https://www.adnkronos.com/aki-en/business/2018/10/25/major-investment-opportunities-for-italy-africa-says-moavero_NT8qoOZ6Ij3ay7DGzi4rTI.html
https://www.iccrom.org/news/italy-africa-conference-farnesina-italiafrica
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/02/08/italy-making-its-way-back-to-africa/
For
a general perspective on the problems see:
Poverty
and migration
for
climate change and Africa and its role as a driver of migration –
see section 17 below
Background
Arab
North Africa (the Maghreb and Egypt) is, or at least was until
recently (until the unrest resulting from the Arab Spring), generally
slightly richer than sub-Saharan Africa and faced different problems
(e.g. youth unemployment and a widespread demand for change expressed
through the events of the Arab Spring) while economic and social
problems, apart from rising food prices, were less severe. However,
with the tensions in Egypt and post-regime faction-fighting in Libya,
stability in this region is now threatened and the economic situation
has deteriorated (e.g. hitting oil exports from Libya and tourism in
Egypt and Tunisia). This is also true, but to a greater extent, for
the Sahel and Horn of Africa region (the transition area between Arab
North Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa where the two
cultures meet and mix) which is now struggling with the spread of
radical Islamist movements. That being said, the focus of these notes
is mainly sub-Saharan Africa proper, although some of what is said
also applies to the Sahel and Maghreb regions.
60 years ago much
of Asia was poorer than sub-Saharan Africa. There are still many poor
areas in Asia, but today significant areas of Asia are richer than
sub-Saharan Africa. So what went wrong in Africa? Why did sub-Saharan
Africa not grow economically the way parts of Asia grew? Its colonial
past is a partial but perhaps not an adequate explanation since Asia
and South America also suffered from European domination and
exploitation but their economies have grown more rapidly. Can this
situation be changed? And is it, in fact, already changing?
One
can argue the case both ways. So it may be useful to start by looking
at what are traditionally seen as some of the area’s main
difficulties:
1) Poverty – According to GDP (PPP) per capita
statistics from the World Bank for 2017 sub-Saharan Africa is by far
the poorest region of the world. In the list of states most African
states are in the bottom half (by contrast, most of North Africa is
in the middle range). According to World Bank estimates (published
2016), the share of Africans who are poor fell from 56% in 1990 to
43% in 2012. However, because of population growth many more people
are poor, the report says. The most optimistic scenario shows about
330 million poor in 2012, up from about 280 million in 1990, an
increase of 50 million). Poverty reduction has been slowest in
fragile countries, the report notes, and rural areas remain much
poorer, although the urban-rural gap has narrowed. Since 2015 the
majority of the world's poor are again in Africa (413 million people in 2015).
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/11/21/figure-of-the-week-understanding-poverty-in-africa/
https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/accelerating-poverty-reduction-in-africa-in-five-charts
See
the section below on the MDGs in Are
Things Changing?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita
hhttps://www.dw.com/en/world-bank-report-poverty-rates-remain-high-in-africa/a-45926382
ttp://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report
https://www.un.org/africarenewal/sites/www.un.org.africarenewal/files/Poverty%20in%20a%20Rising%20Africa%20Overview.pdf
Thus
many other problems are made much more
serious because of the scale of poverty
in sub-Saharan Africa and a consequent lack of domestic funds to deal
with the challenges. Africa
as a whole represents
about 3.0% of global GDP but about 16.64% of world population (1.30
billion ( Jan 2019 with an annual growth rate of 2.49% and thus a
forecast of 2.52 billion in 2050).
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/
Even
though GDP growth for Africa is estimated at 3.1% for 2018 and
forecast at 3.6% for 2019, population growth itself 2.55% in 2018)
contributes to poverty levels by reducing this GDP growth when
measured as GDP income per capita.
Africa's
population is the youngest among all the continents; the average age
in 2019 was 19.4, when the worldwide median age was 30.1.
And
population in some of the poorest countries is forecast to rise
rapidly (see point 14 below). This will hold down growth in per
capita income, and feeding and providing for their citizens will be a
serious challenge for the countries
affected:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2341084/Global-population-soar-11-billion-2100-African-population-quadruples.html
2)
The most detrimental consequence of the colonial period in Africa may
be the borders of many of its modern states. These reflect European
colonial administrative areas and do not reflect ethnic, religious or
linguistic divisions in Africa. This has led, and leads to ethnic and
religious tensions, conflicts, civil wars and wars of secession. This
results in internally displaced persons, refugees and migration.
Though the number of conflicts and civil wars has diminished
significantly in the last 15 years, about a third of sub-Saharan
African countries are still involved in violent conflict,
insurgencies or human rights violations by a repressive government.
As a result, the rule of law is fragile in many areas.
3)
There
is a serious lack of infrastructure and what there is may be in poor
condition. A city on the coast of Africa is linked to the globalized
economy by its position (although it may not have adequate port
facilities) but, without an adequate road system, towns and rural
areas inland are cut off from each other and the coast. This creates
problems for international and domestic trade and also for the
delivery of aid. It may help to explain why only 10.5% of Africa’s
trade is with other African countries.
https://www.raconteur.net/business-innovation/africa-lack-infrastructure-leaves-millions-poverty-despite-potential
4)
There are some failed states and failing states (i.e. on the verge of
failure) where weak governments are unable to enforce the rule of law
against armed bands, the product of widespread poverty and ethnic
tensions (e.g. Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic). The
situation in the Sahel region remains critical.
5)
Poor governance, government corruption (bribes, favoritism)
unemployment and a relatively rich ruling class elite which is often
cut off from the population and indifferent to it, and manages to
take a large part of the wealth produced. There is also a lot of
red-tape (bureaucracy), a legal system that does not work for the
poor and a democratic deficit. Political and administrative
institutions may be absent, or inefficient, or work mainly to protect
the interests of the ruling elite. This is often seen as the main
barrier to long-term, equitable economic and social progress. With
greater democratization this may be starting to change. With the
spread of multiparty democracy political leaders have begun to
respond to the needs of the electorate instead of representing only
the interests of the local ruling class. One example is that of
allowing the national currency to exchange at a more realistic lower
rate. This has benefited farmers whose exports have become more
competitive.
6)
The health challenge and mortality rates – the recent Ebola crisis,
HIV/AIDS and other epidemic and common diseases such as widespread
Malaria, Cholera, Tuberculosis, Yellow Fever, Sleeping Sickness,
Dengue fever, Hepatitis, Onchocerciasis or “river blindness”,
Meningitis, Typhoid etc.. continue to have a devastating impact in
many areas of Africa. There is also the threat of starvation in some
areas and the much greater threat of widespread malnutrition.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area of the world hardest hit by the
combination of diseases, malnourishment and thus a weakened immune
system, and the absence or scarcity of basic resources, medical care,
facilities, prevention (e.g. vaccinations) as well as funds for
medical care, to deal with them. Health care and nutrition education
is obviously also linked to poverty and a lack of general education.
People with HIV/AIDS and other debilitating diseases are often very
young, so there are and will be for some time fewer healthy workers
and more sick people to look after in the worst hit areas. They are
often socially abandoned or
shunned.http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/
In
December 2013 there was an Ebola crisis which expanded rapidly and
was a terrible example of the kind of health challenges Africa faces.
As well as lives it also hit the economy of much of West
Africa:According
to the United Nations Development Group (UNDG), West Africa as a
whole may have lost an average of at least US$3.6 billion per year
between 2014 and 2017, due to a decrease in trade, closing of
borders, flight cancellations and reduced Foreign Direct Investment
and tourism activity, fueled by stigma.
This has also had an
important impact on human development. The region’s per capita
income is expected to fall by US$18.00 per year between 2015 and
2017. In Côte d’Ivoire, the poverty rate has risen by at least 0.5
percentage points because of Ebola, while in Senegal, the proportion
of people living below the national poverty line could increase by up
to 1.8 percent in 2014. In addition, food insecurity in countries
such as Mali, and Guinea-Bissau is expected to
increase.
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/03/12/west-african-economies-feeling-ripple-effects-of-ebola-says-un.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22270164
8)
Africa’s economies are generally based too narrowly on a limited
number of commodities, both agricultural products and raw materials.
Thus they are particularly subject to price fluctuations on the
international market. Much of the area’s recent growth may have
been a result of rising commodity prices and the economic problems of
the last 2 years may have been due to the decline in commodity
prices. IF these prices rise again growth may return, but this does
not necessarily represent real economic development. Despite
significant GDP growth in a number of African countries over the last
decade, there has been much less growth in manufacturing, a key
indicator for long-term growth (in Asia for example). For many
African countries manufacturing still accounts for the same limited
share of the economy as it did in the 1970s.
9)
Some
experts claim there is enormous and continuing exploitation by
foreign companies with the cooperation of local elites. However, many
commentators stress instead the low level of economic activity in
Africa as the fundamental problem. See GDP tables again. As mentioned
above, Africa’s exports represent only 2-3% of the world’s
exports ( See the 2013 Africa Competitiveness Report), but Africa has
16% of the world’s population. Foreign Direct Investment in Africa
fell slightly in 2016 (to about $60 billion a year) but essentially
remain at low levels.
11)
There is often a bad business environment for both domestic and
foreign investors / high taxes /a need to pay bribes / insecurity of
ownership. Changing this is a prerequisite for attracting the kind of
direct foreign investment from richer countries which has been basic
in achieving economic take-off in other developing countries. As a
result much Western aid is now linked to 'conditionality' (See point
3
below).https://www.biznews.com/sa-investing/2017/06/07/bad-politics-broken-economy-south-africa/
13)
Despite advances in both education (secondary school enrolment up by
50% between 2000 and 2008 but still only 11 out of 26 countries with
more than 50% of children of age enrolled in secondary school in
2012) and health (life expectancy up 10% in the last decade) literacy
rates remain low and basic services may be limited due to bad work
practices, e.g. closed schools which should be open, doctors who are
largely unavailable.
https://en.unesco.org/gem-report/sites/gem-report/files/regional_overview_SSA_en.pdf
14)
There is the constant danger of humanitarian crises as many
populations live at a subsistence level, with poor farming techniques
and without food security. They are, therefore, at risk from natural
disasters (drought, famine, desertification) and these may intensify
with climate change. There is rapid population growth in many areas
e.g. DRC, Ethiopia (32 million in 1975, 65 million in 2000, estimated
90 million in 2015), Sudan –this increases the risk of future
starvation, malnutrition and the pressure on food and water resources
(especially in the Horn of Africa). The total population of Africa
today is estimated at 1.22 billion. This is predicted to rise to
between 2 and 2.5 billion by 2050.
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/map-africa-militant-islamic-groups-april-2017/
The
threats include
Boko
Haram in northern Nigeria, ISIS and its
affiliated group Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, Libya and northern Mali,
Ansar Dine and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM) in northern Mali and Niger) and
al
Shabaab in Somalia
and
the need to work out an effective response remains a challenge.
16) Migration
– The threat from terrorism, armed gangs, faction fighting, ethnic
or religious persecution, dictatorial regimes, or other humanitarian
crises due to natural disasters such as famine, drought,
desertification and epidemic diseases may also lead to growing
numbers of internally displaced persons and refugees. Other areas of
the country concerned and neighboring countries may be unable to
provide these people with even basic living conditions. This is also
apparent with regard to the ongoing migration from rural areas to
cities resulting from any of the factors listed above or from the
simple hope to improve one’s living conditions. As mentioned in
point 12 among the literate and qualified the attraction of better
living standards in a wealthier developing country or in the
developed world produces a gradual brain-drain, depriving Africa of,
for example, nurses, doctors and other skilled workers. This may
frustrate the work of aid agencies or government programs that
financed their training.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/15/europe-migrant-tide-tragedy-africa
17)
Africa and climate change, and climate change as a driver of
migration, 'climate refugees'
What
can the international community do?
1) There are lots
of aid programs, but there is a need to avoid duplication, waste and
also a need for long-term projects for sustainable development as
well as for greater and better cooperation and coordination between
aid organizations.
Chinese investment
has been aimed at obtaining supplies of raw materials for the present
and future (e.g. oil and metal ores) but that pattern may now be
changing. Often a Chinese company brings its own Chinese labor, so
Chinese investment is not always a big boost for jobs for the local
population, but it has provided steady demand for Africa’s products
and the Chinese company builds infrastructure like roads and this
remains after the Chinese leave and can be used for other things.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/09/03/chinas-direct-investment-in-africa-reality-versus-myth/
“China
and Africa have developed close economic ties over the past 20 years.
China’s rapid growth has boosted its demand for raw materials, many
of which come from Africa, and trade has risen more than 40-fold over
the period. More recently, the growing strength of Chinese
enterprises has also led to rapid expansion of Chinese direct
investment in Africa. At the same time, China’s competitive
manufacturing has provided consumer goods that were previously out of
reach to low-income households across the continent. But now China’s
growth is slowing and the drivers of its growth are shifting from
investment and exports to domestic consumption. This shift is
affecting the global economy (see the IMF’s October 2016 World
Economic Outlook) but is having a particularly large impact on
commodity exporters, many of which are in Africa. Overall, Africa’s
commodities exports have fallen as a result of the decline in Chinese
demand and the precipitous fall in world commodity prices, putting
pressure on the fiscal and external accounts of many African
countries. After expanding by 5–6 percent over the past two
decades, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach
barely 1.5 percent in 2016.”
from: file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/44711-afrdp.pdf
3)
Western aid is generally linked now to conditions of better
governance, more respect for human rights and free and fair
elections. Chinese investment so far has not been, except where China
has paid for raw materials with finished goods, thus avoiding money
payments to corrupt officials. On the whole, however, many
commentators (and NGOs) argue that China has been willing to do
business with repressive regimes and pay large bribes where
necessary.
4) With the
recession, despite pledges, some aid funding from developed countries
is likely to be frozen or to fall.
5) Debt
cancellation to foreign governments – this has been substantial but
does not cover all African debt e.g. debt to banks rather than to
government agencies.
6) African
countries need to expand and diversify their economies (especially as
regards manufacturing) so they are no longer dependent on aid. They
need to create a better business environment for foreign and African
businesses.
7) Import barriers
in rich countries (e.g. the EU) against African goods need to be
reduced or abolished. The last Doha round tried to make progress on
this point but success has been limited.
8) Micro-credit
could be a way to help people set up small business activities in
Africa.
Are
things changing?
However,
things may finally be changing. The mobile phone revolution, with
low-cost phones and services, has allowed the information and
communications sectors in sub-Saharan Africa to grow rapidly (in
Kenya they represent 5% of GDP). The World Bank points out that today
while some development trends are becoming more positive in various
areas of sub-Saharan Africa serious challenges remain.
Sub-Saharan
Africa’s opportunities are vast, and its challenges persistent.
Home to the world’s largest free trade area and a 1.2
billion-person market, the continent is poised to create an entirely
new development path harnessing the potential of its resources and
people.
Average
growth rates across the continent are not yet reflecting this
sentiment. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise to a
modest 2.6% in 2019 from 2.5% in 2018, which is 0.2 percentage points
lower than the April forecast. However, this masks big
differences between countries. Four of the fastest growing economies
in the world in 2019 are in Africa: Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana,
and Rwanda.
The
slower-than-expected overall growth in 2018 reflects ongoing
global uncertainty, increasingly from domestic
macroeconomic instability including poorly managed debt, inflation,
and deficits; political and regulatory uncertainty; and fragility. It
also belies stronger performance in several smaller economies that
continue to grow steadily.
At
the same time, the recovery in Nigeria, Angola, and South
Africa—the region’s three largest economies—has remained
fragile and is bringing down the regional average. In Nigeria, growth
in the non-oil sector has been sluggish, while in Angola the oil
sector remained weak. In South Africa, low investment sentiment is
weighing on economic activity.
Excluding
Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, growth in the rest of the
subcontinent is expected to remain robust, although slower in some
countries. The average growth among non-resource-intensive countries
is projected to edge down, reflecting the effects of tropical
cyclones in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, political uncertainty in Sudan,
weaker agricultural exports in Kenya, and fiscal consolidation in
Senegal.
In
Central African Economic and Monetary Community countries, which are
also resource-intensive, activity is expected to expand at a modest
pace, supported by rising oil production. Growth among metals
exporters is expected to moderate, as mining production slows and
metal prices fall.
Several
challenges remain and are holding back progress. Public debt levels
and debt risk are rising, which might jeopardize debt sustainability
in some countries; the availability of good jobs has not kept pace
with the number of entrants in the labor force; fragility is costing
the subcontinent a half of a percentage point of growth per year;
gender gaps persist and are keeping the continent from reaching its
full growth and innovation potential, and 416 million Africans still
live in extreme poverty.
As
regards the UN Millennium Development Goals according to the 2015
Africa MDG report Africa, the results achieved are mixed:
“
having
made encouraging progress on the MDGs, African countries have the
opportunity to use the newly launched Sustainable Development Goals
to tackle remaining challenges and achieve a development
breakthrough.
Much
more work lies ahead to ensure living standards improve for all
African women and men. While economic growth has been relatively
strong, it has not been rapid or inclusive enough to create jobs.
Similarly, many countries have managed to achieve access to primary
schooling however considerable issues of quality and equity need to
be addressed.
Poor implementation mechanisms and excessive
reliance on development aid undermined the economic sustainability of
several MDG interventions, the report adds. Official development
assistance to Africa is projected to remain low over the period
2015-2018, at an average of around US$47 billion
annually”
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/mdg/mdg-reports/africa-collection.html
Africa
and SDGs
While
poverty in Africa has declined (as a percentage), the absolute number
of poor has increased
Despite
some successes, serious development challenges remain in Africa,
where governance and transparency remain weak.
Although
the number of women dying during pregnancy and childbirth has fallen
dramatically worldwide in the last 15 years, Sub-Saharan Africa
accounted for two out of every three of such deaths in the world in
2015.
HIV
infections are stabilizing but Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area
worst-hit with nearly 25 million people living with HIV/AIDS.
As
regards primary school enrollment real progress has been made. More
students than ever were in school in 2015 but still not all, and one
out of three is likely to leave school before completion. Fewer girls
are enrolled than boys.
The
human and economic cost of the Ebola outbreak is discussed below.
Africa
and Economic Development
Compared
with traditional, negative views of Africa’s economic stagnation a
very different interpretation of the trends in Africa began to emerge
during the first decade of this century.
or
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
See
also:
http://www.amethisfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Africa-the-worlds-next-growth-frontier.pdf
Here is an extract in which Miguel explains his
position:
“Although
the 1990s were a disaster for sub-Saharan Africa (living standards
improved in Asia while those in Africa got worse in a context of
dictatorships, civil wars, failed states, the HIV/AIDS epidemic and
reduced life expectancy as outlined above) prospects have changed
over the last decade. In a significant number of states growth rates
are now positive (not as high as those in Asia but encouraging), a
majority of countries have held multiparty elections, and civic
and media freedom has grown. So it is a stereotype to see the whole
of Africa as underdeveloped. He argues that this is the result of 5
factors:
Expanding
democratization (since the mid-1990s with the end of the Cold-War
superpower tensions that distorted Africa’s development) has opened
up government and increased accountability and improved governance
(e.g. army officers in the Democratic Republic of Congo are now being
put on trial). The voting public has higher expectations regarding
what it wants from government in terms of the economy and
social services.
Better
economic policies have limited tax and regulatory problems that hurt
both households and investors (Tanzania boosted primary school
enrollment by abolishing school fees in 2000).
New
technologies (especially cell phones) have increased Africa’s
access to markets.
Debt
reduction has freed resources for education and health care. The
rapid expansion of schooling in the 1970s and 1980s is now producing
results. Literacy which was 32% in Kenya in 1970 is around 90% today.
Education empowers the disadvantaged, may help to promote
pro-democratic and secular ideas, but definitely means that people
read more, are generally better-informed, have higher expectations of
government and are therefore more critical of it. women also seem to
be more assertive today
Better
schooling has produced both more and improved ‘human capital’, a
better educated younger generation (young ‘cheetahs’ not old
‘hippos’ from the anti-colonial days) which is now producing
new leaders with new energy who are open to new ideas and at
ease with new technologies. Education has also improved productivity
Probably
the most important factor is democratization since it seems to have a
clear statistical link with economic growth. Authoritarian regimes
have largely been failures economically, while 13 out of the 17
countries identified as emerging economies by Miguel have become
democracies since the 1990s. In contrast democratic reform has been
slow in oil-rich economies.
In
the economic field Africa needs to boost investment in manufacturing
and basic service industries since it has low labor costs compared
with Asia where these costs are
rising.”
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
(For
another fairly positive interpretation of current trends see
‘Africa’s
Economic Boom’
by Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler in Foreign Affairs
May/June
2013)http://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/13304351/fa-mayjune2013-devarajan-fengler-africa
However,
how much justification there is for Miguel’s view of current trends
in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole remains debatable. The World Bank’s
cautious optimism in 2014 was based on the recognition that economic
growth and development in much of the area was starting from very low
GDP (PPP) per capita levels compared with the rest of the world and
is very uneven, so figures may be misleading. No doubt we should
recognize that there is a huge range of diversity, from failed or
very poor states to other states which are stable, have developed a
good business environment and now have generally positive economic
and social indicators. Yet when around 43% of the population still
live in poverty, this is still an enormous, deep-rooted problem, even
in those countries growing fastest, and the situation in many areas
remains at best precarious. Much of Africa still faces grinding and
widespread poverty, e.g. see the statistics relating to hunger and
malnutrition in Africa contained
here:http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm
There
has been no real widespread transformation yet from low-productivity
agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and service. Moreover,
per capita incomes are low, but production and, strangely, labor
costs remain high, the consequence of politically motivated market
distortions and corruption. Road transport costs are high,
infrastructure is poor or badly maintained (leaky water pipes, power
cuts). Some experts argue that public companies charge unrealistic
prices (for political reasons) and this leads to little investment in
the infrastructure and poor and worsening services. Africa needs to
improve its human capital rapidly in order to develop but this is
problematic when funds for education and health are often stolen or
misused by political elites.
See also:
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SSA
With
thanks to S
M for
the following comments on the situation in early 2016:
In
2014-15 the
region was hit by an economic slowdown due mainly to the end of the
commodity “super-cycle” – a price upswing of a wide variety of
primary commodities – which began in 2000 and now appears to have
ended. As is well-known, sub-Saharan Africa is a net exporter of oil
and a large number of other primary commodities, such as copper, iron
ore, gold, diamond, bauxite, uranium and platinum, as well as
agricultural products, such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil and cotton:
commodity exports played a key role in fuelling Africa’s post-2000
growth performance. At the beginning of 2000, rising global demand
for mineral resources pushed further exploration and investment,
resulting in an increase in oil and gas-production and, at the same
time, contributing to the continent’s economic growth. However,
Africa’s economies are characterised by low levels of economic
diversification and are thus heavily dependent on their exports of
raw materials and other commodities. As a result, they are exposed to
the effects of price fluctuations on the markets for these goods.
Consequently, the end of the commodity “super cycle”, and the
sharp decline in commodity prices (oil, gas but also iron ore, cotton
and copper for example) from around mid-2014 has had a huge and
dramatic impact on the sub-Saharan economic system. Moreover, this
negative economic trend has been coupled with (and is the result of)
the recent economic slowdown experienced by some important emerging
global economies which have strong economic ties with the African
continent, especially China, now the continent’s main commercial
partner. To give just one example, China accounts for over 40 per
cent of global demand for copper, and today, as a result of its
economic situation and the subsequent cuts in its investment
programs, commodity corporations have suspended mining operations in
many countries, such as Zambia. The commodity crisis has also
highlighted the main economic weaknesses of sub-Saharan Africa: its
dependence on commodity prices on the international market; the lack
of growth in the very limited manufacturing sector (compare this with
China), which represents a key indicator for long-term growth; and
the high levels of debt faced by many African countries. Thus
economic diversification appears to be the only way both to respond
to the current African slowdown and to achieve more sustainable
growth in the long term.
As
regards political and security issues, sub-Saharan Africa is facing
major threats which are closely related to the growing phenomenon of
“failed states” and the consequent rise in jihadist groups able
to take advantage of extremely porous international borders. The
limits of the state-building process in many areas are increasingly
visible: many sub-Saharan countries have failed to develop
functioning state institutions capable of enforcing the rule of law
within their borders and implementing effective social public
policies for their people. In the early 2000s, many African states
made progress in terms of stabilising conflict zones and holding
rulers more accountable. However, this path has been reversed by the
recent spread of violence across the region. The most visible example
of a weak state concerns a country situated in the Horn of Africa,
South Sudan, the continent’s youngest state which gained
independence from Sudan in July 2011 following a referendum that
passed with almost 99% of the votes. The country has the highest
score on the 2015 Fragile States Index, followed immediately by
Somalia, Central African Republic and Sudan. The alarming situation
in South Sudan has been continuously highlighted by both the UN and
international humanitarian organizations, such as the International
Red Cross, which continue to warn of an imminent humanitarian
catastrophe as the country’s civil war enters its third year, and
of the urgent need for international management in order to stop the
shocking and extremely cruel human rights violations.
A
new generation of violent conflicts is now under way, and in these
wars religion seems to be playing a key role, or at least much more
important one than before. As is well known, Central African Republic
has been in a state of unrest since March 2013, when sectarian
violence based on religious divisions hit a country that had a
centuries-old tradition of peaceful coexistence between Christians
and Muslims. This crisis marked a turning point in the radicalization
of religion differences. Yet, despite all the difficulties, there is
still some hope that the country may recover and re-establish order.
In that context, Pope Francis' recent trip to CAR in Nov 2015, his
visit to a mosque under siege from armed Christian militias, coupled
with his decision to start the Jubilee of Mercy by opening the Holy
Door of the Banguí cathedral,
had an important symbolic meaning. Some kind of constitutional order
has been restored. First-round presidential elections, held on 27
December 2015, gave voters the opportunity to choose from a list of
30 candidates, and, despite security concerns, the elections went off
without major incident. However, fighting has continued.
In other part of the
sub-Saharan Africa and particularly in the Sahel, the rise in
instability and unrest is mainly due to the spread of jihadist
movements, which find an ideal terrain in the region, where the
weakness of the state makes it easier to challenge the central
government. This is especially true in countries like Somalia where
presidential elections have been postponed to 2017 and will represent
an important opportunity for this country to restore some kind of
stability within its borders, and to respond to the continuous
violence and human rights abuses perpetrated by Islamist Al-Shabaab
fighters. As far as the fight against terrorism is concerned, it is
worth mentioning the major efforts being made by the new Nigerian
President, Muhammed Buhari, to hunt down and defeat Boko Haram
fighters. According to many experts, the former general from northern
Nigeria was elected by the majority of Nigerians because of his
determination to crush the home-grown jihadist group, which has been
responsible more than 15,000 deaths as well as large numbers of
refugees and internally displaced persons (est. 2,000,000).
There
has also been a dangerous new wave of authoritarianism among some of
those in office in Africa, who appear determined to renew their term
in office by eluding, or by arbitrarily changing national
constitutions. the case of Burundi is particularly telling. The
country was, until 2015, a success story of reconciliation. Now,
however, it is ravaged by unrest and repression. Observers and human
rights activists have documented dozens of arbitrary arrests,
disappearances and deaths, and have begun to warn of the risk of a
new genocide, similar to the one which occurred in Rwanda in 1994.
This new political crisis has its roots in the decision made by the
president, Pierre Nkurunziza, to run for a third term, although his
constitutionally-mandated two terms in office expired in 2016. By
ignoring civil demonstrations and by cracking down on any opposition
group, president Nkurunziza seems to have inspired other rulers in
neighbouring countries, who show the same determination not to allow
a new generation of leaders to emerge. This is what is happening in
Rwanda, where a recent referendum, strongly criticized by both the US
and the EU, allows president Paul Kagame to run for a seven-year term
in 2017, followed by two further five-year terms (that
will effectively allow Kagame to stay in power until 2034).
Kagame
has been president since 2000, but he has effectively been in control
since his forces marched into the Rwandan capital, Kigali, to end the
1994 genocide. In
the Republic of Congo’s president, Nguesso, held a referendum in
order to eliminate term limits from his country’s constitution, and
the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president, Joseph Kabila, is now
planning to delay new elections indefinitely in order to extend his
constitutional rule.
Sub-Saharan
Africa’s unstable economic and political situation is thus likely
to aggravate other problems, such as that of migration. Migration is
the most visible consequence of this new era of civil wars and unrest
in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015-16, displacement reached a record
high. For instance, the civil conflict which began in South Sudan led
more than 800,000 people to flee to neighbouring countries and, at
the same time, it has left almost 2 million people internally
displaced. In the Central African Republic, the number of people
fleeing the country has almost doubled since the end of the sectarian
violence in 2013. Consequently, this situation is likely to aggravate
illegal migration to other African countries (and towards Europe),
which is closely connected with a widespread problem across the
continent, the smuggling of migrants and human trafficking.
The
instability experienced by sub-Saharan Africa is also likely to have
a dangerous impact on what can be considered the continent’s
“historical” problems, i.e. extreme poverty, the absence of
viable and functioning social systems (education, health), epidemic
diseases, the lack of food security, the environmental problems, as
well as overpopulation. As we have seen, according to GDP per capita
statistics from the World Bank for 2015, sub-Saharan Africa continues
to be by far the poorest region of the world. As regards the
phenomenon of population growth , according to UN estimates, Africa’s
population is forecast to double to 2.5 billion by 2050 according to
http://www.prb.org/Publications/DataSheets/2016/2016-world-population-data-sheet.aspx
and about 400
million of these people may live in Nigeria alone. Such a demographic
increase would bring with it enormous dangers, i.e. growing pressure
on social services (access to drinking water, electricity, schools,
health etc.) and overcrowded cities unable to meet the population’s
needs.
In
conclusion, the range of risks and problems affecting sub-Saharan
Africa are likely to make 2017 another tumultuous and difficult year
for the region, requiring strong and decisive efforts both at the
national and international level to cope with these growing threats.
The US continues to view the region as a “high priority”,
continuing its aid programs, as well as implementing a series of
trade and military cooperation policies. The EU is also strongly
committed to supporting African countries in dealing with the many
challenges. Among other EU initiatives it is worth mentioning the EU
“Emergency Trust Fund for Africa”, a fund with almost 2
billion euros from the EU budget, whose main aim is to foster
stability in the region, while contributing to better migration
management.
What is more,
despite this generally pessimistic scenario, there have still been
some important success stories and signs of progress. Among them,
there was what seems to be the end of the spread of Ebola in Guinea
and in neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone which would mark an
important milestone in the fight to contain the epidemic (which broke
out in West Africa in December 2013) and give the area new hope for a
better future.
Africa
and Migration
You
should also be up to date on the work of the Africa-EU Partnership:
and
the evolving situation in Somalia (the fight against terrorism and
efforts to rebuild the state):
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/somalia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/04/20/making-africa-great-again-reducing-aid-dependency/
Priorities
for Africa
https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/foresight-africa/
Africa
and Agricultural Development
http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/publications/2017/
Economic
situation and Report on Africa and country case studies
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/10/06/figures-of-the-week-africa-education-world-development-report-2018/
see
also World Bank Africa Pulse Report on:
and
https://www.uneca.org/publications/economic-report-africa-2017
Water
Child
labour and trafficking in children
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/26/emmanuel-macron-visits-africa-human-trafficking-slavery
South
Africa
Ongoing
Civil Conflicts in Africa
Violence
http://www.aon.com/2017-political-risk-terrorism-and-political-violence-maps/pdfs/2017-Aon-Risk-Maps-Report.pdf
Health
http://www.who.int/bulletin/africanhealth/en/
Terrorism
Possible
essay structure
Definition
of Africa / contrast with development in some parts of Asia /
Identifying poverty as the main challenge / causes of poverty /
consequences of poverty / what's changing / what the international
community is doing / what needs to be done.
