Some points
made at the SIOI conference, 15 December 2023,‘The BRICS and multilateralism’:
Intra-BRICS
trade is still relatively low, although they all do a lot of trade with China.
FDIs towards the
BRICS are mainly from the West and China.
De-dollarization (in favour of a new reserve currency, or the Chinese
currency or trading mainly in the currencies of the group) would make them less
open to Western sanctions, fluctuations in the value of the dollar and changes
in the interest rate on their public debts. However, it hasn’t happened yet and
seems unlikely. Most trade in a reserve currency is still in dollars with a
slight growth in trade in the Euro.
There’s a need to change the voting rights quotas at the IMF.
The New Development Bank is not as powerful as the IMF and mainly deals
with economic programs between the members rather than with the poor countries
of the Global South.
The BRICS still have no real institutional structure as an international
organization or founding treaty but regular meetings and cooperation in many
fields.
Is there a kind of irreversible competition or a decoupling (or a new
Cold War) between the BRICS and the G7 (the West/G7+)? Not really, this
division was real in the Cold War, not now. There’s an interdependence in
economic terms and in many others.
So do the BRICS represent a new order or disorder or a fragmentation of
the existing international order? Can the BRICS+ help to reverse this
fragmentation or will they accelerate it?
The main historic change in GDP terms is China’s economic expansion and
to some extent India’s, not that of the others. In PPP terms, however, the
total GDP of the BRICS as a percentage of global GDP is now larger than that of
the G7, so the economic institutions need to be reformed to reflect this.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-comparing-the-gdp-of-brics-and-the-g7-countries/ Latest news
https://www.kas.de/en/brics-plus
https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/02/brics-expansion-five-countries-join-ranks/#:~:text=Saudia%20Arabia%2C%20Egypt%2C%20the%20United,summit%20in%20Johannesburg%2C%20South%20Africa.
December 2023
https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/no-one-knows-what-brics-expansion-means/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/#:~:text=First%20is%20the%20decision%20on,BRICS%20from%201%20January%2C%202024.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/8/22/can-brics-create-a-new-world-order
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412425/gdp-ppp-share-world-gdp-g7-brics/#:~:text=The%20BRICS%20countries%20overtook%20the,held%20by%20the%20G7%20countries.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-comparing-the-gdp-of-brics-and-the-g7-countries/#:~:text=Prior%20to%20the%20addition%20of,its%20GDP%20of%20%241.1%20trillion.
https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-leaders-meet-south-africa-bloc-weighs-expansion-2023-08-22/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/28/the-guardian-view-on-brics-demand-for-membership-is-a-symptom-of-global-disorder
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/07/laying-the-brics-for-a-reshaped-global-order/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
Latest BRICS
summit declarations
https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-1.pdf
http://brics2022.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hywj/ODS/202207/t20220705_10715631.html
Next BRICS summit
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/93857/
China and
Africa
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth
file:///C:/Users/Pc/Downloads/china-note1%20(1).pdf
file:///C:/Users/Pc/Downloads/china-note1%20(1).pdf
India and
Africa
https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1611-45052-india-africa-trade-up-9-yoy-in-fy-2022/2023-to-98bn
https://ris.org.in/newsletter/RIS%20Latest%20Publications/2023/art-4.pdf
BRICS
economies
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/03/india-s-growth-to-remain-resilient-despite-global-challenges
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/07/pr23380-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Chinese%20economy%20is%20on,sector%20and%20subdued%20external%20demand.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/china-growth-forecast-economy-news/
https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2023/10/16/imf-expects-brazil-to-become-worlds-ninth-largest-economy.ghtml
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imf-lowers-russia-2024-gdp-growth-forecast-11-2023-10-10/#:~:text=Oct%2010%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Russia's,growth%20of%202.2%25%20this%20year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-economy-poll-idUSKBN31C10H/
Cooperation
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-67143322
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-vows-to-reroute-russian-exports-to-brics-nations/a-62223602
https://www.onuitalia.com/2023/08/24/brics-joint-statement-calls-for-unsc-reform-with-greater-role-for-india-brazil-south-africa/
Voting at
the UN https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brics-expansion-as-non-west-consolidation/
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
New Development
Bank https://www.ndb.int/event/ndb-at-the-15th-brics-summit/#:~:text=In%20August%202023%2C%20the%20New,Sustainable%20Development%20and%20Inclusive%20Multilateralism%E2%80%9D.
Disputes and
tensions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/10/three-things-know-about-china-india-tensions
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/30/india-lodges-protest-with-china-over-map-claiming-border-territory
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/9/8/g20-summit-is-india-breaking-up-with-russia
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-08-10/twilight-russian-indian-strategic-partnership
An
alternative world order?
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-vows-to-reroute-russian-exports-to-brics-nations/a-62223602
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2023/02/28/after-russia-s-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order-pub-89130
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/vladimir-putin-to-address-brics-russia-invasion-of-ukraine.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/07/china-xi-jinping-global-security-initiative/670504/
Economic
Strength
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/#:~:text=China%20has%20the%20largest%20GDP,more%20than%20the%20United%20States.
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/08/21/intra-brics-trade-and-analysis-2023/
be careful about the source
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/22/putin-brics-summit-south-africa-trade
How they
vote at the UN
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
Influence of
Russia and China in Africa
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/un-vote-russia-invasion-shows-changing-africa
https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-criticized-for-abstaining-on-un-ukraine-resolution/6468748.html
Human rights
https://amnesty.org.za/south-africa-china-put-human-rights-at-the-forefront-of-brics-leaders-summit/
https://www.gov.za/speeches/employment-and-labour-worker-rights-brics-summit-21-feb-2023-0000
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2023/02/28/after-russia-s-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order-pub-89130
BRICS and
economic development
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ndb.int/
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/brics-mulling-alternative-to-dollar-dominated-payment-system-south-africa-123011900244_1.html
The existing
world order
The Bretton
Woods Conference of 1944 created the basis for a cooperative global economic
system to stabilize the world economy, a system which soon included the United
States, Canada, Western European countries, Japan and Australia and later many
other states (see the World
Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) which was created later in the early 1990s). It expanded
to include Eastern European members of the former Communist bloc after the end
of the Cold War and the economic change of direction in China. In parallel, the
United Nations, created in 1945, was, and is, a second attempt at the Wilsonian
vision of a rule-based international political order able to prevent or rapidly
resolve international conflicts of the kind that led to the two world wars. The UN is also committed to the protection and promotion of
human rights.
Do the BRICS
countries intend to challenge the existing world order?
Do the BRICS intend to overthrow,
subvert or take control of this economic/political order?
Or do they want to create a parallel
alternative to it or simply to play a greater role within it?
Do they want a more multi-polar
system? A less Western-values-based order? Would this legitimize autocracy? Or
a system where state sovereignty is paramount?
Do they share objectives as a group
or does each of them have its own goals, only cooperating when it is to its
advantage?
Will expanding
it to include other resource rich countries give them the means to steer the
international order? Does the group represent a threat to human rights? What do
the BRICS mean by human rights?
What
evidence can you offer in responding to these questions?
Earlier
material relating to the BRICS up to
2021
https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/why-the-brics-grouping-is-here-to-stay/
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.gfmag.com/topics/blogs/ukraine-war-hits-brics
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/25/russia-brics-silence-on-ukraine/
http://globalsherpa.org/bric-countries-brics/
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/brics-countries-support-russia-ukraine-talks-for-comprehensive-solution-122041400151_1.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/how-close-are-china-and-russia-and-where-does-beijing-stand-on-ukraine
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbxw/202204/t20220414_10667990.html
China and
Russia https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/should-china-mediate-russia-ukraine-war-33995
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR-EFqDh5Oc
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220315-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-events-on-the-ground-put-china-in-a-very-difficult-situation
South Africa
and Russia https://theconversation.com/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-south-africa-blew-its-chance-as-a-credible-mediator-181101
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safricas-ramaphosa-blames-nato-russias-war-ukraine-2022-03-17/
India and
Russia https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/why-india-has-been-soft-on-russia-over-ukraine/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/31/india-russia-explore-a-rupee-rouble-payment-scheme-to-bypass-war
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60552273
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/indians-reluctant-to-denounce-russian-brothers-over-ukraine
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/after-buying-russias-discounted-oil-india-looks-to-buy-its-coal.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joleQTFv0T8
Brazil and
Russia
https://www.reuters.com/world/bolsonaro-wont-condemn-putin-says-brazil-will-remain-neutral-over-invasion-2022-02-27/
Some good
summaries, information and background about the group:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/twenty-years-brics
https://www.statista.com/topics/1393/bric-countries/#topicHeader__wrapper
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/covid-19-magnifies-brics-divergence-as-china-solidifies-lead-61053247
https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/brazilian-elections-and-future-brics-21347
https://www.ispionline.it/it/tag/brics
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/dopo-lucraina-una-nuova-bretton-woods-monetaria-34195
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00881-w#:~:text=In%20BRICS%20countries%2C%20daily%20new,respond%20to%20public%20health%20emergencies.
https://english.news.cn/20220414/d55649c109554d0589561068817ffc38/c.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/741745/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-the-bric-countries/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bric-countries
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/china-says-arunachal-pradesh-part-of-it-since-ancient-times/articleshow/88618947.cms
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/12th-brics-summit-to-be-held-virtually-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/79258024.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/covid-19-exposes-deficiencies-of-brics/ https://www.dw.com/en/have-the-brics-hit-a-wall/a-51182058
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2019/11/15/brics-2019-summit-declaration-free-trade-agreement-horizon/
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/brics
The BRICS (2010) is an international
political association of leading emerging economies,
arising out of the inclusion of South Africa
in the BRIC group (existing from June 2009). As of 2022,
its five members are Brazil,
Russia,
India, China and South Africa.
With the (partial) exception of Russia, the BRICS are all developing or newly
industrialized countries (often called ‘emerging
markets’ or ‘emerging economies’, although at this point China, for example,
has clearly emerged!) with very high growth rates between the end of the 1990s
and 2010. They have large and till recently fast-growing economies and
significant influence on regional and global affairs. The five BRICS countries
represent 26.7 % of the world’s land area. As of 2021 they represented 40% of
its population (3.23 billion, but mainly China and India)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09749101211067096
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
They accounted for 24 per cent of nominal
global gross domestic product and 16 per cent of global trade (based on World
Bank data (2019)
https://brics2021.gov.in/about-brics#:~:text=BRICS%20is%20an%20important%20grouping,share%20in%20the%20world%20trade*.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/brics-a-powerful-voice-of-developing-nations-must-become-even-stronger-pm-121090901259_1.html
https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/how-the-ilo-works/multilateral-system/brics/lang--en/index.htm
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13600818.2022.2033191
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255800/WHO-CCU-17.05-eng.pdf;sequence=1
and
were estimated to provide 45% of its workforce in 2017. In 2015 they also
accounted for around 55% of the output of emerging and developing economies. They
are members of the G20,The
combined GDP of BRICS countries as
a percentage of global GDP almost tripled from 7.9% in
1990 to 22.3% in 2015, now 24%.
The BRICS accounted,
on average, for 56% of the growth of global GNP (at 2005 $PPP) during 2008-17.
However intra-BRICS trade flows are considered low at only 10.6% of the total
foreign trade of these countries (2017).
https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1594938
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
Their
economies are said to be complementary rather than just similar, since China
and India are industrial and service producers, while Russia and Brazil are
major energy and raw materials suppliers. Russia is also a major grain
exporter. However, economic complementarity is limited by the low level of
intra-BRICS trade mentioned above. Clearly their percentage of global GDP is
likely to continue to grow in the long term, although other developing
countries may achieve even faster growth rates. The BRICS group may expand its membership
in response to this.
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good)
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good)
As we have
seen, given their enormous populations the BRICS have relatively low average
per capita income (particularly India) with large numbers of people still
living in poverty.
According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and
favorable demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid
pace from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were
printing cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their
sluggish economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China,
expanded by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively.
According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and
favorable demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid
pace from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were
printing cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their
sluggish economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China,
expanded by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/statistics
However, the
BRICS were eventually hit by the economic crisis of 2008 as it reduced demand
in developed economies. GDP growth rates for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
(with the Covid-19 pandemic) and 2021, 2022 forecast according to the IMF were:
Russia -2.8%, -0.2%, 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, -3.0%, 4.7%. 2.9% (before the war in Ukraine)
India 8.0%,
7.1%, 6.7%, 7.3%, 4.2%, -7.3%, 9.5%, 8.5%
South Africa 1.3%,
0.3%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7%, -6.5%, 5.0%, 2.2%
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
And GDP growth figures for 2022-4 are here, providing a
good comparison between the BRICS and the developed economies:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#Projections
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023
So, as of
March 2023, China’s growth has cooled significantly from the double digits
rates of previous decades but continues to be strong. India was doing well
until the pandemic and has recovered and is growing strongly. By comparison South
Africa is growing at only a modest rate. Russia and Brazil were in serious
difficulty and went through recession even before the pandemic, due to falling
oil and commodity prices and inflation (15.8% in Russia in August 2015, and 5.2%
in January 2021, and 9.5% in Brazil in August 2015, and 4.5% in December 2020.
Interest rates in Russia stood at 7.5% in September 2018 and 4.25% in December
2020, and 6.5% in Brazil in September 2018 and 2% in December 2020. Russia is
still struggling (2023) and facing further sanctions from the US and the EU and
other countries as a result of the Ukraine war. Soaring oil and prices are good
for Russia (and potentially bad for China) although the economic fallout from
the war in Ukraine are threatening Russia’s economic stability. High commodity
prices and for food and raw materials should benefit Brazil’s exports but,
together with high fuel prices, will increase pressure on the poor in the BRICS
countries (e.g. in India). Brazil’s economy registered good GDP recovery and
growth in 2022 but only modest GDP growth is forecast for 2023 and2024.
Again from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#Projections
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/charting-the-global-economy-commodities-fuel-yet-more-inflation
For the
BRICS, with the exception of China and India, this is all in contrast to
previous very strong performance between 1995 and 2010.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate However,
according to various sources, prospects (if we exclude events like the war in
Ukraine) for the BRICS’ future long-term growth, appear good and, compared with
many of the most developed economies, two of the BRICS, China and India are still
doing very well. (We will need to see if significant long-term gaps in growth
rates open up between the BRICS members.) Moreover, if their economies slowed
down simply as a result of the world recession in 2008 and pandemic in 2020-1
and as the global economy starts to recover, their growth rates may return to
previous levels. On the other hand, some experts argue that they may face real
challenges relating to structural problems within their domestic economies and
political systems. See:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview#1
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/brazil-market-challenges
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
https://carnegiemoscow.org/2021/11/24/coming-deluge-russia-s-looming-lost-decade-of-unpaid-bills-and-economic-stagnation-pub-85852
https://www.ilfoglio.it/economia/2022/02/24/news/di-tutti-i-brics-la-russia-e-quella-che-piu-ha-disatteso-le-aspettative-3727054/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/18/russian-economy-facing-massive-structural-challenges-central-bank-says-a76992
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/12/22/structural-reforms-can-ease-china-s-transition-to-high-quality-growth-report#:~:text=Three%20challenges%20stand%20out%3A%20first,and%20the%20private%20sector%3B%20and
We should
also note that some other developing economies may out-perform the BRICS in
terms of rapid GDP growth over the next decade. There is the ‘N 11’ group, the
‘Next Eleven’, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam according to Goldman Sachs. However, they too now face
serious economic problems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/goldman-s-next-11-markets-are-sinking-even-faster-than-the-brics
And the MINT
countries
https://guides.loc.gov/mexico-indonesia-nigeria-turkey
And CIVETS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS
and MIST
https://www.eldis.org/document/A66730#:~:text=MIST%20is%20an%20acronym%20that,%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20and%20Turkey.
At all
events, the BRICS group is here to stay and clearly represents a growing
movement towards a more multipolar world economic order and since the BRICS
summit in New Delhi in 2012 various goals have been outlined:
The reform of global economic
governance – They want to move forward with the ongoing revision of the quota
mechanism for governance of the IMF, revision of voting rights in the World
Bank, and revision of global economic governance in general in order to reflect
the growing economic weight of developing countries and emerging markets.
https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/14/12/21/IMF-Quotas
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789811202308_0015
Trade and Development – They
would welcome a new global reserve currency as a reliable alternative to the
dollar and to achieve greater independence from the dollar. This might even be
a cryptocurrency:
http://theduran.com/brics-talks-create-crypto-currency-another-blow-us-dollar/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-07/anti-dollar-axis
They want to
boost intra-BRICS trade using their own currencies (instead of dollars) in
order to compensate for any drop in demand due to a global future recession or
falling US/EU demand (and protect their national currencies from financial
crises or financial sanctions), and to link up their stock markets.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-calls-integrating-brics-payment-systems-2022-04-09/
https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/economy-policy/how-rupee-ruble-trade-mechanism-is-shaping-up-122032800039_1.html
but https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
Some BRICS
history
In 2012,
they examined the idea of setting up a new development bank, whose aims would
include funding development and major infrastructure projects initially in
BRICS countries, but later in developing and least
developed countries too; lending, in the long term, during global financial
crises such as the Eurozone crisis;
and issuing convertible debt,
which could be bought by the central banks of all the member states and hence
act as a means of risk-sharing.
http://www.cfr.org/brazil/brics-summit-delhi-declaration/p27805
At the BRICS
summit in Durban in March 2013, further progress was made with the approval of
the plans to create the development bank. Russia, Brazil and India agreed to
contribute $18 billion to the BRICS currency reserve pool, China $41 billion
and South Africa $5 billion.)
At the July
2014 sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil the group signed a document to
create the $100 billion funded New Development Bank (NDB) and a
reserve currency pool worth an additional $100 billion to help make currency
transaction more diversified, stable and predictable and
to act as “a kind of mini-IMF”. The NDB opened in July 2015. The NDB’s
headquarters are in Shanghai,
the institution's first president is from India, the bank's first regional
office is in Johannesburg,
the
inaugural chairman of the board of governors is from Russia and the first
chairman of the board of directors was from Brazil. The presidency, with a term
of five years, will rotate among the members of the BRICS. However, the BRICS’
NDB may be overshadowed by the other new Chinese-based multilateral lender, the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is headquartered in Beijing.
China is its biggest shareholder with about 30%, according to the legal
framework signed by 50 founding member countries. It opened for business on 16
January 2016. Major European and Asian economies, including Germany, Italy,
Britain, France, Russia, Australia, and South Korea have joined the AIIB, but
the US and Japan, two of the world’s largest economies, have declined to do so.
Some Chinese leaders have also talked of the need to prepare for a 'de-Americanized'
world economy. However, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei played down the
competitive aspect (2015). And prospects for cooperation between the banks seem
good https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/20170401_001.html
The new banks intend to offer an alternative to the World Bank, the
International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank and can be seen not
as competition to the existing system but as complementary and a way for China
to reinvest productively some of its vast $3.408 trillion foreign-exchange
reserves (August 2021). See China’s ‘Belt and Road
Initiative’ below. In
2017 the NDB moved ahead with 4 projects in China,
Russia and India with loans totaling more than $1.4bn. The
scope of the NDB’s activities includes renewable energy, information
technology, energy conservation, flood control, water quality and developing
the rural drinking water supply. Going forward, another $30bn in loans, for a
total of 15 projects by the end of 2017 and up to 50 by 2021 was announced.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/brics-new-development-bank-four-sustainability/ http://ndbbrics.org/
https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NDB-Strategy.pdf
https://www.ndb.int/about-us/essence/our-work/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ft.com/content/cc7c7ee6-918b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0
http://sd.iisd.org/news/new-development-bank-opens-for-business/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/asian-infrastructure-inve_b_7717540.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/mar/28/brics-countries-infrastructure-spending-development-bank
The
2015 BRICS summit was held in Ufa in
Russia. The summit coincided with the entry into force of constituting
agreements of the New Development Bank and the BRICS
Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a framework for the provision of
support through liquidity and precautionary instruments in response to actual
or potential short-term balance of payments pressures.
The
2016 BRICS summit was held from 15
to 16 October 2016 in Goa, India. It condemned terrorism, recognized the
difficulties for the group created by the global recession and underlined the
importance of cooperation with and work within traditional global institutions
like the WTO.
There
was some controversy over the issue of terrorism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8th_BRICS_summit#Controversy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/narendra-modi-mothership-of-terrorism-pakistan-brics-goa
The 2017 BRICS summit in Xiamen,
China helped to reduce tensions between China and India over the Doklam border
issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_China%E2%80%93India_border_standoff
The summit approved a three-year action plan (2017-2020)
for cooperation innovation and agreed to promote the development
of BRICS Local Currency Bond Markets and jointly establish a BRICS Local
Currency Bond Fund, as a means of contribution to the capital sustainability of
financing in BRICS. The BRICS grouping continued to push for cautious reform of
global order but in its final declaration made it clear that it did not wish to
weaken the institutions of the international order and reaffirmed the BRICS'
commitment to the UN and the G20, globalization, sustainable development and
the fight against climate change.
http://www.postwesternworld.com/2017/09/07/leaders-declaration-analysis/
The 2018 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa released this declaration https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/30190/10th_BRICS_Summit_Johannesburg_Declaration
“It is
important that we continue to pursue innovation-driven development and build
the BRICS Partnership on New Industrial Revolution (PartNIR) to strengthen coordination on macroeconomic policies,
find more complementarities in our development strategies, and reinforce the
competitiveness of the BRICS countries, emerging market economies and developing
countries.”
http://www.atimes.com/article/how-brics-plus-clashes-with-the-us-economic-war-on-iran/
He also
discussed the BRICS Plus initiative.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/28/c_137352893.htm
The 2019 BRICS summit was held at the Itamaraty Palace in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and saw members reaffirm
their commitment to cooperation on a range of topics.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/15/c_138555948.htm
The 2020 BRICS
summit was originally scheduled to take place
in Saint Petersburg from July 21 to 23,
2020 but was changed to a video conference held on November 17 due to the
outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_BRICS_summit
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/17/c_139523088.htm
The 2021 BRICS
summit was held in New Delhi,
India on 9 September.
Other Points
The border
dispute between India and China continued.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/11/25/china-belt-and-road-projects-value-now-exceeds-us4-trillion/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2059436418792339#:~:text=Due%20for%20completion%20in%20the,South%20Asia%20to%20the%20Middle
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
So do the
BRICS represent a fundamental change in the world order either today, or in the
near future or in the long term?
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/jim-oneill/will-brics-ever-grow
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-24/BRICS-Summit-in-China-to-focus-on-new-era-of-global-development--18Fe1TYbYOI/index.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://www.affarinternazionali.it/archivio-affarinternazionali/2020/12/da-una-crisi-allaltra-il-rilancio-del-gruppo-brics/
Few doubt
that the influence of these countries will continue to grow. After all, as
emerging economies, their growth rates have often been much higher than those that
the developed economies have averaged over the last 20 years and although all
of them have faced social and economic difficulties with the Covid-19 pandemic
and domestic challenges, their prospects for the long-term future remain good.
So the real question is whether Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
form a coherent group with a coherent set of interests which are clearly
opposed to those of the traditional ‘West’ or not. In other words, are all of
these countries really outside the ‘West’ if we do not restrict the meaning of
the term ‘West’ to a synonym for NATO or fully developed economies? Are they a
challenge to the West’s leadership of the existing international order, or even
to the order itself, or will all or some of these countries simply become a
more integral part of it?
Much of what
the BRICS aim to do with regard to trade and development, as outlined above,
should simply be welcomed by the West and the rest of the international
community in the UN. Many Western NGOs and UN agencies have been working
towards these development goals for decades, but with limited resources and
limited success. A new reserve currency alongside the dollar would make the
international financial system more stable and provide a further global lender
of last resort, while the creation and growth of the New Development Bank
should provide a way for a country like China to reinvest its surplus in
various local and global projects. How realistic all this is in the short term
is, however, less clear given some of the structural weaknesses of their economies
and some fears about China's growing total debt.
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html
Population
trends within the BRICS also differ significantly. The population of China
continues to grow, but continues to slow (0.47% in 2018, 0.43% in 2019, 0.30 in
2020) and is predicted to reach 1.45 billion in 2030 and then to go into
decline with an already aging population. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-s-population-will-peak-at-1-45-billion-around-2030-says-government/story-RO1snkgzMEUkmK8VR9HssO.html
India’s
population is youthful and expanding at 1.0% in2020 annually and will probably overtake
China as the world’s most heavily populated state by 2024. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/UN-says-Indias-population-will-overtake-China-in-seven-years-41088.html
Brazil’s
population growth rate was also high in previous years but fell to 0.80% in
2013 and remained there, 0.79% in 2018, 0.73% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020. Meanwhile
the population in South Africa grew by I.37% in 2018, 1.33% in 2019 and 1.30%
in 2019. Since
2015 population growth in the Russian Federation has been in decline and is now
in negative figures, -0.01% in 2018 and -0.05% in 2019, -0.2% in 2020 (see
notes below#). These trends impact GDP growth rates and social welfare costs in
the future, making forecasts difficult to make and suggesting growing
divergence among the members of the group.
Commentators
also point out that there are already real differences and potential divisions
and weaknesses among the group’s members which will inevitably affect the
coherence and effectiveness of the group in responding to any particular issue,
and the ultimate objectives of each of its members. Here are a few of them:
Russia and
China are permanent members of the UNSC with veto power. They initially did not
seem in a hurry to support India, Brazil and South Africa with more than words
in any bid to obtain permanent seats on the Council and do not support attempts
to reform the SC by eliminating or reducing the scope of the veto power.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-ambivalent-on-g4-call-for-unsc-reforms/articleshow/49137968.cms
https://www.rt.com/news/315510-un-security-council-reform/
The Durban
Declaration included this sentence:
“In this regard, China and Russia
reiterate the importance they attach to the status of Brazil, India and South
Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater
role in the UN.”
http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/international/brics-has-weak-stand-on-indias-security-council-aspirations_73022.html
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-bid-for-a-permanent-seat-at-the-un-security-council-suffers-blow-1206727
This seemed
to stop short of unconditional support for seats on the UNSC for Brazil and
India, but in August 2015 Russia finally expressed clear support for permanent
seats for Brazil and India:
http://in.rbth.com/world/2015/08/15/rusia-supports-applications-of-india-brazil-for-permanent-membership-in-un-sc_390367
The BRICS Xiamen summit
declaration in 2017 stated that "China and Russia reiterate the importance
they attach to the status and role of Brazil, India and South Africa in
international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the
UN."
https://www.firstpost.com/world/china-underplays-russias-backing-for-indias-permanent-membership-of-unsc-advocates-package-solution-that-accommodates-all-parties-7916861.html
https://www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/china-russia-to-help-rest-of-brics-members-play-bigger-role-in-un/50000260-3369252
Russia and China do not
automatically support the extension of the veto to India and Brazil.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-will-become-permanent-member-of-un-security-council-sushma-swaraj-1678206
Would a permanent seat without a
veto now be acceptable to the G4?
https://www.firstpost.com/world/unsc-permanent-seat-india-and-other-g4-countries-ready-to-forgo-veto-for-now-if-granted-membership-3323572.html
However, while Russia now clearly
supports India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, China is
more ambivalent since India's bid is linked to Japan's in the G4.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/oct/06/russia-reiterates-support-for-indias-permanent-seat-in-un-security-council-1881691.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-unsc-alliance-with-japan-biggest-mistake-chinese-media/articleshow/49042814.cms
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/major-differences-among-un-members-over-indias-permanent-membership-in-unsc-china/articleshow/73304888.cms?from=mdr
Moreover, Russia and China may continue to use
their position and their vetoes primarily to forward their own interests, as
they perceive them, rather than the interests of the BRICS or the interests of
the majority of developing nations in the General Assembly. For example, from
the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 China and Russia were ready to block
any resolution on Syria by the SC (like that proposed by the Arab League in
Feb. 2012 and approved by the UNGA by 137 votes to 12 with 17 abstentions,
which could have opened the door to outside intervention) or simply called for
the current regime to step down. In contrast, when Russia decided to launch its
own air strikes into Syria in September 2015, at the invitation of President
Assad, it is not clear if it first informed and coordinated its action with its
BRICS partners and sought approval from them. Russia has used its veto to block
criticism of the Assad regime or of its own intervention. Currently China
Supports Russia and the Assad regime
https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-plays-long-game-syria
India accepted Russia’s intervention but
argues that any long-term solution must be political. http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/heres-what-india-thinks-about-russian-air-strikes-in-syria/
China is, of
course, a one-party state with regional ambitions, perceived as a threat by
several of its democratic and non-democratic neighbors who have turned to the
US for support. Russia is, although formally a democracy, an authoritarian
state and one with substantial military power. By contrast, Brazil, India and
South Africa are all functioning (or dysfunctional!) democracies, with a
variety of problems relating to poverty, but sharing many ‘Western’ values.
However, Brazil’s former President, Jair Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian
leader who expressed admiration for Putin and was accused of trying to undermine
democracy in Brazil. In India Prime
Minister Narendra Modi is criticized for undermining India’s democracy. At
the same time India still has border disputes with China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-07-20/india-s-faceoff-with-china-is-a-sign-of-the-future
and is also
involved in the dispute over the status of Tibet (a ‘domestic’ Chinese issue
for the Chinese, as is Taiwan). So while the BRICS appear to represent a
calming force in international relations, in favor of conflict resolution
through dialogue and against military intervention and regime change, something
that the West, or at a least large section of Western public opinion, probably
welcomes after the long, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is not clear
that this respect for every nation’s sovereignty (and implicitly the right of a
state to repress its own citizens with impunity) will be universally accepted and approved of
by public opinion around the world, by all the members of the UNGA and by
public opinion within the democratic BRICS themselves. Military intervention
for humanitarian purposes remains a subject of heated debate within, as well as
between countries, experts and ordinary people. Some argue that a situation
like Syria requires international action. Others argue that the humanitarian
costs of intervention may easily outweigh the gains. Given Russia's
intervention in Syria it would have been an oversimplification to see this as a
division between an aggressive NATO and a peaceful BRICS. Opinion in the West
was always divided over the operations in Afghanistan, in Iraq and in Libya.
After Russia's intervention in Syria, it is interesting to see the reaction of
its BRICS partners and the level of cooperation between Russia and France
(after the Nov. 2015 terrorist attack on Paris), the EU, the US and other
regional powers like Turkey. The article below highlights the pragmatism that often
seems to shape the foreign policy of each of the BRICS.
https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id-moe/11354.pdf
Read these
articles:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/03/we-have-abandoned-the-poor-slums-suffer-as-covid-19-exposes-indias-social-divide
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/apr/25/unequal-russia-is-anger-stirring-in-the-global-capital-of-inequality
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54476934
https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/is-brics-losing-its-shine-for-china/
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/covid-19-magnifies-brics-divergence-as-china-solidifies-lead-61053247
And these challenges, together with growing
regional commitments by its members may take precedence over the BRICS'
aspirations to play a more global role in international relations as a group.
For example, Brazil in 2015 saw widespread protests by the poorest sections of
society, with people saying that they had not benefited from GDP growth, that
money had been wasted on the Olympics and World Cup and calling for the
government to do something about economic inequalities and widespread bribery
and political corruption. This scandal led to the impeachment of President
Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the arrest of former President Lula and contributed to
the election of Jair Bolsonaro as President in
October 2018, a candidate whose right-wing rhetoric proved divisive.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/07/crowds-in-sao-paulo-block-lula-from-handing-himself-in
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election
Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric may not have
helped Brazil in purchasing medical supplies and equipment need to deal with
the Covid-19 pandemic.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/bolsonaro-in-china-shop-spats-worsen-brazils-pandemic/1883204#
In 2022 political tensions in Brazil rose
again with the prospect of the coming presidential election this year.
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
One of South Africa’s main challenges, perhaps
the main one, is corruption
https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/in-south-africa-covid-19-has-exposed-greed-and-spurred-long-needed-action-against-corruption#
https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-president-stands-on-solid-ground-in-the-fight-against-corruption-150305
Meanwhile, many commentators
argue that the change in the world order is really a result simply of the rise
of China (or at most China and India) rather
than the BRICS as a whole. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/11/23/commentary/world-commentary/brics-falls-chinas-sway/#.WolLNVrwZdg https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2017/09/20/india-not-china-is-now-central-to-the-future-of-the-brics/?sh=3ac814a75d1e
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/
The BRICS seem to be able to vote with a fair degree of quiet unity at
the UN (using abstentions on votes on Ukraine, for example) and if they expand
to include other resource-rich developing counties will clearly gain in both
economic and political influence. The real question for the future is whether
this will lend more support to authoritarianism at the expense of democracy and
human rights.
However, one
should note that the BRICS are not really like the old Communist bloc, which
defined itself by its opposition to the West and to capitalism. (Perhaps
politically it has so far been more similar to the old Non-Aligned Movement of
the Cold War period, of which India was a member – at least until Russia’s
increasingly proactive foreign policy). Economically, there is no clear
division between the ‘West’ and the BRICS. In both groups we find a range of
approaches to managing the economy, those that adopt a more free-market
approach, those that believe in government supervision and those that believe
in a welfare state – and varying proportions of all three. Politically, as with
the rest of the world, the BRICS countries have their national interests and
will no doubt seek to protect them, but there is no basic ideological division
between the West and the BRICS regarding economics. China is hardly recognizable
today as a ‘Communist’ state in terms of economic policy. China and Russia are
authoritarian states but they are also part of an international community based
fairly solidly on Western liberal free-market and democratic values that they
do not wish to challenge publicly (although they may violate them) and which
shows no real signs of losing its appeal to the majority of people around the
world. Brazil, South Africa and India are active supporters of this community’s
values. As indicated previously, Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian figure
who aligned with Putin but lost the latest election (2022) to former president Lula da Silva. So
the challenge represented by the BRICS is probably best expressed in economic terms
rather than a situation arising that will necessarily lead to a political
clash. Developing economies are becoming less dependent on developed economies
and the institutions that they dominate,
Here China, Russia and Brazil
certainly say that they want the BRICS to represent an alternative model to the
West’s (the IMF and World Bank) one that represents the Global South.
In fact, optimistic commentators hope that
both Russia and China will ultimately conform to liberal values in the long
term, evolving slowly towards a more democratic and rights-based society (however
unlikely this seems at the end of 2023, given their tightening of authoritarian
domestic controls and territorial claims in recent years). This at least is the
position of most of those who favor relaunching cooperation, where possible,
over confrontation. In their opinion, a more multipolar world with a more
diffuse leadership does not necessarily mean a weaker West, but perhaps simply
a more inclusive and wider definition of that idea. At the same time, we may
see the BRICS acting together on crucial economic issues, and also negatively
to block, discourage or restrain what they may see as Western adventurism as
regards military interventions (perhaps proposed ‘for humanitarian purposes’) in
other countries or to protect their partners from criticism, but much less able
to agree a positive, proactive line in foreign policy due to their different
political systems and priorities. Their cooperation could prove valuable in
areas where the US is no longer willing to get involved. For instance, during
the Trump administration the BRICS remained supporters of efforts to save the Iran deal.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-03-27-south-africa-pursuing-major-gas-deal-and-russia-wants-in/
China
also seems to be trying to quietly help Russia by offering an alternative to
the SWIFT payment system
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline/
and
by continuing its energy imports, but problems with infrastructure make it
unlikely that China will be able to increase imports of gas in the short term.
So
cooperation among the BRICS may be less a question of principle and more one of
a general opposition to political interference or sanctions from a Western-led
or dominated international community and a determination to have greater
influence and freedom in the economic field within the international community
and its institutions. Beyond that, however, each member of the BRICS may simply
want the freedom to focus on its own priorities in foreign policy with or
without its BRICS partners. India,
for example, is also part of the Quad group, aimed at containing China’s
increasing military presence in the Indo-Pacific area.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialogo_quadrilaterale_di_sicurezza
https://it.usembassy.gov/the-quad-advancing-peace-and-prosperity-in-the-indo-pacific/
Intra-BRICS trade is still relatively low, although they all do a lot of trade with China.
There’s a need to change the voting rights quotas at the IMF.
The main historic change in GDP terms is China’s economic expansion and to some extent India’s, not that of the others. In PPP terms, however, the total GDP of the BRICS as a percentage of global GDP is now larger than that of the G7, so the economic institutions need to be reformed to reflect this.
https://www.kas.de/en/brics-plus
https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/02/brics-expansion-five-countries-join-ranks/#:~:text=Saudia%20Arabia%2C%20Egypt%2C%20the%20United,summit%20in%20Johannesburg%2C%20South%20Africa.
December 2023
https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/no-one-knows-what-brics-expansion-means/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/#:~:text=First%20is%20the%20decision%20on,BRICS%20from%201%20January%2C%202024.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/8/22/can-brics-create-a-new-world-order
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412425/gdp-ppp-share-world-gdp-g7-brics/#:~:text=The%20BRICS%20countries%20overtook%20the,held%20by%20the%20G7%20countries.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-comparing-the-gdp-of-brics-and-the-g7-countries/#:~:text=Prior%20to%20the%20addition%20of,its%20GDP%20of%20%241.1%20trillion.
https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-leaders-meet-south-africa-bloc-weighs-expansion-2023-08-22/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/28/the-guardian-view-on-brics-demand-for-membership-is-a-symptom-of-global-disorder
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/07/laying-the-brics-for-a-reshaped-global-order/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
Latest BRICS summit declarations
https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-1.pdf
http://brics2022.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hywj/ODS/202207/t20220705_10715631.html
Next BRICS summit
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/93857/
China and Africa
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth
file:///C:/Users/Pc/Downloads/china-note1%20(1).pdf
file:///C:/Users/Pc/Downloads/china-note1%20(1).pdf
India and Africa
https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1611-45052-india-africa-trade-up-9-yoy-in-fy-2022/2023-to-98bn
https://ris.org.in/newsletter/RIS%20Latest%20Publications/2023/art-4.pdf
BRICS economies
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/03/india-s-growth-to-remain-resilient-despite-global-challenges
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/07/pr23380-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Chinese%20economy%20is%20on,sector%20and%20subdued%20external%20demand.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/china-growth-forecast-economy-news/
https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2023/10/16/imf-expects-brazil-to-become-worlds-ninth-largest-economy.ghtml
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imf-lowers-russia-2024-gdp-growth-forecast-11-2023-10-10/#:~:text=Oct%2010%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Russia's,growth%20of%202.2%25%20this%20year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-economy-poll-idUSKBN31C10H/
Cooperation
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-67143322
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-vows-to-reroute-russian-exports-to-brics-nations/a-62223602
https://www.onuitalia.com/2023/08/24/brics-joint-statement-calls-for-unsc-reform-with-greater-role-for-india-brazil-south-africa/
Voting at the UN https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brics-expansion-as-non-west-consolidation/
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
New Development Bank https://www.ndb.int/event/ndb-at-the-15th-brics-summit/#:~:text=In%20August%202023%2C%20the%20New,Sustainable%20Development%20and%20Inclusive%20Multilateralism%E2%80%9D.
Disputes and tensions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/10/three-things-know-about-china-india-tensions
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/30/india-lodges-protest-with-china-over-map-claiming-border-territory
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/9/8/g20-summit-is-india-breaking-up-with-russia
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-08-10/twilight-russian-indian-strategic-partnership
An alternative world order?
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-vows-to-reroute-russian-exports-to-brics-nations/a-62223602
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2023/02/28/after-russia-s-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order-pub-89130
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/vladimir-putin-to-address-brics-russia-invasion-of-ukraine.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/07/china-xi-jinping-global-security-initiative/670504/
Economic Strength
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/#:~:text=China%20has%20the%20largest%20GDP,more%20than%20the%20United%20States.
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/08/21/intra-brics-trade-and-analysis-2023/ be careful about the source
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/22/putin-brics-summit-south-africa-trade
How they vote at the UN
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
Influence of Russia and China in Africa
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/un-vote-russia-invasion-shows-changing-africa
https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-criticized-for-abstaining-on-un-ukraine-resolution/6468748.html
Human rights
https://amnesty.org.za/south-africa-china-put-human-rights-at-the-forefront-of-brics-leaders-summit/
https://www.gov.za/speeches/employment-and-labour-worker-rights-brics-summit-21-feb-2023-0000
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2023/02/28/after-russia-s-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order-pub-89130
BRICS and economic development
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ndb.int/
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/brics-mulling-alternative-to-dollar-dominated-payment-system-south-africa-123011900244_1.html
The existing world order
The Bretton Woods Conference of 1944 created the basis for a cooperative global economic system to stabilize the world economy, a system which soon included the United States, Canada, Western European countries, Japan and Australia and later many other states (see the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which was created later in the early 1990s). It expanded to include Eastern European members of the former Communist bloc after the end of the Cold War and the economic change of direction in China. In parallel, the United Nations, created in 1945, was, and is, a second attempt at the Wilsonian vision of a rule-based international political order able to prevent or rapidly resolve international conflicts of the kind that led to the two world wars. The UN is also committed to the protection and promotion of human rights.
Do the BRICS countries intend to challenge the existing world order?
Do the BRICS intend to overthrow, subvert or take control of this economic/political order?
Or do they want to create a parallel alternative to it or simply to play a greater role within it?
Do they want a more multi-polar system? A less Western-values-based order? Would this legitimize autocracy? Or a system where state sovereignty is paramount?
Do they share objectives as a group or does each of them have its own goals, only cooperating when it is to its advantage?
Will expanding it to include other resource rich countries give them the means to steer the international order? Does the group represent a threat to human rights? What do the BRICS mean by human rights?
What evidence can you offer in responding to these questions?
https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/why-the-brics-grouping-is-here-to-stay/
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.gfmag.com/topics/blogs/ukraine-war-hits-brics
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/25/russia-brics-silence-on-ukraine/
http://globalsherpa.org/bric-countries-brics/
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/brics-countries-support-russia-ukraine-talks-for-comprehensive-solution-122041400151_1.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/how-close-are-china-and-russia-and-where-does-beijing-stand-on-ukraine
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbxw/202204/t20220414_10667990.html
China and Russia https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/should-china-mediate-russia-ukraine-war-33995
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR-EFqDh5Oc
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220315-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-events-on-the-ground-put-china-in-a-very-difficult-situation
South Africa and Russia https://theconversation.com/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-south-africa-blew-its-chance-as-a-credible-mediator-181101
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safricas-ramaphosa-blames-nato-russias-war-ukraine-2022-03-17/
India and Russia https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/why-india-has-been-soft-on-russia-over-ukraine/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/31/india-russia-explore-a-rupee-rouble-payment-scheme-to-bypass-war
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60552273
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/indians-reluctant-to-denounce-russian-brothers-over-ukraine
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/after-buying-russias-discounted-oil-india-looks-to-buy-its-coal.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joleQTFv0T8
Brazil and Russia
https://www.reuters.com/world/bolsonaro-wont-condemn-putin-says-brazil-will-remain-neutral-over-invasion-2022-02-27/
Some good summaries, information and background about the group:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/twenty-years-brics
https://www.statista.com/topics/1393/bric-countries/#topicHeader__wrapper
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/covid-19-magnifies-brics-divergence-as-china-solidifies-lead-61053247
https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/brazilian-elections-and-future-brics-21347
https://www.ispionline.it/it/tag/brics
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/dopo-lucraina-una-nuova-bretton-woods-monetaria-34195
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00881-w#:~:text=In%20BRICS%20countries%2C%20daily%20new,respond%20to%20public%20health%20emergencies.
https://english.news.cn/20220414/d55649c109554d0589561068817ffc38/c.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/741745/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-the-bric-countries/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bric-countries
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/china-says-arunachal-pradesh-part-of-it-since-ancient-times/articleshow/88618947.cms
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/12th-brics-summit-to-be-held-virtually-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/79258024.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/covid-19-exposes-deficiencies-of-brics/ https://www.dw.com/en/have-the-brics-hit-a-wall/a-51182058
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2019/11/15/brics-2019-summit-declaration-free-trade-agreement-horizon/
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/brics
The BRICS (2010) is an international political association of leading emerging economies, arising out of the inclusion of South Africa in the BRIC group (existing from June 2009). As of 2022, its five members are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. With the (partial) exception of Russia, the BRICS are all developing or newly industrialized countries (often called ‘emerging markets’ or ‘emerging economies’, although at this point China, for example, has clearly emerged!) with very high growth rates between the end of the 1990s and 2010. They have large and till recently fast-growing economies and significant influence on regional and global affairs. The five BRICS countries represent 26.7 % of the world’s land area. As of 2021 they represented 40% of its population (3.23 billion, but mainly China and India)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09749101211067096
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
They accounted for 24 per cent of nominal global gross domestic product and 16 per cent of global trade (based on World Bank data (2019)
https://brics2021.gov.in/about-brics#:~:text=BRICS%20is%20an%20important%20grouping,share%20in%20the%20world%20trade*.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/brics-a-powerful-voice-of-developing-nations-must-become-even-stronger-pm-121090901259_1.html
https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/how-the-ilo-works/multilateral-system/brics/lang--en/index.htm
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13600818.2022.2033191
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255800/WHO-CCU-17.05-eng.pdf;sequence=1
and were estimated to provide 45% of its workforce in 2017. In 2015 they also accounted for around 55% of the output of emerging and developing economies. They are members of the G20,The combined GDP of BRICS countries as a percentage of global GDP almost tripled from 7.9% in 1990 to 22.3% in 2015, now 24%.
The BRICS accounted, on average, for 56% of the growth of global GNP (at 2005 $PPP) during 2008-17. However intra-BRICS trade flows are considered low at only 10.6% of the total foreign trade of these countries (2017).
https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1594938
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS Their economies are said to be complementary rather than just similar, since China and India are industrial and service producers, while Russia and Brazil are major energy and raw materials suppliers. Russia is also a major grain exporter. However, economic complementarity is limited by the low level of intra-BRICS trade mentioned above. Clearly their percentage of global GDP is likely to continue to grow in the long term, although other developing countries may achieve even faster growth rates. The BRICS group may expand its membership in response to this.
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good)
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good) As we have seen, given their enormous populations the BRICS have relatively low average per capita income (particularly India) with large numbers of people still living in poverty.
According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and favorable demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid pace from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were printing cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their sluggish economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, expanded by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively.
According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and favorable demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid pace from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were printing cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their sluggish economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, expanded by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/statistics However, the BRICS were eventually hit by the economic crisis of 2008 as it reduced demand in developed economies. GDP growth rates for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 (with the Covid-19 pandemic) and 2021, 2022 forecast according to the IMF were:
Russia -2.8%, -0.2%, 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, -3.0%, 4.7%. 2.9% (before the war in Ukraine)
India 8.0%, 7.1%, 6.7%, 7.3%, 4.2%, -7.3%, 9.5%, 8.5%
South Africa 1.3%, 0.3%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7%, -6.5%, 5.0%, 2.2%
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
And GDP growth figures for 2022-4 are here, providing a good comparison between the BRICS and the developed economies:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#Projections
from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023
So, as of March 2023, China’s growth has cooled significantly from the double digits rates of previous decades but continues to be strong. India was doing well until the pandemic and has recovered and is growing strongly. By comparison South Africa is growing at only a modest rate. Russia and Brazil were in serious difficulty and went through recession even before the pandemic, due to falling oil and commodity prices and inflation (15.8% in Russia in August 2015, and 5.2% in January 2021, and 9.5% in Brazil in August 2015, and 4.5% in December 2020. Interest rates in Russia stood at 7.5% in September 2018 and 4.25% in December 2020, and 6.5% in Brazil in September 2018 and 2% in December 2020. Russia is still struggling (2023) and facing further sanctions from the US and the EU and other countries as a result of the Ukraine war. Soaring oil and prices are good for Russia (and potentially bad for China) although the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine are threatening Russia’s economic stability. High commodity prices and for food and raw materials should benefit Brazil’s exports but, together with high fuel prices, will increase pressure on the poor in the BRICS countries (e.g. in India). Brazil’s economy registered good GDP recovery and growth in 2022 but only modest GDP growth is forecast for 2023 and2024.
Again from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#Projections
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/charting-the-global-economy-commodities-fuel-yet-more-inflation
For the BRICS, with the exception of China and India, this is all in contrast to previous very strong performance between 1995 and 2010.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate However, according to various sources, prospects (if we exclude events like the war in Ukraine) for the BRICS’ future long-term growth, appear good and, compared with many of the most developed economies, two of the BRICS, China and India are still doing very well. (We will need to see if significant long-term gaps in growth rates open up between the BRICS members.) Moreover, if their economies slowed down simply as a result of the world recession in 2008 and pandemic in 2020-1 and as the global economy starts to recover, their growth rates may return to previous levels. On the other hand, some experts argue that they may face real challenges relating to structural problems within their domestic economies and political systems. See:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview#1
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/brazil-market-challenges
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
https://carnegiemoscow.org/2021/11/24/coming-deluge-russia-s-looming-lost-decade-of-unpaid-bills-and-economic-stagnation-pub-85852
https://www.ilfoglio.it/economia/2022/02/24/news/di-tutti-i-brics-la-russia-e-quella-che-piu-ha-disatteso-le-aspettative-3727054/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/18/russian-economy-facing-massive-structural-challenges-central-bank-says-a76992
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/12/22/structural-reforms-can-ease-china-s-transition-to-high-quality-growth-report#:~:text=Three%20challenges%20stand%20out%3A%20first,and%20the%20private%20sector%3B%20and
We should also note that some other developing economies may out-perform the BRICS in terms of rapid GDP growth over the next decade. There is the ‘N 11’ group, the ‘Next Eleven’, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam according to Goldman Sachs. However, they too now face serious economic problems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/goldman-s-next-11-markets-are-sinking-even-faster-than-the-brics
And the MINT countries
https://guides.loc.gov/mexico-indonesia-nigeria-turkey
And CIVETS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS
and MIST
https://www.eldis.org/document/A66730#:~:text=MIST%20is%20an%20acronym%20that,%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20and%20Turkey.
At all events, the BRICS group is here to stay and clearly represents a growing movement towards a more multipolar world economic order and since the BRICS summit in New Delhi in 2012 various goals have been outlined:
The reform of global economic governance – They want to move forward with the ongoing revision of the quota mechanism for governance of the IMF, revision of voting rights in the World Bank, and revision of global economic governance in general in order to reflect the growing economic weight of developing countries and emerging markets.
https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/14/12/21/IMF-Quotas
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789811202308_0015
Trade and Development – They would welcome a new global reserve currency as a reliable alternative to the dollar and to achieve greater independence from the dollar. This might even be a cryptocurrency:
http://theduran.com/brics-talks-create-crypto-currency-another-blow-us-dollar/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-07/anti-dollar-axis
They want to boost intra-BRICS trade using their own currencies (instead of dollars) in order to compensate for any drop in demand due to a global future recession or falling US/EU demand (and protect their national currencies from financial crises or financial sanctions), and to link up their stock markets.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-calls-integrating-brics-payment-systems-2022-04-09/
https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/economy-policy/how-rupee-ruble-trade-mechanism-is-shaping-up-122032800039_1.html
but https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
Some BRICS history
In 2012, they examined the idea of setting up a new development bank, whose aims would include funding development and major infrastructure projects initially in BRICS countries, but later in developing and least developed countries too; lending, in the long term, during global financial crises such as the Eurozone crisis; and issuing convertible debt, which could be bought by the central banks of all the member states and hence act as a means of risk-sharing.
http://www.cfr.org/brazil/brics-summit-delhi-declaration/p27805
At the BRICS summit in Durban in March 2013, further progress was made with the approval of the plans to create the development bank. Russia, Brazil and India agreed to contribute $18 billion to the BRICS currency reserve pool, China $41 billion and South Africa $5 billion.)
At the July 2014 sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil the group signed a document to create the $100 billion funded New Development Bank (NDB) and a reserve currency pool worth an additional $100 billion to help make currency transaction more diversified, stable and predictable and to act as “a kind of mini-IMF”. The NDB opened in July 2015. The NDB’s headquarters are in Shanghai, the institution's first president is from India, the bank's first regional office is in Johannesburg, the inaugural chairman of the board of governors is from Russia and the first chairman of the board of directors was from Brazil. The presidency, with a term of five years, will rotate among the members of the BRICS. However, the BRICS’ NDB may be overshadowed by the other new Chinese-based multilateral lender, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is headquartered in Beijing. China is its biggest shareholder with about 30%, according to the legal framework signed by 50 founding member countries. It opened for business on 16 January 2016. Major European and Asian economies, including Germany, Italy, Britain, France, Russia, Australia, and South Korea have joined the AIIB, but the US and Japan, two of the world’s largest economies, have declined to do so. Some Chinese leaders have also talked of the need to prepare for a 'de-Americanized' world economy. However, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei played down the competitive aspect (2015). And prospects for cooperation between the banks seem good https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/20170401_001.html The new banks intend to offer an alternative to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank and can be seen not as competition to the existing system but as complementary and a way for China to reinvest productively some of its vast $3.408 trillion foreign-exchange reserves (August 2021). See China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ below. In 2017 the NDB moved ahead with 4 projects in China, Russia and India with loans totaling more than $1.4bn. The scope of the NDB’s activities includes renewable energy, information technology, energy conservation, flood control, water quality and developing the rural drinking water supply. Going forward, another $30bn in loans, for a total of 15 projects by the end of 2017 and up to 50 by 2021 was announced.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/brics-new-development-bank-four-sustainability/ http://ndbbrics.org/
https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NDB-Strategy.pdf
https://www.ndb.int/about-us/essence/our-work/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ft.com/content/cc7c7ee6-918b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0
http://sd.iisd.org/news/new-development-bank-opens-for-business/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/asian-infrastructure-inve_b_7717540.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/mar/28/brics-countries-infrastructure-spending-development-bank
The 2015 BRICS summit was held in Ufa in Russia. The summit coincided with the entry into force of constituting agreements of the New Development Bank and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a framework for the provision of support through liquidity and precautionary instruments in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures.
The 2016 BRICS summit was held from 15 to 16 October 2016 in Goa, India. It condemned terrorism, recognized the difficulties for the group created by the global recession and underlined the importance of cooperation with and work within traditional global institutions like the WTO.
There was some controversy over the issue of terrorism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8th_BRICS_summit#Controversy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/narendra-modi-mothership-of-terrorism-pakistan-brics-goa
The 2017 BRICS summit in Xiamen, China helped to reduce tensions between China and India over the Doklam border issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_China%E2%80%93India_border_standoff
The summit approved a three-year action plan (2017-2020) for cooperation innovation and agreed to promote the development of BRICS Local Currency Bond Markets and jointly establish a BRICS Local Currency Bond Fund, as a means of contribution to the capital sustainability of financing in BRICS. The BRICS grouping continued to push for cautious reform of global order but in its final declaration made it clear that it did not wish to weaken the institutions of the international order and reaffirmed the BRICS' commitment to the UN and the G20, globalization, sustainable development and the fight against climate change.
http://www.postwesternworld.com/2017/09/07/leaders-declaration-analysis/
The 2018 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa released this declaration https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/30190/10th_BRICS_Summit_Johannesburg_Declaration
“It is important that we continue to pursue innovation-driven development and build the BRICS Partnership on New Industrial Revolution (PartNIR) to strengthen coordination on macroeconomic policies, find more complementarities in our development strategies, and reinforce the competitiveness of the BRICS countries, emerging market economies and developing countries.”
http://www.atimes.com/article/how-brics-plus-clashes-with-the-us-economic-war-on-iran/
He also discussed the BRICS Plus initiative.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/28/c_137352893.htm
The 2019 BRICS summit was held at the Itamaraty Palace in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and saw members reaffirm their commitment to cooperation on a range of topics.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/15/c_138555948.htm
The 2020 BRICS summit was originally scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg from July 21 to 23, 2020 but was changed to a video conference held on November 17 due to the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_BRICS_summit
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/17/c_139523088.htm
The 2021 BRICS summit was held in New Delhi, India on 9 September.
Other Points
The border dispute between India and China continued.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/11/25/china-belt-and-road-projects-value-now-exceeds-us4-trillion/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2059436418792339#:~:text=Due%20for%20completion%20in%20the,South%20Asia%20to%20the%20Middle
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128
So do the BRICS represent a fundamental change in the world order either today, or in the near future or in the long term?
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410
https://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/jim-oneill/will-brics-ever-grow
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-24/BRICS-Summit-in-China-to-focus-on-new-era-of-global-development--18Fe1TYbYOI/index.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/
https://www.affarinternazionali.it/archivio-affarinternazionali/2020/12/da-una-crisi-allaltra-il-rilancio-del-gruppo-brics/
Few doubt that the influence of these countries will continue to grow. After all, as emerging economies, their growth rates have often been much higher than those that the developed economies have averaged over the last 20 years and although all of them have faced social and economic difficulties with the Covid-19 pandemic and domestic challenges, their prospects for the long-term future remain good. So the real question is whether Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa form a coherent group with a coherent set of interests which are clearly opposed to those of the traditional ‘West’ or not. In other words, are all of these countries really outside the ‘West’ if we do not restrict the meaning of the term ‘West’ to a synonym for NATO or fully developed economies? Are they a challenge to the West’s leadership of the existing international order, or even to the order itself, or will all or some of these countries simply become a more integral part of it?
Much of what the BRICS aim to do with regard to trade and development, as outlined above, should simply be welcomed by the West and the rest of the international community in the UN. Many Western NGOs and UN agencies have been working towards these development goals for decades, but with limited resources and limited success. A new reserve currency alongside the dollar would make the international financial system more stable and provide a further global lender of last resort, while the creation and growth of the New Development Bank should provide a way for a country like China to reinvest its surplus in various local and global projects. How realistic all this is in the short term is, however, less clear given some of the structural weaknesses of their economies and some fears about China's growing total debt.
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html
Population trends within the BRICS also differ significantly. The population of China continues to grow, but continues to slow (0.47% in 2018, 0.43% in 2019, 0.30 in 2020) and is predicted to reach 1.45 billion in 2030 and then to go into decline with an already aging population. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-s-population-will-peak-at-1-45-billion-around-2030-says-government/story-RO1snkgzMEUkmK8VR9HssO.html India’s population is youthful and expanding at 1.0% in2020 annually and will probably overtake China as the world’s most heavily populated state by 2024. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/UN-says-Indias-population-will-overtake-China-in-seven-years-41088.html Brazil’s population growth rate was also high in previous years but fell to 0.80% in 2013 and remained there, 0.79% in 2018, 0.73% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020. Meanwhile the population in South Africa grew by I.37% in 2018, 1.33% in 2019 and 1.30% in 2019. Since 2015 population growth in the Russian Federation has been in decline and is now in negative figures, -0.01% in 2018 and -0.05% in 2019, -0.2% in 2020 (see notes below#). These trends impact GDP growth rates and social welfare costs in the future, making forecasts difficult to make and suggesting growing divergence among the members of the group.
Commentators also point out that there are already real differences and potential divisions and weaknesses among the group’s members which will inevitably affect the coherence and effectiveness of the group in responding to any particular issue, and the ultimate objectives of each of its members. Here are a few of them:
Russia and China are permanent members of the UNSC with veto power. They initially did not seem in a hurry to support India, Brazil and South Africa with more than words in any bid to obtain permanent seats on the Council and do not support attempts to reform the SC by eliminating or reducing the scope of the veto power.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-ambivalent-on-g4-call-for-unsc-reforms/articleshow/49137968.cms
https://www.rt.com/news/315510-un-security-council-reform/
The Durban Declaration included this sentence:
“In this regard, China and Russia reiterate the importance they attach to the status of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN.”
http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/international/brics-has-weak-stand-on-indias-security-council-aspirations_73022.html
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-bid-for-a-permanent-seat-at-the-un-security-council-suffers-blow-1206727
This seemed to stop short of unconditional support for seats on the UNSC for Brazil and India, but in August 2015 Russia finally expressed clear support for permanent seats for Brazil and India:
http://in.rbth.com/world/2015/08/15/rusia-supports-applications-of-india-brazil-for-permanent-membership-in-un-sc_390367
The BRICS Xiamen summit declaration in 2017 stated that "China and Russia reiterate the importance they attach to the status and role of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN."
https://www.firstpost.com/world/china-underplays-russias-backing-for-indias-permanent-membership-of-unsc-advocates-package-solution-that-accommodates-all-parties-7916861.html
https://www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/china-russia-to-help-rest-of-brics-members-play-bigger-role-in-un/50000260-3369252
Russia and China do not automatically support the extension of the veto to India and Brazil.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-will-become-permanent-member-of-un-security-council-sushma-swaraj-1678206
Would a permanent seat without a veto now be acceptable to the G4?
https://www.firstpost.com/world/unsc-permanent-seat-india-and-other-g4-countries-ready-to-forgo-veto-for-now-if-granted-membership-3323572.html
However, while Russia now clearly supports India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, China is more ambivalent since India's bid is linked to Japan's in the G4.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/oct/06/russia-reiterates-support-for-indias-permanent-seat-in-un-security-council-1881691.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-unsc-alliance-with-japan-biggest-mistake-chinese-media/articleshow/49042814.cms
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/major-differences-among-un-members-over-indias-permanent-membership-in-unsc-china/articleshow/73304888.cms?from=mdr
Moreover, Russia and China may continue to use their position and their vetoes primarily to forward their own interests, as they perceive them, rather than the interests of the BRICS or the interests of the majority of developing nations in the General Assembly. For example, from the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 China and Russia were ready to block any resolution on Syria by the SC (like that proposed by the Arab League in Feb. 2012 and approved by the UNGA by 137 votes to 12 with 17 abstentions, which could have opened the door to outside intervention) or simply called for the current regime to step down. In contrast, when Russia decided to launch its own air strikes into Syria in September 2015, at the invitation of President Assad, it is not clear if it first informed and coordinated its action with its BRICS partners and sought approval from them. Russia has used its veto to block criticism of the Assad regime or of its own intervention. Currently China
Supports Russia and the Assad regime
https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-plays-long-game-syria
India accepted Russia’s intervention but argues that any long-term solution must be political. http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/heres-what-india-thinks-about-russian-air-strikes-in-syria/
China is, of course, a one-party state with regional ambitions, perceived as a threat by several of its democratic and non-democratic neighbors who have turned to the US for support. Russia is, although formally a democracy, an authoritarian state and one with substantial military power. By contrast, Brazil, India and South Africa are all functioning (or dysfunctional!) democracies, with a variety of problems relating to poverty, but sharing many ‘Western’ values. However, Brazil’s former President, Jair Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian leader who expressed admiration for Putin and was accused of trying to undermine democracy in Brazil. In India Prime Minister Narendra Modi is criticized for undermining India’s democracy. At the same time India still has border disputes with China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-07-20/india-s-faceoff-with-china-is-a-sign-of-the-future
and is also involved in the dispute over the status of Tibet (a ‘domestic’ Chinese issue for the Chinese, as is Taiwan). So while the BRICS appear to represent a calming force in international relations, in favor of conflict resolution through dialogue and against military intervention and regime change, something that the West, or at a least large section of Western public opinion, probably welcomes after the long, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is not clear that this respect for every nation’s sovereignty (and implicitly the right of a state to repress its own citizens with impunity) will be universally accepted and approved of by public opinion around the world, by all the members of the UNGA and by public opinion within the democratic BRICS themselves. Military intervention for humanitarian purposes remains a subject of heated debate within, as well as between countries, experts and ordinary people. Some argue that a situation like Syria requires international action. Others argue that the humanitarian costs of intervention may easily outweigh the gains. Given Russia's intervention in Syria it would have been an oversimplification to see this as a division between an aggressive NATO and a peaceful BRICS. Opinion in the West was always divided over the operations in Afghanistan, in Iraq and in Libya. After Russia's intervention in Syria, it is interesting to see the reaction of its BRICS partners and the level of cooperation between Russia and France (after the Nov. 2015 terrorist attack on Paris), the EU, the US and other regional powers like Turkey. The article below highlights the pragmatism that often seems to shape the foreign policy of each of the BRICS. https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id-moe/11354.pdf
Read these articles:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/03/we-have-abandoned-the-poor-slums-suffer-as-covid-19-exposes-indias-social-divide
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/apr/25/unequal-russia-is-anger-stirring-in-the-global-capital-of-inequality
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54476934
https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/is-brics-losing-its-shine-for-china/
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/covid-19-magnifies-brics-divergence-as-china-solidifies-lead-61053247
And these challenges, together with growing regional commitments by its members may take precedence over the BRICS' aspirations to play a more global role in international relations as a group. For example, Brazil in 2015 saw widespread protests by the poorest sections of society, with people saying that they had not benefited from GDP growth, that money had been wasted on the Olympics and World Cup and calling for the government to do something about economic inequalities and widespread bribery and political corruption. This scandal led to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the arrest of former President Lula and contributed to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as President in October 2018, a candidate whose right-wing rhetoric proved divisive.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/07/crowds-in-sao-paulo-block-lula-from-handing-himself-in
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election
Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric may not have helped Brazil in purchasing medical supplies and equipment need to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/bolsonaro-in-china-shop-spats-worsen-brazils-pandemic/1883204#
In 2022 political tensions in Brazil rose again with the prospect of the coming presidential election this year.
https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/
One of South Africa’s main challenges, perhaps the main one, is corruption
https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/in-south-africa-covid-19-has-exposed-greed-and-spurred-long-needed-action-against-corruption#
https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-president-stands-on-solid-ground-in-the-fight-against-corruption-150305 Meanwhile, many commentators argue that the change in the world order is really a result simply of the rise of China (or at most China and India) rather than the BRICS as a whole. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/11/23/commentary/world-commentary/brics-falls-chinas-sway/#.WolLNVrwZdg https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2017/09/20/india-not-china-is-now-central-to-the-future-of-the-brics/?sh=3ac814a75d1e
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/
The BRICS seem to be able to vote with a fair degree of quiet unity at the UN (using abstentions on votes on Ukraine, for example) and if they expand to include other resource-rich developing counties will clearly gain in both economic and political influence. The real question for the future is whether this will lend more support to authoritarianism at the expense of democracy and human rights.
However, one should note that the BRICS are not really like the old Communist bloc, which defined itself by its opposition to the West and to capitalism. (Perhaps politically it has so far been more similar to the old Non-Aligned Movement of the Cold War period, of which India was a member – at least until Russia’s increasingly proactive foreign policy). Economically, there is no clear division between the ‘West’ and the BRICS. In both groups we find a range of approaches to managing the economy, those that adopt a more free-market approach, those that believe in government supervision and those that believe in a welfare state – and varying proportions of all three. Politically, as with the rest of the world, the BRICS countries have their national interests and will no doubt seek to protect them, but there is no basic ideological division between the West and the BRICS regarding economics. China is hardly recognizable today as a ‘Communist’ state in terms of economic policy. China and Russia are authoritarian states but they are also part of an international community based fairly solidly on Western liberal free-market and democratic values that they do not wish to challenge publicly (although they may violate them) and which shows no real signs of losing its appeal to the majority of people around the world. Brazil, South Africa and India are active supporters of this community’s values. As indicated previously, Bolsonaro was a populist authoritarian figure who aligned with Putin but lost the latest election (2022) to former president Lula da Silva. So the challenge represented by the BRICS is probably best expressed in economic terms rather than a situation arising that will necessarily lead to a political clash. Developing economies are becoming less dependent on developed economies and the institutions that they dominate, Here China, Russia and Brazil certainly say that they want the BRICS to represent an alternative model to the West’s (the IMF and World Bank) one that represents the Global South.
In fact, optimistic commentators hope that both Russia and China will ultimately conform to liberal values in the long term, evolving slowly towards a more democratic and rights-based society (however unlikely this seems at the end of 2023, given their tightening of authoritarian domestic controls and territorial claims in recent years). This at least is the position of most of those who favor relaunching cooperation, where possible, over confrontation. In their opinion, a more multipolar world with a more diffuse leadership does not necessarily mean a weaker West, but perhaps simply a more inclusive and wider definition of that idea. At the same time, we may see the BRICS acting together on crucial economic issues, and also negatively to block, discourage or restrain what they may see as Western adventurism as regards military interventions (perhaps proposed ‘for humanitarian purposes’) in other countries or to protect their partners from criticism, but much less able to agree a positive, proactive line in foreign policy due to their different political systems and priorities. Their cooperation could prove valuable in areas where the US is no longer willing to get involved. For instance, during the Trump administration the BRICS remained supporters of efforts to save the Iran deal.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-03-27-south-africa-pursuing-major-gas-deal-and-russia-wants-in/
China also seems to be trying to quietly help Russia by offering an alternative to the SWIFT payment system
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline/
and by continuing its energy imports, but problems with infrastructure make it unlikely that China will be able to increase imports of gas in the short term.
So cooperation among the BRICS may be less a question of principle and more one of a general opposition to political interference or sanctions from a Western-led or dominated international community and a determination to have greater influence and freedom in the economic field within the international community and its institutions. Beyond that, however, each member of the BRICS may simply want the freedom to focus on its own priorities in foreign policy with or without its BRICS partners. India, for example, is also part of the Quad group, aimed at containing China’s increasing military presence in the Indo-Pacific area.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialogo_quadrilaterale_di_sicurezza
https://it.usembassy.gov/the-quad-advancing-peace-and-prosperity-in-the-indo-pacific/
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