The impact
of demographic trends on international relations – including how this relates
to the SDGs, climate change, competition for scarce resources, planetary stress
(‘Earth Overshoot’) and the recent Covid-19 pandemic.
Some background information
Europe
https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/686020/population-of-europe-by-country-and-gender/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/253383/total-population-of-the-eu-member-states-by-country/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate
Demographic growth and climate change
https://www.un.org/en/desa/population-growth-environmental-degradation-and-climate-change
Demographic data
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/food-security-climate-change-feast-famine enough to make one despair! “The world will need to produce about 70% more food by
2050 to feed an estimated 9 billion people”, according
to the World Bank in 2014 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/land-and-food-security1
56%, a lower estimate in 2018, but still huge (World Resources
Institute)
https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts
and currently 60%, according to the
World Bank in 2023
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
https://www.wfp.org/publications/hunger-hotspots-fao-wfp-early-warnings-acute-food-insecurity
A great presentation, though perhaps
over-optimistic, by Prof. Hans Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E
an opposing view:
So is the world overpopulated?
The current world population on 25 October 2024 is estimated to be between
8.08 and 8.18 billion and continues to rise. http://www.census.gov/popclock/
It reached 6 billion 25 years ago in
October 1999 and 7 billion in October 2011 according to the United Nations
Population Fund.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Today's
world population is more than double the population in1973 (3.9 billion). http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
World
population is estimated to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 - 10.8 billion
by 2100 when it should peak and level off. See the video with Hans Rosling
above.
https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population
In 1900 the
world’s population was only 1.6 billion, about a fifth of today’s total. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/worldpopulation.htm
TOP 20 MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES ( 2024)
|
Country (or dependency) |
Population |
Yearly |
|
|
1 |
1,450,935,791 |
0.89 % |
|
|
2 |
1,419,321,278 |
-0.23 % |
|
|
3 |
345,426,571 |
0.57 % |
|
|
4 |
283,487,931 |
0.82 % |
|
|
5 |
251,269,164 |
1.52 % |
|
|
6 |
232,679,478 |
2.10 % |
|
|
7 |
211,998,573 |
0.41 % |
|
|
8 |
173,562,364 |
1.22 % |
|
|
9 |
144,820,423 |
-0.43 % |
|
|
10 |
132,059,767 |
2.62 % |
|
|
11 |
130,861,007 |
0.86 % |
|
|
12 |
123,753,041 |
-0.50 % |
|
|
13 |
116,538,258 |
1.75 % |
|
|
14 |
115,843,670 |
0.83 % |
|
|
15 |
109,276,265 |
3.30 % |
|
|
16 |
100,987,686 |
0.63 % |
|
|
17 |
91,567,738 |
1.06 % |
|
|
18 |
87,473,805 |
0.23 % |
|
|
19 |
84,552,242 |
0.00 % |
|
|
20 |
71,668,011 |
-0.05 % |
For the latest update with further data:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
For a list of the countries with the fastest population growth rates
see:
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/
Are there now too many human beings?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation
There
is the concept of ‘global population overshoot’ which means that the growth in
human population is going beyond the planet’s ability to replenish itself in
terms of resources and a sustainable environment. Some environmental experts
have argued for an upper limit to sustainable human population, with a range of
figures, from 2-3 billion to 7-8 billion. Others argue that it is a problem of
the distribution of resources and the management of the levels and types of
consumption.
https://unric.org/en/environment-2-august-overshoot-day-for-earths-resources/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_population
The scientific
consensus is that the current population
expansion and accompanying increase in our use of the world’s
resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was
ratified by 58 member national
academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers
"unprecedented", and stated that
many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the
time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and optimistic scenarios
predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a figure that current estimates show
has already been reached. The rapid growth in global population thus has
dramatic direct consequences for the number of people in the developing world
(particularly in poor countries in Asia and Africa) who already face or may
soon face starvation, hunger or malnutrition as well as serious consequences
for sustainable global development (given the ultimately finite nature of
fossil fuel reserves and raw materials such as minerals, chemicals and rare
metals) and a range of environmental issues. Though the percentage of people
living in extreme poverty fell up to 2019, the percentage living in relative
poverty remained high. Moreover, a large number of people were living just
above the poverty threshold and were therefore at risk in the event of
environmental or natural disasters and price variations. And with Covid-19 this
is exactly what has happened.
Situation in 2020: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2021/goal-01/#:~:text=Estimates%20suggest%20that%202020%20saw,the%20progress%20made%20since%202016.
Then click on goal 2, 3 and 4
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/
Situation in 2024 https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2024/
Then click on goal 1, 2, 3 and 4.
e.g. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2024/Goal-01/
So the number of people facing extreme poverty, starvation, hunger or
malnutrition actually rose in many low-income countries in 2020. At current
estimates progress towards SDGs 1, 2, 3 and 4 will not be sufficient to meet
the goals by 2030.
The
current overview on poverty according to the World Bank (October 2024)
Global poverty reduction
has slowed to a near standstill, with 2020-2030 set to be a lost decade. At the
current pace of progress, it could take more than a century to eradicate
poverty as it is defined for nearly half the world.
44 percent of the global
population – around 3.5 billion people – live today on less than $6.85 per day,
the poverty line relevant for upper-middle-income countries. The total number
of people living under this poverty line has barely changed since 1990 due to
population growth.
8.5 percent of the global
population – almost 700 million people – live today on less than $2.15 per day,
the extreme poverty line relevant for low-income countries. Three-quarters of
all people in extreme poverty live in Sub-Saharan Africa or in fragile and
conflict-affected countries.
About 72 percent of the
world’s extreme poor live in countries that are eligible to receive assistance
from the International Development Association (IDA). Today, one in three IDA
countries are poorer, on average, than they were on the eve of the COVID-19
pandemic.
Progress on shared
prosperity has stalled since the pandemic, due to slow economic growth and a
divergence in mean incomes. Today, incomes around the world, on average, would
have to increase five-fold to reach the level of $25 per person per day, the
minimum prosperity standard for high-income countries.
Around one-fifth of the
world’s population lives in economies with high inequality, concentrated mostly
in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Only 7 percent of the global
population lives in countries with low inequality.
In half of IDA countries,
the income gap with the wealthiest economies is widening for the first time
this century. Of the 68 IDA countries with data on inequality, less than 15
percent were in the low-inequality group and more than 37 percent were in the
high inequality group.
Climate change poses a
fundamental risk to poverty and inequality reduction. Nearly 1 in 5 people
globally are likely to experience a severe weather shock in their lifetime from
which they will struggle to recover.
Climate change also
threatens to increase global inequality, as poorer countries and people are
likely to suffer more from the negative consequences.
Last Updated: Last Updated: Oct 15, 2024
From
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty
Recent Background
Before the Covid-19 pandemic the
situation was already precarious
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/poor-diets-damaging-childrens-health-worldwide-warns-unicef
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2019-07/holy-see-un-hunger-report-2019-arellano.html
the Covid-19 pandemic, measured in
terms of its effects on the SDGs in October 2021 according to the World Bank:
‘For almost 25 years, extreme
poverty — the first of the world’s Sustainable Development Goals — was
steadily declining.
Now, for the first time in a
generation, the quest to end poverty has suffered a setback.
Global extreme poverty rose in 2020
for the first time in over 20 years as the disruption of the
COVID-19 pandemic compounded the forces of conflict and climate change, which
were already slowing poverty reduction progress. About 100 million additional people
are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic.
In 2018, four out of five people
below the international poverty line lived in rural areas.
·
Half
of the poor are children. Women represent a majority of the poor in most regions
and among some age groups. About 70 percent of the global poor aged 15 and
older have no schooling or only some basic education.
·
Almost
half of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa live in just five countries: Nigeria,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar.
·
More
than 40 percent of the global poor live in economies affected by fragility,
conflict and violence, and that number is expected to rise to 67 percent in the
next decade. Those economies have just 10 percent of
the world’s population.
·
About
132 million of the global poor live in areas with high flood risk.
Many people who had barely escaped
extreme poverty could be forced back into it by the convergence of COVID-19,
conflict, and climate change.
The "new poor"
probably will:
·
Be
more urban than the chronic poor.
·
Be
more engaged in informal services and manufacturing and less in agriculture.
·
Live
in congested urban settings and work in the sectors most affected by lockdowns
and mobility restrictions.
Middle-income countries such as
India and Nigeria will be significantly affected; middle-income countries may
be home to about 80 percent of the new poor.
New research estimates that climate
change will drive 68 million to 132 million into poverty by 2030. Climate
change is a particularly acute threat for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and
South Asia — the regions where most of the global poor are
concentrated. In a number of countries, a large share of the poor live in
areas that are both affected by conflict and facing high exposure to
floods — for example, Nepal, Cameroon, Liberia, and the Central African
Republic.
The newest and most immediate threat
to poverty reduction, COVID-19, has unleashed a worldwide economic disaster
whose shock waves continue to spread. Without an adequate global response, the
cumulative effects of the pandemic and its economic fallout, armed conflict,
and climate change will exact high human and economic costs well into the
future.
The latest research suggests that
the effects of the current crisis will almost certainly be felt in most
countries through 2030. Under these conditions, the goal of bringing the global
absolute poverty rate to less than 3 percent by 2030, which was already at risk
before the crisis, is now beyond reach without swift, significant, and
substantial policy action.
History shows that urgent and
collective action can help us tackle this crisis.’ October 2021 according to the World
Bank
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/coronavirus
https://feature.undp.org/covid-19-and-the-sdgs/
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-covid-19-12-charts
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/
Covid-19 and food security
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/
Look at the graph at the bottom of this page. http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/covid-19-and-global-food-security
climate change and food security
climate change evidence: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
basic facts: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf
before 2020: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-fragile-climate-food.html
and looking forward:
‘COVID-19
caused food insecurity to soar, but climate change will be much worse.’
http://www.fao.org/climate-change/en/
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
climate change and how it affects farming:
https://www.heifer.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-agriculture.html
Demographic growth and food
production
In
December 2018 the World Resources Institute estimated that the world must
sustainably produce 56% more food by 2050 based on 2010 levels https://www.wri.org/insights/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts
Feeding 10 billion people sustainably by 2050, then,
requires closing three gaps:
A 56 percent food gap between crop calories produced in
2010 and those needed in 2050 under “business as usual” growth;
A 593 million-hectare land gap (an area nearly
twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and
expected agricultural expansion by 2050; and
An 11-gigaton GHG mitigation gap between expected
agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global
warming below 2oC (3.6°F), the level necessary for preventing the
worst climate impacts.
(In 2011 the FAO had estimated that the increase needed was 70% on 2009
levels of food production https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty)
Thus, many experts argue that given current population growth forecasts
for the developing world we will need another leap forward in terms of
innovation in farming technology and practices, like the Green Revolution of
the 1960s, simply in order to avoid widespread famine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution (also includes
criticisms)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug (often credited with saving over a billion
people worldwide from starvation).
However, there are fears because increased food production has come at
the price of limited crop variety and biodiversity and has involved an
increased use of pesticides and more pollution. The growing use of agricultural
mono-cultures may not be sustainable in the long term.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/food-system-monocultures-gm-un-diversity-day
https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/rise-and-fall-monoculture-farming
food scarcity, loss and
redistribution, water security
https://awellfedworld.org/scarcity-vs-distribution/
http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-agriculture/en/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_security
https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/
https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/climate-change/
Climate change and its impact on global food production
https://it.usembassy.gov/how-climate-change-affects-the-food-crisis/
The impact of increased food production on biodiversity
https://proveg.org/news/how-food-systems-impact-biodiversity-a-crucial-link/
Meanwhile a different trend is affecting many parts of the developed
world, low fertility rates and an ageing population.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_ageing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy
https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/list-of-countries-by-total-fertility-rate-2023/
The economic effects of an ageing population are varied and there may be
some benefits for economies which are expanding. For example, older people
often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may
spend less on consumer goods. Depending on the age
ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in
lower interest rates and the economic
benefits of lower inflation. Moreover, if the population falls and GDP remains
constant or grows at a very low rate, (e.g. 0.2 % a year) per capita income actually
increases in the short term. Some economists, mainly in Japan, see further
advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity for progress in automation
and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a
need for a shift from concern about GDP growth to the idea of personal
well-being.
However, given the recent economic slowdown in many developed economies (and
the effects and costs of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the
consequent rise in energy prices and inflation) none of the factors above are
likely in the short term to help economies already characterized by high
inflation, low levels of consumer spending and high interest rates. Moreover, population ageing also increases
some categories of expenditure, including some of those met from public
finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, the cost of which is likely to increase
dramatically as the population ages. This would present
governments with hard choices between higher taxes,
including a possible shift from taxes on earnings to taxes on consumption, and
a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education
and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population (there will be
fewer people in school), especially if the economy begins to grow again, as
fewer young people would probably continue into higher education as they would
be in immediate demand as part of the work force. However, with many countries
facing high youth unemployment the numbers in higher education may continue to
grow as may the numbers of NEETs (not in education, employment or training).
In Italy https://www.idealista.it/en/news/lifestyle-in-italy/2023/06/14/229569-italy-is-among-the-countries-with-the-highest-number-of-neets-in-europe#:~:text=Italy%20is%20among%20the%20countries%20with%20the%20highest%20number%20of%20NEETs%20in%20Europe,-Devin%20Avery%20on&text=In%202022%2C%20more%20than%20one,percentage%20points%20compared%20to%202021.
Social security systems have also begun
to experience problems. Predefined benefit pension systems are
experiencing sustainability problems due to increased longevity. The extension
of the pension period by people living longer has not been matched by a rise in
pension contributions and has only been partly matched by an extension of the
active labour period (a raise in the retirement age), resulting in a decline in
replacement ratios. In recent years, many countries have adopted policies to
strengthen the financial sustainability of pension systems, although the
challenges regarding pension adequacy remain. One solution in favour of social
solidarity might be a flat-rate pension (or nearly flat-rate) for all,
regardless of (or with little regard for) the level of pension contributions
made. Another is simply to raise the age at which one receives a pension on
people born later. e.g. This is what is happening in many European countries.
Those who prefer the free market may argue for the gradual abolition of public
pension schemes in favour of the private sector, thus reducing the burden to
the state.
https://www.etk.fi/en/the-pension-system/international-comparison/retirement-ages/
Population growth in developing countries also
increases migration flows, pressure on the allocation of scarce resources
within the country and geographic area and the loss of biodiversity. See:
https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/blog/population-growth-is-drivin.html
https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology/Migration
https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/58952/file/ICMPD_Migration_Outlook_2023.pdf
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2022/08/01/in-developed-countries-migration-is-now-the-primary-driver-of-population-growth_5992145_23.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hotspots-population-growth-areas-high-biodiversity See also the notes on this blog
regarding the EU and migration. Though many migrants are refugees seeking
political asylum, others are economic migrants moving to escape poverty, the
threat of starvation or simply to find better opportunities. Many are described
now as ‘environmental refugees’.
See also older material like:
The New Population Bomb, Jack A. Goldstone, Foreign Affairs Volume 89,
No.1, Jan/Feb 2010
https://www.sneps.net/t/MSc/images/Articles/10Goldstone%20pop%20bomb.pdf
Against the Grain, C. F. Runge and C. P. Runge,
Foreign Affairs Volume 89, No.1, Jan/Feb 2010
http://relooney.com/NS4053/0_NS4053_825.pdf
The Demographic Future, Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign
Affairs Volume 89, No.6, Nov/Dec 2010 http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/68690e7b35d02ba894dda06bcdf415dc/dc_the_demographic_future_eberstadt_foreignaffairs_novdez_2010.pdf
Baby Gap, Stephen Philip Kramer, Foreign Affairs Volume 91,
No.3, May/June 2012
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/baby-gap
How will
current population trends affect international relations?
Some ideas for an essay:
Size of current world population and forecasts for the future / rate of
growth, current trends and the predicted slow-down in rate of growth but only
stabilizing in 2100 / statistics on number of those starving or suffering from
malnutrition, and the number of people now at risk of starvation or
malnutrition in the near future. Look at the situation before the Covid-19
pandemic, since then and how it is evolving today.
Growing pressure on world’s resources and environment / food / water /
shelter / medical care / finite reserves of fossil fuels and raw materials /
the need for recycling on a much larger scale / deforestation / desertification
/ land, air and sea pollution / urbanization / destruction of rural habitat /
endangered wildlife and reduced biodiversity / an increase in carbon and other
emissions /climate change / examples and statistics? / the difficulty of asking
poor countries to make sacrifices in terms of greener policies
Problems for poor countries with high population growth rates / you
could look at all the above-mentioned factors but at a local level by focusing
on the statistics and information for one country or area in Africa or Asia
e.g. the Horn of Africa / also gender issues, e.g.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ETH/ethiopia/population-growth-rate
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1138087
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/horn-of-africa-projections-of-a-famine-in-2023/
https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/
https://www.unicef.org/esa/media/12146/file/Demographic_Fast_Facts_2023%20Update.pdf
And the effects of the
pandemic https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/coronavirus-and-fragility-impact-covid-19-somalias-private-sector
http://www.fao.org/3/cb0198en/CB0198EN.pdf
Challenges for developing countries – At the moment we produce enough
food globally to feed the world’s population. The problem is the use of much of
this food as fodder for animals in meat production, the unequal distribution in
the production of food resources between rich and poor countries and the lack
of infrastructure in developing countries to allow the effective delivery of
food from other regions in normal times, or from outside the country in terms
of emergency aid at a time of crisis.
/unemployment and underemployment (difficulty of creating jobs as quickly
as the population grows) , large disparities in the distribution of wealth
leading to political unrest (and often repression by authoritarian regimes)
with poor, stagnant or worsening living conditions and political instability
- provide examples and statistics for
any of these, e.g. North Africa?
/ an increase in migration from / the country to the city / poor,
overpopulated countries to other slightly less poor, more stable countries / to
wealthier ones e. g. to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states / to North America /
to Europe / remittances sent back home / examples and data for all or any of
these.
/ and as we have now seen, a greater likelihood of the spread of
epidemic diseases and the danger of a pandemic as more people and goods
circulate / the interplay of the Covid-19 pandemic with these different trends.
Challenges for many rich countries – ageing populations / so without
migrants or raising retirement ages
further there will be a reduction in the workforce, and without
continuous technological development and greater automation there will be a
fall in GDP / growing pressure on welfare systems, in particular on the health
care system and the social security and pension system / burden carried by
those in work / countries with declining population levels and low growth rates
may see a similar decline in their influence on world affairs / immigration and
cultural diversity can lead to social conflict instead of harmony and cultural
enrichment / problems of acceptance and integration /educatiob/ security /
terrorism / the interplay of the Covid-19 pandemic with these different issues.
The real and wider problem for the international community is the need
for coordinated cooperation strategies in which all states agree to take part
(and to honour their commitments) in order to overcome a series of long-term
challenges which now seem to be interrelated (as set out in the UN's SDGs):
1) Dealing
effectively with environmental degradation and pollution, protecting wildlife
and biodiversity (any successful examples?)
2) Regulating carbon emissions (and other
shorter-lived atmospheric pollutants) and slowing climate change (describe
current situation) and reducing pollution due to plastics
3) Avoiding
competition for scarce resources like clean water and food and agreeing a more
equitable distribution / avoiding wasting these resources / examples, the water
of the Nile and the countries of North-East Africa / avoiding competition for
fossil fuel reserves and scarce raw materials and rare earths
4) Regulating migration, protecting the rights
of migrants and fostering integration, while enhancing security and
counter-terrorism
5) Rapidly
developing alternative, greener, cleaner and renewable sources of energy
(preferably not bio-mass sources like ethanol which may reduce the food supply)
and reducing waste by using our resources more intelligently.
6) Increasing
and diversifying food production. In 2024 the US produced 31.5% of the world’s
corn and 33% of its soybeans (critics also argue that too much US corn is now
used for bio-fuels), while 30 low-income countries were food-deficit countries.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254294/distribution-of-global-corn-production-by-country-2012/
http://www.worldstopexports.com/soya-beans-exports-country/
How is increasing
and diversifying food production to be achieved? Would better redistribution of resources
be enough or do we need some kind of agricultural/technological revolution?
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2018/03/sustainable-agriculture-and-food-security
There is a debate about the safety of GMOs (genetically modified
organisms) to increase food production and the need for another Green
Revolution or something similar, also but fears about agricultural
monocultures. Better information could be made available to small-scale farmers
through the Global
Open Data for Agriculture and Nutrition IT project.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Open_Data_for_Agriculture_and_Nutrition
8) The need to recognise the Covid-19 pandemic as a global challenge and
to be prepared for similar challenges in the future and to cooperate to respond
to such events effectively.
9)
Encouraging sex education and voluntary birth control, although this is
controversial for some countries and cultures. Point out the dangers of China’s
former one-child policy (female infanticide), now abandoned in favour of a
two-child policy (Oct. 2015) and India’s 1970s’ voluntary sterilization policy
(the poor are more likely to volunteer if there are cash incentives and this is
a form of discrimination).
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/4/10-083329/en/
10) More
importantly, the UN stresses that we should promote and support female primary,
secondary school and higher education and their entrance into the work force in
countries with a rapidly rising population, since the biggest single factors in
reducing fertility rates seem to be education and the empowerment of women.
http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data
In the absence of successful diplomacy
leading to an agreed international approach to these problems, one could expect
to see growing competition for limited resources, conflicts resulting directly
from such competition, mass migrations and policies regarding global challenges
decided on an inadequate, ad hoc, nation by nation basis. In such a scenario we
may all end up as losers, but those most at risk in terms of food, health and
economic security and basic living conditions will be the first victims.
https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/climate-change-turns-african-rivers-epicentres-conflict
https://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/omovalley
https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/global/competition
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2006/sep/01/guardianweekly.guardianweekly1
As Sustainable Development
Goal 17 makes clear, in order to deal with the problems caused or made worse by
population trends a global partnership will be necessary.
https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal17
Read this carefully.
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2024/Goal-17/
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