Global trade is projected to hit a record high in 2025, exceeding $35 trillion for the first time, marking a 7% increase ($2.2 trillion) over 2024 levels, notes UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Growth is driven by a nearly 9% surge in services and robust goods trade, particularly in AI-related electronics and manufacturing, despite increased geopolitical tensions and protective trade policies.
Key Drivers and Trends for 2025
Sector Performance: Merchandise
trade is expected to grow, with AI-related goods contributing significantly to
the increase. Services trade remains strong, with a projected 9% increase.
Regional Drivers: Developing
economies, particularly in East Asia and Africa, continue to drive trade
expansion.
Geopolitical Factors: The
shift toward friendshoring and nearshoring is accelerating, alongside rising
protectionism and policy uncertainty.
China: China posted a
record USD 1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising 5.5% while
imports were flat. Faced with Trump's tariffs, Chinese exporters shifted
production away from the US market and toward alternative destinations,
particularly the EU and Southeast Asia.
Structural Changes: Investments
in digital infrastructure and green transitions are reshaping global value
chains.
2024-2026 Trend
2024 Context: In
2024, global trade was expected to reach $33 trillion, with services growing at
7% and goods at 2%.
2025 Growth: The
7% growth in 2025 represents an acceleration compared to 2024, driven by volume
increases outpacing price changes.
Outlook: While 2025
shows strong, record-breaking growth, projections suggest a potential slowdown
in trade growth for 2026
https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-hit-record-35-trillion-despite-slowing-momentum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKgSr7c_QPs&t=45s
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