2026 – is NATO in danger of breaking up or becoming unreliable?

Is there a European alternative to NATO?

https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed

https://united24media.com/latest-news/europe-weighs-new-security-framework-without-nato-amid-trumps-greenland-threats-15139

2025 – should the EU have a nuclear deterrent?

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2025/09/11/should-europe-develop-its-own-nuclear-deterrent/

https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/04/can-europe-build-its-own-nuclear-umbrella?lang=en&fbclid=PAZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAaaewGQd_NnqW_ztqCmUMGXzl4hAP1tEe3eR0boNq9O85t9Oe9giCwrw5fE_aem_aD2j502ay1yxxYny7YRh4g

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/

https://www.ifri.org/en/media-external-article/europe-thinks-unthinkable-nuclear-bomb

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tw1GPjHvF8

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/03/12/the-fact-that-the-debate-on-a-european-nuclear-deterrent-is-open-shows-the-extent-of-the-current-upheaval_6739066_23.html

https://spectator.clingendael.org/en/publication/eu-must-step-nuclear-non-proliferation

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/france-should-join-natos-nuclear-sharing-arrangements-strengthen-european-deterrence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-nuclear-warhead-stockpiles-1945-2024/

https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2025/04/taking-the-pulse-can-europeans-build-their-independent-extended-nuclear-deterrent?lang=en

How many Italian military personnel are there in missions abroad and where are they?

L’Italia vanta infatti all’attivo più di 40 missioni nel 2024, posizionandosi come primo contributore per le operazioni dell’Ue, secondo contributore della Nato dopo gli Usa – quindi primo tra gli europei – e primo tra i contributori occidentali alle missioni delle Nazioni Unite.

Military personnel: NATO (5.170), ONU (2.764) e UE (742).

From: https://www.affarinternazionali.it/le-missioni-internazionali-2024-quanti-e-dove-sono-i-militari-italiani/

NATO's New Strategic Concept 2022

https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/

https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/natos-new-strategic-concept-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters/#:~:text=At%20the%20summit%2C%20NATO%20leaders,alliance's%20new%20and%20enduring%20objectives.

https://www.osorin.it/uploads/model_4/.files/117_item_2.pdf?v=1664283035

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49635.htm

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/what-next-eu-security-and-defence-0_en

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/110084/%E2%80%9Ceurope-danger-what-next-eu-security-and-defence%E2%80%9D-speech-high-representativevice-president_en the EU’s view

https://www.nato.int/ or https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/index.htm

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm NATO-Russia

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50090.htm#:~:text=For%20more%20than%20two%20decades,channels%20of%20communication%20remain%20open.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191254.htm?selectedLocale=en NATO warning before the Russian invasion

and earlier https://www.nato.int/nato2030/ NATO 2030

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52060.htm operations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations operations

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-the-us-failure-in-afghanistan-wont-break-nato/ withdrawal from Afghanistan

https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/speciale-afghanistan-nato-ritirata-31386

https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/02/01/nato-an-unexpected-driver-of-climate-action/index.html climate action

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm funding

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-44717074 defence spending

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/12/nato-countries-defense-spending-gdp-trump/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-44717074 the US and its partners

NATO and the European Defence Agency

https://eda.europa.eu/what-we-do/eda-in-short

https://eda.europa.eu/webzine/issue26

https://eda.europa.eu/webzine/issue17/nato-view/enhancing-cooperation-improving-effectiveness-ensuring-coherence

watch?v=3McmcY-3d9I EU-NATO Cooperation Mogherini 9 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtrW6ivIuJA EU-NATO Cooperation Borrell 5 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dfpqdygGV8 Greenland Kallas

However, ‘the European Union (EU) does not have a permanent military command structure along the lines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) Allied Command Operations (ACO).’

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Command_and_control_structure_of_the_European_Union#:~:text=The%20European%20Union%20(EU)%20does,of%20the%20EU's%20CSDP%20missions.

But https://www.eppgroup.eu/newsroom/europe-must-take-command

https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/01/16/can-europes-military-spending-revive-economic-growth#:~:text=Europe%20is%20ramping%20up%20defence,limit%20the%20economic%20pay%2Doff.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20190612STO54310/defence-how-the-eu-is-boosting-its-security

https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/802-the-four-challenges-facing-european-defence

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1480

This is perhaps the real point – https://www.visionofhumanity.org/europes-military-awakening-and-the-real-challenge-of-defence-integration/

https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/06/11/satellites-space-defense-the-eu-steps-up-efforts-for-a-common-space-strategy-amid-ambitions-and-obstacles/

https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-space/eu-space-strategy-security-and-defence_en

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/lost-space-europes-role-spatial-defense

https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2025/01/22/commissioner-kubilius-calls-for-'big-bang'-in-eu-defence

world military spending by country

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/military-spending-by-country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures

https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/14/nato-military-spending-emissions

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/urgently-needed-europeanized-nato-212357 EU military spending compared with Russia

https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2025/06/25/the-hague-summit-declaration last NATO summit

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/strengthening-natos-eastern-flank NATO’s eastern flank

Enhanced Forward Presence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Enhanced_Forward_Presence

https://lc.nato.int/operations/enhanced-forward-presence-efp with map

https://www.max-security.com/resources/global-forecast/nato-future-strategy-2025/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX4a6d3qNbU Mattarella visiting the troops

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnDNOMbu0bg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACNW-PMYuMY Meloni

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/nato-operations-and-missions NATO Missions

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/missions-and-operations_en#11929 EU Missions

US bases and NATO installations in Italy

https://militarybases.com/overseas/italy/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/03/us-military-base-expansion-italy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:NATO_installations_in_Italy

https://rappnato.esteri.it/en/litalia-e-la-nato/ the US and Italy

NATO Funding – How it works. Read all sections

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/funding-nato

Cybersecurity cooperation

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/cyber-defence

https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2024/07/10/allies-agree-new-nato-integrated-cyber-defence-centre

https://nextgendefense.com/nato-cyber-defense-center/

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_78170.htm

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/european-union-and-nato-hold-first-structured-dialogue-cyber-0_en

Lessons from Afghanistan?

https://www.nato.int/content/dam/nato/legacy-wcm/media_pdf/2021/12/pdf/2112-factsheet-afgh-lessons-en.pdf

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/i-wrote-natos-lessons-from-afghanistan-now-i-wonder-what-have-we-learned/

https://www.geopolitica.info/la-guerra-in-afghanistan-perche-siamo-andati-e-cosa-abbiamo-imparato-parla-il-gen-cuzzelli/

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/lessons-wests-long-war-afghanistan-35961

and Libya? https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/lessons-libya-how-not-intervene

NATO has developed a ballistic missile defense system in Europe for the protection of NATO forces and the populations of NATO member states.

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/ballistic-missile-defence

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/nato-integrated-air-and-missile-defence

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm#:~:text=NATO%20Ballistic%20Missile%20Defence%20(NATO,task%20of%20deterrence%20and%20defence%20.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-nato-officials-inaugurate-missile-defense-shield-in-romania-1463056944

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm

EUBAM Libya supports the Libyan authorities in developing border management and security at the country’s land, sea and air borders. As a civilian crisis management mission with a capacity-building mandate, EUBAM assists Libyan authorities at the strategic and operational levels. The work is carried out through advising, training and mentoring Libyan counterparts in strengthening the border services in accordance with international standards and best practices, and by advising the Libyan authorities on the development of a national Integrated Border Management (IBM) strategy.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eubam-libya_en?s=327

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eubam-libya/empowering-libyan-coast-guard-and-advancing-libyas-maritime-security_en

The European Union Naval Force Mediterranean Operation Irini (EUNAVFOR MED IRINI) was launched on 31 March 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Irini

Operation Sea Guardian is NATO’s maritime security operation in the Mediterranean

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136233.htm

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES is an EU military operation contributing to the protection of freedom of navigation, to safeguarding maritime security, especially for merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Gulf under the EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP).

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eunavfor-aspides_en?s=410381

Operation Atalanta, formally European Union Naval Force (EU NAVFOR) Somalia, is an ongoing counter-piracy military operation at sea off the Horn of Africa and in the Western Indian Ocean.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Atalanta#:~:text=Operation%20Atalanta%2C%20formally%20European%20Union,in%20the%20Western%20Indian%20Ocean.

All of this should make us think carefully about what kind of operations NATO and the EU are able or not able to carry out / are willing or unwilling to carry out / should or should not carry out, and in what circumstances and under what conditions they are likely to be successful.

See the Dropbox for the full text.

English for Diplomacy

giovedì 22 gennaio 2026

How is the role of NATO evolving? What are the main challenges facing the organization? Developments at the European Defence Agency and cooperation with NATO.