venerdì 1 dicembre 2023

Demographic trends and international relations – including how these relate to the SDGs and the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

Europe

https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/#:~:text=PIP%3A%20Replacement%20level%20fertility%20is,of%202.1%20children%20per%20woman.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/686020/population-of-europe-by-country-and-gender/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253383/total-population-of-the-eu-member-states-by-country/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate

Demographic  growth and climate change

https://populationconnection.org/resources/population-and-climate/#:~:text=Population%20growth%2C%20along%20with%20increasing,risks%20%5B4%2D8%5D.

https://www.un.org/en/desa/population-growth-environmental-degradation-and-climate-change

https://www.populationmedia.org/the-latest/population-growth-and-climate-change#:~:text=Overpopulation%20is%20directly%20contributing%20to,key%20to%20solving%20both%20issues.

Demographic data

https://www.statista.com/chart/28744/world-population-growth-timeline-and-forecast/?utm_source=Statista+Newsletters&utm_campaign=4f471455f9-All_InfographTicker_daily_COM_AM_KW46_2022_Mo_COPY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662f7ed75e-4f471455f9-338756430

http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/356770/icode/ enough to make one despair!

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

http://www.fao.org/3/cb1907en/CB1907EN.pdf

A great presentation, though perhaps over-optimistic, by Prof. Hans Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E

an opposing view:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-sdg-dampen-population-growth-by-frank-gotmark-and-robin-maynard-2019-09

So is the world overpopulated?

 – current world population on 9 November 2023 is estimated to be between 8.07 and 8.09 billion and continues to rise. http://www.census.gov/popclock/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#:~:text=World%20Population%20Clock%3A%208%20Billion,(LIVE%2C%202023)%20%2D%20Worldometer

 It reached 6 billion 23 years ago in October 1999 and 7 billion in October 2011 according to the United Nations Population Fund.                                                                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

Today's world population is more than double the population in1973 (3.9 billion). http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/

World population is estimated to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 - 10.8 billion by 2100 when it should peak and level off. See the video with Hans Rosling above.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#:~:text=The%20UN%20Population%20Division%20report,on%20assumptions%20about%20vital%20rates.

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

In 1900 the world’s population was only 1.6 billion, about a fifth of today’s total. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/worldpopulation.htm

 

TOP 15 MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES (January, 2023)

Country

Population
(2023)

1

India

1,428,627,663

2

China

1,425,671,352

3

United States

339,996,563

4

Indonesia

277,534,122

5

Pakistan

240,485,658

6

Nigeria

223,804,632

7

Brazil

216,422,446

8

Bangladesh

172,954,319

9

Russia

144,444,359

10

Mexico

128,455,567

11

Ethiopia

126,527,060

12

Japan

123,294,513

13

Philippines

117,337,368

14

Egypt

112,716,598

15

DR Congo

102,262,808

 

For the latest update with further data:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

For a list of the countries with the fastest population growth rates see:

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=24

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/

Are there now too many human beings?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation

There is the concept of ‘global population overshoot’ which means that the growth in human population is going beyond the planet’s ability to replenish itself in terms of resources and a sustainable environment. Some environmental experts have argued for an upper limit to sustainable human population, with a range of figures, from 2-3 billion to 7-8 billion. Others argue that it is a problem of the distribution of resources and the management of the levels and types of consumption.

https://unric.org/en/environment-2-august-overshoot-day-for-earths-resources/

https://populationmatters.org/news/2023/05/sustainable-population-the-earth4all-approach/#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20%E2%80%9Cideal%E2%80%9D%20population,figure%20is%202%2D3%20billion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshoot_(population)#:~:text=In%20environmental%20science%2C%20a%20population,up%20a%20potentially%20catastrophic%20crash

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_population

https://www.un.org/en/un-chronicle/world-population-surpasses-8-billion-what-are-implications-planetary-health-and

The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in our use of the world’s resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and optimistic scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a figure that current estimates show has already been reached. The rapid growth in global population thus has dramatic direct consequences for the number of people in the developing world (particularly in poor countries in Asia and Africa) who already face or may soon face starvation, hunger or malnutrition as well as serious consequences for sustainable global development (given the ultimately finite nature of fossil fuel reserves and raw materials such as minerals, chemicals and rare metals) and a range of environmental issues. Though the percentage of people living in extreme poverty fell up to 2019, the percentage living in relative poverty remained high. Moreover, a large number of people were living just above the poverty threshold and were therefore at risk in the event of environmental or natural disasters and price variations. And with Covid-19 this is exactly what has happened.

Situation in 2020: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/goal-01/#:~:text=Estimates%20suggest%20that%202020%20saw,the%20progress%20made%20since%202016. Then click on goal 2, 3 and 4

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/

Situation in 2023: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2023/Goal-01/ Then click on goal 2, 3 and 4

So the number of people facing extreme poverty, starvation, hunger or malnutrition actually rose in many low-income countries in 2020. At current estimates progress towards SDGs 1, 2, 3 and 4 will not be sufficient to meet the goals by 2030.

The current overview according to the World Bank (November 2022)

‘The World Bank Group’s goals are to end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity. This mission underpins our analytical, operational, and convening work in about 140 client countries.

For three decades, the number of people living in extreme poverty— defined as those who live on less than $2.15 per person per day at 2017 purchasing power parity—was declining. But the trend was interrupted in 2020, when poverty rose due to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The number of people in extreme poverty rose by 70 million to more than 700 million people. The global extreme poverty rate reached 9.3 percent, up from 8.4 percent in 2019.

The world’s poorest people bore the steepest costs of the pandemic. Their income losses were twice as high as the world’s richest, and global inequality rose for the first time in decades. The poorest also faced large setbacks in health and education which, if left unaddressed by policy action, will have lasting consequences for their lifetime income prospects.

The recovery since then has been uneven. Rising food and energy prices—fueled in part by the war in Ukraine and by climate shocks and conflict—have hindered a swift recovery. By the end of 2022, as many as 685 million people could still be living in extreme poverty.

The recent setbacks took place when the speed of progress toward poverty reduction was already slowing, in tandem with subdued global economic growth.

The recent crises have pushed the world further off track from the global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Given current trends, 574 million people—nearly 7 percent of the world’s population—will still be living on less than $2.15 a day in 2030. And the challenge is made harder by the fact that extreme poverty is concentrated in parts of the world where it will be hardest to eradicate: in Sub-Saharan Africa, in conflict-affected areas, and in rural areas.’

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2022

From https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty

Recent Background

Before the Covid-19 pandemic the situation was already precarious

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/15-07-2019-world-hunger-is-still-not-going-down-after-three-years-and-obesity-is-still-growing-un-report

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/sep/15/alarm-bells-we-cannot-ignore-world-hunger-rising-for-first-time-this-century

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/12/13/rethinking-global-poverty-reduction-in-2019/

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-october-2019-briefing-no-131/

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/poor-diets-damaging-childrens-health-worldwide-warns-unicef 

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/ 

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2019-07/holy-see-un-hunger-report-2019-arellano.html

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/15/higher-temperatures-driving-alarming-levels-hunger-report-climate-crisis

https://www.worldhunger.org/

the Covid-19 pandemic, measured in terms of its effects on the SDGs in October 2021 according to the World Bank:

‘For almost 25 years, extreme poverty — the first of the world’s Sustainable Development Goals — was steadily declining. 

Now, for the first time in a generation, the quest to end poverty has suffered a setback.

Global extreme poverty rose in 2020 for the first time in over 20 years as the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic compounded the forces of conflict and climate change, which were already slowing poverty reduction progress. About 100 million additional people are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic.

In 2018, four out of five people below the international poverty line lived in rural areas.

·                     Half of the poor are children. Women represent a majority of the poor in most regions and among some age groups. About 70 percent of the global poor aged 15 and older have no schooling or only some basic education.

·                     Almost half of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa live in just five countries: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar.

·                     More than 40 percent of the global poor live in economies affected by fragility, conflict and violence, and that number is expected to rise to 67 percent in the next decade. Those economies have just 10 percent of the world’s population.

·                     About 132 million of the global poor live in areas with high flood risk.

Many people who had barely escaped extreme poverty could be forced back into it by the convergence of COVID-19, conflict, and climate change.

 The "new poor" probably will:  

·                     Be more urban than the chronic poor.

·                     Be more engaged in informal services and manufacturing and less in agriculture.

·                     Live in congested urban settings and work in the sectors most affected by lockdowns and mobility restrictions.

Middle-income countries such as India and Nigeria will be significantly affected; middle-income countries may be home to about 80 percent of the new poor.

New research estimates that climate change will drive 68 million to 132 million into poverty by 2030. Climate change is a particularly acute threat for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — the regions where most of the global poor are concentrated. In a number of countries, a large share of the poor live in areas that are both affected by conflict and facing high exposure to floods — for example, Nepal, Cameroon, Liberia, and the Central African Republic.

The newest and most immediate threat to poverty reduction, COVID-19, has unleashed a worldwide economic disaster whose shock waves continue to spread. Without an adequate global response, the cumulative effects of the pandemic and its economic fallout, armed conflict, and climate change will exact high human and economic costs well into the future.

The latest research suggests that the effects of the current crisis will almost certainly be felt in most countries through 2030. Under these conditions, the goal of bringing the global absolute poverty rate to less than 3 percent by 2030, which was already at risk before the crisis, is now beyond reach without swift, significant, and substantial policy action.

History shows that urgent and collective action can help us tackle this crisis.’ October 2021 according to the World Bank

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/coronavirus

https://feature.undp.org/covid-19-and-the-sdgs/

https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-covid-19-12-charts

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/oct/22/fight-child-poverty-covid-report-un-world-bank

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/

Covid-19 and food security

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

Look at the graph at the bottom of this page. http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/

https://www.ifpri.org/publication/covid-19-and-global-food-security

climate change and food security

climate change evidence: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

basic facts: http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/356770/icode/

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf

before 2020: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-fragile-climate-food.html

and looking forward:

‘COVID-19 caused food insecurity to soar, but climate change will be much worse.’

from: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/climate-change-covid-coronavirus-environment-food-insecurity-security-global/

http://www.fao.org/climate-change/en/

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/40ebbf38f5a6b68bfc11e5273e1405d4-0090012022/related/Food-Security-Update-XCIII-Oct-12-2023.pdf

climate change and how it affects farming:

https://www.heifer.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-agriculture.html

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/071323-how-agriculture-is-exacerbating-climate-conditions

https://www.bayer.com/media/en-us/more-than-70-of-farmers-have-already-seen-large-impacts-of-climate-change-on-their-farm-new-global-research-across-8-countries-reveals/

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/08/748416223/to-slow-global-warming-u-n-warns-agriculture-must-change?t=1572682725514

 Demographic growth and food production

In December 2018 the World Resources Institute estimated that the world must sustainably produce 56% more food by 2050 based on 2010 levels.

Feeding 10 billion people sustainably by 2050, then, requires closing three gaps:

A 56 percent food gap between crop calories produced in 2010 and those needed in 2050 under “business as usual” growth;

A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and

An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2oC (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the worst climate impacts.

From: https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

Thus, many experts argue that given current population growth forecasts for the developing world we will need another leap forward in terms of innovation in farming technology and practices, like the Green Revolution of the 1960s, simply in order to avoid widespread famine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution (also includes criticisms)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug  (often credited with saving over a billion people worldwide from starvation).

However, there are fears because increased food production has come at the price of limited crop variety and biodiversity and has involved an increased use of pesticides and more pollution. The growing use of agricultural mono-cultures may not be sustainable in the long term.

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/food-system-monocultures-gm-un-diversity-day

https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/rise-and-fall-monoculture-farming

food scarcity, loss and redistribution, water security

https://awellfedworld.org/scarcity-vs-distribution/

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-agriculture/en/

https://www.intechopen.com/books/desalination-challenges-and-opportunities/world-s-demand-for-food-and-water-the-consequences-of-climate-change

https://news.colead.link/en/world-food-day-2023-highlighting-the-importance-of-water-for-agriculture-and-food/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_security

https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/

https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/climate-change/

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYAiAAEgL1kfD_BwE  Read this!

https://www.kemira.com/insights/report-water-management-2040/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=ad&utm_campaign=iw-sustainability&utm_content=report-future-scenarios-2040&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1crUndmTggMVpZSDBx0V-wINEAAYASAAEgISV_D_BwE

https://www.sciencealert.com/17-countries-are-facing-extreme-water-stress-and-they-hold-a-quarter-of-the-world-s-population

Meanwhile a different trend is affecting many parts of the developed world, low fertility rates and an ageing population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_ageing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/italy-record-low-birth-rate-intl-cmd/index.html#:~:text=Italy%20is%20the%20world's%208th,since%20records%20began%20in%201861.

https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/list-of-countries-by-total-fertility-rate-2023/

The economic effects of an ageing population are varied and there may be some benefits for economies which are expanding. For example, older people often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Moreover, if the population falls and GDP remains constant or grows at a very low rate, (e.g.  0.2 % a year) per capita income actually increases in the short term. Some economists, mainly in Japan, see further advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity for progress in automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a need for a shift from concern about GDP growth to the idea of personal well-being.
However, given the recent economic slowdown in many developed economies (and the effects and costs of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the consequent rise in energy prices and inflation) none of the factors above are likely in the short term to help economies already characterized by high inflation, low levels of consumer spending and high interest rates. Moreover, population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some of those met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now
health care, the cost of which is likely to increase dramatically as the population ages. This would present governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible shift from taxes on earnings to taxes on consumption, and a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is
education and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population (there will be fewer people in school), especially if the economy begins to grow again, as fewer young people would probably continue into higher education as they would be in immediate demand as part of the work force. However, with many countries facing high youth unemployment the numbers in higher education may continue to grow as may the numbers of NEETs (not in education, employment or training)..

https://www.idealista.it/en/news/lifestyle-in-italy/2023/06/14/229569-italy-is-among-the-countries-with-the-highest-number-of-neets-in-europe#:~:text=Italy%20is%20among%20the%20countries%20with%20the%20highest%20number%20of%20NEETs%20in%20Europe,-Devin%20Avery%20on&text=In%202022%2C%20more%20than%20one,percentage%20points%20compared%20to%202021.
Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Predefined
benefit pension systems are experiencing sustainability problems due to increased longevity. The extension of the pension period by people living longer has not been matched by a rise in pension contributions and has only been partly matched by an extension of the active labour period (a raise in the retirement age), resulting in a decline in replacement ratios. In recent years, many countries have adopted policies to strengthen the financial sustainability of pension systems, although the challenges regarding pension adequacy remain. One solution in favour of social solidarity might be a flat-rate pension (or nearly flat-rate) for all, regardless of (or with little regard for) the level of pension contributions made. Another is simply to raise the age at which one receives a pension on people born later. e.g. This is what is happening in many European countries. Those who prefer the free market may argue for the gradual abolition of public pension schemes in favour of the private sector, thus reducing the burden to the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe#:~:text=2020%2C%20options%20age%2062%E2%80%9368,with%20options%20age%2064%2D69.&text=The%20retirement%20age%20is%20due,Pensions%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom.

https://www.etk.fi/en/the-pension-system/international-comparison/retirement-ages/

Population growth in developing countries also increases migration flows, pressure on the allocation of scarce resources within the country and geographic area and the loss of biodiversity. See:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdfs/news/expert/2020/7/story/20200624STO81906/20200624STO81906_en.pdf

https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/blog/population-growth-is-drivin.html

https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology/Migration

https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/58952/file/ICMPD_Migration_Outlook_2023.pdf

https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/populationfacts/docs/MigrationPopFacts20178.pdf

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2022/08/01/in-developed-countries-migration-is-now-the-primary-driver-of-population-growth_5992145_23.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability                              https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hotspots-population-growth-areas-high-biodiversity              See also the notes on this blog regarding the EU and migration. Though many migrants are refugees seeking political asylum, others are economic migrants moving to escape poverty, the threat of starvation or simply to find better opportunities.

See also older material like:

The New Population Bomb, Jack A. Goldstone, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010

https://www.sneps.net/t/MSc/images/Articles/10Goldstone%20pop%20bomb.pdf

Against the Grain, C. F. Runge and C. P. Runge, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010   

http://relooney.com/NS4053/0_NS4053_825.pdf

The Demographic Future, Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.6, Nov/Dec 2010 http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/68690e7b35d02ba894dda06bcdf415dc/dc_the_demographic_future_eberstadt_foreignaffairs_novdez_2010.pdf

Baby Gap, Stephen Philip Kramer, Foreign Affairs Volume 91, No.3, May/June 2012 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/baby-gap

 

How will current population trends affect international relations?

Some ideas for an essay:

Size of current world population and forecasts for the future / rate of growth, current trends and the predicted slow-down in rate of growth but only stabilizing in 2100 / statistics on number of starving and suffering from malnutrition, and number of people now at risk of starvation or malnutrition in the near future. Look at the situation before the Covid-19 pandemic and since then.

Growing pressure on world’s resources and environment / food / water / shelter / medical care / finite reserves of fossil fuels and raw materials / the need for recycling on a much larger scale / deforestation / desertification / land, air and sea pollution / urbanization / destruction of rural habitat / endangered wildlife and reduced biodiversity / an increase in carbon and other emissions /climate change / examples and statistics? / the difficulty of asking poor countries to make sacrifices in terms of greener policies

Problems for poor countries with high population growth rates / you could look at all the above-mentioned factors but at a local level by focusing on the statistics and information for one country or area in Africa or Asia e.g. the Horn of Africa / also gender issues, e.g.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ETH/ethiopia/population-growth-rate

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SOM/somalia/population-growth-rate#:~:text=The%20current%20population%20of%20Somalia,a%203.2%25%20increase%20from%202020.

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/situation-report--greater-horn-of-africa-food-insecurity-and-health---grade-3-emergency---1-april-2023---30-june-2023#:~:text=Approximately%2011.5%20million%20children%20under,treatment%20for%20severe%20acute%20malnutrition.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1138087

https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/horn-of-africa-projections-of-a-famine-in-2023/

https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/

https://www.unicef.org/esa/media/12146/file/Demographic_Fast_Facts_2023%20Update.pdf

And the effects of the pandemic https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/coronavirus-and-fragility-impact-covid-19-somalias-private-sector

http://www.fao.org/3/cb0198en/CB0198EN.pdf

Challenges for developing countries – At the moment we produce enough food globally to feed the world’s population. The problem is the use of much of this foof as fodder for animals in meat production, the unequal distribution in the production of food resources between rich and poor countries and the lack of infrastructure in developing countries to allow the effective delivery of food from other regions in normal times, or from outside the country in terms of emergency aid at a time of crisis.

/unemployment and underemployment (difficulty of creating jobs as quickly as the population grows) , large disparities in the distribution of wealth leading to political unrest (and often repression by authoritarian regimes) with poor, stagnant or worsening living conditions and political instability -  provide examples and statistics for any of these, e.g. North Africa?

/ an increase in migration from / the country to the city / poor, overpopulated countries to other slightly less poor, more stable countries / to wealthier ones e. g. to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states / to North America / to Europe / remittances sent back home / examples and data for all or any of these.

/ and as we have now seen, a greater likelihood of the spread of epidemic diseases and the danger of a pandemic as more people and goods circulate / the interplay of the Covid-19 pandemic with these different trends.

Challenges for many rich countries – ageing populations / so without migrants or raising retirement ages  further there will be a reduction in the workforce, and without continuous technological development and greater automation there will be a fall in GDP / growing pressure on welfare systems, in particular on the health care system and the social security and pension system / burden carried by those in work / countries with declining population levels and low growth rates may see a similar decline in their influence on world affairs / immigration and cultural diversity can lead to social conflict instead of harmony and cultural enrichment / problems of acceptance and integration /educatiob/ security / terrorism / the interplay of the Covid-19 pandemic with these different issues.

 

The real and wider problem for the international community is the need for coordinated cooperation strategies in which all states agree to take part (and to honour their commitments) in order to overcome a series of long-term challenges which now seem to be interrelated (as set out in the UN's SDGs):

      1) Dealing effectively with environmental degradation and pollution, protecting wildlife and biodiversity (any successful examples?)

      2)  Regulating carbon emissions (and other shorter-lived atmospheric pollutants) and slowing climate change (describe current situation) and reducing pollution due to plastics

      3) Avoiding competition for scarce resources like clean water and food and agreeing a more equitable distribution / avoiding wasting these resources / examples, the water of the Nile and the countries of North-East Africa / avoiding competition for fossil fuel reserves and scarce raw materials and rare earths

      4)  Regulating migration, protecting the rights of migrants and fostering integration, while enhancing security and counter-terrorism

      5) Rapidly developing alternative, greener, cleaner and renewable sources of energy (preferably not bio-mass sources like ethanol which may reduce the food supply) and reducing waste by using our resources more intelligently.

      6) Increasing and diversifying food production. In 2019 the US produced 32% of the world’s corn and 29% of its soybeans (critics also argue that too much US corn is now used for bio-fuels), while 30 low-income countries were food-deficit countries. In 2009 the FAO said global food production needed to increase by 70% (and production needed to double in developing countries) to support a global population expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

(In December 2018 the World Resources Institute had estimated that the world must sustainably produce 56% more food by 2050 based on 2010 levels).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/35571/icode/   https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn https://www.statista.com/statistics/254294/distribution-of-global-corn-production-by-country-2012/  

http://www.worldstopexports.com/soya-beans-exports-country/

How is this to be achieved? Would better redistribution of resources be enough or do we need some kind of agricultural/technological revolution?

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/fao-refocuses-on-green-revolution-calls-for-adopting-climate-sensitive-tech/article28916084.ece

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2018/03/sustainable-agriculture-and-food-security

The debate about GMOs (genetically modified organisms) to increase food production and the need for another Green Revolution or something similar, but fears about agricultural monocultures. Better information could be made available to small-scale farmers through the Global Open Data for Agriculture and Nutrition IT project.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Open_Data_for_Agriculture_and_Nutrition

8) The need to recognise the Covid-19 pandemic as a global challenge and cooperate to respond to it effectively and to be prepared for similar challenges in the future.

      9) Encouraging sex education and voluntary birth control, although this is controversial for some countries and cultures. Point out the dangers of China’s former one-child policy (female infanticide), now abandoned in favour of a two-child policy (Oct. 2015) and India’s 1970s’ voluntary sterilization policy (the poor are more likely to volunteer if there are cash incentives and this is a form of discrimination).

      https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html

      https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/4/10-083329/en/

      10) More importantly, the UN stresses that we should promote and support female primary, secondary school and higher education and their entrance into the work force in countries with a rapidly rising population, since the biggest single factors in reducing fertility rates seem to be education and the empowerment of women.

      http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/pop994.doc.htm

http://www.popcouncil.org/pdfs/wp/pgy/020.pdf

In the absence of successful diplomacy leading to an agreed international approach to these problems, one could expect to see growing competition for limited resources, conflicts resulting directly from such competition, mass migrations and policies regarding global challenges decided on an inadequate, ad hoc, nation by nation basis. In such a scenario we may all end up as losers, but those most at risk in terms of food, health and economic security and basic living conditions will be the first victims. 

https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/climate-change-turns-african-rivers-epicentres-conflict

https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/nile-river-dispute-fostering-human-security-approach#:~:text=The%20dispute%20involves%20Egypt%2C%20Sudan,1929%20and%201959%20watercourse%20treaties.

https://news.nd.edu/news/with-land-grabs-comes-competition-for-water-and-local-farmers-are-likely-to-lose/

https://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/omovalley

https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/global/competition

https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2006/sep/01/guardianweekly.guardianweekly1

As Sustainable Development Goal 17 makes clear, in order to deal with the problems caused or made worse by population trends a global partnership will be necessary.

https://sdgcompass.org/sdgs/sdg-17/  Read this carefully

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg17


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