Background
Arab North Africa (the Maghreb and Egypt) is, or at least was until recently, generally slightly richer than most of central sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel and has faced different problems (e.g. mainly youth unemployment and a widespread demand for political change expressed through the events of the Arab Spring) while economic and social problems, apart from rising food prices, were less severe. However, with the political tensions in Egypt and other North African countries and post-regime faction-fighting in Libya, stability in this region is threatened and the economic situation has deteriorated, hitting oil exports from Libya and tourism in Egypt and Tunisia. This is also true, but to a greater extent, for the Sahel and Horn of Africa region (the transition area between Arab North Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa where the two cultures meet and mix) which is now struggling with the spread of radical Islamist movements – terrorism, armed insurgency, migration and human trafficking. The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted living standards throughout Africa. That being said, the focus of these notes is mainly sub-Saharan Africa proper, although some of what is said also applies to the Sahel and Maghreb regions.
60 years ago, much of Asia was poorer than sub-Saharan Africa. There are still many poor areas in Asia, but today significant areas of Asia are richer than sub-Saharan Africa. So, what went wrong in Africa? Why did sub-Saharan Africa not grow economically the way parts of Asia grew? Its colonial past is a partial but perhaps not an adequate explanation since Asia and South America also suffered from European domination and exploitation but their economies have grown more rapidly. Can this situation be changed? And is it, in fact, already changing?
One can argue the case both ways. So, it may be useful to start by looking at what are traditionally seen as some of the area’s main difficulties:
1) Poverty – According to GDP (both nominal and PPP) per capita statistics from the IMF (2020 estimates) and World Bank (2019), many sub-Saharan African countries are among the poorest in the world. Most African states (with some interesting exceptions) are in the bottom half of the list. By contrast, most of North Africa is in the middle range. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Long-term and recent background - according to World Bank estimates (published 2016), the share of Africans who are poor fell from 56% in 1990 to 43% in 2012. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report https://www.un.org/africarenewal/sites/www.un.org.africarenewal/files/Poverty%20in%20a%20Rising%20Africa%20Overview.pdf However, because of population growth many more people are poor, the report says. The most optimistic scenario showed about 330 million poor in 2012, up from about 280 million in 1990, an increase of 50 million). Poverty reduction is slowest in fragile countries, the report notes, and rural areas remain much poorer, although the urban-rural gap has narrowed. In 2015 the majority of the world's poor were again in Africa, 413 million people. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/accelerating-poverty-reduction-in-africa-in-five-charts https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/11/21/figure-of-the-week-understanding-poverty-in-africa/ https://www.dw.com/en/world-bank-report-poverty-rates-remain-high-in-africa/a-45926382

This sent the SDGs’ target of eliminating or massively reducing global poverty worldwide into crisis, at least as regards Africa. https://nextbillion.net/sme-investment-for-african-poverty/#:~:text=A%20Global%20Failure%20That%20Hits%20Hard%20in%20Africa&text=Projections%20indicate%20that%20over%2023,be%20living%20in%20extreme%20poverty.&text=It's%20easy%20to%20see%20that,lift%20Africa%20out%20of%20poverty. In 2019 the figure for Africans in poverty was 422 million, or 70% of the world’s poor. 66% of the global extreme poor lived in sub-Saharan Africa in 2021.

https://devinit.org/resources/poverty-trends-global-regional-and-national/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/03/28/poverty-in-africa-is-now-falling-but-not-fast-enough/#:~:text=Today%2C%20one%20in%20three%20Africans,in%20the%20fight%20against%20poverty. https://worldpoverty.io/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/12/13/rethinking-global-poverty-reduction-in-2019/

While poverty rates had been slowly increasing on the continent since the beginning of the SDG period (2015), from 2019-2020 the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic worsened the situation. In 2020 the number of people living in extreme poverty in Africa was projected to jump to nearly 520 million Africans. This is around 40% of the entire population of 1.39 billion on the continent. https://oecd-development-matters.org/2020/10/12/covid-19-has-pushed-extreme-poverty-numbers-in-africa-to-over-half-a-billion/#:~:text=The%20increase%20in%20the%20DRC,are%20living%20in%20extreme%20poverty.

The impact on children was particularly dramatic.

https://www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/poverty-in-africa

The situation in December 2021

https://unctad.org/press-material/facts-and-figures-7

Inclusive growth is growth that reduces poverty and inequality

Poverty levels declined in most African countries: On average, the proportion of African households with a consumption level below the 1.9$/day poverty line declined from 40% in 2010 to 34% in 2019. At below 3.2 $/day, the poverty rate fell from 63% to 59%; and at below 5.5 $/day, it fell from 83% to 80%.
On the other hand, inequality has widened between and within African countries. The Gini index, measuring the distribution of income, ranges from 27.6% (Algeria) to 63.3% (South Africa), where 0% indicates that everyone has the same income and 100% implies that one household receives all the income.

The pandemic has led to increased poverty levels in Africa

Africa stands out as the most-affected region in the world in terms of loss of income of poor households: the 2021 poverty headcount rate (at $1.90 purchasing power parity (PPP)/day) is estimated to have increased by three percentage points because of the pandemic (compared to pre-COVID-19 estimates of poverty levels in 2021).
While in 2019, 478 million people lived in extreme poverty, it is estimated that in 2021, 490 million people in Africa live under the poverty line of 1.90 PPP$/day, and this is 37 million people more than what was projected without the pandemic.

Less than half of all African countries have experienced inclusive growth between 2000 and 2020

Growth has been inclusive (poverty- and inequality-reducing growth) in only 17 out of 49 African countries in the sample; poverty-reducing, but inequality-increasing in 18 countries; and non-inclusive on either dimension in 14 African countries.

Current outlook 2023-4

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/10/global-economic-prospects#:~:text=In%20Sub%2DSaharan%20Africa%E2%80%94which,rates%20to%20rise%2C%20not%20fall.

Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%—a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.

“The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates. Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”

And https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228553/extreme-poverty-as-share-of-global-population-in-africa-by-country/

See the section below on the SDGs in Are Things Changing?

Thus, many other problems are made much more serious because of the scale of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and a consequent lack of domestic funds to deal with the challenges. Africa as a whole represents about 3.0% of global GDP but about 17% of world population (1.36 billion as of Jan 2021 with an annual growth rate of 2.5% and thus a forecast of 2.5 billion in 2050).

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/africa-global-growth-economics-worldwide-gdp/#:~:text=Africa%20today%20accounts%20for%20around,tremendous%20opportunities%20and%20risks%20ahead.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth was 2.6% in 2019, contracted by -2% in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, was 4.7% in 2021 and about 3.6% in 2022. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2022/10/14/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2022

However, in Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/10/global-economic-prospects#:~:text=Sub%2DSaharan%20Africa%3A%20Growth%20is,rise%20to%203.9%25%20in%202024.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=ZG

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/06/sub-saharan-africa-exits-recession-in-2021-but-recovery-still-vulnerable

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/10/20/na102021-seven-charts-that-show-sub-saharan-africa-at-a-crucial-point#:~:text=After%20an%20unparalleled%20contraction%20in,global%20trade%20and%20financial%20conditions.

However, population growth contributes to poverty levels by reducing this GDP growth when measured as GDP income per capita.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/africa-global-growth-economics-worldwide-gdp/#:~:text=Africa%20today%20accounts%20for%20around,tremendous%20opportunities%20and%20risks%20ahead.

Africa's population is the youngest among all the continents; the average age in 2021 was 19.7, when the worldwide median age was 29.6. Life expectancy in 2020 was 62 for men and 65 for women compared with 70 and 75 globally).

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/#:~:text=Africa%20Population%20(LIVE)&text=Africa%20population%20is%20equivalent%20to,117%20people%20per%20mi2).&text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Africa%20is%2019.7years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/274511/life-expectancy-in-africa/

https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure#:~:text=In%20the%20map%20we%20see,was%20Niger%20at%2014.9%20years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268766/median-age-of-the-world-population/

And population in some of the poorest countries is forecast to rise rapidly (see point 14 below). This will hold down growth in per capita income, and feeding and providing for their citizens will be a serious challenge for the countries affected:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2341084/Global-population-soar-11-billion-2100-African-population-quadruples.html

2) The most detrimental consequence of the colonial period in Africa may be the borders of many of its modern states. These reflect European colonial administrative areas and do not reflect ethnic, religious or linguistic divisions in Africa. This has led, and leads to ethnic and religious tensions, conflicts, civil wars and wars of secession. This results in internally displaced persons, refugees and migration. Though the number of conflicts and civil wars diminished significantly in the last 15 years, it rose in 2019 and about a third of sub-Saharan African countries are still involved in significant violent conflict, insurgencies or human rights violations by a repressive government. As a result, the rule of law is fragile in many areas. All of this has economic consequences. The Sahel is a region of particular concern, given the inability of either United Nations peacekeepers, the French military or the regional G5 Sahel security force to fully contain the jihadist insurgency.

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/sahel-20-years-war-terror-has-created-more-and-stronger-enemies-31617

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2019-march-2020/work-progress-africa%E2%80%99s-remaining-conflict-hotspots

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/conflict-still-africa-s-biggest-challenge-2020

file:///C:/Users/HP/Downloads/wpiea2020221-print-pdf.pdf

and old but interesting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/conflict-and-conflict-resolution-in-africa/#:~:text=Conflicts%20in%20the%20different%20sub%2Dregions%20of%20Africa&text=In%20East%20Africa%2C%20the%20war,significant%20examples%20of%20protracted%20conflicts.

3) There is a serious lack of infrastructure and what there is may be in poor condition. A city on the coast of Africa is linked to the globalized economy by its position (although it may not have adequate port facilities) but, without an adequate road system, towns and rural areas inland are cut off from each other and the coast. This creates problems for international and domestic trade and also for the delivery of aid. It may help to explain why only 10.5% of Africa’s trade is with other African countries.

https://www.raconteur.net/business-innovation/africa-lack-infrastructure-leaves-millions-poverty-despite-potential

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Energy-and-Resources/dttl-er-power-addressing-africas-infrastructure-challenges.pdf

https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/why-we-need-to-close-the-infrastructure-gap-in-sub-saharan-africa

4) There are some failed states and fragile (failing states, i.e. on the verge of failure) where weak governments are unable to enforce the rule of law against armed bands, the product of widespread poverty and ethnic tensions (e.g. Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic). The situation in the Sahel region remains critical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/2020-fragile-states-index-rankings-lives-upended

https://www.devex.com/news/tackling-the-problems-of-fragile-states-in-africa-90212

https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/dsgsm1067.doc.htm

5) Poor governance, government corruption (bribes, favoritism) unemployment and a relatively rich ruling class elite which is often cut off from the population and indifferent to it, and manages to take a large part of the wealth produced. There is also a lot of red-tape (bureaucracy), a legal system that does not work for the poor and a democratic deficit. Political and administrative institutions may be absent, or inefficient, or work mainly to protect the interests of the ruling elite. This is often seen as the main barrier to long-term, equitable economic and social progress. With greater democratization this may be starting to change. With the spread of multiparty democracy political leaders have begun to respond to the needs of the electorate instead of representing only the interests of the local ruling class. One example is that of allowing the national currency to exchange at a more realistic lower rate. This has benefited farmers whose exports have become more competitive.

https://www.africanexponent.com/post/8304-poor-governance-corruption-and-insecurity-major-problems-confronting-africa

https://www.transparency.org/en/news/citizens-speak-out-about-corruption-in-africa

6) The health challenge and mortality rates

https://www.who.int/bulletin/africanhealth/en/

HIV/AIDS and other epidemic and common diseases such as widespread malaria, cholera, tuberculosis, yellow fever, sleeping sickness, Dengue fever, Hepatitis, Onchocerciasis or “river blindness”, meningitis, typhoid etc. continue to have a devastating impact in many areas of Africa. Some areas are still recovering from the recent Ebola crisis and in 2021 the Covid-19 pandemic damaged the provision of a range of health services

https://www.afro.who.int/news/covid-19-hits-life-saving-health-services-africa

There is also the threat of starvation in some areas and the much greater threat of widespread malnutrition. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area of the world hardest hit by the combination of diseases, malnourishment and thus a weakened immune system, and the absence or scarcity of basic resources, medical care and facilities for prevention of diseases (e.g. vaccinations) and treatment, as well as funds for all this. Health care and nutrition education are obviously also linked to poverty and a lack of general education. People with HIV/AIDS and other debilitating diseases are often very young, so there are and will be for some time fewer healthy workers and more sick people to look after in the worst hit areas. They are often socially abandoned or shunned.
http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/
In December 2013 there was an Ebola crisis which expanded rapidly and was a terrible example of the kind of health challenges Africa faces. As well as lives it also hit the economy of much of West Africa:
According to the United Nations Development Group (UNDG), West Africa as a whole may have lost an average of at least US$3.6 billion per year between 2014 and 2017, due to a decrease in trade, closing of borders, flight cancellations and reduced Foreign Direct Investment and tourism activity, fueled by stigma.
This has also had an important impact on human development. The region’s per capita income is expected to fall by US$18.00 per year between 2015 and 2017. In Côte d’Ivoire, the poverty rate has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points because of Ebola, while in Senegal, the proportion of people living below the national poverty line could increase by up to 1.8 percent in 2014. In addition, food insecurity in countries such as Mali, and Guinea-Bissau is expected to increase.
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/03/12/west-african-economies-feeling-ripple-effects-of-ebola-says-un.html

http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/11/nigerian-virologist-delivers-scathing-analysis-africas-response-ebola

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_African_Ebola_virus_epidemic
Finally on March 29, 2016, the WHO terminated the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/4991931-181/two-years-later-guinea-declared
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033
7) In the opinion of some experts in Africa there is an over-dependence on aid from the international community, the UN, NGOs, bilateral agreements etc., a kind of culture of dependence instead of a situation where countries in Africa gradually acquire the means to deal with their problems themselves. Is there something wrong with the way aid is delivered?

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/04/20/making-africa-great-again-reducing-aid-dependency/

https://africanarguments.org/2020/04/aid-has-failed-coronavirus-covid-19-both-exposes-this-and-offers-the-chance-for-a-reset/

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343889563_Foreign_Aid_fosters_Dependency_in_Africa_A_Case_of_Kenya
8) Africa’s economies are generally based too narrowly on a limited number of commodities, both agricultural products and raw materials. Thus they are particularly subject to price fluctuations on the international market. Much of the area’s recent growth may have been a result of rising commodity prices and the economic problems of 2020 were partly due to the decline in commodity prices. When these prices rose again in 2021 growth returned, but this does not necessarily represent real economic development. Despite significant GDP growth in a number of African countries over the last decade, there has been much less growth in manufacturing, a key indicator for long-term growth (in Asia for example). For many African countries manufacturing still accounts for the same limited share of the economy as it did in the 1970s. The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Africa’s economies hard, though according to the World Bank its current prospects are better

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/cb15f6d7442eadedf75bb95c4fdec1b3-0350012022/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2022-Regional-Overview-SSA.pdf

https://www.theigc.org/blog/africa-industrialization-week-2020-industrial-development-trade-and-covid-19/

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/september-2020/how-africa-can-manufacture-meet-its-own-pharmaceutical-needs

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=754034459&Country=South%20Africa&topic=Economy&subt_2

https://www.accaglobal.com/uk/en/member/member/accounting-business/2017/11/insights/africa-diversify.html

https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/02/17/africa-needs-diversification/

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-continental-strategy-for-economic-diversification-through-the-afcfta-and-intellectual-property-rights/

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/september-2020/covid-19-crisis-amplifies-urgency-economic-diversification-africa

9) Some experts claim there is enormous and continuing exploitation by foreign companies with the cooperation of local elites. However, many commentators stress instead the low level of economic activity in Africa as the fundamental problem. African economies are highly dependent on exports (as a percentage of GDP) but paradoxically export relatively little (in economic terms) compared with other areas of the globe.

https://unctad.org/press-material/facts-figures-0#:~:text=The%20share%20of%20exports%20from,of%20the%20world%20is%20Oceania.

Africa’s exports represent only 3% of the world’s exports but Africa has 16-17% of the world’s population. Moreover, the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) has negatively impacted foreign direct investments in Africa. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicted a fall of between 25 and 40% in 2020. Africa needs to boost intra-African trade and by lowering trade costs significantly the Trade Facilitation Agreement could do this.

https://sdg.iisd.org/news/wto-report-highlights-programmes-to-strengthen-africas-trade-capacity/#:~:text=While%20African%20trade%20in%20goods,of%20global%20imports%20and%20exports.https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Africa-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/blog/trade-key-africa%E2%80%99s-economic-growth

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Africa-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics

https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/africa_competitiveness_report_2017.pdf

https://www.tralac.org/blog/article/14720-covid-19-to-curtail-fdi-flows-to-africa-in-2020-how-to-mitigate-the-effects-in-the-long-term.html#:~:text=The%20coronavirus%20(COVID%2D19),to%2040%20percent%20in%202020.

http://www.labour.gov.za/south-africa-hits-all-time-low-in-competitiveness-ranking

10) Many African countries have large public debts and difficulty in financing those debts. Debt cancellation by more advanced economies has helped, but not resolved the problem.

https://mg.co.za/africa/2020-12-19-debt-forgiveness-will-top-the-african-agenda-in-2021/

https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-much-should-sub-saharan-african-countries-adjust-curb-increase-public-debt

11) There is often a bad business environment for both domestic and foreign investors / high taxes /a need to pay bribes / insecurity of ownership / insecurity regarding basic services, e.g. power cuts. Changing this is a prerequisite for attracting the kind of direct foreign investment from richer countries which has been basic in achieving economic take-off in other developing countries. As a result, much Western aid is now linked to 'conditionality' (See point 3 below).

https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_219_Impact_of_the_business_Environment_on_Output_and_Productivity_in_Africa.pdf

https://www.biznews.com/sa-investing/2017/06/07/bad-politics-broken-economy-south-africa/

12) Low GDP, and thus low tax revenue, also means a lack of funds for education and thus for training the next generation. Many qualified people (e.g. doctors and nurses) and skilled labor leave to go abroad where they can make more money (the brain drain). However, many send home remittances. Although remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa fell in 2020, they rose again in 2021.

https://www.google.com/search?q=remittences+to+africa+2021&rlz=1C1PRFI_enIT908IT908&ei=dmY5YuH_HJCysAeC6LqoAQ&ved=0ahUKEwjhktXdhdn2AhUQGewKHQK0DhUQ4dUDCA4&oq=remittences+to+africa+2021&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAwyBAgAEBM6CAgAEBYQHhATSgQIQRgBSgUIQBIBMUoECEYYAFCTBliYDGC0IGgBcAB4AIABUYgBmAGSAQEymAEAoAEBwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/why-the-skills-gap-remains-wider-in-africa/

https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/news/2018/brain-drain-bane-africas-potential

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/76171/1/Africa%20at%20LSE%20%E2%80%93%20How%20severe%20is%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Brain%20Drain_.pdf

13) Education - Of all regions, sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of education exclusion. Over one-fifth of children between the ages of about 6 and 11 are out of school, followed by one-third of youth between the ages of about 12 and 14. According to UIS data, almost 60% of youth between the ages of about 15 and 17 are not in school.

http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/education-africa

Literacy rates remain low (about 70%) and access to basic educational services may be limited due to poverty, health issues, the lack of physical and economic resources, transport and distance to schools, interruption of services e.g. closed schools which should be open, doctors who are largely unavailable. Covid-19 worsened the situation.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/26/impact-covid-19-childrens-education-africa

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/african-countries-push-for-higher-literacy/1618099#:~:text=Literacy%20rates%20in%20African%20countries,capital%2C%20Addis%20Ababa%20last%20May.

https://www.habitatforhumanity.org.uk/blog/2017/04/poverty-and-education-east-africa/

14) There is the constant danger of humanitarian crises as many populations live at a subsistence level, with poor farming techniques and without food security. They are, therefore, at risk from natural disasters (drought, famine, desertification) and these may intensify with climate change. There is rapid population growth in many areas e.g. DRC, Ethiopia (32 million in 1975, 65 million in 2000 and an estimated 89 million in 2020), Sudan –this increases the risk of future starvation, malnutrition and the pressure on food and water resources (especially in the Horn of Africa). The total population of Africa today is estimated by the UN at 1.39 billion. This is predicted to rise to between 2 and 2.5 billion by 2050.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#World_population_in_2050

15) Terrorism – the situation that led to the January 2013 French-OAU intervention in Mali has focused the international community’s attention on the spread of radical Islamist groups in Africa and particularly in and spreading from the Sahel region.

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/sahel-20-years-war-terror-has-created-more-and-stronger-enemies-31617

https://idsa.in/idsacomments/rise-of-terrorism-in-africa_rberi_130417

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/map-africa-militant-islamic-groups-april-2017/

https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/sahel-climate-conflicts-when-fighting-climate-change-fuels-terrorism

https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14245.doc.htm

The threats include Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, ISIS and its affiliated group Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, Libya and northern Mali, Ansar Dine and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in northern Mali and Niger) and Al-Shabaab in Somalia and the need to work out an effective response remains a challenge.

Operation Barkhane is an anti-insurgent operation started on August 1, 2014 which is led by the French military against Islamist groups in Africa's Sahel region. It consists of a roughly 5,000-strong French force, which is permanently headquartered in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad. However, it formally ended in November 2022..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barkhane#:~:text=Operation%20Barkhane%20is%20an%20ongoing,Djamena%2C%20the%20capital%20of%20Chad.

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/providing-security-sahel-traffic-jam-military-interventions-23852

https://www.csis.org/analysis/end-operation-barkhane-and-future-counterterrorism-mali

16) Migration – Poverty, environmental changes, the threat from terrorism, armed gangs, faction fighting, ethnic or religious persecution, dictatorial regimes, or other humanitarian crises due to natural disasters such as famine, drought, desertification and epidemic diseases also lead to growing numbers of internally displaced persons and refugees. Other areas of the country concerned and neighboring countries may be unable to provide these people with even basic living conditions. This is also apparent with regard to the ongoing migration from rural areas to cities resulting from any of the factors listed above or from the simple hope to improve one’s living conditions. As mentioned in point 12 among the literate and qualified the attraction of better living standards in a wealthier developing country or in the developed world produces a gradual brain-drain, depriving Africa of, for example, nurses, doctors and other skilled workers. This may frustrate the work of aid agencies or government programs that financed their training.

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/africa-migration-report-challenging-narrative

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/africa-migration-report.pdf

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/15/europe-migrant-tide-tragedy-africa

17) Africa and climate change, and climate change as a driver of migration, 'climate refugees'

https://350africa.org/8-ways-climate-change-is-already-affecting-africa/

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa

https://www.unenvironment.org/regions/africa/regional-initiatives/responding-climate-change

https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_climate_driven_migration_in_africa

file:///D:/Downloads/5866.pdf

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2019/09/20/africas-climate-crisis-conflict-and-migration-challenges/

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-climate-crisis-migration-and-refugees/

What can the international community do?

First, go back to the links at the start and look at what the EU and Italy are doing or plan to do.

1) There are lots of aid programs, but there is a need to avoid duplication, waste and also a need for long-term projects for sustainable development as well as for greater and better cooperation and coordination between aid organizations.

2) China is now Africa's largest single trading partner, and one of its biggest investors

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/eu-key-partnership-africa-factsheet_en.pdf

https://www.theafricareport.com/57044/china-africa-top-10-issues-going-into-2021/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/04/16/competing-in-africa-china-the-european-union-and-the-united-states/

https://unctad.org/news/investment-flows-africa-set-drop-25-40-2020#:~:text=On%20the%20basis%20of%20FDI,to%20profit%20repatriation%20and%20divestment.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/603509/EXPO_BRI(2020)603509_EN.pdf

https://www.theafricareport.com/34293/eu-is-one-of-africas-largest-trading-partners/

Chinese investment has been aimed at obtaining supplies of raw materials for the present and future (e.g. oil and metal ores) but that pattern may now be changing. Often a Chinese company brings its own Chinese labor, so Chinese investment is not always a big boost for jobs for the local population, but it has provided steady demand for Africa’s products and the Chinese company builds infrastructure like roads and this remains after the Chinese leave and can be used for other things.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/081315/3-reasons-why-chinese-invest-africa.asp

https://www.ft.com/content/9f5736d8-14e1-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

https://www.bruegel.org/2019/07/chinas-investment-in-africa-what-the-data-really-says-and-the-implications-for-europe/

3) Western aid has generally been linked to conditions of better governance, more respect for human rights and free and fair elections. Chinese investment so far has not been, except where China has paid for raw materials with finished goods, thus avoiding money payments to corrupt officials. On the whole, however, many commentators (and NGOs) argue that China has been willing to do business with repressive regimes and pay large bribes where necessary.

The new EU-Africa Strategy (See the links to ‘Towards a comprehensive strategy with Africa’and The Africa-EU Partnership at the top of this post)

https://africa-eu-partnership.org/en

and the idea of working with African governments and societies towards ‘demand-driven funding providing African solutions to African problems’ may be the EU’s best response to China’s growing presence in Africa.

4) With the recession due to Covid-19, despite pledges, some aid funding from developed countries was frozen or fell.

5) Debt cancellation to foreign governments – this has been substantial but does not cover all African debt e.g. debt to banks rather than to government agencies.

6) African countries need to expand and diversify their economies (especially as regards manufacturing) so they are no longer dependent on aid. They need to create a better business environment for foreign and African businesses.

7) Import barriers in rich countries (e.g. the EU) against African goods need to be reduced or abolished. The last Doha round tried to make progress on this point but success has been limited.

8) Micro-credit could be a way to help people set up small business activities in Africa.

Are things changing?

However, things may be changing. The mobile phone revolution, with low-cost phones and services, has allowed the information and communications sectors in sub-Saharan Africa to grow rapidly (in Kenya they represent 5% of GDP). The World Bank points out that today while some development trends are becoming more positive in various areas of sub-Saharan Africa serious challenges remain.

Below is the Overview from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview#1

updated to 1st Deceber 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa, home to more than 1 billion people, half of whom will be under 25 years old by 2050, is a diverse continent offering human and natural resources that have the potential to yield inclusive growth and eradicate poverty in the region. With the world’s largest free trade area and a 1.2 billion-person market, the continent is creating an entirely new development path, harnessing the potential of its resources and people.

The region is composed of low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income countries, 22 of which are fragile or conflict-affected. Africa also has 13 small states, characterized by a small population, limited human capital, and a confined land area.

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is set to decelerate from 4.1% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022, as a result of a slowdown in global growth, rising inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, adverse weather conditions, a tightening in global financial conditions, and the rising risk of debt distress. These trends compromise poverty reduction, already set back by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rising inflation is weighing on economic activity in SSA by depressing both business investments and household consumption. As of July 2022, 29 of 33 countries in SSA with available information had inflation rates over 5% while 17 countries had double-digit inflation.

In SSA, the high pass-through of food and fuel prices to consumer prices has caused inflation to soar to record highs in many countries, breaching the ceiling of central bank targets in most countries which have them. The vast majority of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa is affected by these high food prices as they allocate over 40% of total spending on food.

These economic challenges come at a time when countries’ ability to support growth and protect poor households is severely constrained. The fiscal deficit of the region expanded during the pandemic to 5.6% of GDP in 2020 (from 3.0% of GDP in 2019). In 2022, the deficit amounts to 4.8% of GDP due to consolidation efforts.

Debt is projected to stay elevated at 59.5% of GDP in 2022 in SSA. Eight out of 38 IDA-eligible countries in the region are in debt distress, and 14 are in high risk of joining them. African governments spent 16.5% of their revenues servicing external debt in 2021, up from less than 5% in 2010. Looking ahead, growth in SSA is projected to bounce back to 3.5% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024. Excluding South Africa and Angola, the Eastern and Southern African subregion is expected to grow to 4.5% next year and 5.0% in 2024. In South Africa, the economy slowed to 0.2 % year-on-year in 2022Q2, from 2.7% in the previous quarter The economy is projected to grow by 1.9% this year, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point relative to early projections in April. The Angolan economy is one of the major beneficiaries of favorable terms of trade which translate into real growth of 3.1% in 2022, from 0.8% the previous year. Kenya is set to grow 5.0% in 2023 (down from 5.5%) and back up to 5.3% in 2024.

Excluding Nigeria, the Western and Central Africa subregion is projected to grow at 5.0% in 2023 (up from 4.2%), and growth will firm in 2024 (5.6%). Real GDP growth in Nigeria is expected to slow from 3.6% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022 as economic growth in the country continues to suffer from an underperforming oil sector. WAEMU countries are set to recover in 2023 from the slowdown in 2022 (4.9%), up to 6.4%, and firming further in 2024 to 7.0%. Growth in Côte d’Ivoire is projected to bounce back from 5.7% in 2022 to 6.8%. After slowing to 4.8% in 2022, growth in Senegal is projected to jump to 8.0% in 2023 and firm to 10.5% in 2024. In Cameroon, the economy will maintain its steady post-pandemic growth in 2023 (4.3%) and 2024 (4.6%), buoyed by investment and private consumption.

The looming threat of stagnation worldwide amid a landscape of multiple new and covariate shocks emphasizes the need for African policymakers to implement policies that accelerate structural transformation through productivity-enhancing growth and creating more and better jobs. Boosting agricultural productivity is essential to drive a growth-enhancing structural transformation process. Amid soaring food prices and supply constraints, policy makers need avoid making previous policy mistakes (bans or tariffs/taxes on exports and imports), and ensure international trade flows.

Africa and the SDGs – you may want to look at the situation in Africa in terms of progress and lack of progress on the SDGs

https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/august-2021/how-covid-19-has-impacted-sdgs-africa

https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/TCND/ARFSD2021/Presentations/SDG%201%20%E2%80%93%20No%20Poverty%20-%20UNDP%20AFRICA.pdf

https://www.sdgindex.org/reports/2020-africa-sdg-index-and-dashboards-report/

https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/mdgs-sdgs-where-does-africa-stand-13942

https://www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/home/sustainable-development-goals/goal-1-no-poverty.html

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/SDG-2-Africa-Progress-Scorecard_tbl3_344421718

Country profiles

https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/score/country-profiles

https://african.business/2022/01/trade-investment/economic-outlook-2022-africa-faces-rickety-rebound/

https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/tanzania-country-profiles-2021

https://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index/en/?no_cache=1&iso3=NGA

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14112449

https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/I9761EN/

https://www.fao.org/3/I9761EN/i9761en.pdf

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insights/five-countries-investors-watch-2022-african

Older background material

As regards the UN Millennium Development Goals according to the 2015 Africa MDG report Africa, the results achieved were mixed:

“having made encouraging progress on the MDGs, African countries have the opportunity to use the newly launched Sustainable Development Goals to tackle remaining challenges and achieve a development breakthrough.
Much more work lies ahead to ensure living standards improve for all African women and men. While economic growth has been relatively strong, it has not been rapid or inclusive enough to create jobs. Similarly, many countries have managed to achieve access to primary schooling however considerable issues of quality and equity need to be addressed.
Poor implementation mechanisms and excessive reliance on development aid undermined the economic sustainability of several MDG interventions, the report adds. Official development assistance to Africa is projected to remain low over the period 2015-2018, at an average of around US$47 billion annually”
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/mdg/mdg-reports/africa-collection.html
Africa and the SDGs

http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2014/sustainable-development-goals-new-targets-hold-promise-africa

While poverty in Africa has declined (as a percentage), the absolute number of poor has increased

http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report

Despite some successes, serious development challenges remain in Africa, where governance and transparency remain weak.

https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/africa_corruption_is_a_big_issue_in_2016_african_elections

Although the number of women dying during pregnancy and childbirth has fallen dramatically worldwide in the last 15 years, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for two out of every three of such deaths in the world in 2015.

http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-11-12-deaths-of-women-from-pregnancy-related-causes-drops-sharply-in-25-years-in-africa-by-45

HIV infections are stabilizing but Sub-Saharan Africa remains the area worst-hit with nearly 25 million people living with HIV/AIDS.

http://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/sub-saharan-africa/overview

https://www.aids.gov/hiv-aids-basics/hiv-aids-101/global-statistics/

As regards primary school enrollment real progress was made. More students than ever were in school in 2015 but still not all, and one out of three was likely to leave school before completion. Fewer girls are enrolled than boys.

http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2015/more-students-school-still-not-all

The human and economic cost of the Ebola outbreak is discussed below.

http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/03/12/west-african-economies-feeling-ripple-effects-of-ebola-says-un.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa

Africa and Economic Development

Compared with traditional, negative views of Africa’s economic stagnation a very different interpretation of the trends in Africa began to emerge during the first decade of this century.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1326374900917/GEP12a_SSA_Regional_Annex.pdf

An interesting evaluation of the situation was offered by E. Miguel of Berkeley University, California, in ‘Africa Unleashed’, reviewed in Foreign Affairs Nov/Dec 2011. http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf

or http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
See also: http://www.amethisfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Africa-the-worlds-next-growth-frontier.pdf
Here is an extract in which Miguel explains his position:
“Although the 1990s were a disaster for sub-Saharan Africa (living standards improved in Asia while those in Africa got worse in a context of dictatorships, civil wars, failed states, the HIV/AIDS epidemic and reduced life expectancy as outlined above) prospects have changed over the last decade. In a significant number of states growth rates are now positive (not as high as those in Asia but encouraging), a majority of countries have held multiparty elections, and civic and media freedom has grown. So it is a stereotype to see the whole of Africa as underdeveloped. He argues that this is the result of 5 factors:
Expanding democratization (since the mid-1990s with the end of the Cold-War superpower tensions that distorted Africa’s development) has opened up government and increased accountability and improved governance (e.g. army officers in the Democratic Republic of Congo are now being put on trial). The voting public has higher expectations regarding what it wants from government in terms of the economy and social services.
Better economic policies have limited tax and regulatory problems that hurt both households and investors (Tanzania boosted primary school enrollment by abolishing school fees in 2000).
New technologies (especially cell phones) have increased Africa’s access to markets.
Debt reduction has freed resources for education and health care. The rapid expansion of schooling in the 1970s and 1980s is now producing results. Literacy which was 32% in Kenya in 1970 is around 90% today. Education empowers the disadvantaged, may help to promote pro-democratic and secular ideas, but definitely means that people read more, are generally better-informed, have higher expectations of government and are therefore more critical of it. women also seem to be more assertive today
Better schooling has produced both more and improved ‘human capital’, a better educated younger generation (young ‘cheetahs’ not old ‘hippos’ from the anti-colonial days) which is now producing new leaders with new energy who are open to new ideas and at ease with new technologies. Education has also improved productivity
Probably the most important factor is democratization since it seems to have a clear statistical link with economic growth. Authoritarian regimes have largely been failures economically, while 13 out of the 17 countries identified as emerging economies by Miguel have become democracies since the 1990s. In contrast democratic reform has been slow in oil-rich economies.
In the economic field Africa needs to boost investment in manufacturing and basic service industries since it has low labor costs compared with Asia where these costs are rising.”
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~emiguel/pdfs/FA_oct2011.pdf
(For another fairly positive interpretation of current trends see ‘Africa’s Economic Boom’ by Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler in Foreign Affairs May/June 2013)
http://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/13304351/fa-mayjune2013-devarajan-fengler-africa
However, how much justification there is for Miguel’s view of current trends in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole remains debatable. The World Bank’s cautious optimism in 2014 was based on the recognition that economic growth and development in much of the area was starting from very low GDP (PPP) per capita levels compared with the rest of the world and is very uneven, so figures may be misleading. No doubt we should recognize that there is a huge range of diversity, from failed or very poor states to other states which are stable, have developed a good business environment and now have generally positive economic and social indicators. Yet when around 43% of the population still live in poverty, this is still an enormous, deep-rooted problem, even in those countries growing fastest, and the situation in many areas remains at best precarious. Much of Africa still faces grinding and widespread poverty, e.g. see the statistics relating to hunger and malnutrition in Africa contained here:
http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm
There has been no real widespread transformation yet from low-productivity agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and service. Moreover, per capita incomes are low, but production and, strangely, labor costs remain high, the consequence of politically motivated market distortions and corruption. Road transport costs are high, infrastructure is poor or badly maintained (leaky water pipes, power cuts). Some experts argue that public companies charge unrealistic prices (for political reasons) and this leads to little investment in the infrastructure and poor and worsening services. Africa needs to improve its human capital rapidly in order to develop but this is problematic when funds for education and health are often stolen or misused by political elites.
See also: http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SSA