venerdì 11 ottobre 2024

What are the main questions that need to be resolved in the search for a lasting peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians? Is the two-state solution at risk?

Arms sales and military aid to Israel

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2024/09/03/which-countries-have-suspended-arms-sales-to-israel/

https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-military-aid-for-israel-tops-17-9-billion-since-last-oct-7

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68737412

Recent news

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/07/european-leaders-repeat-calls-for-ceasefire-on-first-anniversary-of-start-of-war-in-gaza

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFLreW8M1a0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjTeTwZ3xFQ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/07/g-s1-26381/hamas-israel-hezbollah-gaza-lebanon

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/abraham-accords-peace-middle-east/

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/01/19/revealed-josep-borrells-10-point-peace-process-for-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict

https://www.eurasiareview.com/22012024-eus-borrell-outlines-10-point-peace-plan-to-end-israel-palestine-conflict/

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/world/2024/01/25/support-for-israel-but-two-state-solution-needed-tajani_0ebe5a25-bbf6-4f79-801b-72e6568f7703.html

UN stance

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155211

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15569.doc.htm

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sgsm22391.doc.htm

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/18/un-general-assembly-overwhelmingly-calls-for-end-of-israeli-occupation

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2676262

China and Russia

https://www.un.org/unispal/document/china-postions-paper-palestineisrael/

https://english.news.cn/20231011/768d241ed4e543b8a6051d0faa1a13c9/c.html

Europe and Italy’s stance

I think this link is the least controversial line to argue in an essay. It sets out the EU’s position and includes most of the basic questions, so I will repeat this link in various places in these notes: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en Remember to look at all the sections, not just the top of the page.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/israelpalestine-statement-high-representative-knesset-resolution-opposing-establishment-palestinian_en

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/01/23/israel-palestine-europeans-unite-to-defend-the-idea-of-a-two-state-solution_6457718_4.html

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/italys-leader-says-she-supports-two-state-solution-for-israel-palestinians/

https://www.esteri.it/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/approfondimenti/2024/10/tajani-ora-si-fermino-tutti-anche-israele-o-la-guerra-sara-abisso-senza-fine/

https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2024/08/israel-palestine-statement-high-representative-on-behalf-eu-support-leaders-egypt-and-qatar-to-conclude-ceasefire-and-hostages-release-negotiations/

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/08/09/statement-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-eu-in-support-of-the-call-by-the-leaders-of-the-us-egypt-and-qatar-to-conclude-ceasefire-and-hostages-release-negotiations/

https://www.esteri.it/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2023/03/israel-palestine-statement-of-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-european-union-on-the-latest-developments/

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/montenegro/borrell-why-palestinian-state-best-security-guarantee-israel_en

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/search_en?fulltext=israel+and+palestinians

https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/interviste/2023/10/tajani-litalia-e-contro-hamas-non-contro-la-palestina-ma-israele-deve-difendersi-il-messaggero/

https://www.esteri.it/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2023/03/joint-statement-by-italy-france-germany-poland-spain-and-the-united-kingdom/

https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Tajani-Italy-is-ready-to-favor-the-political-process-between-Israel-and-Palestine/

https://www.adnkronos.com/italy-reiterates-backing-for-two-state-solution-to-isreaeli-palestinian-conflict_55JRSBhhW017PktsT3leYD

The two-state solution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution

https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/gapal1444.doc.htm

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/biden-pushes-two-state-solution-un-general-assembly

https://www.losservatorio.org/en/civlians-in-conflict/web-review/item/2433-israel-palestine-un-assembly-declares-that-peace-is-a-two-state-solution

https://www.solidar.org/en/news/the-eu-pledges-for-a-two-states-solution-to-ensure-peace-in-the-middle-east

https://eeas.europa.eu/diplomatic-network/middle-east-peace-process/337/middle-east-peace-process_en

The one-state solution

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080094/what-are-the-two-state-solution-and-the-one-state-solution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/one-state-solution-unworkable

https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/09/18/two-states-or-one-reappraising-israeli-palestinian-impasse-pub-77269

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en

Background essay in English and Italian (also for translation work):

http://www.assopacepalestina.org/2017/06/negoziati-senza-fine/ 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/the-real-reason-the-israel-palestine-peace-process-always-fails

Recent background – Biden 2021-22https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/01/opinion-israel-palestine-policy-under-biden/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/world/middleeast/biden-palestinians-israel.html

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-concerned-over-biden-s-stance-on-iran-palestine/2118793

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/03/17/top-u-s-officials-iran-deal-talks-down-to-final-issues-00018241

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/us/politics/iran-nuclear-us-israel-biden-bennett.html

ICC https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/02/1084232

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/icc-sanctions-reversed-biden-478731

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-biden-administration-also-opposes-icc-overreach/

2020-21

https://www.dw.com/en/gulf-leaders-sign-agreement-to-end-qatar-blockade/a-56128295

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_normalization_agreement

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54124996

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_State_of_Palestine

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076152

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel

https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/chronology/middle-east-including-the-palestinian-question.php

2017 to January 2020

On December 6, 2017, US President Donald Trump announced US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the planning of the relocation of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_Jerusalem_as_capital_of_Israel

2018, 70th anniversary of Israel’s founding on May 14th 1948; mourning by Palestinians who regard the same event as their “catastrophe” and observe May 15 as“Nakba Day”; and the transfer of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv on May 14 by the administration of President Donald Trump. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-04/israel-palestine-gaza-violence-is-about-to-get-worse

In December 2018 Brazil’s new President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he would follow the lead of the U.S. and move the country’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-30/bolsonaro-to-move-brazil-s-embassy-to-jerusalem-netanyahu-says

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/events-shook-palestinian-territories-2018-181228140137550.html

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/israel/palestine

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18079996/israel-palestine-conflict-guide-explainer                The United States recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel through a presidential proclamation signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on March 25, 2019.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_the_Golan_Heights_as_part_of_Israel The 'Annexation of the Jordan Valley' is the proposed application of Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley. The idea has been advocated by some Israeli politicians since the Israeli occupation of the West Bank began in 1967, most recently with the 2019 Netanyahu plan.     https://theintercept.com/2019/09/11/netanyahu-hints-trump-peace-plan-will-allow-israel-annex-key-west-bank-territory/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_the_Jordan_Valley

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_annexation_of_the_West_Bank

On 28th January 2020, President Trump announced his peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_peace_plan                                          https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-israeli-army-bolsters-forces-along-jordanian-border-ahead-of-trump-s-peace-deal-1.8464319                 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Gstx-XPt5f61CBHPhKeRtTwTM9GFmSjQ/view https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1844914/trump-insists-israeli-palestinian-plan-has-a-chance-

UN position: https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20460.doc.htm

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080542

https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14225.doc.htm

https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm19969.doc.htm#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20remains%20committed,in%20peace%20and%20security%20within

https://news.un.org/en/tags/israel-palestine

The EU and Italy’s position:

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en

https://www.money.it/Quale-posizione-Italia-guerra-Israele-Palestina

https://www.esteri.it/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2020/01/medio-oriente-italia-per-soluzione-due-popoli-due-stati/

https://www.open.online/2020/01/29/donald-trump-piano-di-pace-usa-israele-e-palestina-posizione-governo-italiano/

https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/eventi/2019/05/italia-e-israele-rafforzano-la-cooperazione-scientifica-e-tecnologica.html

https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2019/01/missione-del-ministro-moavero-in-israele-e-palestina.html

https://ecfr.eu/rome/publication/la-fine-di-oslo-una-nuova-strategia-europea-per-israele-e-palestina/

https://pagineesteri.it/2021/11/05/documenti/storia-le-relazioni-tra-litalia-e-i-palestinesi-tra-cambiamenti-e-nuove-realta/

To watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ojr4hDw-IYQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ux4JU_sbB0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59Rh5aFnGb4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NMwohMhP10

good general background:
http://www.mideastweb.org/nutshell.htm very clear and also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict 

Earlier background - to have some idea of events over the last two decades

President Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, speaking at the UN General Assembly, formally requested full membership for his as yet undefined country on 23rd September 2011. However, the Security Council vote was called off when it became clear that the US would use its veto to block this request. Palestine is recognised by about 130 members of the General Assembly and UNESCO admitted Palestine as a member in October 2011. The Palestinian move at the UN encouraged the international community to try to re-launch direct Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Some experts saw the prisoner swap (18 October 2011) between Israel and Hamas as a positive move in this direction, but talks failed to resume during the summer of 2012 despite international efforts. On September 27th 2012 President Abbas asked the UN to grant Palestine ‘non-member observer state’ (which will allow Palestine to join more UN agencies) and warned that time was running out on a 2-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Israel continues with its settlement policy. In November of that year the UN voted overwhelmingly in favor.
For the current level of international recognition of Palestine see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine

Mar. 16, 2015 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Says No to Two-State Solution on Eve of Election
"Under pressure on the eve of a surprisingly close election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Monday repeated his appeal to right-wing voters, declaring that if he was returned to office he would never establish a Palestinian state... The statement reversed Mr. Netanyahu’s endorsement of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a 2009 speech at Bar Ilan University, and fulfilled many world leaders’ suspicions that he was never really serious about peace negotiations."

New York Times "Netanyahu Says No to Statehood for Palestinians," nytimes.com, Mar. 16, 2015

However, in a Mar. 19 interview with NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Andrea Mitchell, Netanyahu claimed that his pre-election statement was not a reversal of policy, but rather a statement about what is realistically possible in the current situation. In the interview, Netanyahu said, "I don't want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution. But for that, circumstances have to change."

May 13, 2015 - The Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New Treaty "The Vatican officially recognized the state of Palestine in a new treaty finalized Wednesday, immediately sparking Israeli ire and accusations that the move hurt peace prospects.

Associated Press (AP)"Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New Treaty," ap.org, May 13, 2015

Oct. 19, 2015 - Since the beginning of the month, at least nine Israelis have been killed, along with 41 Palestinians, 20 of whom Israeli authorities have identified as attackers. The remaining 21 Palestinians died in clashes with Israeli troops… The violence has been dominated by Palestinian teenagers stabbing Israelis in so-called ‘lone wolf’ attacks and without the political and organizational support that existed during the first and second intifadas."  ABC News, "What's behind Escalating Violence in Israel," abcnews.go.com, Oct. 19, 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict

June 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/france-convenes-international-meeting-on-israeli-palestinian-peace-process-1464949662

October 2017 The Palestinians form a unity government.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/fatah-and-hamas-agree-to-form-unity-palestinian-government-to-end-election-gridlock-moscow-russia-a7533696.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/03/palestinian-government-meets-in-gaza-for-first-time-in-three-years

Israel will not negotiate with a Palestinian unity government if Hamas is involved.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/17/israel-will-not-negotiate-with-palestinian-unity-government-if-hamas-is-involved

On 7 December 2017 Donald Trump defied overwhelming global opposition by recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but insisted that the highly controversial move would not derail his own administration’s bid to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Two days later at the UN ambassadors from Britain, France, Italy, Japan, China and more warned that Trump’s announcement that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is misguided or a threat to peace. Some called it reckless. Other envoys blasted the U.S. shift as a violation of past U.N. Security Council resolutions or possibly of international law.

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-us-officially-recognises-jerusalem-as-israeli-capital-11159134

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/06/us-recognition-of-jerusalem-as-israel-capital-what-it-means

http://www.straitstimes.com/world/clashes-continue-as-us-jerusalem-move-condemned-at-un

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-allies-partners-condemn-trumps-israel-stance-at-the-united-nations/2017/12/08/45ffb8ec-dc4a-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?utm_term=.19642658cfd9

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/convenes-emergency-meeting-jerusalem-decision-171208162736190.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8uxjt5SdB4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc1d30mCHbo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7_HKU01vKE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfqvHzXkfoM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqv6-Aq0ZAw

Italy http://parstoday.com/it/news/italia-i125987-medio_oriente_alfano_non_possiamo_retrocedere_da_soluzione_dei_due_stati    05/12/17

http://www.onuitalia.com/2017/12/07/gerusalemme-la-posizione-dellitalia-rimane-quella-di-sempre-dice-alfano/    07/12/17

EU https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/36910/statement-high-representativevice-president-federica-mogherini-announcement-us-president-trump_en

UN position on Israel and the Palestinians – the two-state solution remains the only acceptable basis for a settlement

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1056412

Italy https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2020/01/medio-oriente-italia-per-soluzione-due-popoli-due-stati.html

https://onu.delegfrance.org/The-two-state-solution-is-the-only-way-to-bring-a-sustainable-peace-to-the

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1576851/middle-east

https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1026871

https://press.un.org/en/2015/gapal1336.doc.htm

So some notes for an essay

Why is a peace settlement to the conflict so important to the international community? 

1) The perceived threat that this conflict poses to the stability of the Middle East and to oil supplies. The risk of an escalation to war between Israel and Iran and the presence of nuclear facilities                                                                                                                         2) The way it affects the West’s image in the Arab world (and in the broader Muslim world)                                                                                                                               3) As a measure of the effectiveness of the UN in resolving international disputes (a basic part of its mandate) and responding to a humanitarian crisis

Possible preconditions or sticking points for the launching of serious negotiations (this should be updated in line with current developments)

1) A truce and then a lasting cease-fire, a cessation of military incursions, bombing, rocket and drone attacks, terrorist attacks and acts of violence to provide time and the right atmosphere to negotiate.

2) Mutual recognition of both people’s right to an independent state (the international community two-state solution).However, Israel wants recognition specifically as a Jewish state (a homeland for the Jews).

(Some commentators argue that the two-state solution is making no progress and think the Palestinians should give up claims to an independent state, ask for unification of the occupied territories with Israel and for full Israeli citizenship for all Palestinians, thus threatening the Jewish popular majority within Israel. The argument goes that Israel would feel so threatened by such a prospect that it would be forced to make concessions on a two-state solution. See ‘The Death and Life of the Two-State Solution by Grant Rumley and Amir Tibon in Foreign Affairs July/August 2015. However, as a realistic prospectthis seems unlikely. Certainly, it is not the position of the international community or the Palestinian movement at the moment).

3) Some kind of good-will gesture on both sides: a release of the Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and the provision of humanitarian aid to civilians in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon

4) A freeze on Israeli settlement building (accepted by the US but no longer by the Israeli government) and a halt to the intimidation and increasing violence by Israeli settlers. This was the most important immediate issue to Palestinians on the West Bank before the start of the current war.

5) A reduction in Israeli road blocks and military outposts on the West bank

6) Israel refuses to negotiate with a 'unified' Palestinian government which includes Hamas because Hamas refuses to recognise Israel's right to exist. So identifying an acceptable Palestinian interlocutor (but one that can control radical Palestinian groups) or a third country to initially speak on their behalf (Egypt? Jordan? The Gulf states?)

Other elements in a potential negotiation

1) Perhaps the model should be the 1998 Northern Ireland Peace Agreement. This would mean starting with the moderates, for the Palestinians, the President and government of the PA (Al Fatah, which recognises Israel), in the hope of making progress and so involving more hard-line groups (Hamas, which does not recognise Israel) later. However, Fatah and Hamas are now cooperating again and to deal with one and not the other might be difficult. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/23/palestinian-rivals-hamas-and-fatah-sign-unity-deal-brokered-by-china

 It is also difficult to see the current government of Israel as in any sense ‘moderate’ and willing to negotiate, compared with the Yitzhak Rabin government of the 1990s which negotiated the Oslo Accords.

2) The need for widespread popular support and consensus building before, during and after talks.This seems the fundamental challenge with both communities seeming radicalized and polarized.

3) Pressure and support from the international community, the UN, the US,  the EU, Russia, China and Arab countries, to start and make real progress with negotiations and offer incentives

4) Should negotiation include other Arab states and other issues (e.g. Jordan and Lebanon as hosts to many Palestinian refugees, Syria because of the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights or is this likely to make things even more difficult.

5) Iran- will the conflict extend directly  to a full Israeli attack on Iran? Will that make negotiations impossible or will there need to be a dialogue and negotiation directly between Israel and Iran?

6) Does there need to be a change of government in Israel to make negotiations possible?

The main questions to be resolved

1) Borders: two states, Israel and a Palestinian state on the West Bank (the problem of the status of the Gaza Strip and Hamas which controls it). Negotiations might begin with the UN Green Line of 1949 and be based on progress made in previous negotiations (e.g. Oslo Accords, 1993). This would also require decisions on existing settlements and what would be done with the settlers (for statistics on the rapidly rising number of settlers see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_settlement  (estimated figures, 220,000 in East Jerusalem and 500,000 in the West Bank (and additionally, over 20,000 Israeli citizens live in settlements in the Golan Heights).

2) the status of Jerusalem, which is claimed by both as their capital and has Holy sites belonging to Judaism, Islam and Christianity. The continuation of Israeli settlement within East Jerusalem https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/palestine-occupied-palestinian-territory-west-bank-and-gaza-strip/2023-report-israeli-settlements-occupied-west-bank-including-east-jerusalem-january-december-2023_en?s=206

There seems to be little space for negotiation on the status of Jerusalem at the moment, so this might have to be the last question to deal with.

3) The full political independence and real economic viability of a Palestinian state – water resources, the Israeli Defence barrier and the damage it did to the Palestinian economy, the port of Gaza, removal of (some, most, all and when?) Israeli road blocks and military outposts on the West Bank, aid from the international community,, the UN, the US?, the EU? And the rich Arab states?.  This question has direct implications for (4) 

4) Future security in the area. This is the crucial issue for Israel, which sees a danger in dismantling its defence barrier and military outposts and then facing new terrorist attacks. Israel wants a peace settlement which is accepted by all the Palestinians (and its Arab neighbours) not with 75% of the Palestinians. Would a compromise also involve the temporary maintenance of some Israeli road blocks and military outposts within the newly created Palestinian state for a certain number of years as a guarantee of security as the Israelis demand?

5) The ‘right of return’ for descendants of the Palestinian refugees of the 1948 and 1967 wars (now estimated at about 4 million people:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_right_of_return ). And where would they return to?

a) Since 1948 many live in refugee camps in neighbouring countries ( e.g. 1.9 million as refugees in Jordan, although if one includes Jordanians citizens of Palestinian descent this figure rises to 2.7 million, almost half the population of the country)

b) Many refugees claim the right to return to places which are now in Israel, not just on the West Bank

c) Alternatives – settlement on the West bank in the new Palestinian state? Or some form of economic compensation? Could some Palestinians be allowed to return to Israel and become Israeli citizens if they have documentary proof of land ownership in the past?

Conclusion

1) Today may be a difficult moment compared to 20 or 30 years ago (the Oslo Accords, 1993, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords and the Taba summit of 2001 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taba_Summit)

with a extremely conservative Israeli government and a fragile and still fragmented Palestinian leadership

https://www.iemed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Urgent-Need-New-Palentinian-Consensus-Barrenada_IEMedYearbook2024.pdf

and a radicalization of positions and aspirations on both sides at the popular level. Or at least, these are the voices we hear at the moment.. Realistically, it is hard to be very optimistic. In fact, some commentators argue that the Palestinians and the Arab world in general continue to regard Israel as a ‘colonial’ outpost (presumably of the West in general or the US in particular), a foreign imposition, and thus at a fundamental level they reject Israel’s right to exist, or its right to exist as a specifically Jewish state, and therefore question the basis of the two-state solution. The Israelis see the foundation of Israel as their ‘return’ to their homeland after 1800 years, and the creation of a necessary safe-haven for Jews after the pogroms of the 19th century and the Holocaust of WWII. They often regard the Palestinians as simply Arabs (who can therefore become citizens of any Arab state) rather than a specific Arab people with legitimate aspirations to their own independent homeland. Whether these views are really held at the popular level or the projections of fears on each side is difficult to assess.

2) In any case, there is a clear need for popular support for any peace process. Political leaders can lead, but a successful peace process would require genuine and growing consensus and support among both populations. Without that basis, little progress can be made. Itt is not clear that there is a genuine desire for peace at the popular level on either side at the moment, at least not if ‘genuine desire’ means accepting the price of compromise and making real concessions. In surveys a narrow majority on both sides says it favours peace, but each thinks it is the other side that must make concessions, not their own.

https://theconversation.com/as-international-support-for-an-independent-palestine-grows-heres-what-israelis-and-palestinians-now-think-of-the-two-state-solution-230575 good information

4) The EU remains committed to calling for a ceasefire, promoting negotiations on a 2-state solution, and providing humanitarian aid.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en

 

Some other useful sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_and_Muslim_countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict

Israel declared its independence in May 1948 and was recognized by the USA and Soviet Union in the same month (by Britain and France in January 1949, Italy in February 1949, and Germany in September 1952). It was admitted to the UN in May 1949 under UNSC resolution 273.The Holocaust certainly played a crucial role in determining the attitude of the West and Soviet Union, and the UN’s recognition of Israel. Despite growing sympathy for the Palestinians and sharp criticism of Israeli actions and intransigence over the last 2 decades the EU continues to stand by Israel’s fundamental right to exist in security and to be an accepted member of the international community and the UN, and it supports direct negotiations leading to a 2-state solution. It is not clear if the Oslo Accord(s) would provide a starting point for negotiations or if the 2 sides would  start from scratch [ ripartire da zero].)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel

http://www.juancole.com/2015/04/worlds-recognize-palestine.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine#UN_member_states

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Position_on_Israeli_issues

Israel's nuclear deterrence

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/israels-newest-and-most-advanced-submarine-is-their-las-1752459324

Negotiations and article for translation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/the-real-reason-the-israel-palestine-peace-process-always-fails

http://www.assopacepalestina.org/2017/06/negoziati-senza-fine/

more on the one-state solution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/palestinian-majority-rejects-two-state-solution-backs-tactical-compromises

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2015/08/palestine-israel-one-state-solution.html

https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-end-of-oslo-a-new-european-strategy-on-israel-palestine/

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/half-palestinians-still-want-all-palestine-most-would-compromise-less

https://eeas.europa.eu/diplomatic-network/middle-east-peace-process_en

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/02/1085922

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/26/us-assures-two-state-solution-for-israel-palestine-at-un


Demographics for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Israel – check the figures

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/newpop.html

world Jewish population

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-population-of-the-world

However, figures for the global and country by country ‘Enlarged Jewish Population’ (a looser

 definition based on ancestry and members of Jewish households are much higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country

see also: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Judaism/jewpop.html

The Palestinians – check the figures

World Palestinian population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians

Palestinian territories

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/palestine-population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Palestinian_territories

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugees

Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt



Is it reasonable for Israel to insist on being a Jewish state? Let’s start with another country:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholicism_in_Saudi_Arabia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Saudi_Arabia#Modern_Era

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/moriel-rothman/israel-is-not-a-jewish-state_b_1603422.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192614417586774.html

https://tikvahfund.org/uncategorized/the-jews-right-to-statehood/

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2011/9/30/why-israel-cant-be-a-jewish-state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Zionism#:~:text=Anti%2DZionism%20is%20opposition%20to,of%20Jews%20to%20self%2Ddetermination.

Israel, the Palestinians and the wider Muslim world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Israel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Israel_and_the_Palestinian_territories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_citizens_of_Israel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeland_for_the_Jewish_people#Jewish_state_or_a_state_of_Jews.3F

http://forward.com/articles/157127/isn-t-israel-already-a-jewish-state/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution#Support_for_one-state_solution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Arab_world#Jordan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_lands

http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-egypts-islamists-must-respect-minorities/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/23/henry-porter-muslim-unrest-prejudice

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_the_apartheid_analogy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/19/britain-duty-to-palestinian-people

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