fourth batch of prisoners conditional on an extension of the negotiation deadline beyond April but went ahead with approval of plans to build further homes in the settlements on the West Bank. It was reported that Abbas then set 3 conditions for extending peace talks beyond the April 29 deadline; that the borders of a future Palestinian state be dealt with during the first three months of the extended talks, a complete freeze on all settlement construction, and the release without deportation of the fourth batch of Palestinian prisoners, including Israeli-Arabs. On 23 April 2014, the rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah agreed to form a unity government and hold new elections. Netanyahu said Abbas would have to choose between peace with Israel and peace with Hamas while Palestinian officials said it was an internal matter and peace would be reinforced by uniting the Palestinian people. Israel then suspended peace talks, saying it "will not negotiate with a Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a terrorist organization that calls for Israel's destruction".
On 12 June 2014, three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped in Gush Etzion, in the West Bank, as they were hitchhiking to their homes. The Israel Defense Forces initiated Operation Brother's Keeper in search of the three teenagers. As part of the operation, in the following 11 days Israel arrested around 350 Palestinians, including nearly all of Hamas' West Bank leaders. Five Palestinian militants were killed during the military operation. On 30 June, search teams found the bodies of the three missing teenagers in a field north-west of Hebron. They had apparently been killed shortly after their abduction. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a tough response to the killings. On August 20, 2014, a Hamas official, Salah al-Aruri, said that the organization's armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was behind the kidnapping and murder. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal said that some Hamas members had kidnapped and murdered the Israeli teenagers but stated that they were not acting on orders from the Hamas leadership, which he said, were "not aware of this action taken by this group of Hamas members in advance".
On 8 July 2014, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched ‘Operation Protective Edge’ against the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. Seven weeks of Israeli air strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks, in addition to shelling and fighting in the ground invasion and cross-border tunnel attacks, left more than 2,100 people dead, most of them Palestinians.
The stated aim of the Israeli operation was to stop rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, which non-Hamas factions had begun following the Israeli crackdown on Hamas in the West Bank (sparked by the kidnapping and murder of 3 Israeli teenagers by Hamas members, see above)), and which Hamas itself began, following an Israeli airstrike on 6 July which killed seven Hamas militants in Khan Yunis. On 17 July, the operation was expanded to a ground invasion with the stated aim of destroying Gaza's tunnel system.
By 26 August, the IDF reported that Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other militant groups had fired 4,500 rockets and mortars from Gaza into Israel, while the IDF attacked 5,263 targets in Gaza; at least 34 known tunnels were destroyed and two-thirds of Hamas's 10,000-rocket arsenal was used up or destroyed. Several ceasefires (including one on 5 August, during which all Israeli soldiers were withdrawn from the Gaza Strip) fell apart or expired. On 26 August, an open-ended ceasefire was announced. It seems to be holding. As some Gazans began returning to their homes and rebuilding, the international community was faced with a situation in which the current prospects for the two-state solution seem very slim. On 25th September Hamas and Fatah signed a new agreement to share power in governing Gaza, but this is not the first agreement of this kind and the problem is reaching practical compromises in implementing this pact.
Between 2,000 and 2,143 Gazans were killed (including 495–578 children) and between 10,895 and 11,100 were wounded, while 66 IDF soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians and 1 Thai civilian were killed and 450 IDF soldiers and 80 Israeli civilians were wounded. The Gaza Health Ministry, the UN and human rights groups say 70–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israel states 50% were civilians. On 5 August 2014 the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) stated that 520,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (approximately 30% of its population) may have been displaced, of whom 485,000 needed emergency food assistance and 273,000 were taking shelter in 90 UN-run schools. 17,200 Gazan homes were totally destroyed or severely damaged, and 37,650 homes have suffered damage but are still inhabitable. In Israel, an estimated 5,000to 8,000 citizens fled their homes due to the threat of rocket and mortar attacks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict
According to Walla!, from January 2015 until April 26, 172 attacks against the Jerusalem Border Police and SWAT teams were recorded. 148 Molotov cocktails and 15 explosive devices were thrown at Border Police, 1 shooting incident, 4 stabbing attempts or attacks and 4 "car rampage"attacks (attempted or actualized) were launched. Many policemen were injured in these clashes.
According to OCHA, from January 1 to 22 April 2015, at least 8,139 trees and saplings planted by Palestinians were uprooted or vandalized by Israeli settlers. Israeli search and arrest operations in the Palestinian territories, which averaged 75 per week earlier, rose to 86 per week in the first five months of 2015. According to the same source, averaging statistics from January through to June, 2 Israelis were injured and, excluding settler assaults, 40 Palestinians were injured by Israeli forces, per week. In the Hebron governorate alone from January to June, 550 Palestinians, among them 105 teenagers, were arrested, and 225 sentenced to administrative detention without trial.However, the UN and US seemed ready to try again.http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/
How much are the prospects for negotiation affected by other developments in the area? IS is now present in the Sinai desert fighting Egypt’s forces. IS aims to overthrow the Egyptian secular government, destroy Israel, and, although supported by some (ex-?) members of Hamas, also intends to destroy Hamas itself. Given the collapse of Syria and Lebanon’s preoccupation with the civil war in Syria and the wave of refugees, does this turmoil represent a growing radicalization of the Arab world and a threat to Israel’s existence, or an opportunity for Israel to create informal alliances with secular governments and parties in the area that now see Israel as the lesser threat? IS negotiating a settlement with the Palestinians now less or more urgent?http://www.timesofisrael.com/un-chief-tries-to-breathe-fresh-life-into-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/http://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-officials-reject-netanyahus-call-for-renewal-of-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-willing-to-meet-abbas-for-peace-talks-right-now/
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_Gaza_Agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping_and_murder_of_Mohammed_Abu_Khdeir http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict http://online.wsj.com/articles/cease-fire-between-israel-and-hamas-holds-1409140924
also:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/11/united-nations-delays-palestinian-statehood-vote http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/unesco-votes-to-admit-palestine-over-us-objections/2011/10/31/gIQAMleYZM_story.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19746994 http://www.cnbc.com/id/49198865
For the current level of international recognition of Palestine see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine http://www.timesofisrael.com/ban-ki-moon-urges-arab-states-to-push-for-renewed-israeli-palestinian-negotiations/ http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=42551&Cr=palestin&Cr1#.UFYMFa502mA
Italy
Con
il Ministro Avidgor Lieberman, che ha invitato Gentiloni ad una
prossima visita in Israele, è stata confermata la solidità dei
rapporti bilaterali e l’interesse reciproco a svilupparli
ulteriormente. Il Ministro Gentiloni ha auspicato che possa essere
presto ripreso il negoziato per il processo di pace in Medio Oriente
e ha riaffermato la tradizionale posizione dell’Italia che auspica
nuovi passi verso l’unica soluzione possibile che è quella dei due
Stati.
http://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2014/11/20141103_telminpolisralb.html
3/11/2014
Mar.
16, 2015
-
Israeli
Prime Minister Netanyahu Says No to Two-State Solution on Eve of
Election"Under pressure on the eve of a surprisingly close election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Monday repeated his appeal to right-wing voters, declaring that if he was returned to office he would never establish a Palestinian state... The statement reversed Mr. Netanyahu’s endorsement of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a 2009 speech at Bar Ilan University, and fulfilled many world leaders’ suspicions that he was never really serious about peace negotiations."
New York Times "Netanyahu Says No to Statehood for Palestinians," nytimes.com, Mar. 16, 2015
However, in a Mar. 19 interview with NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Andrea Mitchell, Netanyahu claimed that his pre-election statement was not a reversal of policy, but rather a statement about what is realistically possible in the current situation. In the interview, Netanyahu said, "I don't want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution. But for that, circumstances have to change."
May 13, 2015 - The Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New Treaty "The Vatican officially recognized the state of Palestine in a new treaty finalized Wednesday, immediately sparking Israeli ire and accusations that the move hurt peace prospects.
Associated Press (AP)"Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New Treaty," ap.org, May 13, 2015
Oct. 19, 2015 - Since the beginning of the month, at least nine Israelis have been killed, along with 41 Palestinians, 20 of whom Israeli authorities have identified as attackers. The remaining 21 Palestinians died in clashes with Israeli troops… The violence has been dominated by Palestinian teenagers stabbing Israelis in so-called ‘lone wolf’ attacks and without the political and organizational support that existed during the first and second intifadas." ABC News, "What's behind Escalating Violence in Israel," abcnews.go.com, Oct. 19, 2015
October
2017 The Palestinians form a unity government.
Israel
will not negotiate with a Palestinian unity government if Hamas is
involved.
On
7 December 2017 Donald Trump defied overwhelming global opposition by
recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but insisted that the
highly controversial move would not derail his own administration’s
bid to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Two days later at
the UN ambassadors from Britain, France, Italy, Japan, China and more
warned that Trump’s announcement that the United States recognizes
Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is misguided or a threat to peace.
Some called it reckless. Other envoys blasted the U.S. shift as a
violation of past U.N. Security Council resolutions or possibly of
international law.
Italy
http://parstoday.com/it/news/italia-i125987-medio_oriente_alfano_non_possiamo_retrocedere_da_soluzione_dei_due_stati
05/12/17
So
why is a peace settlement to the conflict so important to the
international community?
1)
The perceived threat that this conflict poses to the stability of the
Middle East and to oil supplies
2)
The way it affects the West’s image in the Arab world (and in the
broader Muslim world)
3) As a measure of
the effectiveness of the UN in resolving international disputes (a
basic part of its mandate) and responding to a humanitarian crisis
Possible
preconditions or sticking points for the launch of serious
negotiations (this should be updated in line with current
developments)
1)
Mutual
recognition of both people’s right to an independent state (the
international community and the Quartet’s two-state solution).
Moreover, Israel wants recognition specifically as a Jewish state
(homeland).
(Some
commentators argue that the two-state solution is making no progress
and think the Palestinians should give up claims to an independent
state, ask for unification of the occupied territories with Israel
and for
full Israeli citizenship for all Palestinians,
thus threatening the Jewish popular majority within Israel. The
argument goes that Israel would feel so threatened by such a prospect
that it would be forced to make concessions on a two-state solution.
See ‘The Death and Life of the Two-State Solution by Grant Rumley
and Amir Tibon in Foreign Affairs July/August 2015. However, whether
this is a realistic prospect is unclear. Certainly it is not the
position of the international community or the Palestinian movement
at the moment).
2) A truce and then
a lasting cease-fire, a cessation of terrorist attacks and acts of
violence to provide time and the right atmosphere to negotiate.
3) A further
good-will release of prisoners (this happened with the exchange
in 2011 of an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas for about 1000
Palestinian prisoners. More prisoners were released during the
2013-14 negotiations.
4)
A freeze on Israeli settlement building (accepted by the US but no
longer by the Israeli government) and
a halt to the intimidation and increasing violence by Israeli
settlers. These remain perhaps the Palestinians’ main preconditions
for real talks
5) A reduction in
Israeli road blocks and military outposts on the West bank
6) Israel refuses
to negotiate with a 'unified' Palestinian government which includes
Hamas because Hamas refuses to recognise Israel's right to exist.
Israel also now wants recognition as a specifically Jewish state.
7) There seems to
be no space for negotiation on Jerusalem (December 2017)
Other
elements in a potential negotiation
1)
Perhaps the model should be the 1998 Northern Ireland Peace
Agreement. This would mean starting with the moderates, for the
Palestinians, the President and government of the PA (Al Fatah, which
recognises Israel), in the hope of making progress and so involving
more hard-line groups (Hamas, which does not recognise Israel) later.
However, Fatah and Hamas are now cooperating again and to deal with
one and not the other might be difficult. It is also difficult to see
the current government of Israel as ‘moderate’ compared with the
Yitzhak
Rabin government of the 1990s which negotiated the Oslo Accords.
2) The need for
widespread popular support and consensus building before, during and
after talks.
3) Pressure and
support from the international community, the Quartet, and Arab
countries, to start and make real progress with negotiations
4) Should
negotiation include other Arab states and other issues (e.g. Jordan
and Lebanon as hosts to many Palestinian refugees, Syria because of
the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights)?
5) External factors
– how will the Arab Spring, the protests and demands for greater
freedom and the overthrow of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt
and Libya, and the civil war in Syria, affect the chances of a peace
deal? Will the emergence of conservative Moslem governments in
Tunisia and Egypt make a settlement more or less likely? Could the
civil war in Syria lead to a general conflict in the area involving
Israel? What will be the effect of the success (or defeat) of Islamic
State in Syria, and Iraq and now of its presence in the Sinai desert?
Will Israel launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear
facilities? Is anti-American feeling in the Arab world (for, example,
the killing of the US ambassador to Libya in Benghazi in September
2012) now so strong that the US can no longer act as a mediator?
Israel
continues to see the Iran
Nuclear Deal Framework
of April 2015 (between
the Islamic
Republic of Iran
and a group of world powers: the P5+1,
the permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council
plus Germany,
plus the European
Union)
as a mistake, a threat to the long-term balance of power in the
Middle East and a threat to its own existence.
The
main questions to be resolved
1)
Borders: two states, Israel, and a Palestinian state on the West Bank
(the problem of the status of the Gaza Strip and Hamas which controls
it) Negotiations might begin with the UN Green Line of 1949 and be
based on
progress
made in previous negotiations (e.g. Oslo). This will also require
decisions on existing settlements and what would be done with the
settlers (for statistics on the rapidly rising number of settlers see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_settlement
) (estimated figures, 350,000 in East Jerusalem and 400,000) on the
West Bank and (2)
2) the status of
Jerusalem, which is claimed by both as their capital and has Holy
sites belonging to Judaism, Islam and Christianity. One example of
the nature of the ongoing dispute over settlements and future borders
(and the way these issues are intertwined with other aspects of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict) is the Israeli government’s plans to
build homes for 3,000 settlers in the area known as E1, part of the
internationally-recognised Palestinian inhabited territories. The
Israeli decision to go ahead with these plans seems to be a response
to the UN giving Palestine enhanced observer status and has been met
with widespread Palestinian protests. A settlement in the area would
cut off Arab East Jerusalem from the West Bank.
3) The political
independence and real economic viability of a Palestinian state –
water resources, the Israeli Defence barrier and the damage it did to
the Palestinian economy, the port of Gaza, removal of (some, most,
all and when?) Israeli road blocks and military outposts on the West
Bank, aid from the IC, the UN, (the EU?) and rich Arab states.
This question has direct implications for (4)
4) Future security
in the area. This is the crucial issue for Israel, which sees a
danger in dismantling its defence barrier and then facing new
terrorist attacks. Israel wants a peace settlement which is accepted
by all the Palestinians (and its Arab neighbours) not with 75% of the
Palestinians. Would a compromise also involve the temporary
maintenance of some Israeli road blocks and military outposts within
the newly created Palestinian state for a certain number of years as
a guarantee of security as the Israelis demand?
5)The
‘right of return’ for descendants of the Palestinian refugees of
the 1948 and 1967 wars (now estimated at about 4 million people:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_right_of_return
). And where would they return to?
a) Since 1948 many
live in refugee camps in neighbouring countries ( e.g. 1.9
million as refugees in Jordan, although if one includes Jordanians
citizens of Palestinian descent this figure rises to 2.7 million,
almost half the population of the country)
b)
Many refugees claim the right to return to places which are now
in Israel,
not just on the West Bank
c) Alternatives –
settlement on the West bank in the new Palestinian state? Or some
form of economic compensation? Could some Palestinians be allowed to
return to Israel and become Israeli citizens if they have documentary
proof of land ownership in the past?
Conclusion
1)
Today may be a difficult moment compared to 20 years ago (the Oslo
Accords, 1993, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords
and the Taba summit of 2001 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taba_Summit
)
with
a conservative Israeli government today, a fragile and still not
fully united Palestinian leadership, and a radicalizationof
positions
and aspirations on both sides. Realistically, it is hard to be very
optimistic. In fact, some experts argue that the Palestinians and the
Arab world in general continue to regard Israel as a ‘colonial’
outpost (presumably of the West), a foreign imposition, and thus at a
fundamental level they reject Israel’s right to exist, or its right
to exist as a specifically Jewish state, and therefore question the
basis of the two-state solution. The Israelis see the foundation of
Israel as their ‘return’ to their homeland after
1800
years, and the creation of a necessary safe-haven for Jews after the
pogroms of the 19th
century and the Holocaust of WWII. They often regard the Palestinians
as simply Arabs (who can therefore become citizens of any Arab state)
rather than a specific Arab people with legitimate aspirations to
their own independent homeland.
2)
In any case, there is a clear need for popular support for the peace
process. Political leaders can lead, but a successful peace process
would require genuine and growing consensus and support among both
populations. Without that basis little progress can be made, and it
is not clear that there is a genuine desire for peace at the popular
level on either side at the moment, not if ‘genuine desire’ means
accepting
the price of compromise and making real concessions.
In surveys a majority on both sides says it favours peace, but each
thinks it is the other side that must make concessions, not their
own.
3) Link back to the
start by explaining the most recent moves by the international
community, and the latest news regarding negotiations or prospects
for negotiations.
Some
useful sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Palestinian_territories#Population
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugee#Refugee_statistics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_and_Muslim_countries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/09/16/3106996/palestinian-economic-protests-point-to-uncertain-future-for-pa-israel
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/07/05/palestinian-statehood-showdown-at-un/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_negotiations_between_Israel_and_the_Palestinians_(2010-2011)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugee#Refugee_statistics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_and_Muslim_countries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/09/16/3106996/palestinian-economic-protests-point-to-uncertain-future-for-pa-israel
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/07/05/palestinian-statehood-showdown-at-un/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_negotiations_between_Israel_and_the_Palestinians_(2010-2011)
Israel
declared its independence in May 1948 and was recognized by the USA
and Soviet Union in the same month (by Britain and France in January
1949, Italy in February 1949, and Germany in September 1952). It
was admitted to the UN in May 1949 under UNSC resolution 273.The
Holocaust
certainly played a crucial role in determining the attitude of the
West and Soviet Union, and the UN’s recognition of Israel. Despite
growing sympathy for the Palestinians and sharp criticism of Israeli
actions and intransigence over the last 2 decades the EU continues to
stand by Israel’s fundamental right to exist in security and to be
an accepted member of the international community and the UN, and it
supports the Road Map, sponsored by the quartet, which means direct
negotiations leading to a 2-state solution. It is not clear if the
Oslo Accord(s) would provide a starting point for negotiations or if
the 2 sides would prefer to start from scratch [
ripartire da zero].)
public
opinion:
latest:http://972mag.com/france-24-reports-on-israeli-palestinian-direct-negotiations/1165/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/israel-palestinian-talks_n_1235849.html
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/09/08/abbas-announces-another-un-bid-for-palestinian-statehood/
and for the events of the last year and the official French position:http://www.franceonu.org/france-at-the-united-nations/geographic-files/middle-east/israel-palestine-378/article/israel-palestine
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/israel-palestinian-talks_n_1235849.html
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/09/08/abbas-announces-another-un-bid-for-palestinian-statehood/
and for the events of the last year and the official French position:http://www.franceonu.org/france-at-the-united-nations/geographic-files/middle-east/israel-palestine-378/article/israel-palestine
Israel's
nuclear detterence
Negotiations
Demographics
for the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
Israel
In Israel in January 2019 the total population is 8,972,000. This is a more than 10-fold increase
compared to when Israel was founded in 1948. Of the Israeli population:
the Jewish population makes up 6,668,000 (74.3%);
1,878,000 (20.9%) are Arabs;
and, those identified as "others" (non-Arab Christians, Baha'i, etc) make up 4.8% of the population
(426,000 people). In addition to these numbers, there are approximately 170,000 people living in
Israel who are neither citizens nor permanent residents.
In May 2014, the Israeli Housing Minister Uri Ariel, who himself lives in the West Bank settlement
of Kfar Adumim, put the settler population at up to 750,000: 400,000 in the West Bank and up to
350,000 in East Jerusalem. The overall population grew by 2% in 2018.
The population of Israel is forecast to reach 10 million by 2024 or sooner.
Israel welcomed approximately 40,000 new immigrants in 2018 with most immigrants arriving in
Israel from France, the Ukraine, Russia, and the United States .
Of
Israeli Jews, 44.3% self-identify as secular, 11% simply as
religious, and 9% as ultra-Orthodox.
Those of European and American ancestry make up about 2.2 million (36%) of the Jewish
population while Africans fill out another 14.5% and Asians are 11.2%.
Out of the 14.5 million Jewish people in the world, 46% reside in Israel.
In the US in 2016 there were 5,700,000 Jews
In France 460,000
In Canada 388,000
In the UK 290,568
In Russia 179,000
In Argentina 180,700
In Australia 113,500
In Germany 117,000
In Brazil 94,000
In Italy 27,400
However figures for the global and country by country ‘Enlarged Jewish Population’ (a looser
definition based on ancestry and members of Jewish households are much higher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country
see also: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Judaism/jewpop.html
The
Palestinians
Total
population worldwide est. 13 million in January 2019
Palestinian
territories
total
4,816,503 in 2016 (probably
5,134,230
in
January 2019
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/palestine-population/)
West
Bank 2,935,368 (there are 19
UNRWA refugee camps with 228,560 Palestinian refugees, and 774,167
registered refugees in total)
Gaza
1,881,135 (there are 8
UNRWA refugee camps with 560,964 Palestinian refugees, and 1,276,929
registered refugees in total)
Israel
1,878,000
Global
total figure for Palestinians
descended from refugees 4,950,000
refugees
in Jordan – an estimate including Jordanian citizens of Palestinian
descent
2,140,000–3,240,000
(2009)
refugees
in Syria, 560,000 (2016) but where are they now? Perhaps 200,000
still in Syria and 100,000 in Europe
refugees
n Lebanon 458,369 (2016)
in
Chile 500,000 (2009)
in
Saudi Arabia 400,000 (2016)
in
Qatar 295,000 (2016)
in
Iraq 57,000 (2009)
in
the US 255,000 (2008)
Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt
Is
it reasonable for Israel to insist on being a Jewish state?
Let’s
start with another country:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192614417586774.html
and
now Israel, the Palestinians and the wider Muslim world:
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