A possible essay plan on the decline of the US and the West

Is the leadership of the US and the West within the international community coming to an end?

Introduction: Refer to a piece of recent news about China that suggests that US leadership of the international community is in doubt. Contrast this with the US role since 1945. The Bretton Woods institutions, Marshall Plan and and Western alliance.

Line of argument: This essay will argue that the decline of the US in economic terms is real but exaggerated and that militarily it remains the most powerful state. However, its real strength against any challenge launched by China is twofold, its leadership of NATO (and its other non-NATO allies), whose combined military and economic resources outweigh any challengers, and its soft power in terms of the values it shares with its allies and which are embedded in the liberal international order. China, as events in Hong Kong suggest, may be admired by other autocracies but is unlikely to be an attractive political model for nations and people aspiring to greater freedom.

Provide a summary of the current size and performance of the US and Chinese economies, the recent past and forecasts for the future. GDP in nominal and PPP terms and then in per capita terms. Compare and contrast including technology, research and education. China's economic expansionism,The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), The New Development Bank (NDB), The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its investments in Africa. Then add in the weight of the other Western economies and compare again.

Compare and contrast the US and China's military spending and assets. China has Russian support on some issues. China is already or will be a major regional power although its neighbors may move closer to the US for security. Point out that the US has its NATO and other allies and their resources far exceed those of China.

Conclusion: It is unclear how far China really intends to challenge the current international order or if it simply wants to play a greater role within it. At the economic level, this would be a good thing for the global community and should be welcomed.

It is also unclear whether the Chinese political order is an attractive model for other states compared with the democratic model, even for China's BRICS partners like India, Brazil and South Africa. The US unipolar era is over and a genuinely multi-polar order may be a positive evolution. Argue that although the US is in relative decline compared with China this is not true of the West as a whole and even less true if we consider the 'West' as all those states, groups and individuals aspiring to Western values. As regards US leadership a different question has emerged with President Trump's administration, not whether the US is no longer able to lead but whether it may choose not to lead. This is another reason for a more multi-polar approach to international relations and suggests that other Western states, the EU in particular, may have to play a greater role in preserving and strengthening the liberal order.