If you look at the opening articles, and then the information and questions, that should give you an overview of current developments and be enough for an essay (up to 'Earlier material...').
Latest BRICS
summit declaration
http://brics2022.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hywj/ODS/202207/t20220705_10715631.html
Next BRICS summit
An alternative
world order?
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-vows-to-reroute-russian-exports-to-brics-nations/a-62223602
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/vladimir-putin-to-address-brics-russia-invasion-of-ukraine.html
Economic
Strength
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/17/intra-brics-2022-trade/
And GDP
growth figures for 2022-4 are here, providing a good comparison between the
BRICS and the developed economies:
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023
the BRICS and expansion?
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/02/11/brics-reaching-out-to-peaks-the-next-wave-of-expansion/
https://impakter.com/brics-expansion-five-new-members-in-2023/
How they
vote at the UN
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
Influence of
Russia and China in Africa
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/un-vote-russia-invasion-shows-changing-africa
Human rights
https://amnesty.org.za/south-africa-china-put-human-rights-at-the-forefront-of-brics-leaders-summit/
https://www.gov.za/speeches/employment-and-labour-worker-rights-brics-summit-21-feb-2023-0000
BRICS and
economic development
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
The existing
world order
The Bretton
Woods Conference of 1944 created the basis for a cooperative global economic system
to stabilize the world economy, a system which soon included the United States,
Canada, Western European countries, Japan and Australia and later many other
states (see the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which was created
later in the early 1990s). It expanded
to include Eastern European members of the former Communist bloc after the end
of the Cold War and the economic change of direction in China. In parallel, the
United Nations, created in 1945, was, and is, a second attempt at the Wilsonian
vision of a rule-based international political order able to prevent or rapidly
resolve international conflicts of the kind that led to the two world wars. The UN is also committed to the protection and promotion of
human rights.
Some
questions to consider:
Do the BRICS
countries intend to challenge the existing world order?
Do the BRICS intend to overthrow,
subvert or take control of this economic/political order?
Or do they want to create a parallel
alternative to it or simply to play a greater role within it?
Do they see the world order as too
dominated by the US, the dollar as the main exchange currency, and its
political or military allies?
Do they want a more multi-polar system?
A less Western-values-based order? Would this legitimize autocracy? Or a system
where state sovereignty is paramount?
Do they share objectives as a group or
does each of them have its own goals, only cooperating when it is to its advantage?
Would expanding
it to include other resource rich countries give them the means to steer the
international order? Does the group represent a threat to human rights? What do
the BRICS mean by human rights?
What evidence can you offer in responding to these questions?
Earlier
material relating to the BRICS, Ukraine and the West – different views
https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/why-the-brics-grouping-is-here-to-stay/
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.gfmag.com/topics/blogs/ukraine-war-hits-brics
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/25/russia-brics-silence-on-ukraine/
http://globalsherpa.org/bric-countries-brics/
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbxw/202204/t20220414_10667990.html
China and
Russia https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/should-china-mediate-russia-ukraine-war-33995
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR-EFqDh5Oc
South Africa
and Russia https://theconversation.com/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-south-africa-blew-its-chance-as-a-credible-mediator-181101
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safricas-ramaphosa-blames-nato-russias-war-ukraine-2022-03-17/
India and Russia
https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/why-india-has-been-soft-on-russia-over-ukraine/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60552273
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/after-buying-russias-discounted-oil-india-looks-to-buy-its-coal.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joleQTFv0T8
Brazil and
Russia
Some good
summaries, information and background about the group:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/twenty-years-brics
https://www.statista.com/topics/1393/bric-countries/#topicHeader__wrapper
https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/brazilian-elections-and-future-brics-21347
https://www.ispionline.it/it/tag/brics
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/dopo-lucraina-una-nuova-bretton-woods-monetaria-34195
https://english.news.cn/20220414/d55649c109554d0589561068817ffc38/c.html
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bric-countries
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/covid-19-exposes-deficiencies-of-brics/ https://www.dw.com/en/have-the-brics-hit-a-wall/a-51182058
http://time.com/4923837/brics-summit-xiamen-mixed-fortunes/
https://www.euronews.com/2019/11/13/what-s-brics-for-and-does-it-still-make-sense-euronews-answers
https://www.oliverstuenkel.com/2018/07/29/johannesburg-declaration-analysis/
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/brics
The BRICS
is an international political association of leading emerging economies,
arising out of the inclusion of South Africa
in the BRIC group in 2010. As of 2022,
its five members are Brazil,
Russia,
India, China and South Africa.
With the (partial) exception of Russia, the BRICS are all developing or newly
industrialized countries (often called
‘emerging markets’ or ‘emerging economies’, although at this point China, for example,
has clearly emerged!) with very high growth rates between the end of the 1990s and
2010. They have large and till recently fast-growing economies and significant
influence on regional and global affairs. The five BRICS countries represent 26.7
% of the world’s land area. As of 2021 they represented 40% of its population (3.23
billion, but mainly China and India)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09749101211067096
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
They
accounted for 24 per cent of nominal global gross domestic product and 16 per
cent of global trade (based on World Bank data (2019)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13600818.2022.2033191
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255800/WHO-CCU-17.05-eng.pdf;sequence=1
and
were estimated to provide 45% of its workforce in 2017. In 2015 they also
accounted for around 55% of the output of emerging and developing economies. They are members of the G20,The
combined GDP of BRICS countries as a percentage of global
GDP almost tripled from 7.9% in 1990 to 22.3% in 2015, now 24%.
The BRICS accounted,
on average, for 56% of the growth of global GNP (at 2005 $PPP) during 2008-17.
However intra-BRICS trade flows are considered low at only 10.6% of the total
foreign trade of these countries (2017).
https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1594938
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
Their
economies are said to be complementary rather than just similar, since China
and India are industrial and service producers, while Russia and Brazil are
major energy and raw materials suppliers. Russia is also a major grain
exporter. However, economic complementarity is limited by the low level of intra-BRICS
trade mentioned above. Clearly their percentage of global GDP is likely to
continue to grow in the long term, although other developing countries may
achieve even faster growth rates. The BRICS group may expand its membership in
response to this.
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good)
As we have
seen, given their enormous populations the BRICS have relatively low average
per capita income (particularly India) with large numbers of people still living
in poverty.
According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and favorable
demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid pace from
2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were printing
cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their sluggish
economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, expanded
by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/statistics
However, the
BRICS were eventually hit by the economic crisis of 2008 as it reduced demand
in developed economies. GDP growth rates for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
(with the Covid-19 pandemic) and 2021, 2022 forecast according to the IMF were:
Brazil -3.8%, -3.4%, 0.7%, 1.4%, 1.1%, -4.1%, 5.2%, 1.5%
Russia -2.8%, -0.2%, 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, -3.0%, 4.7%. 2.9% (before the war in Ukraine)
India 8.0%, 7.1%,
6.7%, 7.3%, 4.2%, -7.3%, 9.5%, 8.5%
China 6.9%,
6.7%, 6.8%, 6.6%, 6.1%, 2.3%, 8.0%, 5.6%
South Africa 1.3%,
0.3%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7%, -6.5%, 5.0%, 2.2%
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
And the figures
for 2022-4 are here and this provides a a good comparison of the BRICS and developed countries:
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023
So, as of March
2023, China’s growth has cooled significantly from the double digits rates of previous
decades but continues to be strong. India was doing well until the pandemic and
has recovered and is growing strongly. By comparison South Africa is growing at
only a modest rate. Russia and Brazil were in serious difficulty and went through
recession even before the pandemic, due to falling oil and commodity prices and
inflation (15.8% in Russia in August 2015, and 5.2% in January 2021, and 9.5% in
Brazil in August 2015, and 4.5% in December 2020. Interest rates in Russia stood
at 7.5% in September 2018 and 4.25% in December 2020, and 6.5% in Brazil in
September 2018 and 2% in December 2020. Russia is still struggling (2023) and facing
further sanctions from the US and the EU and other countries as a result of the
Ukraine war. Soaring oil and prices are good for Russia (and potentially bad
for China) although the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine are threatening
Russia’s economic stability. High commodity prices and for food and raw
materials should benefit Brazil’s exports but, together with high fuel prices,
will increase pressure on the poor in the BRICS countries (e.g. in India). Brazil’s
economy registered good GDP recovery and growth in 2022 but only modest GDP growth
is forecast for 2023 and2024.
For the
BRICS, with the exception of China and India, this is all in contrast to
previous very strong performance between 1995 and 2010.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate
However, according to various sources,
prospects (if we exclude events like the war in Ukraine) for the BRICS’ future
long-term growth, appear good and, compared with many of the most developed
economies, two of the BRICS, China and India are still doing very well. (We
will need to see if significant long-term gaps in growth rates open up between
the BRICS members.) Moreover, if their economies slowed down simply as a result
of the world recession in 2008 and pandemic in 2020-1 and as the global economy
starts to recover, their growth rates may return to previous levels. On the
other hand, some experts argue that they may face real challenges relating to
structural problems within their domestic economies and political systems. See:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview#1
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/brazil-market-challenges
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
We should also
note that some other developing economies may out-perform the BRICS in terms of
rapid GDP growth over the next decade. There is the ‘N 11’ group, the ‘Next Eleven’,
Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam according
to Goldman Sachs. However, they too now
face serious economic problems.
There are also the TIMPS, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines,
a group which in 2010 was beating the BRICS by almost every economic measure. There
are also the MINTs, an acronym coined for a group of four countries—Mexico,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. Will such countries be invited to join the BRICS
group at some point or are they in competition with the group’s members? Will
they really be able to sustain GDP growth? The BRICS Plus initiative seems to
suggest that the BRICS group could one day expand
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven
And the MINT
countries
https://guides.loc.gov/mexico-indonesia-nigeria-turkey
And CIVETS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS
and MIST
At all
events, the BRICS group is here to stay and clearly represents a growing
movement towards a more multipolar world economic order and since the BRICS
summit in New Delhi in 2012 various goals have been outlined:
The reform of global economic governance
– They want to move forward with the ongoing revision
of the quota mechanism for governance of the IMF, revision of voting rights in
the World Bank, and revision of global economic governance in general in order
to reflect the growing economic weight of developing countries and emerging markets.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2016/eng/quota.htm
https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/14/12/21/IMF-Quotas
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789811202308_0015
Trade and Development – They
would welcome a new global reserve currency as a reliable alternative to the dollar
and to achieve greater independence from the dollar. This might even be a cryptocurrency:
http://theduran.com/brics-talks-create-crypto-currency-another-blow-us-dollar/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-07/anti-dollar-axis
They want to
boost intra-BRICS trade using their own currencies (instead of dollars) in
order to compensate for any drop in demand due to a global future recession or
falling US/EU demand (and protect their national currencies from financial
crises or financial sanctions), and to link up their stock markets.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-calls-integrating-brics-payment-systems-2022-04-09/
but https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
Some BRICS
history
In 2012,
they examined the idea of setting up a new development bank, whose aims would include
funding development and major infrastructure projects initially in BRICS countries,
but later in developing and least developed countries
too; lending, in the long term, during global financial crises such as the Eurozone crisis;
and issuing convertible debt,
which could be bought by the central banks of all the member states and hence
act as a means of risk-sharing.
Foreign policy line
– In 2012 at the New Delhi summit, then President of
China Hu Jintao
described the BRICS countries as defenders and promoters of
developing countries and a force for world peace. At the summit the BRICS
criticized the West’s pressure on Iran and its attempts to convince other
countries to restrict their trade with Iran, and said that dialogue was the best
way to resolve the nuclear question. The group took a similar position on
Syria, against military intervention, and in general emphasized the dangers of
a war in the Middle East and the fact that it would immediately lead to a rise
in oil prices. The deal with Iran was welcomed by the BRICS but Russia itself
moved to intervene in Syria.
http://www.cfr.org/brazil/brics-summit-delhi-declaration/p27805
At the BRICS
summit in Durban in March 2013, further progress was made with the approval of
the plans to create the development bank. Russia, Brazil and India agreed to contribute
$18 billion to the BRICS currency reserve pool, China $41 billion and South
Africa $5 billion.)
At the July 2014 sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil the group signed a document to create the $100 billion funded New Development Bank (NDB) and a reserve currency pool worth an additional $100 billion to help make currency transaction more diversified, stable and predictable and to act as “a kind of mini-IMF”. The NDB opened in July 2015. The NDB’s headquarters are in Shanghai, the institution's first president is from India, the bank's first regional office is in Johannesburg, the inaugural chairman of the board of governors is from Russia and the first chairman of the board of directors was from Brazil. The presidency, with a term of five years, will rotate among the members of the BRICS. However, the BRICS’ NDB may be overshadowed by the other new Chinese-based multilateral lender, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is headquartered in Beijing. China is its biggest shareholder with about 30%, according to the legal framework signed by 50 founding member countries. It opened for business on 16 January 2016. Major European and Asian economies, including Germany, Italy, Britain, France, Russia, Australia, and South Korea have joined the AIIB, but the US and Japan, two of the world’s largest economies, have declined to do so. Some Chinese leaders have also talked of the need to prepare for a 'de-Americanized' world economy. However, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei played down the competitive aspect (2015). And prospects for cooperation between the banks seem good
https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/20170401_001.html
The new banks intend to offer an alternative to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank and can be seen not as competition to the existing system but as complementary and a way for China to reinvest productively some of its vast $3.408 trillion foreign-exchange reserves (August 2021). See China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ below.
In
2017 the NDB moved ahead with 4 projects in China,
Russia and India with loans totaling more than $1.4bn. The scope of the NDB’s activities includes renewable
energy, information technology, energy conservation, flood control, water
quality and developing the rural drinking water supply. Going forward, another
$30bn in loans, for a total of 15 projects by the end of 2017 and up to 50 by 2021
was announced.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/brics-new-development-bank-four-sustainability/ http://ndbbrics.org/
https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NDB-Strategy.pdf
https://www.ndb.int/about-us/essence/our-work/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ft.com/content/cc7c7ee6-918b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0
http://sd.iisd.org/news/new-development-bank-opens-for-business/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/asian-infrastructure-inve_b_7717540.html
The
2015 BRICS summit was held in Ufa in
Russia. The summit coincided with the entry into force of constituting agreements
of the New Development Bank and the BRICS Contingent
Reserve Arrangement, a
framework for the provision of support through liquidity and precautionary
instruments in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments
pressures.
The
2016 BRICS summit was held from 15
to 16 October 2016 in Goa, India. It condemned terrorism, recognized the
difficulties for the group created by the global recession and underlined the
importance of cooperation with and work within traditional global institutions
like the WTO.
There
was some controversy over the issue of terrorism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8th_BRICS_summit#Controversy
The 2017 BRICS summit in Xiamen, China helped to reduce tensions between China
and India over the Doklam border
issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_China%E2%80%93India_border_standoff
The summit approved a three-year action plan (2017-2020)
for cooperation innovation and agreed to promote
the development of BRICS Local Currency Bond Markets and jointly establish a
BRICS Local Currency Bond Fund, as a means of contribution to the capital
sustainability of financing in BRICS. The BRICS grouping continued to push for
cautious reform of global order but in its final declaration made it clear that
it did not wish to weaken the institutions of the international order and reaffirmed
the BRICS' commitment to the UN and the G20, globalization, sustainable development
and the fight against climate change.
http://www.postwesternworld.com/2017/09/07/leaders-declaration-analysis/
The 2018 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa released
this declaration https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/30190/10th_BRICS_Summit_Johannesburg_Declaration
and Chinese President Xi Jinping
said:
“It is
important that we continue to pursue innovation-driven development and build
the BRICS Partnership on New Industrial Revolution (PartNIR) to strengthen coordination on macroeconomic policies,
find more complementarities in our development strategies, and reinforce the
competitiveness of the BRICS countries, emerging market economies and
developing countries.”
http://www.atimes.com/article/how-brics-plus-clashes-with-the-us-economic-war-on-iran/
He also
discussed the BRICS Plus initiative.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/28/c_137352893.htm
The 2019 BRICS summit was held at the Itamaraty Palace
in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and saw
members reaffirm their commitment to cooperation on a range of topics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/11th_BRICS_summit
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/15/c_138555948.htm
The 2020 BRICS
summit was originally scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg from
July 21 to 23, 2020 but was changed to a video conference held on November
17 due to the outbreak of the global COVID-19
pandemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_BRICS_summit
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/17/c_139523088.htm
The 2021 BRICS
summit was held in New Delhi, India on 9 September.
Other Points
The border
dispute between India and China continued.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
China’s
‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
Will
China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ be an opportunity for the BRICS to invest
and work together, or a way for China to dominate its neighbours and partners?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
So do the
BRICS represent a fundamental change in the world order either today, or in the
near future or in the long term?
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/jim-oneill/will-brics-ever-grow
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
Few doubt
that the influence of these countries will continue to grow. After all, as emerging
economies, their growth rates have often been much higher than those that the
developed economies have averaged over the last 20 years and although all of
them have faced social and economic difficulties with the Covid-19 pandemic and
domestic challenges, their prospects for the long-term future remain good. So
the real question is whether Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa form
a coherent group with a coherent set of interests which are clearly opposed to
those of the traditional ‘West’ or not. In other words, are all of these
countries really outside the ‘West’ if we do not restrict the meaning of the
term ‘West’ to a synonym for NATO or fully developed economies? Are they a challenge
to the West’s leadership of the existing international order, or even to the
order itself, or will all or some of these countries simply become a more integral
part of it?
Much of what
the BRICS aim to do with regard to trade and development, as outlined above,
should simply be welcomed by the West and the rest of the international
community in the UN. Many Western NGOs and UN agencies have been working
towards these development goals for decades, but with limited resources and limited
success. A new reserve currency alongside the dollar would make the
international financial system more stable and provide a further global lender
of last resort, while the creation and growth of the New Development Bank
should provide a way for a country like China to reinvest its surplus in various
local and global projects. How realistic all this is in the short term is, however,
less clear given some of the structural weaknesses of their economies and some
fears about China's growing total debt.
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html
Population trends within the BRICS also differ significantly. The population of China continues to grow, but continues to slow (0.47% in 2018, 0.43% in 2019, 0.30 in 2020) and is predicted to reach 1.45 billion in 2030 and then to go into decline with an already aging population. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-s-population-will-peak-at-1-45-billion-around-2030-says-government/story-RO1snkgzMEUkmK8VR9HssO.html
India’s population is youthful and expanding at 1.0% in2020 annually and will probably overtake China as the world’s most heavily populated state by 2024.
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/UN-says-Indias-population-will-overtake-China-in-seven-years-41088.html Brazil’s population growth rate was also high in previous years but fell to 0.80% in 2013 and remained there, 0.79% in 2018, 0.73% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020.
Meanwhile the population in South Africa grew by I.37% in 2018, 1.33% in 2019 and 1.30% in 2019.
Since
2015 population growth in the Russian Federation has been in decline and is now
in negative figures, -0.01% in 2018 and -0.05% in 2019, -0.2% in 2020 (see
notes below#). These trends impact GDP growth rates and social welfare costs in
the future, making forecasts difficult to make and suggesting growing
divergence among the members of the group.
Commentators
also point out that there are already real differences and potential divisions
and weaknesses among the group’s members which will inevitably affect the
coherence and effectiveness of the group in responding to any particular issue,
and the ultimate objectives of each of its members. Here are a few of them:
Russia and
China are permanent members of the UNSC with veto power. They initially did not
seem in a hurry to support India, Brazil and South Africa with more than words
in any bid to obtain permanent seats on the Council and do not support attempts
to reform the SC by eliminating or reducing the scope of the veto power.
https://www.rt.com/news/315510-un-security-council-reform/
The Durban
Declaration included this sentence:
“In this regard, China and Russia
reiterate the importance they attach to the status of Brazil, India and South
Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater
role in the UN.”
This seemed
to stop short of unconditional support for seats on the UNSC for Brazil and India,
but in August 2015 Russia finally expressed clear support for permanent seats
for Brazil and India:
The BRICS Xiamen summit declaration
in 2017 stated that "China and Russia reiterate the importance they attach
to the status and role of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs
and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN."
Russia and China do not
automatically support the extension of the veto to India and Brazil.
Would a permanent seat without a
veto now be acceptable to the G4?
https://www.firstpost.com/world/unsc-permanent-seat-india-and-other-g4-countries-ready-to-forgo-veto-for-now-if-granted-membership-3323572.html
However, while Russia now
clearly supports India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council,
China is more ambivalent since India's bid is linked to Japan's in the G4.
Moreover, Russia and China may continue to use
their position and their vetoes primarily to forward their own interests, as they
perceive them, rather than the interests of the BRICS or the interests of the
majority of developing nations in the General Assembly. For example, from the
start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 China and Russia were ready to block any
resolution on Syria by the SC (like that proposed by the Arab League in Feb.
2012 and approved by the UNGA by 137 votes to 12 with 17 abstentions, which
could have opened the door to outside intervention) or simply called for the
current regime to step down. In contrast, when Russia decided to launch its own
air strikes into Syria in September 2015, at the invitation of President Assad,
it is not clear if it first informed and coordinated its action with its BRICS
partners and sought approval from them. Russia has used its veto to block criticism
of the Assad regime or of its own intervention. Currently China
Supports Russia and the Assad regime
https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-plays-long-game-syria
India accepted Russia’s intervention but argues
that any long-term solution must be political. http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/heres-what-india-thinks-about-russian-air-strikes-in-syria/
China is, of
course, a one-party state with regional ambitions, perceived as a threat by several
of its democratic and non-democratic neighbors who have turned to the US for
support. Russia is, although formally a democracy, an authoritarian state and
one with substantial military power. By contrast, Brazil, India and South
Africa are all functioning (or dysfunctional!) democracies, with a variety of
problems relating to poverty, but sharing many ‘Western’ values. However,
Brazil’s former President, Jair Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian leader who
expressed admiration for Putin and was accused of trying to undermine democracy
in Brazil. In India Prime
Minister Narendra Modi is criticized for undermining India’s
democracy. At the same time India still has border disputes with China.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/indias-struggle-between-democracy-and-authoritarianism/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
and is also involved in the dispute over the status of Tibet (a ‘domestic’ Chinese issue for the Chinese, as is Taiwan). So while the BRICS appear to represent a calming force in international relations, in favor of conflict resolution through dialogue and against military intervention and regime change, something that the West, or at a least large section of Western public opinion, probably welcomes after the long, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is not clear that this respect for every nation’s sovereignty (and implicitly the right of a state to repress its own citizens with impunity) will be universally accepted and approved of by public opinion around the world, by all the members of the UNGA and by public opinion within the democratic BRICS themselves. Military intervention for humanitarian purposes remains a subject of heated debate within, as well as between countries, experts and ordinary people. Some argue that a situation like Syria requires international action. Others argue that the humanitarian costs of intervention may easily outweigh the gains. Given Russia's intervention in Syria it would have been an oversimplification to see this as a division between an aggressive NATO and a peaceful BRICS. Opinion in the West was always divided over the operations in Afghanistan, in Iraq and in Libya. After Russia's intervention in Syria, it is interesting to see the reaction of its BRICS partners and the level of cooperation between Russia and France (after the Nov. 2015 terrorist attack on Paris), the EU, the US and other regional powers like Turkey. The article below highlights the pragmatism that often seems to shape the foreign policy of each of the BRICS. https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id-moe/11354.pdf
Each of the BRICS also faces serious domestic challenges, mainly relating to the Covid-19 pandemic, widespread poverty, inequalities of wealth and corruption. At the same time there are rivalries between them and wide variation in their economic performance and political focus.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54476934
https://borgenproject.org/south-african-poverty-and-covid-19/
https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/is-brics-losing-its-shine-for-china/
And these challenges, together with growing
regional commitments by its members may take precedence over the BRICS'
aspirations to play a more global role in international relations as a group.
For example, Brazil in 2015 saw widespread protests by the poorest sections of
society, with people saying that they had not benefited from GDP growth, that
money had been wasted on the Olympics and World Cup and calling for the government
to do something about economic inequalities and widespread bribery and political
corruption. This scandal led to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in
2016, the arrest of former President Lula and contributed to the election of Jair
Bolsonaro as President in October 2018, a candidate
whose right-wing rhetoric proved divisive.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/07/crowds-in-sao-paulo-block-lula-from-handing-himself-in
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election
Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric may not have
helped Brazil in purchasing medical supplies and equipment need to deal with the
Covid-19 pandemic.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/bolsonaro-in-china-shop-spats-worsen-brazils-pandemic/1883204#
In 2022 political tensions in Brazil rose
again with the prospect of the coming presidential election this year.
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
One of South Africa’s main challenges, perhaps
the main one, is corruption
Meanwhile, many commentators argue that the change in the
world order is really a result simply of the rise of China (or at most China
and India) rather than the BRICS as a whole. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/11/23/commentary/world-commentary/brics-falls-chinas-sway/#.WolLNVrwZdg https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2017/09/20/india-not-china-is-now-central-to-the-future-of-the-brics/?sh=3ac814a75d1e
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/
However, the
BRICS seem to be able to vote with a fair degree of quiet unity at the UN (using
abstentions on votes on Ukraine, for example) and if they expand to include
other resource-rich developing counties will clearly gain in both economic and
political influence. The real question for the future is whether this will lend
more support to authoritarianism at the expense of democracy and human rights.
However, one
should note that the BRICS are not really like the old Communist bloc, which
defined itself by its opposition to the West and to capitalism. (Perhaps
politically it has so far been more similar to the old Non-Aligned Movement of
the Cold War period, of which India was a member – at least until Russia’s increasingly
proactive foreign policy). Economically, there is no clear division between the
‘West’ and the BRICS. In both groups we find a range of approaches to managing
the economy, those that adopt a more free-market approach, those that believe in
government supervision and those that believe in a welfare state – and varying
proportions of all three. Politically, as with the rest of the world, the BRICS
countries have their national interests and will no doubt seek to protect them,
but there is no basic ideological division between the West and the BRICS
regarding economics. (China is hardly recognizable today as a ‘Communist’ state
in terms of economic policy. China and Russia are authoritarian states but they
are also part of an international community based fairly solidly on Western
liberal free-market and democratic values that they do not wish to challenge
publicly (although they may violate them) and which shows no real signs of
losing its appeal to the majority of people around the world. Brazil, South Africa
and India are active supporters of this community’s values. As indicated
previously, Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian figure who aligned with Putin
but lost the latest election (2022) to former
president Lula da Silva. So the challenge represented by the BRICS is probably
best expressed in economic terms, developing economies are becoming less
dependent on developed economies rather than a situation arising that will necessarily
lead to a political clash.
In fact, optimistic commentators hope that
both Russia and China will ultimately conform to liberal values in the long
term, evolving slowly towards a more democratic and rights-based society (however
unlikely this seems at the start of 2023, given their tightening of
authoritarian domestic controls and territorial claims in recent years). This
at least is the position of most of those who favor relaunching cooperation,
where possible, over confrontation. In their opinion, a more multipolar world
with a more diffuse leadership does not necessarily mean a weaker West, but
perhaps simply a more inclusive and wider definition of that idea. At the same
time, we may see the BRICS acting together on crucial economic issues, and also
negatively to block, discourage or restrain what they may see as Western adventurism
as regards military interventions (perhaps proposed ‘for humanitarian purposes’)
in other countries or to protect their partners from criticism, but much less
able to agree a positive, proactive line in foreign policy due to their
different political systems. Their cooperation could prove valuable in areas
where the US is no longer willing to get involved. For instance, during the Trump
administration the BRICS remained supporters of efforts
to save the Iran deal.
Other
experts point to the reaction of its BRICS partners to Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine in early 2022. They have called for restraint by both sides and a
peaceful solution to the conflict, in line with the traditional policy of the
BRICS, but abstained from votes criticizing Russia for invading an independent sovereign
state. Such tacit support for Russia may be ideological on China’s part, in
favor of authoritarian government, but simply economic on the part of India and
South Africa, both wanting to secure their energy supplies. Brazil’s position
may have partly reflected Bolsonaro’s sympathy for authoritarianism but with
the new president just the continued desire to cooperate with Russia as an
energy supplier.
China
also seems to be trying to quietly help Russia by offering an alternative to
the SWIFT payment system
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline/
and
by continuing its energy imports, but problems with infrastructure make it
unlikely that China will be able to increase imports of gas in the short term.
So
cooperation among the BRICS may be less a question of principle and more one of
a general opposition to political interference or sanctions from a Western-led
or dominated international community and a determination to have greater
influence and freedom in the economic field within the international community
and its institutions. Beyond that, however, each member of the BRICS may simply
want the freedom to focus on its own priorities in foreign policy with or
without its BRICS partners. India, for example, is also part of the Quad
group, aimed at containing China’s increasing military presence in the
Indo-Pacific area.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialogo_quadrilaterale_di_sicurezza
https://it.usembassy.gov/the-quad-advancing-peace-and-prosperity-in-the-indo-pacific/
Extra notes
# According
to http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/
in 2022, the population of Russia is 146,046,225
The population
hit a historic peak at 148,689,000 in 1991, just before the breakup of the Soviet
Union, but then began a decade-long decline, falling at a rate of about 0.5%
per year due to declining birth rates, rising death rates and emigration. The decline
slowed considerably in the late 2000s, and in 2009 Russia recorded population
growth for the first time in 15 years, adding 23,300 people. Key reasons for this
were improving health care, changing fertility patterns among younger women, falling
emigration and steady flows of immigrants from the ex-USSR countries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Population_statistics
With the 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in a move
condemned by many countries as illegal Russia occupied additional
territory with 1,965,200 inhabitants. New citizenship rules allowing
citizens of former Soviet countries to gain Russian citizenship have gained strong
interest among Uzbeks. So the population could return to levels seen just before
the breakup of the Soviet Union as well as resolve problems of statelessness,
although population growth has now declined to slightly below zero growth again.
The article below argues that Russia’s problem is not demographic but the
failure of its economic and political system to meet its people’s needs.
https://warontherocks.com/2020/02/russian-demographics-and-power-does-the-kremlin-have-a-long-game/
Trade between the EU, Russia and the other BRICS
file:///C:/Users/HP/Downloads/n13_challenges_and__opportunities_en_5586%20(1).pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_2332
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/eus-new-russia-sanctions-steel-luxury-goods-jet-fuel-and-more.html
The future
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/brics-future-challenges-multilateralism-66053/
https://www.pressenza.com/2020/11/brics-2020-achievements-and-future-challenges/
https://mg.co.za/article/2019-11-15-00-use-brics-to-help-build-a-better-country/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/the-global-economic-balance-of-power-is-shifting
Summits
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS#Summits
for the
group without South Africa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC
then http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
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