sabato 23 aprile 2022

Is the leadership of the US and the West within the international community coming to an end? And some material about China's changing role within the international community.

US nominal GDP was $25.35 Q4 2021

China’s nominal GDP was $19.91 Q4 2021

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate#:~:text=Current%2Ddollar%20GDP%20increased%2010.0,(tables%201%20and%203).

https://www.imf.org/en/search#q=China%20nominal%20GDP&sort=relevancy

The IMF estimates US GDP growth for 2022 at 3.7%, for 2021 at 5.7% (after a fall of -3.4% in 2020 and an increase of 2.3% in 2019) and for China at 4.4% for 2022, at 8.1% in 2021 (after a rise of 2.3% in 2020 and 6.1% in 2019).

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/WEOWORLD/USA

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/WEOWORLD/CHN

Historically, the U.S. public debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) has increased during wars and recessions and subsequently declined. The ratio of debt to GDP may decrease as a result of a government surplus or via growth of GDP and inflation. For example, debt held by the public as a share of GDP peaked just after World War II (113% of GDP in 1945) but then fell over the following 35 years. In recent decades, aging demographics and rising healthcare costs have led to concern about the long-term sustainability of the federal government's fiscal policies. The aggregate, gross amount that Treasury can borrow is limited by the United States debt ceiling but this was raised in December 2021 to meet the costs of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In February 2022, the public debt of the United States was around 30.29 trillion U.S. dollars, around 2.39 trillion more than a year earlier, when it was around 27.9 trillion U.S. dollars. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273294/public-debt-of-the-united-states-by-month/#:~:text=In%20February%202022%2C%20the%20public,around%2027.9%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars.

This is an estimated 130.65% of forecast GDP in 2022

https://www.statista.com/statistics/269960/national-debt-in-the-us-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government spent trillions in virus aid and economic relief. The government estimated that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 increased to $3.1 trillion or 15% GDP, more than triple that of 2019 and the largest as a percentage of GDP since 1945.

The first year that President Biden budgeted is fiscal 2022, which runs from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022. CBO forecast in July 2021 that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2022 will be $1.2 trillion, or 4.7% GDP. This is a significant reduction to the budget deficits of $3.1 trillion (15.0% GDP) in FY2020 and $2.8 trillion (12.4% GDP) in FY2021, the last two fiscal years budgeted by President Trump. Those two record annual budget deficits were unusually high, primarily due to response measures to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

 

Who holds the US public debt? Most of the debt is held by the public and US federal agencies (see charts).

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124#:~:text=federal%20government%20operations.-,Public%20Debt,and%20holders%20of%20savings%20bonds.

Foreign holders of United States treasury debtaccording to the Federal Reserve and U.S. Department of the Treasury, foreign countries held a total of 7.55 trillion U.S. dollars (24.9%) in U.S. treasury securities as of September 2021. Of the total 7.55 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan held 1.30 trillion (4.3%) and China held 1.06 trillion (3.5%).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

As already indicated Gross Federal Debt to GDP ratio was forecast at 130.65% in the first quarter of 2021 (as of March), a reduction of about 1.97% compared with 2020 (when it was 133.28% of GDP) but still considerably more than the Debt of 113% of GDP in 1945 at the end of WWII.

https://www.google.com/search?q=US+Gross+Federal+Debt+to+GDP+ratio+2022&rlz=1C1PRFI_enIT908IT908&ei=g49jYu6UGI-Rxc8Pnv23wAk&ved=0ahUKEwiu4trkuqn3AhWPSPEDHZ7-DZgQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=US+Gross+Federal+Debt+to+GDP+ratio+2022&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAM6BwgAEEcQsAM6BQghEKABOggIIRAWEB0QHjoECCEQFUoECEEYAEoECEYYAFCZBViAFWDIGmgBcAF4AIABdYgB-wOSAQMxLjSYAQCgAQHIAQjAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz

In the longer-term, the United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP is projected to trend to over 133.46% in 2026.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/269960/national-debt-in-the-us-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

So given its huge public debt, some commentators argue that the US has now begun an inevitable decline as the dominant economic power, a decline that may soon erode not only its economic position but also impact its military dominance. However, according to other experts the relative decline of US power is at least partially exaggerated and can better be seen as an opportunity for Washington to redefine its strategic commitments, renegotiate alliances with its partners and free up resources to relaunch its economy.
  The Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine obviously continue to make all forecasts dubious, so the relatively optimistic predictions for the global economy in 2022-3 will depend greatly on the effectiveness and rapid distribution of vaccines and on containing the effects of the war. Clearly, however, China has weathered the storm in economic terms more successfully so far than its competitors. It could overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in nominal terms by 2030

https://www.voanews.com/a/chinas-economy-could-overtake-us-economy-by-2030/6380892.html

In GDP PPP terms the Chinese economy is already bigger than the US economy (estimated at $30.18 trillion against $25.35 in 2022)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

The credit rating for the US ranges from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rating

The debate between pessimists and more sanguine observers has intensified. The former predict a serious and rapid decline in US influence and the growth of a much more multipolar world strongly influenced by China, while the latter are confident that for the foreseeable future the US will be able to maintain its leadership role in international relations. Moreover, they argue that if we consider the West as a whole, rather than the US alone, then, despite Europe’s continuing economic difficulties, China cannot really hope to achieve dominance in terms of economic and military power. In addition, the world’s principal global institutions are all expressions of the West’s value system and China seems basically to be in the process of joining this system, adapting to it and trying to gain more influence within it, rather than wanting to overturn it or see it collapse as the Soviet Union did.
        So, in spite of the economic crisis in 2008 and the alarming economic challenges of the current pandemic and the war in Ukraine, forecasts of definitive decline seem premature and the US remains the principal power at the center of the international stage.

As for military power, the US military budget still represented 39% of total global military spending, $778 billion in 2021. Global spending was $1.981 trillion. The US still spent more than China, India, Russia, the UK., Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, and Japan combined in 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Moreover, NATO, the US-led 30-member alliance, accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion, of a total of $1.92 trillion (62.5%) for global military spending in 2021

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-defence-spending-the-impact-of-inflation#:~:text=Global%20defence%20expenditure%20reached%20USD1,real%20uplift%20in%202020%20spending.

However, if the military spending of other US allies (e.g.  Japan, Australia, South Korea etc.) is added, this figure rises and suggests that the US remains, at least potentially, the dominant military power in international relations. The US has major military bases in 38 countries (750 including smaller ones in 80 countries) around the world compared with: Russia in 9, France in 14, Britain in 16, India in 5 and China in 3.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive#:~:text=The%20US%20controls%20about%20750,the%20next%2010%20countries%20combined.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases#United_States

So the 2021 figures show the US military budget as roughly 3 times that times of China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Finally, the US was still the world leader for investment in research in 2021 (although China is not far behind), and in the list of the top 20 universities worldwide, between 10 and 14 are American, according to which list you choose to believe. Many others are European and only one or two Asian.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/732247/worldwide-research-and-development-gross-expenditure-top-countries/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/01/20/china-is-closing-the-gap-with-the-us-in-rd-expenditure-infographic/?sh=5ed746aa5832

http://uis.unesco.org/apps/visualisations/research-and-development-spending/

https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2020

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2020/world-ranking#!/page/0/length/25/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats
However, over the last decade, the US share of global GDP (PPP) fell to 15.83 % (2020)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20United%20States,purchasing%20power%20parity%20(PPP).

 while China´s share of global GDP PPP increased to 18.33% (however the EU also accounted for 14.98% of global GDP PPP). As already mentioned, in nominal terms the US remains ahead but at this pace of growth China may overtake US nominal GDP by as early as 2030. So, although US strength is evident, its relative decline is real.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270183/countries-with-the-largest-proportion-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253512/share-of-the-eu-in-the-inflation-adjusted-global-gross-domestic-product/

In fact, in 2021, the country´s reliance on imports, combined with its growing debt and its huge military expenditure since 9⁄11 as it expanded its military and counter-terrorism operations around the world, inflated its annual budget deficit which stood at 8.6% of GDP for the 2011 fiscal year. After significant spending cuts it returned to its historical average relative to the size of the economy (around 3% of GDP) registering 2.4% in 2015. After that the annual budget deficit began to rise again, 3.1% in 2016, 3.4% in 2017, 3.8% in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019 and 15.0% with the pandemic in 2020 (twice the rate recorded during the recession in 2009). It has now returned to 4.7% for 2021-2.

https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

On the other hand, GDP PPP per capita (both nominal and PPP) clearly indicates that in 2022 American citizens are still far richer than their Chinese counterparts (5 times (nominal) and 3.5 (PPP) times richer).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Per capita income is usually a good indicator of how much money governments can generate in taxes for government projects at home and abroad.

Moreover, the Chinese authorities may face some obstacles as they try to steer their economy away from a model where growth is based on exports to one where domestic consumption plays a much greater role. These problems include growing debt within the Chinese economic system, potential domestic unrest, continuing high levels of savings and fast-growing but relatively low domestic consumption, an aging population (which will become a significant factor in the next 20 years), a still relatively weak health care system and widespread corruption. As China moves to respond to these challenges its labor costs are likely to begin to rise.

https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/reform-horizon-chinas-weak-social-safety-net#:~:text=When%20compared%20to%20economically%20developed,relatively%20weak%20social%20welfare%20system.&text=Economists%20estimate%20as%20many%20as,and%2040%20million%20by%20May.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-faces-its-biggest-covid-challenge-since-the-dark-days-of-wuhan-12566569

https://www.discoursemagazine.com/culture-and-society/2021/06/09/the-china-challenge-a-demographic-predicament-will-plague-the-mainland-for-decades/

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-GRAPHIC/0100315H2LG/#:~:text=China%20has%20little%20overseas%20debt,ability%20to%20manage%20the%20situation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt-idUSKCN1UD0KD

https://warontherocks.com/2021/12/could-chinas-massive-public-debt-torpedo-the-global-economy/

However, according to the World Bank, more than a third of the debt of poor counties is owed to China

https://www.devex.com/news/china-is-owed-37-of-poor-countries-debt-payments-in-2022-world-bank-102463#:~:text=Economic%20development-,China%20is%20owed%2037%25%20of%20poor%20countries'%20debt,payments%20in%202022%3A%20World%20Bank&text=Of%20the%20%2435%20billion%20that,according%20to%20the%20World%20Bank.

https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-much-money-does-the-world-owe-china

The reputation of the Chinese model and its soft power has also been damaged by growing domestic repression

https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/east-asia/china/report-china/

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/china-and-tibet

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/02/09/can-china-turn-the-tides-and-mend-its-reputation/

https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/china-is-making-support-for-democracy-a-crime-in-hong-kong/

https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/carrie-lams-departure-signals-a-further-crackdown-in-hong-kong/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps

https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/the-underlying-politics-of-poverty-alleviation-in-tibet/

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/global

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/ChanakyaCode/growing-dissent-against-chinese-president-xi-jinping/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest_and_dissent_in_China

Are we facing the start of a new Cold War as Russia and China work more closely together?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53104730

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/New-cold-wars-emanating-from-Russia-China-put-Asia-on-edge

China holds very large foreign exchange reserves, particularly in dollars, although these have declined over the last year to March 2022. As stated above, in 2021, of the total $7.55 trillion of US public debt held by foreign countries, Japan held 1.30 trillion (4.3%) and China held 1.06 trillion (3.5%).

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

The US long accused China of currency manipulation, keeping the Yuan/Renminbi at a low exchange rate value in order to boost exports, but it has risen and continues to rise in value.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/analysts-2022-outlook-chinese-yuan-2021-12-02/

https://statrys.com/blog/will-rmb-appreciate#:~:text=According%20to%20Trading%20Economics%2C%20the,Yuan%20to%20increase%20moving%20forward.

The Yuan/Renminbi is now increasingly popular for global payments

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/yuan-s-popularity-for-global-payments-hits-highest-in-six-years

Meanwhile, China is the principal stake-holder in the BRICS’ New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). China is also the main trading partner for Africa and an important investor in Africa (with the EU and to a lesser extent, the US). Trade with Africa fell dramatically in the first quarter of 2020 but has now rebounded. Will this strengthen support for China in Africa, not only as an economic investor but also as a political ally?

https://www.iisd.org/articles/chinese-investment-africa-bilateral-trade-decline#:~:text=China%20has%20been%20Africa's%20largest,in%20the%20African%20services%20sector.

https://www.statista.com/chart/26668/main-import-countries-sources-africa/

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-02-23-money-for-africa-how-the-eu-and-china-are-trying-to-win-affection-on-the-continent/

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3164200/trade-boom-china-makes-africa-one-worlds-strongest-performers

https://qz.com/africa/2154820/why-is-the-us-fixated-on-chinas-rise-in-africa/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-African_relations#:~:text=China%20has%20been%20Africa's%20largest,Coronavirus%2Dinduced%20drop%20in%20volume.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/african-opportunities-in-china-africa-relations/

https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/what-did-chinas-flurry-of-african-engagements-have-to-do-with-ukraine/

https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/chinas-presence-in-africa-is-at-heart-political/

And with its Belt and Road Initiative China is set to become a major investor and source of investment capital for many developing countries, which will increase both its economic and political leverage with these countries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

The US has imposed a series of sanctions on China, for economic, political and human rights reasons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_sanctions_against_China#:~:text=The%20executive%20order%20prohibits%20all,44%20Chinese%20companies%20were%20identified.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/2021-u-s-sanctions-year-in-review-1657396/

under President Trump there was a trade war between the US and China. President Biden has reversed many but not all of those tariffs

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/china-tariffs-biden-policy/index.html

High levels of personal savings are thought to represent one of the most striking characteristics of the Chinese economy

http://www.voxchina.org/show-3-125.html

While consumer spending still only amounted to 37.8% of GDP in Dec 2020, compared with more than 68% in the US

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/private-consumption--of-nominal-gdp#:~:text=China%20Private%20Consumption%20accounted%20for,an%20average%20share%20of%2049.6%20%25.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA

investments stood at a very high level estimated at about 41.6% of GDP (IMF for 2021). The US stood at 22.3%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1197064/china-total-investment-as-gdp-share/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20total%20investment%20of,other%20countries%20in%20the%20world.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/investment--nominal-gdp#:~:text=United%20States%20Investment%3A%20%25%20of%20GDP,-1947%20%2D%202021%20%7C%20Quarterly&text=United%20States%20Investment%20accounted%20for,an%20average%20ratio%20of%2022.4%20%25.

Along with massive investments in industrial infrastructure (a good indicator of future competitivity) there has also been a rise in property prices in urban, industrial areas with significant social consequences.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/chinas-new-home-prices-perk-up-demand-big-cities-rises-2022-02-21/

Moreover, the Chinese government is now having to try to cope with the rising demand for social services by shifting resources from other kinds of investments to welfare.
      China is rapidly increasing investment in technology, particularly in IT, and education. US companies operating in China have registered very high productivity levels while benefiting so far from much lower labor costs. However, there are now signs that as labor flows from rural areas begin to slow and demand for skilled workers rises, labor costs in China are now beginning to rise though they obviously remain below levels in the US and Europe. This may lead some companies to relocate but it is also a sign of the strength of the Chinese economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/chinese-wages-rise-made-in-china-isnt-so-cheap-anymore.html

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/wage-growth-in-china-2020-how-to-read-the-numbers-region-industry-trends/#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20wages%20in%20the,RMB%20108%2C132%20(US%2416%2C865).

What if the US chooses not to lead?

This is a more difficult question to respond to, especially given the role of isolationism in US history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_non-interventionism#Between_the_World_Wars

The US seemed to have partially retreated from world affairs under President Trump.  President Trump's foreign policy stance sounded isolationist at times (the Paris climate agreement, the Mexican border, comments about NATO partners, withdrawal from the Iran deal, the ban on Muslim visitors to the US from some Islamic countries, US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the“TPP”, the reintroduction of tariffs on a wide range of goods, the withdrawal of more troops from Syria and Afghanistan), but hard line at others (its position on China, supporting Israel, against terrorism, against Iran, against Maduro in Venezuela, withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty). Certainly, Trump’s foreign policy was more unilateral, much more based on narrowly perceived national interests and involved much less consultation with US allies. In contrast, President Biden wants the US to return to cooperation and consultation and its traditional role, but to just what extent is not clear yet since it faces the constraints of the domestic pandemic crisis and an expanding national debt.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/biden-foreign-policy-restraint-circumstance-not-design

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/12/trump-foreign-policy-strategic-unpredictability-adversaries-allies/

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/americanism-not-globalism-president-trump-and-american-mission-0

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2019-01-18/trumps-foreign-policy-no-longer-unpredictable

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2017/january/US-Withdraws-From-TPP

A re-evaluation and reduction in US strategic commitments in some areas in order to exercise more influence in others seems likely. After the fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the European continent lost relevance in the eyes of America as the threat level was reduced. However, events in Ukraine in 2014 and growing tension with Russia forced a review of this policy and the launching of NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence mission.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, has clearly brought, the US, NATO and the EU together

https://www.freiheit.org/nato-g7-and-eu-come-together-show-western-unity

The US formally withdrew its last 'combat troops' from Iraq in December 2011 and from Afghanistan in December 2014. It reduced its presence in both countries to 2,500 at the end of 2020.

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2473884/us-completes-troop-level-drawdown-in-afghanistan-iraq/

The Biden administration’s withdrawal of the remainder of its troops from Afghanistan in 2021 led to the collapse of the government and the return to power of the Taliban

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/15/world/taliban-afghanistan-news

The future of Obama's pivot to Asia is unclear but there has been a build-up of US naval forces in the Western Pacific in response to North Korean threats and perceived Chinese 'expansionism' and Trump talked of a 'free and open Indo-Pacific ' region with the US not seeking domination but rather a partnership with strong, independent nations willing to play by the rules, see the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act. Will President Biden pursue a new pivot to Asia?

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/06/1043329242/long-promised-and-often-delayed-the-pivot-to-asia-takes-shape-under-biden?t=1650704703189

https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/trumps-post-pivot-strategy/

https://www.csis.org/analysis/asia-reassurance-initiative-act-reassuring-australia

https://www.dw.com/en/can-president-joe-biden-return-the-us-pivot-to-asia/a-56337037

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), colloquially the Quad, is a strategic security dialogue between AustraliaIndiaJapan, and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries. The diplomatic and military arrangement was widely viewed as a response to increased Chinese economic and military power, and the Chinese government responded to the Quadrilateral dialogue by issuing formal diplomatic protests to its members, calling it the "Asian NATO"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue#:~:text=The%20Quadrilateral%20Security%20Dialogue%20(QSD,by%20talks%20between%20member%20countries.

China is aware of the policy being adopted by the US and clearly sees it as an attempt to undermine its growing influence in the region. Tensions over developments regarding Taiwan are also indicative of the frictions which are perhaps inevitable as a rapidly growing regional power challenges a global power whose resources, while vast, are now limited. If China continues to grow at current rates but fails to democratize and develop towards the Western model, then a strengthening of security ties between China’s neighbors, many of which are democratic states is a likely response to safeguard independence and shared values. Other smaller, non-democratic neighbors of China may be drawn towards cooperation with the US simply to balance the influence of China (e.g.  Vietnam).

https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/08/what-does-vietnam-think-about-americas-indo-pacific.html
 More importantly, the combined economic resources (in terms of GDP) and military resources of the West (NATO in its narrowest sense, perhaps the OECD in its widest sense) as a whole is and will remain far beyond the capacity of China to challenge. US military spending alone is three times that of China (2021). Certainly, China’s power and influence is going to grow both regionally and globally, perhaps in partnership with Russia at the UN and through the BRICS group. However, there may be an alternative scenario to confrontation. China is a major stakeholder in the current international order, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, an important WTO and IMF member, and, above all, as a state holding large foreign currency reserves and one which also has growing overseas investments (estimated to have reached $1.23 trillion by 2019).

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-foreign-direct-investment/

 So even though China may continue to stand on its sovereignty and use nationalist rhetoric that defies international comment (on issues such as human rights in China, its lack of democracy and the situation in Tibet) as interference in its domestic affairs, it is probable that its stake in the existing global order will continue to grow and that, although it may try at times to make the liberal order rather less liberal, it will, nevertheless, have good reason to adopt a policy of accommodation and cooperation rather than one of confrontation.

In the end perhaps it is the definition of what we mean by the ‘West’ that is of paramount importance in today’s world. Once that meant Europe and North America, plus countries like Australia and New Zealand. It would be difficult today not to include Japan. And then there is the OECD. More importantly, it is the core liberal democratic values enshrined in the main global institutions from the UN down which best define the West. These are values which many countries (Brazil, India, but many more in Latin America and Africa and Southern Asia) and not only the richer, developed ones but developing ones too, have invested in, or are investing in, and which increasingly represent the normative political expectations (how things should be) for ordinary people all over the world. The wave of democratization in the 1990s and at least part of the political hopes expressed in the early days of the Arab Spring suggest that the West in this sense is very much alive and flourishing, with or without US leadership. And a ‘West’ which is global and multipolar, rather than simply a US-led NATO, may be a very positive evolution. Strangely, al-Qaeda and Islamic State, in describing the UN and other international agencies as agents of Western cultural imperialism may simply be acknowledging the extent to which once-Western values are now becoming universal.

In the last few years, we have witnessed a rise in nationalism and authoritarianism

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/understanding-global-rise-authoritarianism

but this is likely to be a response to and protest against the excesses of globalization, rather than real disillusion with or disaffection from democracy and civil rights. Those who doubt the attraction of the West’s cultural model should perhaps pay more attention to the number of migrants and refugees for most of whom the West remains the preferred destination in terms of their hopes for prosperity, security and freedom.

Note – the West in modern English is not normally used as a synonym for European colonialism (I think this is mainly because European colonialism – often based on slavery and doctrines of racial superiority – is now seen as something clearly in contrast with many basic, modern Western values). It is mainly used in international relations to refer to those countries evolving towards liberal democracy and a free (today usually mixed) market economy, from the late 18th century, through the 19th century and up to 1945. Since the end of the Second World War, it has been used to describe first NATO and other allies outside NATO (like Australia) and then gradually to include all those countries which generally embrace Western values.

More background material
US economy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

China is responding to the US presence in the Pacific and has expand its economic cooperation in the Pacific, first by signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership

and now by applying to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Sept 2021

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/china-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-pact-to-boost-economic-clout/#:~:text=BEIJING%2C%20Sept%2016%20(Reuters),bolster%20its%20clout%20in%20trade.

It can thus present itself as a promoter of free trade agreements. Simultaneously, China is carrying out a diplomatic initiative in Central Asia with the goal of reestablishing the old “Silk Road”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Belt_One_Road_Initiative

This initiative has led to wider cooperation with many countries, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, aimed at creating a safe-area for international trade and at ensuring gas and oil supplies to China, which are extremely important to China’s industrial production. This initiative has also led to competition between China and the EU for influence in the region and for gas and oil supplies. However, this competition may actually lead to cooperation between China and the EU in Central Asia, in terms of building new pipelines, which could have both Europe and China as final delivery points.               

As China has become more involved in the international community from an economic point of view, some political cooperation has followed. In recent years, Chinese military personnel have taken part in UN missions in Cambodia, the Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Sudan and Lebanon. In 2015, a combat deployment was sent to South Sudan, where China has significant oil investments. In addition, China’s navy has actively participated in the anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2113436/china-completes-registration-8000-strong-un

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-gosset/china-us-relations_b_1998484.html

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-un-mission/

https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/notes-de-lifri/asie-visions/chinas-military-deployments-gulf-aden-anti-piracy-and

Basically, the expansion of China’s economic interests around the world has led to growing political awareness among the Chinese leadership of the need to protect those interests and engage on international issues, especially those closely related to international security. This has resulted in China playing a more active role within the international community. This trend culminated with the agreement signed with Djibouti concerning the creation of China’s first real military base abroad in order to secure trade between China and Africa. However, in the Middle East region, China has taken a carefully balanced position in the dispute between Sunni and Shia Muslims and between their main sponsors, namely Saudi Arabia and Iran. In fact, the publication of China’s Arab Policy Paper shows that the China wants to adopt a global approach to the Islamic world without taking sides. Such a policy will make it possible for China to deal with both Saudi Arabia and Iran to obtain from both parties an agreement on oil supplies, which is fundamental for China’s economic growth. It also explains China’s willingness to act as a mediator between the US and Iran (which resulted in the 5+1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran and in the lifting of economic sanctions) and in the Syrian civil war.

Potential areas of disagreement between China and the West

As mentioned above China’s neighbors are worried about its expansionist ambitions in the East Asian area e.g. the dispute over the Senkaku Islands, located in the South China Sea and claimed by both China and Japan.

China is the world’s biggest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions. And the US its second biggest. Although China took part in a series of international conferences and welcomed the agreement at the Climate Conference, CoP21, in Paris in December 2015, and made a joint commitment with the US in 2021,

https://www.state.gov/u-s-china-joint-glasgow-declaration-on-enhancing-climate-action-in-the-2020s/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20and%20China,the%20value%20of%20continued%20discussion.

many countries remain doubtful about China’s commitment to making real changes, given that the agreement is not binding in any practical way.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-contradictions-climate-leadership

China’s domestic human rights record has worsened in recent years, including the use of the death penalty and repression of political and religious opposition leaders, critics and dissidents (Hong Kong) and discrimination against minorities (e.g. Tibetans and Uyghurs and Christians).

https://qz.com/993601/china-uyghur-terrorism/

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/06/12/chinas-dangerous-ethnic-policies-in-xinjiang/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/at-least-120000-muslim-uighurs-held-in-chinese-re-education-camps-report

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-rejects-neighbors-claims-south-china-sea-asian-ministers-warn-escalating-2043337

http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345#!/p31345

http://fortune.com/2016/01/19/taiwan-tsai-ing-wen-china/

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Tensions-Renew-Between-Vietnam-and-China-Over-South-China-Sea-20150518-0003.html

http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/china-and-climate-change-three-things-to-watch-after-paris/

http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/china

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/07/29/china-new-hong-kong-law-roadmap-repression

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-repression-uyghurs-xinjiang

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/31/tibet-china-repression-xinjiang-sinicization/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelinaochab/2021/05/05/are-christians-in-china-next-in-line-for-re-education/?sh=230325304fb2

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