I think this
link is the least controversial line to argue for an essay 8the EU’s position)
and includes most of the basic questions, so I will repeat this link in various
places in these notes: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en
Remember to
look at all the sections, not just the top of the page.
The
two-state solution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/gapal1444.doc.htm
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/biden-pushes-two-state-solution-un-general-assembly
https://eeas.europa.eu/diplomatic-network/middle-east-peace-process/337/middle-east-peace-process_en
The one-state solution
https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080094/what-are-the-two-state-solution-and-the-one-state-solution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/one-state-solution-unworkable
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en
Excellent background
essay in English and Italian (also for translation work):
http://www.assopacepalestina.org/2017/06/negoziati-senza-fine/
Recent
events in and around the area:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_normalization_agreement
https://www.dw.com/en/gulf-leaders-sign-agreement-to-end-qatar-blockade/a-56128295
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54124996
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_State_of_Palestine
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076152
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel
https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/chronology/middle-east-including-the-palestinian-question.php
Biden through 2021-22: https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/01/opinion-israel-palestine-policy-under-biden/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/world/middleeast/biden-palestinians-israel.html
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-concerned-over-biden-s-stance-on-iran-palestine/2118793
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/us/politics/iran-nuclear-us-israel-biden-bennett.html
ICC https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/02/1084232
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/icc-sanctions-reversed-biden-478731
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-biden-administration-also-opposes-icc-overreach/
Some
background from 2017 to January 2020
On
December 6, 2017, US President Donald Trump announced US
recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of
Israel and ordered the planning of the relocation
of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_Jerusalem_as_capital_of_Israel
2018, 70th
anniversary of Israel’s founding on May 14th 1948; mourning by Palestinians who
regard the same event as their “catastrophe” and observe May 15 as“Nakba Day”; and the transfer of the U.S.
Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv on May 14 by the administration of President
Donald Trump. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-04/israel-palestine-gaza-violence-is-about-to-get-worse
In December 2018 Brazil’s new President,
Jair Bolsonaro, said he would follow the lead of the U.S. and move the
country’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/israel/palestine
https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18079996/israel-palestine-conflict-guide-explainer
The United
States recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel through a presidential proclamation signed
by U.S. President Donald Trump on March 25, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_the_Golan_Heights_as_part_of_Israel
The 'Annexation of the Jordan Valley' is the
proposed application of Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley. The idea has been
advocated by some Israeli politicians since the Israeli occupation of the West Bank began
in 1967, most recently with the 2019 Netanyahu plan. https://theintercept.com/2019/09/11/netanyahu-hints-trump-peace-plan-will-allow-israel-annex-key-west-bank-territory/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_the_Jordan_Valley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_annexation_of_the_West_Bank
On 28th
January 2020, President Trump announced his peace plan for Israel and the
Palestinians
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_peace_plan https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-israeli-army-bolsters-forces-along-jordanian-border-ahead-of-trump-s-peace-deal-1.8464319
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Gstx-XPt5f61CBHPhKeRtTwTM9GFmSjQ/view
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1844914/trump-insists-israeli-palestinian-plan-has-a-chance-
UN position: https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20460.doc.htm
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080542
https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14225.doc.htm
https://news.un.org/en/tags/israel-palestine
The EU and Italy’s
position:
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en
https://www.money.it/Quale-posizione-Italia-guerra-Israele-Palestina
To watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ojr4hDw-IYQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ux4JU_sbB0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59Rh5aFnGb4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NMwohMhP10
good general
background:
http://www.mideastweb.org/nutshell.htm very clear and also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
Earlier background - to have some idea of events over the last decade
President Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, speaking
at the UN General Assembly, formally requested full membership for his as yet
undefined country on 23rd September 2011. However, the Security
Council vote was called off when it became clear that the US would use its veto
to block this request. Palestine is recognised by about 130 members of the
General Assembly and UNESCO admitted Palestine as a member in October 2011. The
Palestinian move at the UN encouraged the international community to try to
re-launch direct Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Some experts saw the
prisoner swap (18 October 2011) between Israel and Hamas as a positive move in
this direction, but talks failed to resume during the summer of 2012 despite
international efforts. On September
27th 2012 President Abbas asked the
UN to grant Palestine ‘non-member observer state’ (which
will allow Palestine to join more UN agencies) and warned that time was running
out on a 2-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Israel
continues with its settlement policy. In November of that year the UN voted
overwhelmingly in favor.
On July 30th 2013 US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that
Israel and the Palestinians had started direct negotiations and made a
commitment to serious dialogue over the next 9 months, with talks aimed at
reaching a lasting settlement and resolution of all the outstanding questions
by 29th April 2014. Little
real progress seems to have been made during negotiations despite the release
of 3 batches of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Various proposals for
land exchange seem to have been made and discussed, but on many of the key
issues neither side made significant concessions. For example, on 6 November,
Israeli negotiators said there will not be a Palestinian state based on the
1967 borders and that the Separation Wall will be a boundary. Israel also made no commitment to accepting
the right of return for all Palestinian refugees and the Palestinians repeated
their refusal to recognize Israel as a specifically Jewish state. Abbas
dismissed this demand, pointing out that the Palestinians had already agreed to
recognition of the State of Israel, both in 1988 and in the 1993 Oslo Accords.
He added that neither Jordan nor Egypt, with whom Israel had made peace treaties,
had been asked to recognize Israel's Jewish character. He said the Palestinians
would never accept Israel as a 'religious state' since, it would damage the
rights of Israel's Palestinian minority and “to accept it now as a Jewish state
would compromise the claims of millions of Palestinian refugees (to return)
whose families fled the fighting that followed Israel's creation in 1948 and
were not allowed to return."
The Israeli government made the release of a fourth batch of prisoners
conditional on an extension of the negotiation deadline beyond April but went
ahead with approval of plans to build further homes in the settlements on the
West Bank. It was reported that Abbas then set 3 conditions for extending peace
talks beyond the April 29 deadline; that the borders of a future Palestinian
state be dealt with during the first three months of the extended talks, a
complete freeze on all settlement construction, and the release without
deportation of the fourth batch of Palestinian prisoners, including
Israeli-Arabs. On 23 April 2014, the rival Palestinian
factions Hamas
and Fatah
agreed to form a unity government and hold new elections.
Netanyahu said Abbas would have to choose between peace with Israel and peace
with Hamas while Palestinian officials said it was an internal matter and peace would be reinforced by uniting the
Palestinian people. Israel then suspended peace talks, saying it "will not
negotiate with a Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a terrorist
organization that calls for Israel's destruction".
On 12 June 2014, three Israeli
teenagers were kidnapped in Gush Etzion, in the West Bank, as they were hitchhiking
to their homes. The Israel Defense Forces
initiated Operation Brother's Keeper in search of the three teenagers. As part
of the operation, in the following 11 days Israel arrested around 350 Palestinians,
including nearly all of Hamas'
West Bank leaders. Five Palestinian militants were killed during the military
operation. On 30 June, search teams found the bodies of the three missing teenagers
in a field north-west of Hebron.
They had apparently been killed shortly after their abduction. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a tough response to the killings. On August 20, 2014,
a Hamas
official, Salah al-Aruri, said that the organization's armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades,
was behind the kidnapping and murder. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal said that some Hamas members
had kidnapped and murdered the Israeli teenagers but stated that they were not
acting on orders from the Hamas leadership, which he said, were "not aware
of this action taken by this group of Hamas members in advance".
On 8 July 2014, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched ‘Operation Protective Edge’ against the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. Seven weeks of
Israeli air strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks, in addition to shelling and
fighting in the ground invasion and cross-border tunnel attacks, left more than 2,100 people dead,
most of them Palestinians.
The stated aim of the Israeli operation was to stop rocket fire from Gaza into
Israel, which non-Hamas factions had begun following the Israeli crackdown on
Hamas in the West Bank (sparked by the kidnapping and murder of 3 Israeli teenagers
by Hamas members, see above)), and which Hamas itself began, following an
Israeli airstrike on 6 July which killed seven Hamas militants in Khan Yunis.
On 17 July, the operation was expanded to a ground invasion with the stated aim
of destroying Gaza's tunnel system.
By 26 August, the IDF reported that Hamas,
Islamic Jihad
and other militant groups had fired 4,500 rockets
and mortars
from Gaza into Israel, while the IDF attacked 5,263 targets in Gaza; at least
34 known tunnels were destroyed and two-thirds of Hamas's 10,000-rocket arsenal
was used up or destroyed. Several ceasefires (including one on 5 August, during
which all Israeli soldiers were withdrawn from the Gaza Strip) fell apart or
expired. On 26 August, an open-ended ceasefire was announced. It seems to be
holding. As some Gazans began returning to their homes and rebuilding, the international community was faced with a
situation in which the current prospects for the two-state solution seem very
slim. On 25th September Hamas and Fatah signed a new agreement to
share power in governing Gaza, but this is not the first agreement of this kind
and the problem is reaching practical compromises in implementing this pact.
Between 2,000 and 2,143 Gazans were killed (including 495–578 children) and
between 10,895 and 11,100 were wounded, while 66 IDF soldiers, 5 Israeli
civilians and 1 Thai civilian were killed and 450 IDF soldiers and 80 Israeli
civilians were wounded. The Gaza Health Ministry, the UN and human rights groups
say 70–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israel states 50% were
civilians. On 5 August 2014
the United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) stated that
520,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (approximately 30% of its population)
may have been displaced, of whom 485,000 needed emergency food assistance and
273,000 were taking shelter in 90 UN-run schools. 17,200 Gazan homes were
totally destroyed or severely damaged, and 37,650 homes have suffered damage
but are still inhabitable. In Israel, an estimated 5,000to 8,000 citizens fled
their homes due to the threat of rocket and mortar attacks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict
According to Walla!, from
January 2015 until April 26, 172 attacks against the Jerusalem Border Police
and SWAT teams were recorded. 148 Molotov cocktails and 15 explosive devices
were thrown at Border Police, 1 shooting incident, 4 stabbing attempts or
attacks and 4 "car rampage" attacks (attempted or actualized) were
launched. Many policemen were injured in these clashes.
According to OCHA, from January 1 to 22 April 2015, at least 8,139 trees and
saplings planted by Palestinians were uprooted or vandalized by Israeli
settlers. Israeli search and arrest operations in the Palestinian territories,
which averaged 75 per week earlier, rose to 86 per week in the first five
months of 2015. According to the same source, averaging statistics from January
through to June, 2 Israelis were injured and, excluding settler assaults, 40
Palestinians were injured by Israeli forces, per week. In the Hebron
governorate alone from January to June, 550 Palestinians, among them 105
teenagers, were arrested, and 225 sentenced to administrative detention without
trial.However, the UN and US seemed ready to try again.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/
How much are the prospects for negotiation affected by other developments in
the area? IS is now present in the Sinai desert fighting Egypt’s forces. IS
aims to overthrow the Egyptian secular government, destroy Israel, and, although supported by some (ex-?) members
of Hamas, also intends to destroy Hamas itself. Given the collapse of Syria and
Lebanon’s preoccupation with the civil war in Syria and the wave of refugees,
does this turmoil represent a growing radicalization of the Arab world and a
threat to Israel’s existence, or an opportunity for Israel to create informal
alliances with secular governments and parties in the area that now see Israel
as the lesser threat? IS negotiating a settlement with the Palestinians now
less or more urgent?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/un-chief-tries-to-breathe-fresh-life-into-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-hopeful-israeli-palestinian-talks-can-be-relaunched/http://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-officials-reject-netanyahus-call-for-renewal-of-peace-talks/http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-willing-to-meet-abbas-for-peace-talks-right-now/
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_Gaza_Agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping_and_murder_of_Mohammed_Abu_Khdeir http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict http://online.wsj.com/articles/cease-fire-between-israel-and-hamas-holds-1409140924
also:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/11/united-nations-delays-palestinian-statehood-vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19746994
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49198865
For the current level of international recognition of Palestine see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine http://www.timesofisrael.com/ban-ki-moon-urges-arab-states-to-push-for-renewed-israeli-palestinian-negotiations/ http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=42551&Cr=palestin&Cr1#.UFYMFa502mA
Italia - Con
il Ministro Avidgor Lieberman, che ha invitato Gentiloni ad una prossima visita
in Israele, è stata confermata la solidità dei rapporti bilaterali e
l’interesse reciproco a svilupparli ulteriormente. Il Ministro Gentiloni ha
auspicato che possa essere presto ripreso il negoziato per il processo di pace
in Medio Oriente e ha riaffermato la tradizionale posizione dell’Italia che
auspica nuovi passi verso l’unica soluzione possibile che è quella dei due Stati. http://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2014/11/20141103_telminpolisralb.html 3/11/2014
Mar. 16, 2015 - Israeli
Prime Minister Netanyahu Says No to Two-State Solution on Eve of Election
"Under pressure on the eve of a surprisingly close election, Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Monday repeated his appeal to
right-wing voters, declaring that if he was returned to office he would never
establish a Palestinian state... The statement reversed Mr. Netanyahu’s endorsement
of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a 2009 speech at
Bar Ilan University, and fulfilled many world leaders’ suspicions that he was
never really serious about peace negotiations."
New York Times "Netanyahu Says No to Statehood for
Palestinians," nytimes.com, Mar. 16, 2015
However, in a Mar. 19 interview with NBC News
Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Andrea Mitchell, Netanyahu claimed that his
pre-election statement was not a reversal of policy, but rather a statement
about what is realistically possible in the current situation. In the
interview, Netanyahu said, "I don't want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable,
peaceful two-state solution. But for that, circumstances have to change."
May 13, 2015 - The
Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New Treaty "The
Vatican officially recognized the state of Palestine in a new treaty finalized
Wednesday, immediately sparking Israeli ire and accusations that the move hurt
peace prospects.
Associated Press (AP)"Vatican Recognizes State of Palestine in New
Treaty," ap.org, May 13, 2015
Oct. 19, 2015 - Since the beginning of the month, at least
nine Israelis have been killed, along with 41 Palestinians, 20 of whom Israeli
authorities have identified as attackers. The remaining 21 Palestinians died in
clashes with Israeli troops… The violence has been
dominated by Palestinian teenagers stabbing Israelis in so-called ‘lone wolf’
attacks and without the political and organizational support that existed
during the first and second intifadas."
ABC
News, "What's behind Escalating Violence in Israel," abcnews.go.com,
Oct. 19, 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
October 2017
The Palestinians form a unity government.
Israel
will not negotiate with a Palestinian unity government if Hamas is involved.
On 7 December 2017 Donald Trump defied
overwhelming global opposition by recognising Jerusalem as the capital of
Israel, but insisted that the highly controversial move would not derail his
own administration’s bid to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Two days
later at the UN ambassadors from Britain, France, Italy, Japan, China and more
warned that Trump’s announcement that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as
Israel’s capital is misguided or a threat to peace. Some called it reckless. Other
envoys blasted the U.S. shift as a violation of past U.N. Security Council
resolutions or possibly of international law.
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-us-officially-recognises-jerusalem-as-israeli-capital-11159134
http://www.straitstimes.com/world/clashes-continue-as-us-jerusalem-move-condemned-at-un
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8uxjt5SdB4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc1d30mCHbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7_HKU01vKE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfqvHzXkfoM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqv6-Aq0ZAw
Italy http://parstoday.com/it/news/italia-i125987-medio_oriente_alfano_non_possiamo_retrocedere_da_soluzione_dei_due_stati 05/12/17
UN position on
Israel and the Palestinians – the two-state solution remains the only
acceptable basis for a settlement
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1056412
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1576851/middle-east
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1026871
https://www.un.org/press/en/2015/gapal1336.doc.htm
Notes for an essay
Why is a peace
settlement to the conflict so important to the international community?
1) The perceived
threat that this conflict poses to the stability of the Middle East and to oil supplies 2)
The way it affects the West’s image in the Arab world (and in the broader
Muslim world)
3) As
a measure of the effectiveness of the UN in resolving international disputes (a
basic part of its mandate) and responding to a humanitarian crisis
Possible preconditions or sticking
points for the launching of serious negotiations (this should be updated in
line with current developments)
1) Mutual
recognition of both people’s right to an independent state (the international
community and the Quartet’s two-state solution). Moreover, Israel wants
recognition specifically as a Jewish state (homeland).
(Some commentators argue that the
two-state solution is making no progress and think the Palestinians should give
up claims to an independent state, ask for unification of the occupied
territories with Israel and for full
Israeli citizenship for all Palestinians, thus threatening the Jewish
popular majority within Israel. The argument goes that Israel would feel so
threatened by such a prospect that it would be forced to make concessions on a
two-state solution. See ‘The Death and Life of the Two-State Solution by Grant Rumley
and Amir Tibon in Foreign Affairs July/August 2015. However, whether this is a
realistic prospect is unclear. Certainly, it is not the position of the
international community or the Palestinian movement at the moment).
2) A truce and then a lasting
cease-fire, a cessation of terrorist attacks and acts of violence to provide
time and the right atmosphere to negotiate.
3) A further good-will release
of prisoners (this happened with the exchange in 2011 of an Israeli soldier
captured by Hamas for about 1000 Palestinian prisoners. More prisoners were
released during the 2013-14 negotiations.
4) A freeze on Israeli
settlement building (accepted by the US but no longer by the Israeli
government) and a halt to the intimidation and increasing violence
by Israeli settlers. These remain perhaps the Palestinians’ main preconditions
for real talks
5) A reduction in Israeli
road blocks and military outposts on the West bank
6) Israel refuses to
negotiate with a 'unified' Palestinian government which includes Hamas because
Hamas refuses to recognise Israel's right to exist. Israel also now wants
recognition as a specifically Jewish state.
Other
elements in a potential negotiation
1) Perhaps the model should
be the 1998 Northern Ireland Peace Agreement. This would mean starting with the
moderates, for the Palestinians, the President and government of the PA (Al
Fatah, which recognises Israel), in the hope of making progress and so
involving more hard-line groups (Hamas, which does not recognise Israel) later.
However, Fatah and Hamas are now cooperating again and to deal with one and not
the other might be difficult. It is also difficult to see the current
government of Israel as ‘moderate’ compared with the Yitzhak
Rabin government of the 1990s which negotiated the Oslo Accords.
2) The need for widespread
popular support and consensus building before, during and after talks.
3) Pressure and support from
the international community, the Quartet, and Arab countries, to start and make
real progress with negotiations
4) Should negotiation include
other Arab states and other issues (e.g. Jordan and Lebanon as hosts to many
Palestinian refugees, Syria because of the Israeli occupation of the Golan
Heights or is this now a dead issue)?
5) External factors – how have
the protests and demands for greater freedom of the Arab Spring(s) and the overthrow
of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the civil war in Syria
and unrest in Lebanon affect the chances of a peace deal? Will the emergence of
the new governments in Tunisia and Egypt make a settlement more or less likely?
Could the civil war in Syria lead to a general conflict in the area involving Israel?
What will be the effect of the defeat of Islamic State in Syria, and Iraq and
now of its presence in the Sinai desert? Will this mean a dispersal of radical
Islamist groups into neighbouring states? Will Israel launch a pre-emptive
strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities? Is anti-American feeling in the Arab
world (for example, the killing of the US ambassador to Libya in Benghazi in
September 2012) now so strong that the US can no longer act as a mediator?
Israel
continues to see the Iran Nuclear Deal Framework
of April 2015 (between the Islamic Republic of Iran
and a group of world powers: the P5+1,
the permanent members of the United Nations Security
Council plus Germany,
plus the European Union)
as a mistake, a threat to the long-term balance of power in the Middle East and
a threat to its own existence. It welcomed the US withdrawal from the agreement
but is alarmed at the EU's position.
6) There seems to be little
space for negotiation on the status of Jerusalem at the moment, so this might have
to be the last question to deal with.
The main questions to be resolved
1) Borders: two states,
Israel, and a Palestinian state on the West Bank (the problem of the status of
the Gaza Strip and Hamas which controls it) Negotiations might begin with the
UN Green Line of 1949 and be based on progress
made in previous negotiations (e.g. Oslo Accords, 1993). This will also require
decisions on existing settlements and what would be done with the settlers (for
statistics on the rapidly rising number of settlers see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_settlement ) (estimated
figures, 350,000 in East Jerusalem and 400,000) on the West Bank and (2)
2) the status of Jerusalem,
which is claimed by both as their capital and has Holy sites belonging to
Judaism, Islam and Christianity. One example of the nature of the ongoing
dispute over settlements and future borders (and the way these issues are
intertwined with other aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) is the
Israeli government’s plans to build homes for 3,000 settlers in the area known
as E1, part of the internationally-recognised Palestinian inhabited
territories. The Israeli decision to go ahead with these plans seems to be a
response to the UN giving Palestine enhanced observer status and has been met with
widespread Palestinian protests. A settlement in the area would cut off Arab
East Jerusalem from the West Bank.
3) The political independence
and real economic viability of a Palestinian state – water resources, the
Israeli Defence barrier and the damage it did to the Palestinian economy, the
port of Gaza, removal of (some, most, all and when?) Israeli road blocks and
military outposts on the West Bank, aid from the IC, the UN, (the EU?) and rich
Arab states. This question has direct implications for (4)
4) Future security in the
area. This is the crucial issue for Israel, which sees a danger in dismantling
its defence barrier and then facing new terrorist attacks. Israel wants a peace
settlement which is accepted by all the Palestinians (and its Arab neighbours)
not with 75% of the Palestinians. Would a compromise also involve the temporary
maintenance of some Israeli road blocks and military outposts within the newly
created Palestinian state for a certain number of years as a guarantee of security
as the Israelis demand?
5)The ‘right of return’ for
descendants of the Palestinian refugees of the 1948 and 1967 wars (now
estimated at about 4 million people: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_right_of_return ). And
where would they return to?
a) Since 1948 many live in
refugee camps in neighbouring countries ( e.g. 1.9 million as refugees in
Jordan, although if one includes Jordanians citizens of Palestinian descent this
figure rises to 2.7 million, almost half the population of the country)
b) Many refugees claim the
right to return to places which are now in Israel, not just on the West Bank
c) Alternatives – settlement
on the West bank in the new Palestinian state? Or some form of economic compensation?
Could some Palestinians be allowed to return to Israel and become Israeli
citizens if they have documentary proof of land ownership in the past?
Conclusion
1) Today may
be a difficult moment compared to 20 or 30 years ago (the Oslo Accords, 1993, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords and the
Taba summit of 2001 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taba_Summit)
with a conservative Israeli
government, a fragile and still not fully united Palestinian leadership
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/9/palestinian-factions-agree-on-long-delayed-elections
and a radicalization
of positions and aspirations on both sides.
Realistically, it is hard to be very optimistic. In fact, some experts argue
that the Palestinians and the Arab world in general continue to regard Israel as
a ‘colonial’ outpost (presumably of the Westin general or the US), a foreign
imposition, and thus at a fundamental level they reject Israel’s right to
exist, or its right to exist as a specifically Jewish state, and therefore
question the basis of the two-state solution. The Israelis see the foundation
of Israel as their ‘return’ to their homeland after 1800 years,
and the creation of a necessary safe-haven for Jews after the pogroms of the 19th
century and the Holocaust of WWII. They often regard the Palestinians as simply
Arabs (who can therefore become citizens of any Arab state) rather than a
specific Arab people with legitimate aspirations to their own independent
homeland.
2) In any case, there is a
clear need for popular support for the peace process. Political leaders can
lead, but a successful peace process would require genuine and growing
consensus and support among both populations. Without that basis little
progress can be made, and it is not clear that there is a genuine desire for
peace at the popular level on either side at the moment, not if ‘genuine
desire’ means accepting the price of
compromise and making real concessions. In surveys a majority on both sides
says it favours peace, but each thinks it is the other side that must make concessions,
not their own.
4) The EU remains committed
to a 2-state solution
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/middle-east-peace-process_en
3) Link back to the start by
explaining the most recent moves by the international community, and the latest
news regarding negotiations or prospects for negotiations
e.g. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112542
Some other useful sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Palestinian_territories#Population
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugee#Refugee_statistics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_and_Muslim_countries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_process_in_the_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/09/16/3106996/palestinian-economic-protests-point-to-uncertain-future-for-pa-israel
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/07/05/palestinian-statehood-showdown-at-un/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/gilad-shalit-prisoner-swap-israel-prepares-for-the-captive-soldiers-release/2011/10/17/gIQAZ2lFsL_story.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_negotiations_between_Israel_and_the_Palestinians_(2010-2011)
Israel
declared its independence in May 1948 and was recognized by the USA and Soviet
Union in the same month (by Britain and France in January 1949, Italy in
February 1949, and Germany in September 1952). It was admitted to the UN in May
1949 under UNSC resolution 273.The Holocaust certainly
played a crucial role in determining the attitude of the West and Soviet Union,
and the UN’s recognition of Israel. Despite growing sympathy for the
Palestinians and sharp criticism of Israeli actions and intransigence over the
last 2 decades the EU continues to stand by Israel’s fundamental right to exist
in security and to be an accepted member of the international community and the
UN, and it supports the Road Map, sponsored by the quartet, which means direct
negotiations leading to a 2-state solution. It is not clear if the Oslo
Accord(s) would provide a starting point for negotiations or if the 2 sides would
prefer to start from scratch [ ripartire da zero].)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel
http://www.juancole.com/2015/04/worlds-recognize-palestine.html
http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/israel/press_corner/all_news/news/2012/20120819_en.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine#UN_member_states
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Position_on_Israeli_issues
http://eeas.europa.eu/mepp/index_en.htm
http://www.rt.com/news/236355-italy-vote-palestinian-state/
public opinion:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/jul08/WPO_IsPal_Jul08_packet.pdf
latest:
http://972mag.com/france-24-reports-on-israeli-palestinian-direct-negotiations/1165/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/israel-palestinian-talks_n_1235849.html
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/09/08/abbas-announces-another-un-bid-for-palestinian-statehood/
and for the events of the last year and the official French position:
http://www.franceonu.org/france-at-the-united-nations/geographic-files/middle-east/israel-palestine-378/article/israel-palestine
Israel's nuclear deterrence
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/israels-newest-and-most-advanced-submarine-is-their-las-1752459324
Negotiations
http://www.assopacepalestina.org/2017/06/negoziati-senza-fine/
more on the one-state solution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2015/08/palestine-israel-one-state-solution.html
https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-end-of-oslo-a-new-european-strategy-on-israel-palestine/
https://eeas.europa.eu/diplomatic-network/middle-east-peace-process_en
https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/02/1085922
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/26/us-assures-two-state-solution-for-israel-palestine-at-un
Demographics
for the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
Israel
In Israel on 31 January 2022 the total population is 9,450,000. That is a more than
10-fold
increase compared to when Israel
was founded in 1948. The overall population grew by 1.7% in
2021.
Of the Israeli population:
the Jewish population makes
up 6,998,000 (73.9%);
1,995,000
(21.1%) are Arabs;
and, those
identified as "others" (non-Arab Christians, Baha'i, various other
kinds of non-Orthodox
Jews and
Christians etc.) make up 5.0% of the population (456,000 people). In
addition to these
numbers,
there are approximately 170,000 people living in Israel who are neither
citizens nor
permanent
residents. Experts predict that the population of Israel will reach 10 million
by 2024 or
sooner.
As of 30 January 2020, there are about 130 government-approved
settlements, and 100 unofficial ones,
which are home to around 400,000 Israelis in the West Bank, with
an additional 200,000 Israelis residing in
12 neighborhoods in East Jerusalem.Israel welcomed approximately 40,000 new immigrants in 2018 with
most immigrants arriving in Israel from France, the Ukraine,
Russia, and the United States.
Of Israeli Jews, 44.3% self-identify as secular,
11% simply as religious, and 9% as ultra-Orthodox.
Those of European and
American ancestry make up about 2.2 million (36%) of the Jewish
population while Africans
fill out another 14.5% and Asians are 11.2%.
Out of the 15.2 million
Jewish people in the world, 46% reside in Israel.
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/newpop.html
In 2019:
there were 5,700,000 Jews in the US
In France 450,000
In Canada 392,000
In the UK 292,568
In Argentina 180,000
In Russia 165,000
In Australia 118,500
In Germany 118,000
In Brazil 92,600
In Italy 27,400
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-population-of-the-world
However, figures for the global and country by
country ‘Enlarged Jewish Population’ (a looser
definition based on ancestry and members of
Jewish households are much higher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country
see also: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Judaism/jewpop.html
The Palestinians
Total population
worldwide was an estimated 13 million in January 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians
Palestinian territories
total 4,816,503 in 2016, but probably 5,188,964 in March 2021
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/palestine-population
West Bank 2,935,368 (there are 19 UNRWA refugee camps with 228,560 Palestinian refugees, and 774,167
registered refugees in total)
Gaza 1,881,135 (there are 8 UNRWA refugee camps with 560,964 Palestinian refugees, and 1,276,929
registered refugees in total)
And 1,953,000 Arabs in Israel (of whom 60%
identify as Palestinians)
http://www.pcbs.gov.ps/Portals/_Rainbow/Documents/gover_e.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Palestinian_territories
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians
Global
total figure for Palestinians descended from refugees 4,950,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugees
refugees
in Jordan – an estimate including Jordanian citizens of Palestinian descent
2,175,000–3,240,000
(2017)
refugees
in Syria, 552,000 (2018) but where are they now? Perhaps 200,000 still in Syria
and 100,000 in Europe
refugees
n Lebanon 458,369 (2016)
in
Chile 500,000 (2009)
in Saudi Arabia 400,000 (2016)
in Qatar 295,000 (2016)
in
Iraq 57,000 (2009)
in
the US 255,000 (2009)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians
Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt
https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/jordan
https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/syria
https://www.unrwa.org/syria-crisis#Syria-Crisis-and-Palestine-refugees
Is it reasonable for Israel to insist on being a Jewish state? Let’s start
with another country:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholicism_in_Saudi_Arabia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Saudi_Arabia#Modern_Era
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/moriel-rothman/israel-is-not-a-jewish-state_b_1603422.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192614417586774.html
https://tikvahfund.org/uncategorized/the-jews-right-to-statehood/
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2011/9/30/why-israel-cant-be-a-jewish-state
and now
Israel, the Palestinians and the wider Muslim world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Israel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Israel_and_the_Palestinian_territories
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_citizens_of_Israel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeland_for_the_Jewish_people#Jewish_state_or_a_state_of_Jews.3F
http://forward.com/articles/157127/isn-t-israel-already-a-jewish-state/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution#Support_for_one-state_solution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Arab_world#Jordan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_exodus_from_Arab_lands
http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-egypts-islamists-must-respect-minorities/
http://www.iis.ac.uk/view_article.asp?ContentID=106331
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/23/henry-porter-muslim-unrest-prejudice
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_the_apartheid_analogy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/19/britain-duty-to-palestinian-people
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