The 2024 BRICS+ Summit and Russia’s stance
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241022-putin-economic-western-brics-summit
https://brics-russia2024.ru/en/
https://brics-russia2024.ru/en/russia-and-brics/priorities/
!
2024
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brics-expansion-and-the-political-positions/
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-brics-group-and-why-it-expanding
https://academic.oup.com/book/32424/chapter-abstract/268741406?redirectedFrom=fulltext
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/760368/EPRS_BRI(2024)760368_EN.pdf
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/brics-enlargement-and-shifting-world-order
https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/09/the-brics-challenge-to-the-g7-established-international-order/ growing threat?
but https://responsiblestatecraft.org/brics-expansion/
https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/an-expanding-brics-seeks-to-reform-not-replace-the-global-order/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/economic-growth-forecasts-for-g7-and-brics-countries-in-2024/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/
Some points made at the SIOI
conference, 15 December 2023,‘The BRICS and multilateralism’:Intra-BRICS trade is still relatively low, although
they all do a lot of trade with China.
FDIs towards the BRICS are mainly from the West and China.
De-dollarization
(in favour of a new reserve currency, or the Chinese currency or trading mainly
in the currencies of the group) would make them less open to Western sanctions,
fluctuations in the value of the dollar and changes in the interest rate on
their public debts. However, it hasn’t happened yet and seems unlikely. Most
trade in a reserve currency is still in dollars with a slight growth in trade
in the Euro.
There’s a need to change the voting rights quotas at the IMF.
The New Development Bank is not as powerful as the IMF and mainly deals with
economic programs between the members rather than with the poor countries of
the Global South.
The BRICS still have no real institutional structure as an international
organization or founding treaty but regular meetings and cooperation in many
fields.
Is there a kind of irreversible competition or a decoupling (or a new Cold War)
between the BRICS and the G7 (the West/G7+)? Not really, this division was real
in the Cold War, not now. There’s an interdependence in economic terms and in
many others.
So do the BRICS represent a new order or disorder or a fragmentation of the
existing international order? Can the BRICS+ help to reverse this fragmentation
or will they accelerate it?
The main historic change in GDP terms is China’s economic expansion and to some
extent India’s, not that of the others. In PPP terms, however, the total GDP of
the BRICS+ as a percentage of global GDP PPP is now significantly larger than
that of the G7, so the economic institutions need to be reformed to reflect
this: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412425/gdp-ppp-share-world-gdp-g7-brics/#:~:text=The%20BRICS%20countries%20overtook%20the,held%20by%20the%20G7%20countries.
but in nominal GDP terms: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-comparing-the-gdp-of-brics-and-the-g7-countries/
2023
https://www.kas.de/en/brics-plus
https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/02/brics-expansion-five-countries-join-ranks/#:~:text=Saudia%20Arabia%2C%20Egypt%2C%20the%20United,summit%20in%20Johannesburg%2C%20South%20Africa.
https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/no-one-knows-what-brics-expansion-means/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/#:~:text=First%20is%20the%20decision%20on,BRICS%20from%201%20January%2C%202024.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/8/22/can-brics-create-a-new-world-order
https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-leaders-meet-south-africa-bloc-weighs-expansion-2023-08-22/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/28/the-guardian-view-on-brics-demand-for-membership-is-a-symptom-of-global-disorder
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/07/laying-the-brics-for-a-reshaped-global-order/
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-future-of-brics-between-objectives-and-challenges/
Last BRICS
summit declarations
https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-1.pdf
http://brics2022.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hywj/ODS/202207/t20220705_10715631.html
China and Africa
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth
file:///C:/Users/Pc/Downloads/china-note1%20(1).pdf
India and Africa
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africa-india-cooperation-benchmark-partnership/#:~:text=India%2DAfrica%20trade%20has%20grown,the%20European%20Union%20and%20China.
https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1611-45052-india-africa-trade-up-9-yoy-in-fy-2022/2023-to-98bn
https://ris.org.in/newsletter/RIS%20Latest%20Publications/2023/art-4.pdf
The old BRICS economies
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/e408a7e21ba62d843bdd90dc37e61b57-0500032021/related/mpo-bra.pdf
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/661f109500bf58fa36a4a46eeace6786-0050012024/related/GEP-Jan-2024-Analysis-SSA.pdf
(Growth
in South Africa is projected to firm to a still-subdued 1.3 percent in 2024 and then edge up to 1.5 percent in 2025).
BRICS cooperation
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en good balanced view
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-september-2024
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/india-russia-relations
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-latin-america-september-2024
https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202410/18/content_WS67126932c6d0868f4e8ec11a.html
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-africa-september-2024
Voting at the
UN
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brics-expansion-as-non-west-consolidation/
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
The New Development Bank
https://www.reuters.com/world/algeria-authorised-join-brics-bloc-2024-08-31/
https://www.ndb.int/event/ndb-at-the-15th-brics-summit/#:~:text=In%20August%202023%2C%20the%20New,Sustainable%20Development%20and%20Inclusive%20Multilateralism%E2%80%9D.
Disputes and tensions
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en good balanced
view
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/brics-expansion/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/10/three-things-know-about-china-india-tensions
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india-china/334-thin-ice-himalayas-handling-india-china-border-dispute
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/30/india-lodges-protest-with-china-over-map-claiming-border-territory
An alternative world order?
https://www.iris-france.org/186913-brics-towards-a-new-international-order/
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/07/china-xi-jinping-global-security-initiative/670504/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/22/putin-brics-summit-south-africa-trade
How they vote at the UN
https://saiia.org.za/research/a-global-rebalance/
The influence of China and Russia in Africa
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/china-united-front-africa/
https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-criticized-for-abstaining-on-un-ukraine-resolution/6468748.html
Human rights
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/east-asia/china/report-china/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/europe-and-central-asia/eastern-europe-and-central-asia/russia/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/africa/southern-africa/south-africa/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-asia/india/report-india/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/americas/south-america/brazil/
BRICS and economic development
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
https://www.ndb.int/
https://mg.co.za/thought-leader/2024-06-27-alternative-payment-systems-in-africa-and-brics-member-states-can-shift-geoeconomic-dynamics/
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/brics-enlargement-and-shifting-world-order
https://sdg.iisd.org/news/brics-countries-expand-partnership-for-sustainable-development/
what they say
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202410/1321575.shtml
what they say
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/760368/EPRS_BRI(2024)760368_EN.pdf
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/brics-enlargement-and-shifting-world-order
The existing world order
The Bretton Woods Conference of 1944 created the basis for a cooperative global economic system to stabilize the world economy, a system which soon included the United States, Canada, Western European countries, Japan and Australia and later many other states (see the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which was created later in the early 1990s). It expanded to include Eastern European members of the former Communist bloc after the end of the Cold War and the economic change of direction in China. In parallel, the United Nations, created in 1945, was, and is, a second attempt at the Wilsonian vision of a rule-based international political order able to prevent or rapidly resolve international conflicts of the kind that led to the two world wars. The UN is also committed to the protection and promotion of human rights.
Some questions
to consider:
Do the BRICS countries intend to challenge the existing world order?
Do the BRICS intend toundermine, subvert or take control of this
economic/political order?
Or do they want to create a parallel alternative to it or simply to play a
greater role within it?
Do they see the world order as too dominated by the US, the dollar as the
main exchange currency, and its political or military allies?
Do they want a more multipolar system? A less Western-values-based order? Would
this legitimize autocracy? Or a system where state sovereignty is paramount?
Do they share objectives as a group or does each of them have its own goals,
only cooperating when it is to its advantage?
Will its expansion to include other resource rich countries give them the means
to steer the international order?
Does the group represent a threat to human rights? What do the BRICS mean
by human rights?
What evidence can you offer in responding to these questions?
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