martedì 5 dicembre 2023

https://humansecuritycourse.info/module-1-the-concept-of-human-security/eu-approach/#:~:text=The%20HS%20doctrine%20for%20Europe%20includes%20three%20elements%3A,clear%20and%20transparent%20strategic%20direction.

https://www.cimic-coe.org/news/Human-Security-Conference-Vicenza-2023/

https://unipd-centrodirittiumani.it/it/schede/Articolo-22-Sicurezza-Umana/26

https://www.esteri.it/it/politica-estera-e-cooperazione-allo-sviluppo/temi_globali/diritti_umani/litalia_e_i_diritti_umani/

https://www.archiviodisarmo.it/view/et2SJlQDuhxYJNiaErp__CSieJUtiegrzuaRiK6seDQ/poudin-il-concetto-di-sicurezza-umana-giugno-2015.pdf page 9

https://unipd-centrodirittiumani.it/it/pubblicazioni/Obiettivo-sicurezza-umana-per-la-politica-estera-dellUnione-Europea/951

venerdì 1 dicembre 2023

Is ‘security’ now the key word in international relations?

The word ‘security’ in international relations used to have only one meaning - national and military security - the safety of a state from attack or political interference by another state. So a state needed military forces, a police force, a security (secret) service and perhaps membership of an alliance to guarantee its independence and freedom from potential threats from other states. It is in this sense that the Italian Armed Forces, police forces and security services, in cooperation with NATO forces and, in particular, US conventional and nuclear forces (the nuclear umbrella) provided Italy with ‘security’ during the Cold War period, and continue to provide it with all the advantages of an alliance based on collective security and shared values. Developments at the European Defence Agency now offer Italy another parallel line of defence.

National security includes threats in non-military fields, the security of economic infrastructure, such as ports, ships, railways, airports and planes (think of the military targets in World War II) and nowadays, the protection from physical or virtual attacks of systems, such as government and commercial IT and satellite networks. Recently, as well as greater concern about cyber-security and the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the protection of state institutions and private companies and individuals from cyber attacks, we have seen a growing focus on energy, trade, resource and supply chain security.

Look at these other posts on the blog for:

Cybersecurity - https://youngdip.blogspot.com/2023/11/cybersecurity-and-digital-diplomacy.html

Artificial Intelligence - https://youngdip.blogspot.com/2023/10/artificial-intelligence-and.html

https://youngdip.blogspot.com/2023/11/ai-update.html

5G networks, Europe and security - https://youngdip.blogspot.com/2023/11/5g.html

Moreover, states have usually seen themselves as responsible (where possible and normally through diplomacy) for their citizens’ safety abroad and, to some extent, for the well-being of expatriate emigrant communities in other countries, and these are roles that have grown over time.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/common-security-and-defence-policy_en

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/shaping-common-security-and-defence-policy_en

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/europe/gsvp-start/209178#:~:text=The%20CSDP%20enables%20the%20EU,management%20and%20post%2Dcrisis%20rehabilitation.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/106337/towards-strategic-compass_en

https://eda.europa.eu/

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forze_armate_italiane

https://www.nato.int/

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/30823/qc7809568enc.pdf

https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/actions-topic/foreign-and-security-policy_en

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2391

Another significant factor is that for many states the traditional concept of security has grown to include asymmetric threats, not necessarily coming from another state but from non-state actors. So in the traditional sphere of security, a distinction should be made between threats to security that could be posed by states (e.g. Iran’s nuclear development programs and suspected nuclear arms ambitions, North Korea's nuclear arms and rocket tests) which can be addressed through the UN and traditional diplomacy, and the asymmetric threats posed by non-state, transnational actors where the threat is not so easily tied to a specific state or location (e.g. a transnational terrorist group like Islamic State). The latter require widespread, intense and continuous cooperation and monitoring by the international community at the level of governments, police forces and security services. There is also an obvious conflict here between a state’s duty to ensure the security of its citizens and its legal and moral obligation to respect international laws and norms regarding privacy and the human rights of its own citizens, of those of other states and of those who are not officially recognized as citizens of any state. Cyber security threats may come from other states, or from non-state groups or individuals. Threats to energy security and economic and trade security may come from other states, non-state actors (e.g. pirates), unsustainable competition for limited resources, natural disasters or unforeseen emergencies (e.g. the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine and the interruption or disruption of supply chains) or simply a mismanaged global economy (e.g. the 2008 global economic crisis).

https://www.difesa.it/EN/Operations/InternationalOperations/SomWatAtaOceShield/Pagine/default.aspx

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/italy-national-security-and-5g-27494

https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/terrorism-what-italian-intelligence-report-says-29522

https://searcherp.techtarget.com/definition/supply-chain-security#:~:text=Supply%20chain%20security%20is%20the,part%20of%20a%20supply%20chain.

However, today the term ‘security’ can be interpreted in many ways and is being applied more and more widely, mainly because we now think of security as also relating to people rather than simply or only to the state (compare the following ideas, national security, international security and human security). Of course, as mentioned above, states generally did accept that they were responsible for trying to ensure the security of their citizens abroad. An attack on the citizens of a state could have serious consequences for the perpetrator in terms of diplomatic and popular reaction, and in terms or possible material retaliation, sanctions, or even war (think of the First World War, the sinking of the Lusitania and the death of American citizens, the later adoption by Germany of unrestricted submarine warfare and the US entry into the war).

In terms of the wider use of the word ‘security’ today, one way of linking the various current ‘security’ concepts is simply to think of the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the rights it sets out as belonging to all human beings. If human beings possess such rights, then it is the taskfirst of the state concerned and then of the international community, the members of the UN, to try to guarantee, ‘to secure’, these rights. Thus, the concept of security now includes institutions, systems and operations to safeguard these rights.

First, there is the most basic human right, the right to life. Thus, the vast majority of UN emergency operations, health projects and development programs around the world are concerned with ‘security’ in terms of saving lives and providing sustainable living conditions. An attempt by the UN to mediate in order to prevent a conflict or to end a conflict between two countries or between two groups within a country, peace-keeping, peace-building and peace enforcement operations are all ways in which the UN, and thus the international community, seeks to protect people from war and violence and save lives, and promote their physical security. The same is true for UN attempts to promote and support governance-building in a failed or failing state, for all UN, NGO or bilateral emergency and humanitarian aid programs aimed at providing food, water, shelter, basic necessities and health care, and for longer term development programs to promote sustainable agricultural and industrial development, education and foster more effective resource management. Viewed in this way ‘sustainability’ simply means trying to guarantee security not only for people today but for future generations.

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights

The UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights goes on to list other rights, civil rights – freedom from slavery, freedom from arbitrary arrest, the right to a speedy and fair trial, freedom of speech, freedom of association and the freedom of the press, and the rights associated with active participation in politics. This suggests that ‘security’ for the citizens of a country means that individuals live in a functioning democracy, under the rule of law as enforced by a democratically controlled police force and judicial system. NATO, for example, exists as an alliance of countries of this kind, committed to guaranteeing to its members the ‘security’ of these kinds of values and not simply security from invasion. Moreover, issues such as human rights in China and, in particular, the civil, political, cultural and religious liberties of ethnic minorities such as Tibetans (Buddhists) and Uighurs (Moslems) and Chinese citizens in general (Hong Kong), obviously do affect relations between China and the West. One can see this in Western concern to promote the security of basic rights in China, and to prevent the Chinese political model (the one-party authoritarian state) from spreading to other states as its economic influence grows along with its support for non-democratic and sometimes repressive regimes in Africa and Asia. Among these civil rights is freedom from ‘arbitrary interference with one’s privacy, family, home or correspondence’. As already noted, with the introduction of stronger anti-terrorist legislation such as the Patriot Act and the Homeland Security Act in the US many civil rights groups are concerned that the need for the state to provide its citizens with security against terrorist attacks has led to the infringement of privacy rights through the monitoring of phones and internet activity without ‘just cause’ (prior permission granted by a judge in specific circumstances).

Questions relating to the prosecution of the individuals responsible for humanitarian crimes, atrocities, ethnic cleansing and genocide committed by groups or states are all concerned with providing justice (reasserting and ‘securing’ this idea through exemplary trials and sentences) after the framework of basic human rights has broken down or been deliberately ignored. Obviously, because of its fundamental recognition of each member state’s sovereignty as regards its domestic affairs, the UN and its affiliated agencies are often unable to intervene effectively in such cases. As a result, these questions may become the subject of disputes in international relations and ultimately the work of the International Criminal Court in prosecuting individuals, or may never be adequately addressed in an international context because a state is too powerful and can block any legal action, or because a state does not belong to the ICC, or refuses to cooperate with it. Nevertheless, the ICC exists in order to promote respect for human rights as a legal norm towards which all states must work.

The UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights also says everyone has a series of economic and social rights, such as the right to health care, education, the right to a job, to earn money and to an adequate standard of living (although it is not clear how the international community can guarantee work!) and freedom from unsustainable low-wage economic exploitation. Thus, there are UN welfare programs aimed at providing health and education ‘security’ and economic security in terms of sustainable development. As we have seen, such programs, together with programs for environmental protection, are aimed at promoting future human security in social and economic terms. Another concept here is the right to own property and the security of that ownership, a basic question in relation to civilians in failed states, faced with armed bands, or where there is an absence of the rule of law and the presence of criminal organizations or, more recently, threats from piracy, or exploitative élites (where would-be businessmen and professionals cannot be sure of keeping a reasonable amount of the money they make or the ownership of the business they set up).

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2021/01/the-politics-of-economic-insecurity-in-the-covid-19-era/

‘Security’ can be similarly interpreted in terms of the need to guarantee the right to freedom of movement, whether as a necessity (for refugees) or as an opportunity (for migrants).

Questions relating to women’s rights and the rights of children may be in terms of basic human rights (protection from violence and slavery), civil rights (the same civil rights as men) or social and economic rights (education, freedom from exploitation in terms of labor and for women, freedom from forced marriage and forced child-bearing – the right to choose).

All of this is to say that although the international community today seems to see ‘security’ in terms the state (e.g. the question of Ukraine’s sovereignty), or the fight against terrorism, the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological arms, illegal trafficking in conventional arms, drugs, people and organs, and the protection of information systems against cyber-attacks, the term ‘security’ needs a much wider interpretation to be fully understood in today’s world.

Exercise – Consider the following issues: women’s rights in Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Muslim world, freedom of the press and the Kurdish question in Turkey, minority rights in Russia, discrimination and the right to privacy of Muslims and the Roma people in Europe. These are all issues that cannot be ignored at the international level and that may therefore affect diplomatic relations and security issues in the broadest sense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-terrorism_legislation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_law

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_governance

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeland_security

Some Observations

Foreign policy and domestic politics are no longer completely separate. This is very clear in the EU but is also of growing importance within the international community as a whole, within the UN and other international bodies or in bilateral relations.

120 years ago, the sovereignty of the state was an absolute value. Enhancing the power of the state and guaranteeing the state’s security were legitimate and often primary goals of the state. Compare that with today. The IR environment has changed, partly as a result of the much greater degree of globalized trade and technical development, but also because of the education and information revolutions. Ordinary people can monitor and participate in domestic and international relations much more, and much more easily. As we have seen, they are themselves also the subject of security questions, all those concerning the human individual and many of these are best addressed or can only be addressed now through cooperation at the international level. Global recessions, the Covid-19 pandemic, the danger of the escalation of the war in Ukraine or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, nuclear proliferation and the looming environmental challenges of climate change are all good examples of such threats.

Moreover, where development has failed to take place in one state (and where the rule of law collapses and there is widespread human suffering) this situation may endanger first local and regional security and eventually international security. So military interventions are not purely for tangible national interests but also for the promotion or maintenance of shared values also with regard to perceived future threats (NATO’s recent though largely unsuccessful ‘out-of-area’ operations). Security was previously thought of in terms of military and economic strength, and borders were real and protected. Today security is fundamentally dealt with through coordinated action on the basis of shared values and concerns (e.g. Japanese foreign policy today compared with the 1930s and WWII) across borders and at many levels through many organizations (e.g. the ILO, UNESCO, UNICEF, the World Bank, the IMF). Is it even possible today to think of fighting and ‘winning’ a conventional war in the traditional sense? (Russia in Ukraine?) Traditionally, this meant defeating another state and imposing an advantageous settlement. Perhaps war, at least for the West, is now usually a question of military operations undertaken because of a perceived security threat, in the context of a campaign to maintain public support at home and ‘win hearts and minds’ in the country where the war is fought (e.g. Iraq and Afghanistan). If so, perhaps the UN, as currently constituted on the basis of sovereign states, is out of date and even unreformable, since the subject of IR and broad security questions is now often people rather than states.

One of the main problem for the EU remains that of its future identity. Is it going to stay a group of sovereign states or will it evolve into some kind of federal union? Shared foreign policy, its latest objective, ultimately requires shared sovereignty. The Greek financial crisis illustrated the problems for the EU at the internal level, while on international questions the EU’s more powerful members and its outliers (e.g. Hungary)often speak for themselves and with conflicting voices. The EU’s effectiveness both in guaranteeing economic security for its citizens and in helping to promote human security abroad will ultimately depend on how much political unity it manages to achieve.

Of course, not all states are ready and willing to embrace these new values and this new version of IR. Some still pursue Realpolitik to at least a significant degree, and among these are both some of the world’s most powerful states (Russia, China, and sometimes the US) and some of the world’s least democratic and least open states (North Korea and Iran). Thus, some states which are members of the UN and have signed the UN Charter do not actually share its values and may see it as a Western organization trying to impose Western values. So currently IR is a mix of the traditional goals and methods of foreign policy and diplomacy and the new objectives and methods which are still evolving, but perhaps evolving too slowly to keep pace with a changing world. International relations often run the risk of being an uneasy compromise between genuine idealism, wishful thinking and harsh power politics, based sometimes on interventions, which may no longer be determined simply by the material interests of nation states but by a mix of conflicting values, and sometimes on a failure to intervene (Rwanda, Syria?). The nation state alone is no longer able to resolve global problems through traditional negotiations and Realpolitik, but a world government based on truly shared values and with effective powers does not exist yet. So collective security and human security remain difficult concepts, works in progress rather than a given legally-enforceable framework for international relations.

http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_security

https://www.unicef.org/child-rights-convention/children-human-rights-explained

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_of_person#:~:text=Security%20of%20the%20person%20is,the%20United%20Nations%20in%201948.&text=In%20general%2C%20the%20right%20to,remedy%20such%20as%20habeas%20corpus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goals

https://www.unicef.org/child-rights-convention/children-human-rights-explained

https://www.sos-childrensvillages.org/getmedia/313a610a-e688-4347-8921-427ffe0ee4e0/SecuringChildrensRights_GBR.pdf

https://www.ohchr.org/en/issues/minorities/pages/minoritiesindex.aspx

https://www.who.int/health-topics/health-security/#tab=tab_1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_security

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_security

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_security

https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/RightSocialSecurity/Pages/SocialSecurity.aspx

https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/employment-security/lang--en/index.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_security

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

Cybersecurity

https://www.esteri.it/it/politica-estera-e-cooperazione-allo-sviluppo/temi_globali/cybersicurezza/

https://www.esteri.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Italian-Position-Paper-on-International-Law-and-Cyberspace.pdf

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/IT/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020JC0018&from=EN

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020JC0018&from=EN

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133177.htm

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/2/9/228511.pdf

https://www.esteri.it/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2022/11/nato-cyber-defense-pledge-conference-2022-roma-9-10-novembre-2022/

https://www.acn.gov.it/agenzia/attivita-internazionali

Demographic trends and international relations – including how these relate to the SDGs and the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

Europe

https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/#:~:text=PIP%3A%20Replacement%20level%20fertility%20is,of%202.1%20children%20per%20woman.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/686020/population-of-europe-by-country-and-gender/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253383/total-population-of-the-eu-member-states-by-country/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate

Demographic growth and climate change

https://populationconnection.org/resources/population-and-climate/#:~:text=Population%20growth%2C%20along%20with%20increasing,risks%20%5B4%2D8%5D.

https://www.un.org/en/desa/population-growth-environmental-degradation-and-climate-change

https://www.populationmedia.org/the-latest/population-growth-and-climate-change#:~:text=Overpopulation%20is%20directly%20contributing%20to,key%20to%20solving%20both%20issues.

Demographic data

https://www.statista.com/chart/28744/world-population-growth-timeline-and-forecast/?utm_source=Statista+Newsletters&utm_campaign=4f471455f9-All_InfographTicker_daily_COM_AM_KW46_2022_Mo_COPY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662f7ed75e-4f471455f9-338756430

http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/356770/icode/ enough to make one despair!

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

http://www.fao.org/3/cb1907en/CB1907EN.pdf

A great presentation, though perhaps over-optimistic, by Prof. Hans Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E

an opposing view:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-sdg-dampen-population-growth-by-frank-gotmark-and-robin-maynard-2019-09

So is the world overpopulated?

– current world population on 9 November 2023 is estimated to be between 8.07 and 8.09 billion and continues to rise. http://www.census.gov/popclock/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#:~:text=World%20Population%20Clock%3A%208%20Billion,(LIVE%2C%202023)%20%2D%20Worldometer

It reached 6 billion 23 years ago in October 1999 and 7 billion in October 2011 according to the United Nations Population Fund. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

Today's world population is more than double the population in1973 (3.9 billion). http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/

World population is estimated to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 - 10.8 billion by 2100 when it should peak and level off. See the video with Hans Rosling above.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#:~:text=The%20UN%20Population%20Division%20report,on%20assumptions%20about%20vital%20rates.

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

In 1900 the world’s population was only 1.6 billion, about a fifth of today’s total. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/worldpopulation.htm

TOP 15 MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES (January, 2023)

	Country	Population (2023)
1	India	1,428,627,663
2	China	1,425,671,352
3	United States	339,996,563
4	Indonesia	277,534,122
5	Pakistan	240,485,658
6	Nigeria	223,804,632
7	Brazil	216,422,446
8	Bangladesh	172,954,319
9	Russia	144,444,359
10	Mexico	128,455,567
11	Ethiopia	126,527,060
12	Japan	123,294,513
13	Philippines	117,337,368
14	Egypt	112,716,598
15	DR Congo	102,262,808

For the latest update with further data:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

For a list of the countries with the fastest population growth rates see:

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=24

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/

Are there now too many human beings?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation

There is the concept of ‘global population overshoot’ which means that the growth in human population is going beyond the planet’s ability to replenish itself in terms of resources and a sustainable environment. Some environmental experts have argued for an upper limit to sustainable human population, with a range of figures, from 2-3 billion to 7-8 billion. Others argue that it is a problem of the distribution of resources and the management of the levels and types of consumption.

https://unric.org/en/environment-2-august-overshoot-day-for-earths-resources/

https://populationmatters.org/news/2023/05/sustainable-population-the-earth4all-approach/#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20%E2%80%9Cideal%E2%80%9D%20population,figure%20is%202%2D3%20billion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshoot_(population)#:~:text=In%20environmental%20science%2C%20a%20population,up%20a%20potentially%20catastrophic%20crash

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_population

https://www.un.org/en/un-chronicle/world-population-surpasses-8-billion-what-are-implications-planetary-health-and

The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in our use of the world’s resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and optimistic scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a figure that current estimates show has already been reached. The rapid growth in global population thus has dramatic direct consequences for the number of people in the developing world (particularly in poor countries in Asia and Africa) who already face or may soon face starvation, hunger or malnutrition as well as serious consequences for sustainable global development (given the ultimately finite nature of fossil fuel reserves and raw materials such as minerals, chemicals and rare metals) and a range of environmental issues. Though the percentage of people living in extreme poverty fell up to 2019, the percentage living in relative poverty remained high. Moreover, a large number of people were living just above the poverty threshold and were therefore at risk in the event of environmental or natural disasters and price variations. And with Covid-19 this is exactly what has happened.

Situation in 2020: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/goal-01/#:~:text=Estimates%20suggest%20that%202020%20saw,the%20progress%20made%20since%202016. Then click on goal 2, 3 and 4

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/

Situation in 2023: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2023/Goal-01/ Then click on goal 2, 3 and 4

So the number of people facing extreme poverty, starvation, hunger or malnutrition actually rose in many low-income countries in 2020. At current estimates progress towards SDGs 1, 2, 3 and 4 will not be sufficient to meet the goals by 2030.

The current overview according to the World Bank (November 2022)

‘The World Bank Group’s goals are to end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity. This mission underpins our analytical, operational, and convening work in about 140 client countries.

For three decades, the number of people living in extreme poverty— defined as those who live on less than $2.15 per person per day at 2017 purchasing power parity—was declining. But the trend was interrupted in 2020, when poverty rose due to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The number of people in extreme poverty rose by 70 million to more than 700 million people. The global extreme poverty rate reached 9.3 percent, up from 8.4 percent in 2019.

The world’s poorest people bore the steepest costs of the pandemic. Their income losses were twice as high as the world’s richest, and global inequality rose for the first time in decades. The poorest also faced large setbacks in health and education which, if left unaddressed by policy action, will have lasting consequences for their lifetime income prospects.

The recovery since then has been uneven. Rising food and energy prices—fueled in part by the war in Ukraine and by climate shocks and conflict—have hindered a swift recovery. By the end of 2022, as many as 685 million people could still be living in extreme poverty.

The recent setbacks took place when the speed of progress toward poverty reduction was already slowing, in tandem with subdued global economic growth.

The recent crises have pushed the world further off track from the global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Given current trends, 574 million people—nearly 7 percent of the world’s population—will still be living on less than $2.15 a day in 2030. And the challenge is made harder by the fact that extreme poverty is concentrated in parts of the world where it will be hardest to eradicate: in Sub-Saharan Africa, in conflict-affected areas, and in rural areas.’

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2022

From https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty

Recent Background

Before the Covid-19 pandemic the situation was already precarious

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/15-07-2019-world-hunger-is-still-not-going-down-after-three-years-and-obesity-is-still-growing-un-report

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/sep/15/alarm-bells-we-cannot-ignore-world-hunger-rising-for-first-time-this-century

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/12/13/rethinking-global-poverty-reduction-in-2019/

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-october-2019-briefing-no-131/

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/poor-diets-damaging-childrens-health-worldwide-warns-unicef

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2019-07/holy-see-un-hunger-report-2019-arellano.html

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/15/higher-temperatures-driving-alarming-levels-hunger-report-climate-crisis

https://www.worldhunger.org/

the Covid-19 pandemic, measured in terms of its effects on the SDGs in October 2021 according to the World Bank:

‘For almost 25 years, extreme poverty — the first of the world’s Sustainable Development Goals — was steadily declining.

Now, for the first time in a generation, the quest to end poverty has suffered a setback.

Global extreme poverty rose in 2020 for the first time in over 20 years as the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic compounded the forces of conflict and climate change, which were already slowing poverty reduction progress. About 100 million additional people are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic.

In 2018, four out of five people below the international poverty line lived in rural areas.

· Half of the poor are children. Women represent a majority of the poor in most regions and among some age groups. About 70 percent of the global poor aged 15 and older have no schooling or only some basic education.

· Almost half of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa live in just five countries: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar.

· More than 40 percent of the global poor live in economies affected by fragility, conflict and violence, and that number is expected to rise to 67 percent in the next decade. Those economies have just 10 percent of the world’s population.

· About 132 million of the global poor live in areas with high flood risk.

Many people who had barely escaped extreme poverty could be forced back into it by the convergence of COVID-19, conflict, and climate change.

The "new poor" probably will:

· Be more urban than the chronic poor.

· Be more engaged in informal services and manufacturing and less in agriculture.

· Live in congested urban settings and work in the sectors most affected by lockdowns and mobility restrictions.

Middle-income countries such as India and Nigeria will be significantly affected; middle-income countries may be home to about 80 percent of the new poor.

New research estimates that climate change will drive 68 million to 132 million into poverty by 2030. Climate change is a particularly acute threat for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — the regions where most of the global poor are concentrated. In a number of countries, a large share of the poor live in areas that are both affected by conflict and facing high exposure to floods — for example, Nepal, Cameroon, Liberia, and the Central African Republic.

The newest and most immediate threat to poverty reduction, COVID-19, has unleashed a worldwide economic disaster whose shock waves continue to spread. Without an adequate global response, the cumulative effects of the pandemic and its economic fallout, armed conflict, and climate change will exact high human and economic costs well into the future.

The latest research suggests that the effects of the current crisis will almost certainly be felt in most countries through 2030. Under these conditions, the goal of bringing the global absolute poverty rate to less than 3 percent by 2030, which was already at risk before the crisis, is now beyond reach without swift, significant, and substantial policy action.

History shows that urgent and collective action can help us tackle this crisis.’ October 2021 according to the World Bank

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/coronavirus

https://feature.undp.org/covid-19-and-the-sdgs/

https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-covid-19-12-charts

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/oct/22/fight-child-poverty-covid-report-un-world-bank

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/

Covid-19 and food security

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

Look at the graph at the bottom of this page. http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/

https://www.ifpri.org/publication/covid-19-and-global-food-security

climate change and food security

climate change evidence: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

basic facts: http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/356770/icode/

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf

before 2020: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-fragile-climate-food.html

and looking forward:

‘COVID-19 caused food insecurity to soar, but climate change will be much worse.’

from: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/climate-change-covid-coronavirus-environment-food-insecurity-security-global/

http://www.fao.org/climate-change/en/

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/40ebbf38f5a6b68bfc11e5273e1405d4-0090012022/related/Food-Security-Update-XCIII-Oct-12-2023.pdf

climate change and how it affects farming:

https://www.heifer.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-agriculture.html

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/071323-how-agriculture-is-exacerbating-climate-conditions

https://www.bayer.com/media/en-us/more-than-70-of-farmers-have-already-seen-large-impacts-of-climate-change-on-their-farm-new-global-research-across-8-countries-reveals/

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/08/748416223/to-slow-global-warming-u-n-warns-agriculture-must-change?t=1572682725514

Demographic growth and food production

In December 2018 the World Resources Institute estimated that the world must sustainably produce 56% more food by 2050 based on 2010 levels.

Feeding 10 billion people sustainably by 2050, then, requires closing three gaps:

A 56 percent food gap between crop calories produced in 2010 and those needed in 2050 under “business as usual” growth;

A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and

An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2^oC (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the worst climate impacts.

From: https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

Thus, many experts argue that given current population growth forecasts for the developing world we will need another leap forward in terms of innovation in farming technology and practices, like the Green Revolution of the 1960s, simply in order to avoid widespread famine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution (also includes criticisms)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug (often credited with saving over a billion people worldwide from starvation).

However, there are fears because increased food production has come at the price of limited crop variety and biodiversity and has involved an increased use of pesticides and more pollution. The growing use of agricultural mono-cultures may not be sustainable in the long term.

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/food-system-monocultures-gm-un-diversity-day

https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/rise-and-fall-monoculture-farming

food scarcity, loss and redistribution, water security

https://awellfedworld.org/scarcity-vs-distribution/

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-agriculture/en/

https://www.intechopen.com/books/desalination-challenges-and-opportunities/world-s-demand-for-food-and-water-the-consequences-of-climate-change

https://news.colead.link/en/world-food-day-2023-highlighting-the-importance-of-water-for-agriculture-and-food/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_security

https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/

https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/climate-change/

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYAiAAEgL1kfD_BwE Read this!

https://www.kemira.com/insights/report-water-management-2040/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=ad&utm_campaign=iw-sustainability&utm_content=report-future-scenarios-2040&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYASAAEgISV_D_BwE

https://www.sciencealert.com/17-countries-are-facing-extreme-water-stress-and-they-hold-a-quarter-of-the-world-s-population

Meanwhile a different trend is affecting many parts of the developed world, low fertility rates and an ageing population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_ageing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/italy-record-low-birth-rate-intl-cmd/index.html#:~:text=Italy%20is%20the%20world's%208th,since%20records%20began%20in%201861.

https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/list-of-countries-by-total-fertility-rate-2023/

The economic effects of an ageing population are varied and there may be some benefits for economies which are expanding. For example, older people often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Moreover, if the population falls and GDP remains constant or grows at a very low rate, (e.g. 0.2 % a year) per capita income actually increases in the short term. Some economists, mainly in Japan, see further advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity for progress in automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a need for a shift from concern about GDP growth to the idea of personal well-being.
However, given the recent economic slowdown in many developed economies (and the effects and costs of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the consequent rise in energy prices and inflation) none of the factors above are likely in the short term to help economies already characterized by high inflation, low levels of consumer spending and high interest rates. Moreover, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some of those met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, the cost of which is likely to increase dramatically as the population ages. This would present governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible shift from taxes on earnings to taxes on consumption, and a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population (there will be fewer people in school), especially if the economy begins to grow again, as fewer young people would probably continue into higher education as they would be in immediate demand as part of the work force. However, with many countries facing high youth unemployment the numbers in higher education may continue to grow as may the numbers of NEETs (not in education, employment or training)..

https://www.idealista.it/en/news/lifestyle-in-italy/2023/06/14/229569-italy-is-among-the-countries-with-the-highest-number-of-neets-in-europe#:~:text=Italy%20is%20among%20the%20countries%20with%20the%20highest%20number%20of%20NEETs%20in%20Europe,-Devin%20Avery%20on&text=In%202022%2C%20more%20than%20one,percentage%20points%20compared%20to%202021.
Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Predefined benefit pension systems are experiencing sustainability problems due to increased longevity. The extension of the pension period by people living longer has not been matched by a rise in pension contributions and has only been partly matched by an extension of the active labour period (a raise in the retirement age), resulting in a decline in replacement ratios. In recent years, many countries have adopted policies to strengthen the financial sustainability of pension systems, although the challenges regarding pension adequacy remain. One solution in favour of social solidarity might be a flat-rate pension (or nearly flat-rate) for all, regardless of (or with little regard for) the level of pension contributions made. Another is simply to raise the age at which one receives a pension on people born later. e.g. This is what is happening in many European countries. Those who prefer the free market may argue for the gradual abolition of public pension schemes in favour of the private sector, thus reducing the burden to the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe#:~:text=2020%2C%20options%20age%2062%E2%80%9368,with%20options%20age%2064%2D69.&text=The%20retirement%20age%20is%20due,Pensions%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom.

https://www.etk.fi/en/the-pension-system/international-comparison/retirement-ages/

Population growth in developing countries also increases migration flows, pressure on the allocation of scarce resources within the country and geographic area and the loss of biodiversity. See:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdfs/news/expert/2020/7/story/20200624STO81906/20200624STO81906_en.pdf

https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/blog/population-growth-is-drivin.html

https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology/Migration

https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/58952/file/ICMPD_Migration_Outlook_2023.pdf

https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/populationfacts/docs/MigrationPopFacts20178.pdf

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2022/08/01/in-developed-countries-migration-is-now-the-primary-driver-of-population-growth_5992145_23.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hotspots-population-growth-areas-high-biodiversity See also the notes on this blog regarding the EU and migration. Though many migrants are refugees seeking political asylum, others are economic migrants moving to escape poverty, the threat of starvation or simply to find better opportunities.

English for Diplomacy