The BRICS is an international political association of leading emerging economies, arising out of the inclusion of South Africa in the BRIC group in 2010. As of 2022, its five members are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. With the (partial) exception of Russia, the BRICS are all developing or newly industrialized countries (often called ‘emerging markets’ or ‘emerging economies’, although at this point China, for example, has clearly emerged!) with very high growth rates between the end of the 1990s and 2010. They have large and till recently fast-growing economies and significant influence on regional and global affairs. The five BRICS countries represent 26.7 % of the world’s land area. As of 2021 they represented 40% of its population (3.23 billion, but mainly China and India)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/254205/total-population-of-the-bric-countries/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20it%20is%20estimated,percent%20of%20the%20world%20population.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09749101211067096

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

They accounted for 24 per cent of nominal global gross domestic product and 16 per cent of global trade (based on World Bank data (2019)

https://brics2021.gov.in/about-brics#:~:text=BRICS%20is%20an%20important%20grouping,share%20in%20the%20world%20trade*.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/brics-a-powerful-voice-of-developing-nations-must-become-even-stronger-pm-121090901259_1.html

https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/how-the-ilo-works/multilateral-system/brics/lang--en/index.htm

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13600818.2022.2033191

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255800/WHO-CCU-17.05-eng.pdf;sequence=1

and were estimated to provide 45% of its workforce in 2017. In 2015 they also accounted for around 55% of the output of emerging and developing economies. Members of the G20,. The combined GDP of BRICS countries as a percentage of global GDP almost tripled from 7.9% in 1990 to 22.3% in 2015. The BRICS accounted, on average, for 56% of the growth of global GNP (at 2005 $PPP) during 2008-17. However intra-BRICS trade flows are considered low at only 10.6% of the total foreign trade of these countries (2017). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

Their economies are said to be complementary rather than similar, since China and India are industrial and service producers, while Russia and Brazil are major energy and raw materials suppliers. Russia is also a major grain exporter. However, economic complementarity is limited by the low level of intra-BRICS trade mentioned above. Clearly their percentage of global GDP is likely to continue to grow in the long term, although other developing countries may achieve even faster growth rates. The BRICS group may expand its membership in response to this.
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/failure-to-welcome-new-members-could-render-the-brics-association-irrelevant-heres-why (very good)

As we have seen, given their enormous populations the BRICS have relatively low average per capita income (particularly India) with large numbers of people still living in poverty. According to OECD figures, with easy credit, rising commodity prices and favorable demographics (i.e. cheap labor) the BRIC(S) economies grew at a rapid pace from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, while central banks in developed markets were printing cash and lowering interest rates to breathe some life into their sluggish economies, Gross Domestic Product in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, expanded by 7.5%, 4.5%, 10.5% and 10.4% respectively.

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/statistics

However, the BRICS were eventually hit by the economic crisis of 2008 as it reduced demand in developed economies. GDP growth rates for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 (with the Covid-19 pandemic) and 2021, 2022 forecast according to the IMF were:

Brazil -3.8%, -3.4%, 0.7%, 1.4%, 1.1%, -4.1%, 5.2%, 1.5%

Russia -2.8%, -0.2%, 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, -3.0%, 4.7%. 2.9% (before the war in Ukraine)

India 8.0%, 7.1%, 6.7%, 7.3%, 4.2%, -7.3%, 9.5%, 8.5%

China 6.9%, 6.7%, 6.8%, 6.6%, 6.1%, 2.3%, 8.0%, 5.6%

South Africa 1.3%, 0.3%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7%, -6.5%, 5.0%, 2.2% https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021

So China’s growth has cooled significantly from the double digits rates of previous years but continues to be strong. India was still doing well until the pandemic and is forecast to recover strongly. South Africa was growing at a very modest rate. However, Russia and Brazil have been in serious difficulty and went through recession even before the pandemic, due to falling oil and commodity prices and inflation (15.8% in Russia in August 2015, and 5.2% in January 2021, and 9.5% in Brazil in August 2015, and 4.5% in December 2020. Interest rates in Russia stood at 7.5% in September 2018 and 4.25% in December 2020, and 6.5% in Brazil in September 2018 and 2% in December 2020. Russia is now facing further sanctions from the US and EU and other countries as a result of the Ukraine crisis. Soaring oil and prices are good for Russia (and potentially bad for China) although the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine are threatening Russia’s economic stability. Rising commodity prices and for food and raw materials should benefit Brazil’s exports but, together with the rise in fuel prices, will increase pressure on the poor in the BRICS countries 8e.g. India)

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/cpi-inflation-highest-in-1-5-yrs-poor-bear-maximum-burden-as-food-and-edible-oil-prices-continue-to-soar/articleshow/90812408.cms

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/charting-the-global-economy-commodities-fuel-yet-more-inflation

For the BRICS (with the exception to some extent and in different ways of China and India, this is all in contrast to previous performance between 1995 and 2010.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate

However, according to various sources, prospects (if we exclude events like the war in Ukraine) for the BRICS’ future long-term growth, appear good and, compared with many of the most developed economies, two of the BRICS, China and India are still doing very well. (We will need to see if significant long-term gaps in growth rates open up between the BRICS members.) Moreover, if their economies slowed down simply as a result of the world recession in 2008 and pandemic in 2020 and if the global economy starts to recover, their growth rates may return to previous levels. On the other hand, some experts argue that they may face real challenges relating to structural problems within their domestic economies and political systems. See:

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/economic-survey-key-challenges-concerns-indian-economy-7749804/

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview#1

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/brazil-market-challenges

https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/

https://carnegiemoscow.org/2021/11/24/coming-deluge-russia-s-looming-lost-decade-of-unpaid-bills-and-economic-stagnation-pub-85852

https://www.ilfoglio.it/economia/2022/02/24/news/di-tutti-i-brics-la-russia-e-quella-che-piu-ha-disatteso-le-aspettative-3727054/

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/18/russian-economy-facing-massive-structural-challenges-central-bank-says-a76992

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/12/22/structural-reforms-can-ease-china-s-transition-to-high-quality-growth-report#:~:text=Three%20challenges%20stand%20out%3A%20first,and%20the%20private%20sector%3B%20and

We should also note that some other developing economies may out-perform the BRICS in terms of rapid GDP growth over the next decade. There is the ‘N 11’ group, the ‘Next Eleven’, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam according to Goldman Sachs. However, they too now face serious economic problems.

There are also the TIMPS, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines, a group which in 2010 was beating the BRICS by almost every economic measure. There are also the MINTs, an acronym coined for a group of four countries—Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. Will such countries be invited to join the BRICS group at some point or are they in competition with the group’s members? Will they really be able to sustain GDP growth? The BRICS Plus initiative seems to suggest that the BRICS group could one day expand

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/goldman-s-next-11-markets-are-sinking-even-faster-than-the-brics

At all events, the BRICS group is here to stay and clearly represents a growing movement towards a more multipolar world economic order and since the BRICS summit in New Delhi in 2012 various goals have been outlined:

The reform of global economic governance – They want to move forward with the ongoing revision of the quota mechanism for governance of the IMF, revision of voting rights in the World Bank, and revision of global economic governance in general in order to reflect the growing economic weight of developing countries and emerging markets.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2016/eng/quota.htm

https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/14/12/21/IMF-Quotas

https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789811202308_0015

Trade and Development – They would welcome a new global reserve currency as a reliable alternative to the dollar and to achieve greater independence from the dollar. This might even be a cryptocurrency:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/can-brics-dedollarize-the-global-financial-system/0AEF98D2F232072409E9556620AE09B0

http://theduran.com/brics-talks-create-crypto-currency-another-blow-us-dollar/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-07/anti-dollar-axis

They want to boost intra-BRICS trade using their own currencies (instead of dollars) in order to compensate for any drop in demand due to a global future recession or falling US/EU demand (and protect their national currencies from financial crises or financial sanctions), and to link up their stock markets.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-calls-integrating-brics-payment-systems-2022-04-09/

https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/economy-policy/how-rupee-ruble-trade-mechanism-is-shaping-up-122032800039_1.html

but https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128

In 2012, they examined the idea of setting up a new development bank, whose aims would include funding development and major infrastructure projects initially in BRICS countries, but later in developing and least developed countries too; lending, in the long term, during global financial crises such as the Eurozone crisis; and issuing convertible debt, which could be bought by the central banks of all the member states and hence act as a means of risk-sharing.

Foreign policy line – In 2012 at the New Delhi summit, then President of China Hu Jintao described the BRICS countries as defenders and promoters of developing countries and a force for world peace. At the summit the BRICS criticized the West’s pressure on Iran and its attempts to convince other countries to restrict their trade with Iran, and said that dialogue was the best way to resolve the nuclear question. The group took a similar position on Syria, against military intervention, and in general emphasized the dangers of a war in the Middle East and the fact that it would immediately lead to a rise in oil prices. The deal with Iran was welcomed by the BRICS but Russia itself moved to intervene in Syria.

http://www.cfr.org/brazil/brics-summit-delhi-declaration/p27805

At the BRICS summit in Durban in March 2013, further progress was made with the approval of the plans to create the development bank. Russia, Brazil and India agreed to contribute $18 billion to the BRICS currency reserve pool, China $41 billion and South Africa $5 billion.)

At the July 2014 sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil the group signed a document to create the $100 billion funded New Development Bank (NDB) and a reserve currency pool worth an additional $100 billion to help make currency transaction more diversified, stable and predictable and to act as “a kind of mini-IMF”. The NDB opened in July 2015. The NDB’s headquarters are in Shanghai, the institution's first president is from India, the bank's first regional office is in Johannesburg, the inaugural chairman of the board of governors is from Russia and the first chairman of the board of directors was from Brazil. The presidency, with a term of five years, will rotate among the members of the BRICS. However, the BRICS’ NDB may be overshadowed by the other new Chinese-based multilateral lender, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is headquartered in Beijing. China is its biggest shareholder with about 30%, according to the legal framework signed by 50 founding member countries. It opened for business on 16 January 2016. Major European and Asian economies, including Germany, Italy, Britain, France, Russia, Australia, and South Korea have joined the AIIB, but the US and Japan, two of the world’s largest economies, have declined to do so. Some Chinese leaders have also talked of the need to prepare for a 'de-Americanized' world economy. However, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei played down the competitive aspect (2015). And prospects for cooperation between the banks seem good https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/20170401_001.html The new banks could offer an alternative to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank and can be seen not as competition to the existing system but as complementary and a way for China to reinvest productively some of its vast $3.408 trillion foreign-exchange reserves (August 2021). See China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ below. In 2017 the NDB moved ahead with 4 projects in China, Russia and India with loans totaling more than $1.4bn. The scope of the NDB’s activities includes renewable energy, information technology, energy conservation, flood control, water quality and developing the rural drinking water supply. Going forward, another $30bn in loans, for a total of 15 projects by the end of 2017 and up to 50 by 2021 was announced.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/brics-new-development-bank-four-sustainability/ http://ndbbrics.org/

https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NDB-Strategy.pdf

https://www.ndb.int/about-us/essence/our-work/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

https://www.ft.com/content/cc7c7ee6-918b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0

http://sd.iisd.org/news/new-development-bank-opens-for-business/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/asian-infrastructure-inve_b_7717540.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/mar/28/brics-countries-infrastructure-spending-development-bank

The 2015 BRICS summit was held in Ufa in Russia. The summit coincided with the entry into force of constituting agreements of the New Development Bank and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a framework for the provision of support through liquidity and precautionary instruments in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures.

The 2016 BRICS summit was held from 15 to 16 October 2016 in Goa, India. It condemned terrorism, recognized the difficulties for the group created by the global recession and underlined the importance of cooperation with and work within traditional global institutions like the WTO.

There was some controversy over the issue of terrorism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8th_BRICS_summit#Controversy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/narendra-modi-mothership-of-terrorism-pakistan-brics-goa

The 2017 BRICS summit in Xiamen, China helped to reduce tensions between China and India over the Doklam border issue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_China%E2%80%93India_border_standoff

The summit approved a three-year action plan (2017-2020) for cooperation innovation and agreed to promote the development of BRICS Local Currency Bond Markets and jointly establish a BRICS Local Currency Bond Fund, as a means of contribution to the capital sustainability of financing in BRICS. The BRICS grouping continued to push for cautious reform of global order but in its final declaration made it clear that it did not wish to weaken the institutions of the international order and reaffirmed the BRICS' commitment to the UN and the G20, globalization, sustainable development and the fight against climate change.

http://www.postwesternworld.com/2017/09/07/leaders-declaration-analysis/

The 2018 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa released this declaration https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/30190/10th_BRICS_Summit_Johannesburg_Declaration

and Chinese President Xi Jinping said:

“It is important that we continue to pursue innovation-driven development and build the BRICS Partnership on New Industrial Revolution (PartNIR) to strengthen coordination on macroeconomic policies, find more complementarities in our development strategies, and reinforce the competitiveness of the BRICS countries, emerging market economies and developing countries.”

http://www.atimes.com/article/how-brics-plus-clashes-with-the-us-economic-war-on-iran/

He also discussed the BRICS Plus initiative.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/28/c_137352893.htm

The 2019 BRICS summit was held at the Itamaraty Palace in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and saw members reaffirm their commitment to cooperation on a range of topics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/11th_BRICS_summit

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/15/c_138555948.htm

The 2020 BRICS summit was originally scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg from July 21 to 23, 2020 but was changed to a video conference held on November 17 due to the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_BRICS_summit

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/17/c_139523088.htm

The 2021 BRICS summit was held in New Delhi, India on 9 September.

https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/09/15/brics-summit-2021-roundup-analysis/#:~:text=Global%20Reform,is%20more%20receptive%20and%20effective.

Other Points

The border dispute between India and China continued.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484

China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.

Will China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ be an opportunity for the BRICS to invest and work together, or a way for China to dominate its neighbours and partners?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf

https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/11/25/china-belt-and-road-projects-value-now-exceeds-us4-trillion/

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2059436418792339#:~:text=Due%20for%20completion%20in%20the,South%20Asia%20to%20the%20Middle

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211054128

So do the BRICS represent a fundamental change in the world order either today, or in the near future or in the long term?

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/brics-20-years-on-a-success-or-failure-52410

https://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/jim-oneill/will-brics-ever-grow

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-24/BRICS-Summit-in-China-to-focus-on-new-era-of-global-development--18Fe1TYbYOI/index.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/

https://www.affarinternazionali.it/archivio-affarinternazionali/2020/12/da-una-crisi-allaltra-il-rilancio-del-gruppo-brics/

Few doubt that the influence of these countries will continue to grow. After all, as emerging economies, their growth rates have often been much higher than those that the developed economies have averaged over the last 20 years and although all of them (though China to a lesser extend) have faced economic difficulties with the Covid-19 pandemic and national challenges, their prospects for the long-term future remain good. So the real question is whether Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa form a coherent group with a coherent set of interests which are clearly opposed to those of the traditional ‘West’ or not. In other words, are all of these countries really outside the ‘West’ if we do not restrict the meaning of the term ‘West’ to a synonym for NATO or fully developed economies? Are they a challenge to the West’s leadership of the existing international order, or even to the order itself, or will all or some of these countries simply become a more integral part of it?

Much of what the BRICS aim to do with regard to trade and development, as outlined above, should simply be welcomed by the West and the rest of the international community in the UN. Many Western NGOs and UN agencies have been working towards these development goals for decades, but with limited resources and limited success. A new reserve currency alongside the dollar would make the international financial system more stable and provide a further global lender of last resort, while the creation and growth of the New Development Bank should provide a way for a country like China to reinvest its surplus in various local and global projects. How realistic all this is in the short term is, however, less clear given the structural weaknesses of the Russian, Indian, South African and Brazilian economies and some fears about China's growing total debt.

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html

Population trends within the BRICS also differ significantly. The population of China continues to grow, but continues to slow (0.47% in 2018, 0.43% in 2019, 0.30 in 2020) and is predicted to reach 1.45 billion in 2030 and then to go into decline with an already aging population. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-s-population-will-peak-at-1-45-billion-around-2030-says-government/story-RO1snkgzMEUkmK8VR9HssO.html

India’s population is youthful and expanding at 1.0% in2020 annually and will probably overtake China as the world’s most heavily populated state by 2024. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/UN-says-Indias-population-will-overtake-China-in-seven-years-41088.html

Brazil’s population growth rate was also high in previous years but fell to 0.80% in 2013 and remained there, 0.79% in 2018, 0.73% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020.

Meanwhile the population in South Africa grew by I.37% in 2018, 1.33% in 2019 and 1.30% in 2019.

Since 2015 population growth in the Russian Federation has been in decline and is now in negative figures, -0.01% in 2018 and -0.05% in 2019, -0.2% in 2020 (see notes below#). These trends impact GDP growth rates and social welfare costs in the future, making forecasts difficult to make and suggesting growing divergence among the members of the group.

Commentators also point out that there are already real differences and potential divisions and weaknesses among the group’s members which will inevitably affect the coherence and effectiveness of the group in responding to any particular issue, and the ultimate objectives of each of its members. Here are a few of them:

Russia and China are permanent members of the UNSC with veto power. They initially did not seem in a hurry to support India, Brazil and South Africa with more than words in any bid to obtain permanent seats on the Council and do not support attempts to reform the SC by eliminating or reducing the scope of the veto power.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-ambivalent-on-g4-call-for-unsc-reforms/articleshow/49137968.cms

https://www.rt.com/news/315510-un-security-council-reform/

The Durban Declaration included this sentence:

“In this regard, China and Russia reiterate the importance they attach to the status of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN.”

http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/international/brics-has-weak-stand-on-indias-security-council-aspirations_73022.html

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-bid-for-a-permanent-seat-at-the-un-security-council-suffers-blow-1206727

This seemed to stop short of unconditional support for seats on the UNSC for Brazil and India, but in August 2015 Russia finally expressed clear support for permanent seats for Brazil and India:

http://in.rbth.com/world/2015/08/15/rusia-supports-applications-of-india-brazil-for-permanent-membership-in-un-sc_390367

The BRICS Xiamen summit declaration in 2017 stated that "China and Russia reiterate the importance they attach to the status and role of Brazil, India and South Africa in international affairs and support their aspiration to play a greater role in the UN."

https://www.firstpost.com/world/china-underplays-russias-backing-for-indias-permanent-membership-of-unsc-advocates-package-solution-that-accommodates-all-parties-7916861.html

https://www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/china-russia-to-help-rest-of-brics-members-play-bigger-role-in-un/50000260-3369252

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/oct/06/russia-reiterates-support-for-indias-permanent-seat-in-un-security-council-1881691.html

Russia and China do not automatically support the extension of the veto to India and Brazil.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-will-become-permanent-member-of-un-security-council-sushma-swaraj-1678206

Would a permanent seat without a veto now be acceptable to the G4?

unsc-permanent-seat-india-and-other-g4-countries-ready-to-forgo-veto-for-now-if-granted-membership-3323572.html

However, while Russia now clearly supports India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, China is more ambivalent since India's bid is linked to Japan's in the G4.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/oct/06/russia-reiterates-support-for-indias-permanent-seat-in-un-security-council-1881691.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-unsc-alliance-with-japan-biggest-mistake-chinese-media/articleshow/49042814.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/major-differences-among-un-members-over-indias-permanent-membership-in-unsc-china/articleshow/73304888.cms?from=mdr

Moreover, Russia and China may continue to use their position and their vetoes primarily to forward their own interests, as they perceive them, rather than the interests of the BRICS or the interests of the majority of developing nations in the General Assembly. For example, from the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 China and Russia were ready to block any resolution on Syria by the SC (like that proposed by the Arab League in Feb. 2012 and approved by the UNGA by 137 votes to 12 with 17 abstentions, which could have opened the door to outside intervention) or simply called for the current regime to step down. In contrast, when Russia decided to launch its own air strikes into Syria in September 2015, at the invitation of President Assad, it is not clear if it first informed and coordinated its action with its BRICS partners and sought approval from them. Russia has used its veto to block criticism of the Assad regime or of its own intervention. Currently China

Supports Russia and the Assad regime

https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-plays-long-game-syria

India accepted Russia’s intervention but argues that any long-term solution must be political. http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/heres-what-india-thinks-about-russian-air-strikes-in-syria/

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/imposing-external-solutions-will-not-resolve-syrian-conflict-india-at-unsc-122022600295_1.html

China is, of course, a one-party state with regional ambitions, perceived as a threat by several of its democratic and non-democratic neighbors who have turned to the US for support. Russia is, although formally a democracy, an authoritarian state and one with substantial military power. By contrast, Brazil, India and South Africa are all functioning (or dysfunctional!) democracies, with a variety of problems relating to poverty, but sharing many ‘Western’ values. However, Brazil’s President, Jair Bolsonaro is a populist authoritarian leader who has expressed admiration for Putin and is accused of trying to undermine democracy in Brazil. India has border disputes with China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-07-20/india-s-faceoff-with-china-is-a-sign-of-the-future

and is also involved in the dispute over the status of Tibet (a ‘domestic’ Chinese issue for the Chinese, as is Taiwan). So while the BRICS appear to represent a calming force in international relations, in favor of conflict resolution through dialogue and against military intervention and regime change, something that the West, or at a least large section of Western public opinion, probably welcomes after the long, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is not clear that this respect for every nation’s sovereignty (and implicitly the right of a state to repress its own citizens with impunity) will be universally accepted and approved of by public opinion around the world, by all the members of the UNGA and by public opinion within the democratic BRICS themselves. Military intervention for humanitarian purposes remains a subject of heated debate within, as well as between countries, experts and ordinary people. Some argue that a situation like Syria requires international action. Others argue that the humanitarian costs of intervention may easily outweigh the gains. Given Russia's intervention in Syria it would have been an oversimplification to see this as a division between an aggressive NATO and a peaceful BRICS. Opinion in the West was always divided over the operations in Afghanistan, in Iraq and in Libya. After Russia's intervention in Syria, it is interesting to see the reaction of its BRICS partners and the level of cooperation between Russia and France (after the Nov. 2015 terrorist attack on Paris), the EU, the US and other regional powers like Turkey. The article below highlights the pragmatism that often seems to shape the foreign policy of each of the BRICS. https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id-moe/11354.pdf

Each of the BRICS also faces serious domestic challenges, mainly relating to the Covid-19 pandemic, widespread poverty, inequalities of wealth and corruption. At the same time there are rivalries between them and wide variation in their economic performance and political focus.

Read these articles:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/03/we-have-abandoned-the-poor-slums-suffer-as-covid-19-exposes-indias-social-divide

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/apr/25/unequal-russia-is-anger-stirring-in-the-global-capital-of-inequality

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54476934

https://borgenproject.org/south-african-poverty-and-covid-19/

https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/is-brics-losing-its-shine-for-china/

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/covid-19-magnifies-brics-divergence-as-china-solidifies-lead-61053247

And these challenges, together with growing regional commitments by its members may take precedence over the BRICS' aspirations to play a more global role in international relations as a group. For example, Brazil in 2015 saw widespread protests by the poorest sections of society, with people saying that they had not benefited from GDP growth, that money had been wasted on the Olympics and World Cup and calling for the government to do something about economic inequalities and widespread bribery and political corruption. This scandal led to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the arrest of former President Lula and contributed to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as President in October 2018, a candidate whose right-wing rhetoric has proved divisive.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/07/crowds-in-sao-paulo-block-lula-from-handing-himself-in

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election

Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric may not have helped Brazil in purchasing medical supplies and equipment need to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/bolsonaro-in-china-shop-spats-worsen-brazils-pandemic/1883204#

Now in 2022 political tensions in Brazil are rising with the prospect of the coming presidential election this year.

https://time.com/6130308/bolsonaro-brazil-2022-election/

One of South Africa’s main challenges, perhaps the main one, is corruption

https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/in-south-africa-covid-19-has-exposed-greed-and-spurred-long-needed-action-against-corruption#

https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-president-stands-on-solid-ground-in-the-fight-against-corruption-150305

Meanwhile, many commentators argue that the change in the world order is really a result simply of the rise of China (or at most China and India) rather than the BRICS as a whole. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/11/23/commentary/world-commentary/brics-falls-chinas-sway/#.WolLNVrwZdg https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2017/09/20/india-not-china-is-now-central-to-the-future-of-the-brics/?sh=3ac814a75d1e

https://www.economymagazine.it/cgtn-china-leads-global-vaccine-cooperation-as-brics-enters-the-15th-year/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/254281/gdp-of-the-bric-countries/

Finally, one should note that the BRICS are not really like the old Communist bloc, which defined itself by its opposition to the West and to capitalism. (Perhaps politically it has so far been more similar to the old Non-Aligned Movement of the Cold War period, of which India was a member – at least until Russia’s increasingly proactive foreign policy). Economically, there is no clear division between the ‘West’ and the BRICS. In both groups we find a range of approaches to managing the economy, those that adopt a more free-market approach, those that belief in government supervision and those that believe in a welfare state – and varying proportions of all three. Politically, as with the rest of the world, the BRICS countries have their national interests and will no doubt seek to protect them, but there is no basic ideological division between the West and the BRICS regarding economics. (China is hardly recognizable today as a ‘Communist’ state in terms of economic policy. China and Russia are authoritarian states but they are part of an international community based fairly solidly on Western liberal free-market and democratic values that they do not wish to challenge publicly (although they may violate them) and which shows no real signs of losing its appeal to the majority of people around the world. Brazil, South Africa and India are active supporters of this community’s values. As indicated previously, Bolsonaro is a populist authoritarian figure who has aligned with Putin but is currently running behind former president Lula da Silva in the polls (April 2022).

In fact, optimistic commentators hope that both Russia and China will conform to those values in the long term, evolving slowly towards a more democratic and rights-based society. This at least is the position of all those who favour cooperation, where possible, over confrontation. In their opinion, a more multipolar world with a more diffuse leadership does not necessarily mean a weaker West, but perhaps simply a more inclusive and wider definition of that idea. At the same time, we may see the BRICS acting together on crucial economic issues, and also negatively to block, discourage or restrain what they may see as Western adventurism as regards military interventions (perhaps proposed ‘for humanitarian purposes’) in other countries, but much less able to agree a positive, proactive line in foreign policy due to their different political systems. Their cooperation could prove valuable in areas where the US is no longer willing to get involved. During the Trump administration the BRICS remained supporters of efforts to save the Iran deal.

Other experts point to the reaction of its BRICS partners to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. They have called for restraint by both sides and a peaceful solution to the conflict, in line with the traditional policy of the BRICS, but abstained from votes criticizing Russia for invading an independent sovereign state. Such tacit support for Russia may be ideological on China’s part, in favour of authoritarian government, but economic on the part of India and South Africa, both wanting to secure their energy supplies. Brazil’s position may reflect Bolsonaro’s sympathy for authoritarianism but also a desire to cooperate with Russia as an energy supplier.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-03-27-south-africa-pursuing-major-gas-deal-and-russia-wants-in/

China may also be trying to quietly help Russia by offering an alternative to the SWIFT payment system

https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline/

and by continuing its energy imports, but problems with infrastructure make it unlikely that China will be able to increase these imports in the short term.

So cooperation among the BRICS may be less a question of principle and more one of a general opposition to political interference or sanctions from a Western-led or dominated international community and a determination to have greater influence and freedom in the economic field within the international community and its institutions. Beyond that, however, each member of the BRICS may simply want the freedom to focus on its own priorities in foreign policy with or without its BRICS partners. India, for example, is also part of the QUAD group, aimed at containing China’s increasing military presence in the Indo-Pacific area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialogo_quadrilaterale_di_sicurezza

https://it.usembassy.gov/the-quad-advancing-peace-and-prosperity-in-the-indo-pacific/

Extra notes

# According to http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

in 2022, the population of Russia is 146,046,225

The population hit a historic peak at 148,689,000 in 1991, just before the breakup of the Soviet Union, but then began a decade-long decline, falling at a rate of about 0.5% per year due to declining birth rates, rising death rates and emigration. The decline slowed considerably in the late 2000s, and in 2009 Russia recorded population growth for the first time in 15 years, adding 23,300 people. Key reasons for this were improving health care, changing fertility patterns among younger women, falling emigration and steady flows of immigrants from the ex-USSR countries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Population_statistics

With the 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in a move condemned by many countries as illegalRussia occupied additional territory with 1,965,200 inhabitants.New citizenship rules allowing citizens of former Soviet countries to gain Russian citizenship have gained strong interest among Uzbeks. So the population could return to levels seen just before the breakup of the Soviet Union as well as resolve problems of statelessness, although population growth has now declined to slightly below zero growth again. The article below argues that Russia’s problem is not demographic but the failure of its economic and political system to meet its people’s needs.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/02/russian-demographics-and-power-does-the-kremlin-have-a-long-game/

Trade between the EU, Russia and the other BRICS

file:///C:/Users/HP/Downloads/n13_challenges_and__opportunities_en_5586%20(1).pdf

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_2332

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/eus-new-russia-sanctions-steel-luxury-goods-jet-fuel-and-more.html

The future

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/brics-future-challenges-multilateralism-66053/

https://theconversation.com/brics-needs-a-new-approach-if-its-going-to-foster-a-more-equitable-global-order-84229

https://www.pressenza.com/2020/11/brics-2020-achievements-and-future-challenges/ https://mg.co.za/article/2019-11-15-00-use-brics-to-help-build-a-better-country/

was there, and is there now, any truth in this article?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/the-global-economic-balance-of-power-is-shifting

Summits