mercoledì 11 marzo 2020

How should Italy and the EU respond to the refugee and migrant challenge? How is the situation evolving?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/migration-eu-praises-greece-as-shield-after-turkey-opens-border
Current situation 2019-2020 – legal and illegal immigration, background information
Questions about Italy and the EU's complicity in human rights violations in Libya and Italy's response






What happened in the crisis years
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911 Excellent summary of 2015 situation
and then below for period from 2014 up to and including 2018

Description of the scale of the phenomenon. Estimated number of illegal immigrants coming into the EU in the recent past, last year and so far this year.
More than a million illegal migrants and refugees crossed into Europe in 2015, sparking a crisis as countries struggled to cope with the influx, and creating division in the EU over how best to deal with resettling people. The symbolic milestone was passed on 21 December, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said, with the total for land and sea reaching more than 1,006,000. The figure covers entries via six European Union nations - Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus.

This compares with 72,437 illegal immigrants to the EU in 2012, 107,365 in 2013 and 283,532 In 2014. However, 1,000,000 still represents only 0.2% of the EU’s population of 500 million.
The EU response
According to Frontex this figure fell in 2016 to 503,700 detections of illegal border crossings. This was mainly due to the EU/Turkey agreement, which came into effect in March 2016 and led to tighter border control by the Turkish authorities and readmission of migrants from the Greek islands to Turkey.
The drop was also influenced by tighter border controls in the Western Balkans. However, the number of detections on the Central Mediterranean route (towards Italy) rose by nearly one-fifth to 181, 000, the highest number ever recorded. This reflects a steadily increasing migratory pressure from the African continent, particularly West Africa, which accounted for most of the growth in 2016.
The overall situation in 2017 showed a further drop in numbers, but arrivals by boat in Italy accounted for most of the figure: 119,310 in total, down by a third compared to the previous year, the Italian Interior Ministry said on Dec 31.
EU document on illegal migrants arriving in Italy up to July 2017 :
The Italian response


The Italian Strategy in the Med - 2017

and in 2018, the numbers remained low
failure to reform the Dublin rules and tensions between the last Italian government (5 Stelle/Lega) and the EU and within Italy
https://www.repubblica.it/solidarieta/immigrazione/2018/07/31/news/migrazioni-203075373
2019
A draft agreement and problems
and the new government in 2019
Recent background – EU and Italian developments and policy in 2017
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/italy-prosecutor-says-rescue-boats-contact-people-smugglers/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/03/libyan-military-strongman-threatens-italian-ships-trying-stop/
and NGO rescue boats:
In brief, there was a significant rise in migration towards the EU in recent years, increasing dramatically in 2015-16. Since then the numbers have fallen. Was this a temporary phenomenon or is it a more permanent change? The result of turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa or something more fundamental relating to economic migration from poor and often war-torn countries in Africa, where most of the migrants now come from?
Legal Immigration to EU - Of course we should remember that illegal immigration happens within a wider context of legal immigration and both are important in examining popular reaction inside EU member states. Figures for net legal immigration to the EU from non-EU countries were 748,026 in 2010, 693,660 in 2011, 598,352 in 2012, 539,059 in 2013, suggesting a slight decline over that period. However Frontex estimates that there were already 547,335 people illegally present in the EU in 2014. Many of these were from Syria, Eritrea and Afghanistan, with citizens from these countries representing one third of the total.
Applications for political asylum - The EU 28 received about 626,000 new applications for political asylum from non-EU citizens in 2014 compared with 431,000 in 2013. This number rose to 1,260,000 in 2015 but fell slightly to 1,200,000 in 2016. (Germany’s share of the EU-28 total rose from 35% in 2015 to 60% in 2016) and then a large fall in 2017 to 712,000 and 638,000 in 2018.
The number of first time asylum-seekers in the EU-28 has also decreased since 2016.
The EU Member States granted protection status to 710,400 asylum seekers in 2016, more than double the number in 2015.
This also fell to 300,000 in 2018

So for Italy the illegal migration crisis which overstretched Italian reception facilities and resources in 2015-17 is over for the moment. Only 7,923 arrived between 1 January and 7 October.
although pressure on Greece and Spain is rising. The humanitarian crisis is now in the detention centres in Libya. And this raises the question of complicity in human rights violations.
However, internal EU migration from poorer (e.g. Romania) to richer countries, has already produced serious frictions that may add to tensions between migrants of all kinds and native residents. Xenophobic reactions take various forms. There are accusation that foreigners steal local jobs at a time of recession and obtain welfare payments that they have not contributed to in taxes. Statistically, this seems largely a false impression as foreigners often do jobs that the local population does not want to do and often fail to claim welfare benefits to which they are entitled. However, these concerns about internal EU migration could be dwarfed by non-EU immigration in terms of scale, duration and the social tensions produced if numbers rose dramatically because of a worsening political situation or as a result of climate change.

Another concern is crime:

What problems is the EU facing as a result of illegal migration?

The humanitarian crisis – the situation of migrants who are trying to get here. Human smuggling (and trafficking), massive human rights violation and the responsibility to respond to this crisis. Deaths at sea and human rights violations in detention centres in libya and Turkey.Behind this there is the the challenge of dealing with migant trafficking across Africa and inside Libya.
Structures - The rising numbers were often said to be beyond the capacity and funding of existing infrastructure (e.g. reception centres) and personnel (e.g. coast guard, police, frontier and migration authorities, interviewers interpreters etc…) and the procedures to deal with the migrants (identification, interviewing, temporary accommodation, repatriation if not accepted and more permanent relocation, accommodation and integration if accepted).
Tensions between EU member states - Migrants coming into the EU often cross internal EU borders to move to their preferred destination (often in Northern Europe). This creates tensions between EU member states and has led to growing restrictions by states on free movement within the EU and thus an erosion of the Schengen rules.
Countries on front-line EU external borders (although obviously in a certain sense all countries with ports airports and container ports are on the front line.) e.g. Italy, Greece, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria etc.. have been criticized for not securing their borders by providing effective controls against illegal immigration. This criticism has come from destination countries like Germany, the UK, France, and Scandinavia. These countries, in their turn, are criticized by the countries on the exposed external EU borders for failing to provide adequate economic and material assistance to their partners to help them deal with the problem. For example, Operazione Mare Nostrum in 2013-14, financed at significant expense (9 million euros a month for 12 months) and almost exclusively by Italy, was relatively successful compared with the EU Operation Triton (originally called Frontex Plus) and at first financed at only 3 million euros a month (although it later received €120 million for 2015-2016). Operation Triton was replaced by Operation Themis in February 2018. Mare Nostrum operated also in international waters, Triton‘s mission only covered border control and activity within 30 miles off the Italian coast. However, the European Union Naval Force Mediterranean also known as Operation Sophia made the situation more manageable in international waters.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operazione_Themis
However, real doubts and criticisms about the effectiveness of Operations Themis and Sophia remain. Instead of deterring migration, critics say it simply confines it to Libya, creating a growing humanitarian crisis in the detention centres. While its search and rescue activities have saved lives, does its destruction of boats lead smugglers to put migrants into even less seaworthy vessels? See below #

The Dublin Regulation - This gives primary responsibility for processing asylum applications to the country of arrival. Italy and other front-line countries have called for a revision of the Regulation and asked other EU member states to open their ports to migrants. While the EU in July 2017 recognized the enormous challenge facing Italy and agreed to provide more funds, no further progress was made reform to the Dublin Regulation. In July 2017, the European Court of Justice upheld the Dublin Regulation declaring it still stands despite the high influx of 2015, giving EU member states the right to deport migrants to the first country of entry to the EU. Also in July EU interior ministers refused to support an Italian proposal to open up European ports to ships carrying migrants. In June 2018 a deal was agreed but was heavily criticized as ineffective because it was voluntary and did not include a comprehensive revision of the Dublin Regulation
Read these updates about the relocation scheme carefully
Public opinion in many EU countries – In 2014-15 there was initially a wave of real sympathy for the plight of the migrants on their journey, outrage at their inhuman exploitation by traffickers and smugglers and horror at their sometimes gruesome fate. This was expressed in the generous reaction of governments, NGOs and the public.
At the same time there was growing concern among EU citizens about the rise in immigrant numbers, increasing opposition to this process, fears about cultural clashes, growing numbers of acts of violence against immigrants and refugee centers and a significant rise in support for xenophobic, or at least more nationalist, political parties. This played an important part in the recent elections in Italy in March 2018.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43291390
Criticism of the EU itself – The EU is often blamed and held responsible for the rise in migrant numbers. Calls for withdrawal from the EU have also increased, though it is hard to see how leaving the EU would benefit a country in terms of dealing with illegal non-EU immigration.
e.g. in the Brexit vote Lord Ashcroft's mega-poll of 12,369 voters after the referendum found that one third of Leave voters chose to back Brexit as they saw it "offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders." This was the second biggest motivation for Leave voters, just behind “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”.
In October 2016 Hungary held a referendumon whether to comply with the European Union quota system aimed at solving the migrant crisis, setting the stage for a fresh fight over power-sharing in the 28-nation bloc. Hungarians voted to reject the European Union refugee resettlement plan, but failed to turn out in sufficient numbers to make the referendum legally binding. The Hungarian referendum worried some in Brussels, who fear that a series of national votes on specific issues could unfasten key componentss of EU policy and rules. Senior EU officials have worried that further referendums, above all on a country’s EU membership, could lead to an eventual unraveling of the bloc.
In addition to the June 23, 2016 British referendum, Dutch voters also rejected a sweeping EU trade and political agreement with Ukraine in April,
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/02/europe/hungary-migrant-referendum/index.html
In March 2016, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20–25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.[205] In June 2018, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said he expected Ukraine will join both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation by 2030.



Other countries (e.g. In Eastern Europe) continue to support membership of the EU but seem determined to oppose the EU redistribution quota system for migrants or other openings of this type from within the EU. (The EU Resettlement and Relocation schemes of 2015 envisaged a possible 160,000 resettlements).
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/background-information/docs/2_eu_solidarity_a_refugee_relocation_system_en.pdf
The numbers in this pdf may seem small but only about 35,000 applicationshave been granted.)
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/20170613_factsheet_relocation_and_resettlement_en.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:First_instance_decisions_by_outcome,_selected_Member_States,_1st_quarter_2017_update.PNG
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Distribution_of_final_decisions_on_(non-EU)_asylum_applications,_2016_(%25)_YB17_II.png
There are fears that a failure to agree an effective resettlement scheme could weakem EU unity, cooperation and effectiveness. However, the victory of pro-EU Emmanuel Macron inthe May 2017 French Presidential election boosted hopes for increased EU cooperation. The Italian election results, however, refocused attention on the lack of agreement on migration.
Terrorism - With the terrorist attacks in Paris on November 13th 2015 (and further attacks through 2016 and 2017), there is growing public concern that Arab terrorists may manage to get into Europe by pretending to be refugees. There is also concern about border security regarding European citizens who sympathize with ISIS and go to Syria possibly to train and try to return to Europe to carry out an attack.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/630456/EU-migrant-crisis-shock-poll-two-thirds-Germans-expect-ISIS-terrorist-attack
g) The reaction of the EU is often criticized as slow and lacking coordination while EU member states are criticized as too preoccupied with their own national interests. The atmosphere at the EU talks to agree and introduce the quota system among members to deal with the ongoing crisis was an example of these problems.
For the plan see and reactions see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34193568

The debate at the start of 2016 about whether or not to suspend the Schengen agreement for 2 years was also an indication of the strong feelings involved, as was Austria's decision to temporarily suspend it in January 2016. This has now happened in several EU Schengen area member states (France, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden and Norway):
h) the EU- Turkey deal on refugees and migrants in 2016. This vastly reduced migration pressure through the Balkans and into Greece but increased pressure on Italy. There are also criticisms from human rights groups about conditions for migrants in both Greek and Turkish camps and EU complicity in this situation.

What are the problems for the future?

a) Beyond the continuing human rights crisis there is the question of whether the scale of the phenomenon is temporary, e.g. due to refugees from the civil war in Syria and the situation in Libya, or part of a growing trend towards movement from non-EU states to the EU based on hopes for greater economic well-being and more security and freedom (e.g. from Africa and even Bangladesh).
b) The need to quickly and effectively integrate into society those migrants who are allowed to stay. Many experts argue that many states in the EU with aging populations need migrants as a young and flexible workforce. Others point to the failures in previous integration policies.
c)There is a need to support efforts for pacification and peace-building in the war-torn areas from which the refugees are fleeing. Current efforts (see below) to form a single effective government in Libya and enforce the rule of law by reaching an agreement between all legitimate groups are crucial in any attempt to limit the spread of ISIS and deal with the humanitarian and refugee crisis in Libya at its source.
See also below #
d) There is also a need to provide more funds to UN agencies and NGOs in countries like Syria’s neighbors, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, which are trying to deal with the enormous refugee problem.
e) Whatever public resentment there may be about perceived threats to jobs, at a time of recession and unemployment, and the nation’s ‘culture’, immigrant numbers remain a limited proportion of the population. It is only in certain areas with sudden, high immigrant concentrations that a community may feel overwhelmed and this calls, above all, for better planning and organization in the redistribution of recently arrived migrants.
f) Although most of the EU economies are either just coming out of recession or growing only slowly, the EU’s population generally is aging and young migrants may play an important and necessary role in the economy in the recovery.
g) The migrant challenge is unlikely to go away soon. So the EU and national governments will have to respond to public concerns about immigration while at the same time honoring their legal and moral obligations to deal with the question by providing better-coordinated, better-funded plans on a long-term basis. So far this has not happened.
h) How to deal with asylum seekers who are successful in their application (where should they reside?) and those who are not (repatriation). Indeed, repatriation now seems to be one of the main challenges for the current Italian government as it was for the last.
See below § Dealing with asylum seekers
i) The idea and effectiveness of using military force against the human traffickers.
j) The question of how to protect the Schengen agreement.
k) the deal with Turkey and questions about human rights and whether it is legal
and in the light of the crack-down after the attempted coup
l) agreements between Italy, the EU and Libya's fragile government aimed at containing migration from Libya to Italy and attempts to encourage the formation of a unity government there.

m) The question of identity – beyond fears about whether migrants from outside Europe
and even from some areas of Eastern Europe represent an economic threat to jobs and pay levels, a burden on welfare systems or pose threats to security in terms of crime and terrorism, there is the the question of whether they are seen as an existential threat to the Italian and Western European way of life. The numbers of migrants arriving in Italy have fallen, the fears have not. To what extent can migrants learn to be Europeans in terms of thinking and identity? Can Europeans live with multiculturalism?

More background reading

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_migrant_crisis#2016

See above#
There is also the possibility of a new route:
Poland

Human rights of refugees and migrants in Libya and Turkey:



And perhaps simply of interest? Some Europeans immigrant groups


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